USOIL Sep 2022 W.1: F&T ForecastFundamental Forecast
-There are several stories unfolding in the energy space that should keep volatility elevated across energy markets, none of which are likely to find any permanent resolution anytime soon.
-Net-long positioning in the oil futures market remains near its yearly low, and its lowest level since August 2016.
-The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests that crude oil prices have a mixed trading bias
Technical Forecast
The trade ideas are derived from the both the monthly and weekly time frames. On the monthly, the price recently closed with a bearish candle below the mini double top neckline and in between the short-term moving averages, dis-confirming the bullish half a bat pattern and the moving averages bullish trend, in confirming a bearish drop for the 3rd Monthly Key Lvl/Monthly Neckline 3 together with the 21/50 moving averages.
Monthly Chart:
Weekly Chart rundown:
As you see in the first chart image, we're looking a 3 possible scenarios that will either confirm or disconfirm the bearish bias. Starting with how it will be rejected, the price will do so after it has bullish broke and retested the Weekly Neckline together with the 50 and 8 moving average. If it bounces off the 2nd Daily Key with a bearish candle formation that leads the price to bearish break and retest the 1st Weekly Key Lvl either on the current or lower time frame, that will trigger and fully confirm the bearish trend.
That's it for today. I hope you gained value from this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section. I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
Commodity
XAUUSD Outlook (30 August 2022)As the DXY found a steady climb to the upside, Gold reversed from the 1800 resistance level to trade significantly lower to find strong support at the 1720 price level.
Gold first rebounded at the 1730 level to restest the 50% fib and price level of 1765 before trading lower again.
Currently, as the price rebounds from the support of 1720, look for Gold to retest the 61.8% fib level and 1750 price level before a continuation of the downtrend.
If Gold breaks below the immediate support level of 1720, the next support level is at 1710, and a key support level at 1680.
Crude Kaput-edSo... Crude appears to have kaput and broke down quite a bit. Changed outlook, and the triangle has been readjusted and immediate target at 84 for the week ahead; and lower to 70 if the downside momentum continues.
With the long weekly candles (momentum), slicing through the weekly 55EMA, breaking down the support ranges, and alignment between the weekly and daily technical indicators; and in addition, a trend change pattern breakdown as well. These, together with this past week's breakdown, and the breakdown of the earlier triangle, more downside can be expected, as far down as 70.
That is what the chart is telling right now...
A very interesting, and admittedly, unexpected outcome for an energy commodity. Perhaps the spectre of a recession is that overwhelming.
Cotton Futures Reversal (MCX)The commodity has broken out long back and retested now, therefore may undergo a reversal rally. Trade is supported by Supports Nearby.
Risk Reward Ratio - 1.5:1
SL is placed below the support zone & the lower trendline. The target is placed near resistance.
ZW / WHEAT FUTURESAbout FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS .
---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying.
1-The Ukrainian war.
2- - dehydration.
3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation.
About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets.
About Psycho-
--- The short sellers start to take their money from wheat market because of a psycho- demand zone.
ZC / Corn futures ZC / CORN FUTURES
About FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.
---We are now in the corn-demand zone and there are many factors supporting the buying.
1-The Ukrainian war.
2- - dehydration.
3-The rise in the price of oil will lead to a rise in the price of transportation.
About TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
--- we look at (" Sell VOLUME ") and ("Sell pressure") is in decreasing , Volume drives all markets.
About Psycho-
--- The short sellers start to take their money from CORN market because of a psycho- demand zone.
Iron ore miners to Bull hard Hey guys,
Good time to load up on iron ore miners who have been sold off recently but i dont see prices falling below that major long term support line it has bounced off.
This chart is part of my thesis on the Inflation cycle to calm down over the next few months but as commodities like iron ore, copper, Oil etc start to bull again as people still have cash at hand to deploy as prices come back down. The Bullwhip effect has certainly started with retailers increasing stock by +25% while sales Revenue only increases by 3% something that confirms prices have started to fall but Major support being hit here and in other commodity showing people are back to buying and the commodities will lead the way back up starting the next wave of inflation that will hit a higher peak then current levels.
GOLD - Support Rejected✅ Now Approaching A Resistance!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis, we were looking for buy setups around the 1675 - 1700 support zone
Now What?
GOLD is approaching the upper orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
Moreover, the zone 1750 is a support turned into resistance.
Thus, the highlighted purple circle with the red arrow is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper orange trendline.
As per my trading style:
As GOLD approaches the upper purple circle, I will be looking for reversal bearish setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich