WTI Crude Oil: Double Engulf + H&S Breakdown Points to $40Hello guys! Let's dive into WTI!
The weekly chart of WTI Crude Oil reveals a bearish Head & Shoulders pattern playing out over a long-term descending channel. Price recently got rejected from the upper trendline, showing weakness despite a short-term bounce.
- Engulfed 1 & 2:
Two major engulfing zones failed to hold as support, turning into strong resistance.
- Bearish Scenario in Play:
After the recent upside move into resistance, price is likely to follow one of two paths:
- Continuation Within the Channel:
Rejection from the upper bound of the descending channel leads to a stair-step decline toward the $47–52 zone.
- Final Rejection from Supply Zone ($83–89):
A larger corrective push could test this area before a full collapse toward the long-term demand zone.
Main Target:
The blue shaded region ($36–47) stands out as a strong long-term demand zone, where buyers may finally step in.
____________________
Invalidation point:
Unless crude oil breaks above the $89 zone with strong volume, all signs point to further downside.
The chart structure favors a slow bleed with temporary bounces, ultimately targeting the $40s.
Crude Oil
CRUDEOIL1! at Best Support Zone !!This is the Daily Chart of CRUDEOIL1!.
CRUDEOIL1! having a good law of polarity at 5500-5600 level .
CRUDEOIL1! is currently trading between its quarterly pivot 5603 level and monthly pivot 5805 levels , indicating a range-bound movement."
Once the Crudeoil1! sustains above the monthly pivot, it may trigger a potential upside rally."
If this lop is sustain , then we may see higher prices in CRUDEOIL1!
Thank You !!
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation is Over
Crude Oil was consolidating for 6 trading days in a row
after a test of a key daily support.
The yesterday's Crude Oil Inventories data made the market bullish
and the price successfully violated a minor resistance of a sideways movement.
We can expect that the market will grow more.
Next resistance - 69.27
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Brent Crude Oil Long Swing Setup – Support Break at Key LevelBrent Crude Oil OANDA:BCOUSD has broken to the next key support level after a cease-fire announcement in the Middle East. A long position is considered only if support holds at $69.00.
📌 Trade Setup:
• Entry Zone: $69.00
• Take Profit Targets:
🥇 $73.50 – $76.00
🥈 $79.00 – $83.00
• Stop Loss: Daily close below $67.00
#BrentCrude #OilTrading #ForexTrading #LongPosition #SupportLevel #TradeSetup #CrudeOil #MarketAnalysis #TradingOpportunities #Commodities #OilMarket #Investing #PriceAction #OilPrices #TradingStrategy #ForexCommunity #InvestmentOpportunities #MarketUpdate
Market Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro TriggersMarket Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro Triggers
WTI Crude oil is down over 15% and remains at risk of more losses.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil extended losses below the $68.00 support zone.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Price
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $77.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $72.00.
There was a steady decline below the $70.00 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $68.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $63.70 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $63.69, and the price is now consolidating losses.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $65.60 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $65.60. The next resistance is near the $66.80 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $76.93 swing high to the $63.69 low.
The main resistance is $70.30 and the 50% Fib retracement level. A clear move above the $70.30 zone could send the price toward $71.90.
The next key resistance is near $76.90. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $78.00. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $63.70 level. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near $62.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $60.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Risk On! Buy Stock Indices, Sell Gold, Silver.In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 29 - July 4th..
Stock Indices are pointed to the all time highs. Take advantage of the "risk on" environment while it lasts!
Gold and Silver have seen the outflows and profit taking... so look for lower prices this week.
Oil ... be patient. After a huge dump in prices when the tensions eased up between Israel/US and Iran, price is moving sideways in consolidation. I suspect lower prices to come, but I urge patience! Wait for the signature of price to show it intends to move lower. A sweep of the range highs and a run of the range lows right after... is the signal to sell.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Brent Oil – Bearish Break or Bounce from Long-Term Support?Brent Oil is hovering just above critical support near 66.00, with a clear bearish structure visible across timeframes:
🔎 15m & 1h:
Price action is consolidating near the ascending support trendline drawn from early June lows. Short-term price structure shows lower highs and lower lows, suggesting continued downside pressure.
📉 4h & 1D:
The recent sell-off from above 78.00 has pushed Brent back into the lower region of the broad descending channel. Daily and 4h charts show price testing confluence between the horizontal support at ~66.00 and a long-term rising trendline. A confirmed close below this level could accelerate bearish momentum towards 64.00 or even 62.00.
⚠️ Key Levels:
• Support: 66.00, 64.00, 62.00
• Resistance: 67.00, 69.00
• Bias: Bearish – price remains in a clear downtrend unless buyers reclaim above 67.50 with strong volume.
📌 Outlook:
As long as Brent holds below 67.00 and the descending trendline caps rallies, my bias is bearish. A breakdown of 66.00 on higher timeframes would open the door for a move towards lower channel support levels. However, if buyers defend and push back above 67.50, we could see a short-term relief rally.
USOIL: Bullish Correction Ahead! Buy!
USOIL
- Classic bullish correction formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USOIL
Entry Level - 65.16
Sl - 62.68
Tp - 68.86
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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WTI looks to end bearish run after bullish inventories dataWe have had some more bullish oil news from the weekly US inventories report. It remains to be seen whether the news is enough to lift the oil price.
Following the API data overnight we had even more bullish-looking official inventories report from the US Department of Energy.
The fact that crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week certainly points to strong demand, pushing stockpiles to their lowest levels since January.
As well as the big headline draw, stocks of crude products fell sharply too. The 2 million barrel draw in gasoline inventories was much higher than the API report, and suggests the driving season is well and truly at full steam, when demand for gasoline tends to rise.
In case you missed it, the DoE reported the following numbers:
• Crude -5.84mm
• Cushing -464k
• Gasoline -2.08mm
• Distillates -4.07mm
Whether or not oil can now stage a meaningful rebound remains to be seen. It has certainly lost its entire risk premium associated with the Iran-Israel conflict. Perhaps it is up to the OPEC+ now to decide with the alliance due to hold discussions on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August. Any hints of a slower supply boost could provide support to prices.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Tariff Panic = Opportunity | WTI Long SetupWTI Oil has finally dipped into my long-watched buy zone, driven by macro fear and an aggressive tariff agenda. The current drop aligned perfectly with my long-term execution plan. I’ve placed this trade based on key historical demand levels with my stop-loss and take-profit clearly defined. I’m prepared for deeper drawdown, but this area remains high-conviction for me. Execution > Prediction.
Technicals:
• Key Level: Price tapped into a major demand zone dating back to 2021 lows, which had been protected ever since.
• Liquidity Sweep: This drop mitigated every low formed post-2021 — clearing out late longs and stop hunts.
• Trendline Break Anticipation: I expect a potential trendline breakout from the long-term descending structure.
• SL/TP Defined: This trade has structure. It’s not a hope-based setup, it’s pre-planned and managed.
• Consolidation + Accumulation: This is where strong hands prepare, and I’m joining in.
Fundamentals:
• Tight supply, rising global demand, and structural underinvestment in oil exploration.
• Chinese reopening + Russian ban tighten market availability.
• Central banks expected to support demand via easing cycles.
• Oil Bearish Catalyst (Short-Term):
• US tariff wave: Trump announced a total 54% tariff on China and baseline tariffs on all trading partners.
• Escalating fears of global economic slowdown pushed prices to $58.80, a 4-year low.
The bearish panic gave bulls like us a gift. This is how real trades are born - not in euphoria, but in blood.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Oil Price Falls Below $69Oil Price Falls Below Pre-Escalation Levels of Middle East Conflict
According to the XBR/USD chart:
→ Prior to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, the price of Brent crude was hovering around the $69.00 mark;
→ Following US bombings in Iran, the price spiked at the Monday market open, reaching a high of approximately $77.77 (as we reported on 23 June).
However, after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — later confirmed by statements from both sides — oil prices dropped sharply. This morning, Brent is trading around $68, which is even lower than the level seen before the initial strikes.
Media outlets report that analysts broadly agree that fears have eased, even if the ceasefire appears fragile. Market participants seem to view the likelihood of the conflict escalating into a full-scale ground war — involving US troops and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as low. Shipping through the strait is reportedly returning to normal.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
Interestingly, the $69 level — from which prices surged on 13 June — acted as resistance yesterday (as indicated by the arrow on the chart).
It can be assumed that the longer the ceasefire holds, the less relevant the fears that have served as bullish drivers. In that case, Brent crude prices may continue fluctuating within a downward channel, outlined in red, with the possibility of a short-term rise toward its upper boundary.
Nevertheless, the key drivers for oil prices will remain the fundamental backdrop and official statements regarding the situation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Move From Support
WTI Crude Oil may continue rising from an underlined blue support cluster.
As a confirmation, I see a quick liquidity grab below that and a consequent
bullish imbalance candle on an hourly time frame.
I expect a rise to 66.24
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WTI CRUDE OIL USD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Price is reacting from a weekly FVG just below the 50% of a larger range, with some bullish momentum possibly fueled by recent geopolitical tensions.
But price is still within a bearish range acting as resistance, so upside may remain limited unless structure shifts.
A daily bullish OB below the 50% of that range could offer a solid pullback entry if price retraces which is aligning with the broader narrative and upside liquidity. Im having a neutral view of this and leveraging on both sides.
What are your thoughts?
CRUDE set to fire 82 $ 90 $ 104 $ ????Crude Daily Elliot waves count suggest big UP setup in progress right now
55 $ key level to watch for buyer Extension point
Due to amid middle-east war situation may trigger Up move impulse wave towards 82 $ to 104 $ range
EW count are keeping changing during different price action in different time frame & multiple forecast .
this educational based chart as per EW theory method
CRUDE OIL poised to go UP AGAIN? Usually my posts on crude oil are short. but here’s a longer one for a change.
Back in December, I predicted that crude oil would hit the highlighted zone around $57. That’s exactly what happened, hit the target and bounced.
Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen wild swings in crude oil prices as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated. But now, following the ceasefire announcement brokered by President Trump, and considering Iran’s response over the past couple of days, crude oil has dropped below its pre-conflict price levels.
While I truly hope for a peaceful world where no innocent lives are harmed, my personal view is that this ceasefire feels fragile and may not last long.
So, what’s next for crude oil? Up or down?
If the ceasefire holds and we don’t see further conflict in the Middle East, I think crude oil could hover in the $65–$75 range. There’s even a slim chance we dip as low as $45.
However, based on my technical analysis model, and my doubts about the durability of the ceasefire, I expect oil prices to rise in the next 6 to 9 months. My targets? $78 and $85.
Of course, I might be wrong this time. :)
Cheers!
Crude Oil Gets Trapped Back Inside 3-Year Down trending ChannelAfter failing to close above the upper border and the 78 resistance level, and amid renewed hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, oil prices dropped sharply back toward the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders formation—initially broken ahead of the recent war escalation—at 64.70.
A sustained move below that neckline could target crude prices toward the mid-zone of the established channel, near 63.40 and 61.40, where another rebound may take shape.
On the upside, if a clear recovery re-emerges above the 72-mark, the potential for a breakout above the 78-resistance could return, opening the door to revisit the 80 and 83.50 highs.
— Razan Hilal, CMT
Oil Price: Breakout or Fakeout? Watch This Zone Closely Technical Overview:
The current price action is testing the upper boundary of a descending wedge, a bullish reversal pattern. The recent strong green candle indicates a potential breakout attempt, yet price is hovering near a critical resistance level at $74.20 (Fib 0.5).
Key levels from the Fibonacci retracement are:
🔼 Resistance at $74.20 (0.5), then $78.16 (0.618)
🧲 Local support at $69.78 (0.382)
🛡️ Strong demand zone near $63.81 (0.236) if rejection occurs
Structure + Patterns:
Price has been compressing inside a falling wedge, which statistically resolves to the upside.
The breakout candle broke above the 20 EMA and touched the upper wedge resistance — signaling a decision point.
Volume is rising on bullish candles — initial confirmation of buyer interest, but not yet decisive.
Scenarios to Watch
Bullish Case:
Break and close above $74.20 on higher volume → likely move toward $78–$86 resistance zone.
Confirmation of wedge breakout could trigger trend reversal, aligning with bullish fib levels.
