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Candlestick Analysis

USDJPY – Potential Volatility AheadUSDJPY started the week with a 1.3% fall on Monday, where it fell from opening levels around its weekly highs at 143.88, to a low at 141.92 and has since stayed relatively quiet. However, that could all change as we move through towards Friday, as FX markets move into a 3-day period packed with important scheduled events. Risk sentiment towards US assets, and USDJPY in particularly, could be impacted by todays preliminary US Q1 GDP release at 1330 BST, which could indicate whether the US economy experienced a bigger slowdown at the start of 2025 than initially anticipated. Then, later in the day the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE Index is released at 1500 BST, and this is followed by the earnings updates from US technology giants Microsoft and Meta later in the evening. If that wasn’t enough to potentially increase USDJPY volatility, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will post its interest rate decision early on Thursday morning. Although no change is expected due to the current uncertain tariff impacted climate and on-going trade deal negotiations with the US, the press conference led by BoJ Governor Ueda could contain some market moving commentary. This all culminates on Friday’s US Non-farm Payrolls update at 1330 BST, where all eyes may well be focused on the unemployment rate print, currently 4.2%, to see if the US labour market is weakening, which if it is, could open the possibility of Fed rate cuts. Technical Update: 144.06 Resistance Holds Latest Recovery Having approached 139.58, the September 16th 2024 low trade, USDJPY has seen a recovery in price. However it could be argued, this appears a reaction to what were likely over-extended downside conditions, in place after the 7.50% decline from 151.21, the March 28th 2025 high. Importantly, latest price strength has been held and so far, reversed by 144.06, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of March 28th to April 22nd weakness, which traders are likely to continue to focus on, as a potential resistance. The BoJ announcement and data releases this week have potential to be important sentiment drivers for USDJPY, and we must be aware of support and resistance levels that may help us gauge the next direction of future price moves. Resistance Levels: As we have said, so far, recent recovery themes have been unable to break above 144.06 retracement resistance, which will likely be an area that needs to give way on a closing basis to suggest possibilities of a more extended phase of price strength. While much will depend on the market’s reaction to up and coming events and future price trends, 144.06 closing breaks might suggest scope towards 145.43 the higher 50% Fibonacci level, even 146.80, the 62% retracement. Support Levels: Having seen Monday’s decline, price activity is back to what might be a support focus for traders at 142.00, equal to half recent strength. Closing breaks of 142.00 may be an indication of potential for further declines, although it is possible the 139.58 September 16th 2024 low may need to give way on a closing basis to suggest possibilities of increasing downside pressure on price. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
Kiwi in Trouble? Momentum Turns as NZD/USD Tests SupportTraders should be alert to a potential downside break in NZD/USD. Sitting in a descending triangle and having printed a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday, a clean break below .5930 would generate a setup where shorts could be established with a stop above the level for protection. The 200-day moving average screens as an initial target, with .5854 another after that. Bullish momentum is waning with RSI (14) trending lower while MACD is curling lower. The momentum signal is therefore more neutral than bullish, putting increased emphasis on price action near-term. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
USDCHF short: Sellers Getting Ready to DominateAfter a strong impulse from buyers, we saw exhaustion near the highs. Price retraced to a major support zone, but instead of a strong bounce, we got a tight, controlled accumulation range. the higher timeframe, i.e 4H is in a strong downmove What’s interesting is the structure within that box: the breakout attempts are weak, volatility is contracting, and there’s a noticeable lack of bullish follow-through—just coiling. Smart money doesn’t chase—they trap. This triangle near key support is exactly where larger players hide intentions behind "indecision." But to me, the silence screams. This doesn’t look like preparation for a markup—it feels like a setup for distribution under the disguise of consolidation. I’m anticipating a sellers' takeover. Entry Idea: Short on breakdown of triangle structure or on a faker as shown on the chart Stop: Above false breakout wick Target: Near 0.80408 (based on prior imbalance + clean levels below) Risk-reward speaks for itself. Let’s see if the tape reveals what I believe it’s been hiding in plain sight.
