BTC 15m Update — post-breakdown bouncePrice is reacting off the 5m Bull FVG 88.4–88.6k after the breakdown below 89,945.
This bounce is mitigation until we reclaim structure.
Key levels on my chart: 90,319 / 89,945 / 89,450 / 89,279.
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Scenario ladder (with SL/TP)
A) Bull reclaim 89,279 (first breakdown-fail signal)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,279 + next 15m holds > 89,279
Entry: hold-close or first retest from above
SL: below the reclaim swing low (or conservative: below 88,600 FVG top)
TPs: 89,450 → 89,600 → 89,945 → 90,319
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B) Bull reclaim 89,450 (stronger shift)
Trigger: 15m close > 89,450 + hold
Entry: retest of 89,450 from above (best)
SL: below 89,279 (or conservative: below 88,600)
TPs: 89,945 → 90,319 (stretch: higher 1h FVG zone if you track it)
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C) Bear retest-fail at 89,279 (sell the bounce)
Trigger: price tags 89,279, then 15m closes back < 89,279 (rejection)
Entry: rejection close / next pullback
SL: above rejection high (or structural: above 89,450)
TPs: 88,600 / 88,400 / 88,000 (lower DBR)
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D) Bear continuation (FVG fails)
Trigger: 15m close < 88,400 + continued acceptance below
Entry: retest of 88,400–88,600 from below (best)
SL: above 88,600
TPs: 88,000 / 87,600
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Rule
No mid-box guessing: I act on close + hold, not wicks.
Reclaim 89,279 / 89,450 = bounce may evolve into reversal.
Fail there = continuation.
