Candlestick Analysis
EURAUD: Strong Bullish SignalsThere are clear confirmations of bullish momentum on the 📈EURAUD:
This is evident from the breakout above a resistance line in a bullish flag pattern and the formation of a confirmed change of character CHoCH on the 4-hour chart.
I believe that the market is likely to sustain its upward movement, with the next resistance level seen at 1.7300.
NZDJPY: Bearish Movement Confirmed 🇳🇿🇯🇵
All Yen pairs look bearish after the early morning BoJ interest
rate decision and press conference.
NZDJPY formed an inverted cup & handle pattern on a 4H
after a test of a key daily resistance.
High momentum bearish candle indicates a strong bearish sentiment.
I think that the price may drop at least to 86.2 level.
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USD/JPY: Bear Wedge and Pin Candle Flash Warning SignsThe ducks may be lining up for a resumption of the USD/JPY downtrend.
Firstly, it remains in a defined falling channel. Secondly, Tuesday’s reversal delivered a bearish pin candle, often seen around market tops. Thirdly, the rebound from last week’s lows resembles a bear wedge pattern, warning of a potential downside break and resumption of the bear trend.
Momentum indicators aren’t fully on board, with RSI (14) and MACD trending higher, so the case for initiating shorts is not yet a slam dunk. But it should be on the watchlist.
A break of the bear wedge would put a retest of 148.65 on the radar, with a move beyond that level opening the door for a possible flush towards 147.10, where buyers were lurking last week. If the price were to keep pushing higher and break channel resistance, the bearish bias would be invalidated.
As covered in the attached analysis, when it comes to risks around rates guidance from the Fed and BOJ later today, this scribe sees those for the former skewed towards a slightly more dovish outcome than market pricing, and a more hawkish tone from the BOJ.
Good luck!
DS
Solana Wave Analysis – 18 March 2025
- Solana reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 113.75
Solana cryptocurrency recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 134.65 (former support from the end of February), 20-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from the start of March.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star.
Given the widespread bearish sentiment across the cryptocurrency markets, Solana can be expected to fall to the next support level 113.75 (the former low of wave (2) from the start of March).
XRP Next Move !... $4 XRPUSD Ripple Just A Matter Of Time? $€£¥This space seems a bit quite now but if you liked XRPUSD / XRPUSDT at $3 what has changed now?
When the hype is around thats the time to be ⚠️ cautious IMO.
When there is little attention of the said market thats when 🟢SeekingPips🟢 likes to get to work.
⚠️This time is NO different⚠️
NOT SURE WHERE THE NEXT LOW WILL FORM❓️
ME NEITHER❗️❕️❗️
🟢 You don't need to know❗️ You just need to HAVE A PLAN ✅️
Long trade
1Hr TF overview
Trade Details:
Direction: Buy (Long)
Entry Price: 1.09370
Take Profit: 1.10467 (+1.00%)
Stop Loss: 1.09190 (-0.16%)
Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.09
Trade Analysis:
The Tokyo session transitioning into London based on the narrative of demand and supply seemed indicative of a buyside trade and the price action observed on the 1Hr TF.
Entry 15min TF
Excellent Break Out by Nifty. Will the momentum continue?Today the Nifty had a good leap after a lot of consolidation. The key question is will the momentum continue or FIIs will again take this opportunity to book profit. Today FII is on the net buying side after a long time. If the buying continues or even if FII remains neutral there is a good chance that we can see upside from here.
Key resistances for Nifty remain at 22857, 22921 and 22985. Above 22985 Nifty can gain more strength and may try to regain the levels of 23044, 23147 and 23249. 23404 as of now remains a mega resistance which is also the 200 days EMA of 200 days Father line. This zone as of now is little difficult to cross. Closing above 23404 can give might boost to the Bulls and a new Bull run can begin post closing above this point. Supports for Nifty at this juncture remain at 22726 (200 hours EMA or Father line of Hourly chart), 22594 and 22543. A closing below 22543 which is the Mother line support of the hourly chart or the (50 Hours EMA).
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Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Skeptic | XAU/USD Ready to Break Out? Key Long & Short Setups!Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic . Let’s kick off the week with an analysis of XAU/USD , which seems to be giving us a long trigger right now! Let’s break down the 1-hour time frame.
🔍 Market Overview:
The major trend on the daily is still uptrend , so it’s best to trade in the direction of the trend (long) . Last week, as per our analysis, we hit a new ATH and managed to break the resistance at 2954.74 .
📈 Current Situation:
After a brief consolidation in the 4-hour time frame, a new uptrend momentum seems to be kicking off, which could lead to another price surge and a potential new uptrend.
🚀 Long Setup:
Our riskier long trigger will be activated after breaking 2994.16 , and it looks like the current candle is about to break it.
For a safer position, we’ll wait for a breakout above 3002.71 .
📉 Short Setup:
A short position below 2968.43 could work, although the uptrend momentum is quite strong, so there’s a higher chance of hitting the stop loss .
💡 This week, we have plenty of setups, so make sure to catch all the analyses and stay prepared.
Until the next analysis—stay sharp and trade smart! 💪🔥
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Pullback From Resistance
Dow Jones Index looks bearish after a test of a key daily/intraday resistance.
An inverted cup & handle pattern on that on an hourly and a strong
intraday bearish momentum this morning leaves clear bearish clues.
I think that the market can retrace at least to 41580 support.
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Rotation to healthcare ?Analysis of NLBNPIT1YHG3 certificate: EXACT SCIENCES, VRTX, AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES
Article debut: 18 March 2025
The certificate is at justcertificate.com
As a general rule, "buy the rumors and sell the news" works in most cases, so we won't deny it, but reports of rotations to industries like healthcare persist. True? No need to know, as technical and quantitative analysis can provide guidance for our decisions.
Analyzing spot price relative to the exponential moving average in 200 periods (EMA) is a popular tool. This simple indicator shows how many companies have maintained the average price computed over 200 days, which technical analysts use to assess the state of interest in the stock. Not the most accurate method, but used by many, hence including us.
Use TradingView's stock screener to filter S&P 500 healthcare technology stocks (we get 61 across all healtcare industries) and then apply a price filter over the EMA for 200 days (22 companies). The ratio is about 40%, which is in line with the index, and 10% higher than Information Technology and 12% higher than Consumer Discretionary. We were neither hyped nor market-disinterested. A good certificate may be profitable if a sector's side phase.
We can activate industry filters using JustCertificate and have about 300 healthcare-related certificates. We limit the underlying certificate stocks to three to avoid including other sectors as much as possible, and there are about 250 active certificates.
The NLBNPIT1YHG3 is in my wallet, and now it costs around 86 euros with Exact Sciences as the "worst of" and less than 30% margin above the coupon barrier. Exact Sciences develops cancer detection and prevention tests. More than a pharmaceutical title, it can be considered in biotech, with volatility closer to Nasdaq stocks.
It is a contrastive situation. The weekly candlestick chart shows that at the time of certificate issuance in the retail market, Exact Sciences was down nearly 60% from its 2021 peak and was in the midst of a major head and shoulders that broke the master Point Of Control (POC) of 64 USD, causing the first support area to drop to 45 USD, which matched the second POC that stopped the drop. From there, the sock tried to reach the master POC twice and failed to close the gap when the company missed earnings on November 4, 2024, indicating that sellers dominate the 65 USD liquidity area.
The price is currently at 45 USD at the secondary POC, with a weekly shadowed candle that may indicate buyers contrasting sellers in that price range. The title moves on a clear descending trend line with declining max prices but min prices compression from 32 USD. Fair value might be 45–61 USD among the two POC.In fact, 12 statistical models by Investing.com place fair prices around $50.
As always, your risk tolerance and portfolio benchmark determine your appetite forr this certificate. Based on my criteria, the certificate is attractive with a 20% return, 11.4% cumulative cedolar flow, and 40% potential current entrate, as estimated by JustCertificate.
BTCUSD Hourly market AnalysisBITSTAMP:BTCUSD On the H1 time frame, if we consider the trend line going from top to bottom, which indicates a bearish trend, on the other hand, the RSI is currently at 47.98, indicating a decline below the midline. In the past, it has been moving sideways for a few days, which turned upward. Where there is liquidity on the upside, this also shows that Bitcoin is showing a bearish trend, we will consider selling.