Short
by theeOperator90
No fear of retracement, continue to be long on goldFundamentals: 1. First, focus on Trump and the Fed’s dynamics; 2. Pay attention to whether the geopolitical conflicts escalate, including the situation between India and Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine, and the situation between the United States and Iran, etc. Technical aspects: Gold fell after touching 3330, but it is obvious that the retracement space of gold is being compressed. The lowest price of gold only fell back to 3313, and it did not even make any attempt below 3310. With the continuous consolidation and strengthening of the support in the 3310-3300 area, the double bottom structure and the arc bottom form a technical resonance in the short term. Gold should still have room to continue to rise. I expect that gold is likely to continue to rebound and extend to the 3350-3360 area. Trading strategy: It is possible to consider going long on gold again after gold falls back to the 3315-3305 area, and expect gold to rise above 3350 as expected!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
Let’s continue to be long on gold and keep winning!Fundamentals: 1. Focus on the performance of US economic data and the dynamics of the Federal Reserve; Technical aspects: At present, gold has failed to fall below the key area of ​​3300 many times during the retracement process, further strengthening the short-term structural support and strengthening the market's recognition of the effectiveness of its structural support. Moreover, gold may still maintain a volatile market before the NFP market. Due to the cautious attitude of the market, it is difficult for a unilateral trend to appear before the NFP market. Short term trading strategies: As in the two recently updated trading views, the trading strategy of long gold in the 3310-3300 area is still effective! Looking forward to gold rebounding to 3325 or even higher!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
Don’t be afraid of pullbacks, we can still go long on goldFundamentals: 1. First, pay attention to the dynamics of Trump and the Federal Reserve; 2. Pay attention to whether the geopolitical conflicts escalate, including the situation between India and Pakistan, Russia and Ukraine, and the situation between the United States and Iran. Technical aspects: Compared with yesterday, although the bullish momentum is weak, it has not fallen below the support of the 3005-2995 area, and even failed to fall below 3000. In addition, as gold fluctuates and falls, there is a large amount of buying funds entering the market in the short term. In the recent short-term structure, gold has built a very obvious turning point near the 3300 area. Therefore, gold may still rebound to above 3330 before NFP. Short-term trading strategy: You can still consider continuing to go long on gold in the 3310-3300 area, TP: 3325-3335
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steffen_Schade
Nifty Analysis EOD - April 29, 2025🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD - April 29, 2025🔴 One more day passed under uncertainty... Indecision takes the driver’s seat. 📈 Market Summary Nifty opened on a positive note at 24,370, gaining 42 points, and swiftly climbed to an intraday high of 24,457.65. But the enthusiasm didn’t last long — sellers stepped in and pushed it down, filling the opening gap. The index found support near 24,290, and attempted a bounce, but once again failed to clear the critical 24,330–24,360 resistance zone. 📌 Intraday 5 Min Time FrameChart The rest of the session saw price action trapped within a narrow 70-point range — a frustrating day for breakout traders or option buyers. 🔹 Impatient option buyers may have been trapped, stuck in hopes of a breakout. 🔹 Patient traders probably stayed away. 🔹 Scalpers and option sellers — this was your playground today. 📌 75 Min Time FrameChart On the 75-minute chart, once again, rejection is clearly visible from the 24,330 ~ 24,360 zone. Until we see a decisive close above 24,365, this zone will continue to command respect in our trade plans. 📌 Daily Time Frame Chart 🕯 Daily Candle Structure Candle Type: Spinning Top — a classic indecision candle OHLC: Open: 24,370.70 High: 24,457.65 Low: 24,290.75 Close: 24,335.95 Change: +7.45 points (+0.03%) 🔍 Candle Breakdown: Real Body: Small red body of -34.75 pts (close < open) → Indicates lack of strong directional move. Upper Wick: 86.95 pts Lower Wick: 79.95 pts This candlestick reflects market hesitation, especially significant after a strong uptrend. Bulls and bears fought for control, but neither side won convincingly. 🧠 What the Spinning Top Tells Us: Appears after a strong move → Suggests loss of momentum or possible pause Small body + long wicks = Indecision Needs confirmation in the next session 🔮 What Next? Today’s spinning top doesn’t give a clear directional cue. However, context matters: A close above CPR and previous session tilts the bias slightly bullish. Bullish scenario: A breakout above 24,460 may resume the upward trend. Bearish scenario: A breakdown below 24,040 could open the door for a pullback. As always — trade with preparation, not prediction. ⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update ATR: 326.39 IB Range: 166.9 (Medium IB) Market Structure: Imbalanced Trade Highlights: Positional Trade: Long Triggered Yesterday 15:20 – 1:2 Target Achieved Intraday: No trade triggered during the session 📈 Index Performance Snapshot Nifty 50: +7 Points (+0.03%) Bank Nifty: -42 Points (-0.07%) Nifty 500: +11 Points (+0.05%) Midcap: +148 Points (+0.27%) Smallcap: +62 Points (+0.37%) 🔍 Key Levels to Watch 🛑 Resistance Zones: 24,330 ~ 24,360 (Immediate hurdle) 24,457 (Today’s High) 24,480 ~ 24,540 (24,500 psychological level inside this zone) 24,800 🛡 Support Zones: 24,290 (Today’s Low) 24,190 ~ 24,225 (Immediate support) 24,120 24,050 24,000 ~ 23,950 23,820 23,710 ~ 23,660 23,500 23,410 ~ 23,370 23,215 💭 Final Thoughts Another day where the market teased both bulls and bears alike. But remember — uncertainty is not your enemy; it’s your signal to slow down. When the candle speaks in spinning tops, the trader listens in silence. Discipline and patience are still your best tools, especially when the market isn't shouting direction clearly. Tomorrow is the Weekly expiry — so prepare for volatility and don’t let noise disrupt your clarity. Your trade setup is your edge — trust it. ✏️ Disclaimer: This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
USD/JPY(20250429)Today's AnalysisMarket news: The U.S. Treasury Department raised its second quarter debt forecast to $514 billion. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The "X Day" for the debt ceiling issue will be announced soon. Technical analysis: Today's long-short boundary: 142.62 Support and resistance levels: 144.52 143.81 143.35 141.89 141.43 140.72 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 142.62, consider buying, the first target price is 143.35 If the price breaks through 141.89, consider selling, the first target price is 141.43
Long
by Toml1314
1
GBPUSD - End Of The Bullish Gravy Train?With a strong bullish rally throughout 2025, it is considered 'stupid' to bet against the trend. As the famous saying goes, 'the trend is your friend' and to a certain extent, it is true. But during the time of bullish price action, there is a minor retracement that occurs that allow smart money to buy at a lower price and a scenario like this is most likely going to play out going into the next weeks trading as I am seeing weakness across the board with Dollar Index and EURUSD. 1.32340 is my 1st point of interest
Short
by LegendSince