Momentum could accelerate if macro factors support demand (see geopolitics below).
Bearish Case:
Failure to close above $74.20 = fakeout risk → price may reject down to $69.78 or even retest $63.81.
Bearish rejection wick on the daily/4H would be an early signal.
Macro & Geopolitical Factors to Monitor:
Middle East Tensions: Any escalation (especially around Iran or shipping lanes) could spike oil due to supply fears.
US Strategic Reserves & Elections: Moves to refill reserves or control inflation could support demand.
China Demand Recovery: Data showing improved industrial output or stimulus from PBoC may strengthen global oil outlook.
Final Thoughts:
Price is at a pivot zone — breaking this wedge with strength could shift the short-to-midterm trend. Until then, this remains a "show me" breakout . Watch how the next 1–2 weekly candles close around the $74–$75 area to confirm direction.
Crude Could Rally to $75 — Entry Opportunity Still Alive at $68Brent Crude Oil is setting up for a potential bullish continuation on the 4-hour timeframe. After a sharp pullback from its recent high near $76.28, price found support around the $65.93–$66 zone—an area that previously acted as strong resistance and now serves as a bullish flip level. The price is consolidating above this reclaimed support and forming a base within the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a possible accumulation phase before the next leg higher.
Ichimoku components support the bullish outlook: the cloud remains green, the Tenkan-sen is curling upward, and price is stabilizing above both the Kijun-sen and the flat Senkou Span A. These are typically early signs of a bullish continuation. The bullish thesis is further strengthened by broader geopolitical risks, particularly Iran’s increased influence over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical oil transit route. Any disruption in this corridor could immediately pressure global supply and send oil prices higher.
This aligns with recent bullish projections (not exactly with the pricing but with the intent): Citi forecasts Brent could reach $75–78 if Iran related disruptions cut 1.1 mbpd, while Goldman and JPMorgan warn $100–120+ spikes if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened. The Guardian notes the shipping chokepoint transports ~20% of global oil, and even brief disruptions could add $8–30 / barrel in volatility.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: $67–$68
• Stop-Loss: $65
• Take Profit: $75
This provides a risk-reward ratio of 1:4, with nearly 12% upside potential. Given the convergence of strong technical structure and real-world catalysts, this setup offers a compelling opportunity for bullish Brent traders aiming to catch the next breakout.
Brent Crude still in controlled yr 2025 range ~ 75 - 71 - 63 USThe Brent crude oil price today underwent a technical correction in the D1 / Day time frame as seen from a technical analysis standpoint. It has not yet broken out to indicate Panic in markets of while being within controlled thresholds .
2025 opening price level : USD 75 ;
MAY face support at USD 71 which is JUNE resistance ; can range around this price line
Next drop below June 2025 opening price : USD 63
Experience in markets also say that in order to go Up , markets need a timely Correction (preliminary down move )too !!
Time to Wait and Watch !
Crude Oil Prices Rocketing amid geopolitical risks
NYMEX:CL1! NYMEX:MCL1! NYMEX:BZ1!
Macro:
Geopolitical tensions remain high and markets are now likely to price in our scenario discussing ongoing air and missile war, given one-off intervention from the US thus far. According to Reuters, the U.S. now assesses that Iranian retaliation could occur within the next two days.What happens next is anybody’s guess but as traders, it is important to navigate these uncertainties with scenario planning and/or reduce risk to account for increased volatility.
We also get Services and Manufacturing PMI data today and PCE Price Index on Friday. Chair Powell is set to testify on Tuesday 9am CT.
Key levels:
Jan 2025 High: 76.57
2025 High: 78.40
2025 CVAH(Composite Value Area High): 75.68
Key LIS zone: 73.50-73.15
We anticipate the following scenarios in crude oil:
Scenario 1:
Prices remain elevated as tensions remain high, despite limited retaliation, however, the situation overall now escalated beyond return to diplomacy.
Scenario 2:
Any push towards de-escalation, unlikely in our analysis, but given the headline risk, crude prices may remain volatile and come off the highs.
Given our key LIS (Line in Sand) zone above, we favor longs above this and shorts below this zone.
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid.
The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict.
Key points:
→ Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week).
→ Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
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