Support and Resistance
Strong Support Zone : 76,660
Strong Resistance Zone : 92,700
Resistance Zone: 84,950
BTCUSD Sell Entry: 83,200
TP: 81,400
TP: 79,400
TP: 76,600
SL: 84,950
Mastering MACD- Complete Guide- 10 ways to trade itThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a versatile indicator that can help traders navigate the markets with precision. From trend identification to momentum assessment, the MACD provides multiple actionable insights. In this educational post, we’ll explore the key ways to use MACD effectively, with an example illustration accompanying each strategy.
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1. Signal Line Crossovers
The most common use of MACD is the signal line crossover, which identifies potential shifts in market momentum:
• Bullish Signal: When the MACD line (fast-moving) crosses above the signal line (slow-moving), it suggests upward momentum is increasing. This can be an entry signal for a long trade. Bullish crossovers often occur after a period of consolidation or a downtrend, signaling a reversal in market sentiment.
• Bearish Signal: When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it signals downward momentum, often triggering a short-selling opportunity. Bearish crossovers can occur during retracements in an uptrend or at the start of a bearish reversal.
How to Use: Look for confirmation from price action or other indicators, such as a breakout above a resistance level for a bullish signal or a breakdown below support for a bearish signal. It's essential to avoid acting solely on a crossover; consider volume (stocks, crypto), candle stick formations and other market conditions.
Example: A bullish crossover on the daily chart on TRADENATION:XAUUSD indicates a potential buying opportunity as the price begins to rise. Add a stop-loss below recent lows to manage risk and look for a 1:2 risk:r eward in the next resistance.
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2. Zero Line Crossovers
The MACD’s zero line acts as a boundary between bullish and bearish momentum, making it a valuable trend confirmation tool:
• Above Zero: When the MACD line moves above the zero line, it confirms an uptrend, as the fast-moving average is above the slow-moving average. Sustained movement above zero often indicates a strong bullish trend.
• Below Zero: A MACD line below zero reflects a downtrend, indicating bearish market conditions. Persistent movement below zero confirms bearish momentum.
How to Use: Use the zero line crossover to validate trades based on other signals, such as candlestick patterns or trendline breaks. The crossover can act as a second layer of confirmation for existing trade setups.
Example: MACD on a crypto pair crosses above the zero line, confirming the start of a new bullish trend. Traders can combine this with volume analysis to ensure strong market participation.
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3. Histogram Analysis
The histogram represents the distance between the MACD line and the signal line, offering insights into momentum:
• Expanding Histogram: Indicates strengthening momentum in the direction of the trend. Larger bars show increasing dominance of bulls or bears.
• Contracting Histogram: Suggests weakening momentum, signaling a possible reversal or consolidation. Smaller bars indicate a loss of trend strength.
How to Use: Monitor the histogram for early signs of momentum shifts before a crossover occurs. The histogram can act as a leading indicator, providing advanced warning of potential changes in price direction.
Example: A shrinking histogram in a forex pair signals that the bullish momentum is losing steam, warning traders of a possible retracement. This can be a cue to tighten stop-loss levels or take partial profits. Conversely, an expanding histogram during a breakout confirms the strength of the move.
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4. Identifying Divergences
MACD divergences are powerful tools for spotting potential reversals:
• Bullish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the MACD forms a higher low, signaling weakening bearish momentum. This often precedes a trend reversal to the upside.
• Bearish Divergence: Happens when the price makes a higher high, but the MACD forms a lower high, indicating diminishing bullish strength. This suggests a potential reversal to the downside.
How to Use: Combine divergence signals with support or resistance levels to enhance reliability. Divergences are most effective when spotted at major turning points in the market.
Example: On a TRADENATION:EURUSD chart, a bearish divergence signals an upcoming price reversal from an up trend to a down trend.
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5. Trend Confirmation
MACD confirms trends by staying consistently above or below the zero line:
• Above Zero: Indicates a strong uptrend. Look for pullbacks to enter long trades. The longer the MACD remains above zero, the stronger the trend.
