Coffe fundamental analysis-The strong increase in coffee prices is due to the strengthening of BRL and the fear of frost
-The Brazilian hurricane delayed harvest, which could lead to a deterioration in crop quality
-Coffee consumption has risen to historic highs, but it is not yet visible at coffee bars
-Farmers receive only 10% of the final consumer price, so they don't get too much from growing demand
-In contrast, large coffee makers such as Nestle or Starbucks generate huge profits
-This year, the International Coffee Organization ( ICO ) reduced the surplus by 7.5% to 3.4 million bags.
-From the market situation we can see that long positions increased while short positions decreased
-Coffe stocks in American ports fell, a similar situation in 2013 followed by a strong coffee exchange rally
-Farmers receive only 10% of the wholesale price of coffee . Current low prices may cause some South American farmers to collapse. In the long run, this can support a rise in coffee prices.
-After several months of coffee reserves in American ports, this may remind us of the situation in 2013 and 2014.
-I set my first tp at 120, second at 125, i show only my second tp at my chart, but I think you can set to 150 or more.
Coffee_trading
High Probability Setup on Coffee with Volume ProfilePlease note Swing or Trend trading on Futures product may require maintaining position beyond Futures Contract expiration.
www.latimes.com
An older articles but relevant as there are 1-2 years price lag due to the natural of supply and demand of coffee global supply chain.
thecoffee.blog
Coffee reaches accumulation levelsCoffee is trading near multi year horizontal support of 95 cents. While excessive supply and falling Brazilian real crushed the prices, there is ray of hope ahead. With price almost reaching 95 level which seems safe accumulation level, there can be gains in coming months. Farmers in Brazil are reducing coffee cultivation area will lead reduction in inventories in coming months. Price hovering near critical long term support risk to reward is very low for investing in coffee for some months.
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'BUY' AND STOCK UP ON COFFEE, WATCH IT GROW FOR YEARS TO COME!Thought i would not find a market more promising for the future than platinum but i've been proven otherwise. Coffee is lower than it has ever been in it's life cycle and can only imagine this is the end of downtrend and may form a wick around 1.0100 where expected to bottom out and start headed upwards. Do not miss out on a great buying up opportunity and watch your investment grow in years to come.
I bought in with a relatively small buy and watching market closely waiting for trend reversal confirmation before adding a larger buy.
I suggest working on the monthly view (1M) timeframe, using the MACD, Stoch RSI and CM_Ultimate_MA__MTF_V2 (combo of multiple indicators created by someone and accessible if you have pro account on tradingview).
Do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the possibility to hedge yourself, for more confident traders.
All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
Coffee C Futures possible medium term viewThis is what I expect to unfold over the coming weeks and months:
While Coffee is relatively muted of late, when it breaks out it normally breaks out strongly.
An ending 5th wave diagonal seems to be the rule rather than the exception the the end of any downward move. As always, it is difficult to count the ABCDE waves in a pattern like this - and there is no guarantee of an upwards breakout) but a breakout with good volume would seem worth buying (there are a couple of bear and bull traps evident already),
- There seems to be rather strong support acting on the floor of coffee for the past few years (vertical arrows) at around $100 - wave (C) could not extend 1:1 of wave (A) because that would mean negative prices.
- When prices drop this low, a strong bounce normally occurs,
- I would wait to trade this after it forms wave 1 and 2 up (at least a triangle trend-line break, retrace <100% of wave 1, and a break of the wave 1 extreme with conviction - then hang on for the ride. Due to the large volatility in its swift price increases, I would keep my stop-loss just below the start of the move until I can clearly identify the larger degree wave 2 and then wave 4.
This is only published for my own education and interest. I do not presently participate in a platform that will allow me to trade coffee but I will want to change this as its potential volatility is very attractive. This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental analysis. I am interested as to whether TA can stand on its own two feet.
I have noticed that I haven't being paying less for a cuppa as the commodity prices decline, so I also won't accept price increases when the underlying commodity price does jump.
Long Coffee area 100.00-120.00 with target 145.00 - 170.00 - 200Long Coffee area 100.00-120.00 with target 145.00 - 170.00 - 200.00
LONG SET UP IN COFFEE - DAILYHey there!
We had a breakout and a deep pullback, let's look for a buy set up!
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Hey todos,
Tuvimos breakout y un pullback profundo, busquemos una confirmación de compra!
Carlos
KC1! - COFFEE: CORRECTION BEFORE ONE MORE WAVE UP?The coffee has broken this small degree downtrend. Now it look overextended, so i'm expecting a correction before a potential wave up.
KC1! @ daily @ nearest (of 32 commodities) to it`s all-time highThis is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron