MARKET CONTEXT #2 I 12/12📌 Market Context
Price is currently trading around the highest-volume area of the session — specifically the POC zone around 4,275–4,276 and the VAH zone around 4,286.
This is a high-liquidity region where strong indecision often appears before the market chooses its next direction.
The short-term trend remains bullish, supported by the rising trendline.
Price is testing the VAH, a zone where buyers previously showed strength but where sellers often step in.
The dense Volume Profile above current price shows the market is preparing for either a breakout or a strong rejection.
📌 Price Scenarios
🔵 Scenario 1: Break Above VAH → Bullish Continuation
If price breaks above 4,286 with strong volume:
Next upside targets:
4,295
4,305
This scenario follows the current trend.
A clean H1 close above VAH confirms buyer dominance.
🔴 Scenario 2: Rejection From VAH → Return to POC
If price reacts negatively and gets pushed down from 4,286:
Expect a retest of:
POC zone 4,275–4,276
If POC breaks, the next downside targets are:
VAL zone 4,218–4,220
This scenario happens when buyers weaken or if short-term bearish pressure enters the market.
🟡 Scenario 3: Trendline Break → Deeper Correction
If the trendline is broken:
It signals real weakness from buyers.
Price may drop toward:
4,230
4,218 (VAL)
Further: 4,200 – 4,198
This scenario aligns with a deeper correction after the previous strong upward move.
📌 Summary
Price is sitting right at the key resistance zone (VAH), which will decide the next direction.
Overall trend: bullish, but currently testing a heavy distribution zone.
Two important areas to watch:
4,286 (VAH) → breakout or rejection
4,275 (POC) → if held, buyers remain strong
Reactions around these two zones will give the clearest trading signals.