• Below Zero: Reflects a persistent downtrend. Use rallies as opportunities to short. A sustained period below zero reinforces bearish dominance.
How to Use: Use MACD’s trend confirmation alongside other trend-following tools like moving averages or Ichimoku clouds. Ensure that market conditions align with the broader trend.
Example: Combining MACD trend confirmation with moving averages helps traders stay on the right side of the trend in a stock market index. For example, buy when both MACD and a 50-day moving average indicate an uptrend. Exit trades when the MACD begins to cross below zero or shows a divergence.
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6. Overbought and Oversold Conditions
Although MACD is not traditionally an overbought/oversold indicator, extreme deviations between the MACD line and the signal line can hint at stretched market conditions:
• Overbought: When the MACD line is significantly above the signal line, it may indicate a price correction is imminent. This often occurs after an extended rally.
• Oversold: When the MACD line is well below the signal line, it suggests a potential rebound. Such conditions are common following sharp sell-offs.
How to Use: Monitor extreme readings in conjunction with oscillators like RSI for added confidence. Look for reversals near key support or resistance levels.
Example: An extended bearish move with a large MACD-signal line gap warns traders of a potential price correction. This can signal an opportunity to exit. Pair this observation with a bullish candlestick pattern to confirm the move (in this example morning star)
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7. Combining MACD with Other Indicators
MACD works best when paired with complementary indicators to provide a more comprehensive market analysis:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Use RSI to confirm momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands: Validate price breakouts or consolidations with MACD signals.
• Support and Resistance: Use MACD signals around key levels for confluence.
How to Use: Wait for MACD signals to align with other indicator readings to improve accuracy. Cross-validation reduces false signals and increases confidence in trades.
Example: A bearish MACD crossover near a key resistance level reinforces a short-selling opportunity.
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8. Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Using MACD across different timeframes strengthens trade signals and provides context:
• Higher Timeframe: Identify the broader trend to avoid trading against the market. For instance, if the daily chart shows a bullish MACD, focus on long trades in lower timeframes.
• Lower Timeframe: Pinpoint precise entries and exits within the higher timeframe’s trend. The MACD on lower timeframes can help fine-tune timing.
How to Use: Align MACD signals on both higher and lower timeframes to confirm trade setups. This alignment minimizes the risk of false signals.
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9. Customizing MACD Settings
Traders can tailor MACD settings to suit different trading styles and timeframes:
• Shorter Periods: Provide more sensitive signals for scalping or day trading. Shorter settings react quickly to price changes but may generate more false signals.
• Longer Periods: Produce smoother signals for swing trading or position trading. Longer settings are less responsive but more reliable.
How to Use: Experiment with different settings on a demo account to find what works best for your strategy. Adjust settings based on the volatility and nature of the asset.
Example: A scalper uses a 5, 13, 6 MACD setting to capture quick momentum shifts in the market, while a swing trader sticks with the standard 12, 26, 9 for broader trends. Compare results across different markets to refine the approach.
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10. Crossovers or Divergence at Key Levels
Combining MACD crossovers with price action levels enhances the reliability of trade signals:
• Horizontal Levels: Use MACD signals to confirm reversals or breakouts at support and resistance levels. Crossovers near these levels are often more reliable.
• Fibonacci Retracements: You can combine MACD with retracement levels to validate potential entries or exits. Confluence with retracements adds weight to the signal.
How to Use: Wait for MACD signals to align with key price levels for higher probability trades. Confirmation from candlestick patterns or volume (stock and crypto) adds further credibility.
Example: A bullish MACD divergence aligns with a strong support level, signaling a strong buy setup. Add confirmation with a candlestick reversal pattern, such as a piercing pattern in our case, to enhance precision.
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Conclusion:
The MACD indicator’s flexibility makes it a must-have tool for traders of all styles. By mastering these strategies and integrating them in your trading, you can elevate your trading decisions.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
GBPUSD LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Daily and Weekly AOi
Weekly Rejection from EMA
Daily rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 1.29000
H4 Candlestick rejection
Levels 3.45
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.