Natural Gas Is Hibernating Ahead of an Upcoming SwingToday, we will discuss why natural gas is hibernating ahead of an upcoming swing. We will deep dive into:
1) the impact of inflation on commodity prices,
2) the technical outlook, covering both long-term and short-term perspectives, and
3) the fundamental confirmation of this view, based on the “Five Things to Watch in Energy Markets in 2026.”
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures & Options
Ticker: NG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 per MMBtu = $10.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Crude Oil
USOIL WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅WTI OIL trades into a clear premium supply zone after buy-side liquidity was taken. Weak bullish follow-through and rejection suggest smart money distribution, favoring a downside move toward resting sell-side liquidity below. Time Frame 6H.
SHORT🔥
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WTI Crude Oil 4H Setup – Liquidity Zones & FVG ReactionThis 4-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (FXCM) highlights a potential trade setup based on liquidity structure and Fair Value Gaps (FVG). Key zones include Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), Sell Side Liquidity (SSL), and both 4H and Daily FVGs. An Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) is marked, with entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels clearly defined. Price action suggests a reaction from the FVG zone, with structure favoring a move toward the next liquidity pool. The setup reflects Smart Money Concepts and precision-based execution.
CRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTIONCRUDE OIL (CL) PREDICTION
📊 Market Sentiment
Crude oil prices had been trending lower following signs of de-escalation in the Israel–Palestine conflict, easing tensions with Iran, and emerging peace signals from the Russia–Ukraine front.
However, recent statements from Trump and the possibility of a U.S. military action against Venezuela have shifted sentiment back to the upside.
Venezuela holds approximately 18% of the world’s proven oil reserves and ranks as the 12th largest oil producer globally. Any potential conflict involving the U.S. could significantly disrupt supply expectations, acting as a strong bullish catalyst for oil prices.
📈 Technical Analysis
CL swept monthly liquidity around the $55 level and has since shifted into a bullish structure on the daily timeframe.
In my view, this move indicates that price has gathered sufficient energy for either continuation higher or a controlled retracement before the next bullish leg.
📌 Prediction – Game Plan
I entered a long position at 56.24$.
🎯 TP1: 57.70$
I will take partial profits here and move the remaining position to breakeven.
🎯 TP2: 58.90$
🛑 Stop Loss: Daily close below 55.40$
💬 For deeper sentiment and strategy insights, subscribe to my Substack free access available.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before trading or investing.
Crude Oil Futures Closing the GAP this Week?📊 CRUDE OIL FUTURES (FEB 2026) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
"The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." — Alexander Elder
The Crude Oil Futures (CLG2026) chart on the 1-hour timeframe shows a significant bearish breakdown as we head into late December 2025. Sellers have taken control after a period of distribution near the recent highs.
📉 CURRENT PRICE ACTION
Ticker: CLG2026 (Crude Oil Feb '26)
Price: 56.93 (+0.05% in the current session)
Trend: The market has experienced a sharp "flush" from the 58.40 level, breaking through multiple support zones in a single high-momentum move.
🚀 CRITICAL LEVELS TO WATCH
UPWARD RESISTANCE
Entry Zone: 58.40 (This was the previous distribution peak and acts as significant resistance on any bounce).
Previous Support: 57.80 (The blue line now acts as a technical "ceiling" for short-term recovery).
DOWNWARD SUPPORT
Market Closing Price: 56.94 (Current area of consolidation following the breakdown).
Target Gap: 56.53 – 56.60 (The chart indicates an "Open Gap" that hasn't been filled yet; price is gravitating toward this zone).
📈 MOMENTUM AND PATTERNS
Distribution Box: The yellow box near the top shows the price struggling to move higher before the aggressive sell-off.
Breakout Move: A large yellow rectangle highlights the high-velocity downward move that invalidated the previous bullish structure.
Gap Theory: The orange arrow points directly to the lower gap, suggesting a high probability that the price will hit the 56.50 range before finding new buyers.
🔍 TRADING STRATEGY
Bearish Bias: The overall short-term outlook is bearish as long as the price remains below 57.80.
Gap Fill Play: Traders are likely watching for a move into the 56.60 "Gap" zone to look for potential "exhaustion" or reversal signs.
Wait for Rejection: If the market rallies back to 57.14, look for rejection candles to confirm the downtrend's continuation.
#CrudeOil #OilTrading #FuturesTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Commodities #CLG2026 #WTI #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate
OIL, Crucial Wedge-Formation, Huge PLUNGE to Follow Next!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of OIL. Within the recent high inflation development with continued rate hikes in a lot of economic fields, it has to be mentioned that OIL could be on the brink of major market disruptions especially when the rate hikes continue to rise further together with the DXY printing the next new highs. In this case, I have detected important underlying dynamics within the analytics dashboard and I have put them into perspective to determine what should be considered with OIL in the upcoming times.
As when looking at my chart now, OIL could since May 2023 recover from the crucial bearish wave lows nonetheless this wave does not have a fundamental open interest and volume backing and this is why it can turn any time especially when a massive bearish supply wave is entering the market because of grievous rate hikes and potential new supply-chain disruptions that are going to trigger a supply shortage. Taking these crucial factors into consideration a major bearish decline and bearish momentum acceleration may be just around the corner.
OIL has also formed this gigantic descending channel formation in which it has the major bearish distribution resistances within the upper boundary as marked. The most determining factor here is the massive ascending triangle formation that leads directly into the upper resistance zone and is now about to complete the wave count within the ascending triangle. This means, that as the wave-count directly approaches the crucial upper resistance zone it is going to lead to an increased bearish volatility breakout below the boundaries within the next times.
Once the gigantic ascending triangle formation has been completed it is going to activate the next bearish continuation below the 100EMA and 300EMA. Especially, once the price-action formed the breakouts below the levels this is going to massively accelerate the bearish dynamics towards the lower levels and continue into the bearish momentum direction.
The bearish price dynamic is going to continue till the final targets have been reached and in this case, it will be highly determining how the final targets are actually approached especially when the interest rates continue to rise together with supply-chain disruptions to accelerate this is going to trigger the next bearish waves even below the final target zones.
Taking all the factors into consideration and because of the gigantic ascending triangle, together with the underlying indications with the interest rate dynamic as well as the supply-chain disruptions dynamic I am keeping the symbol on my watchlist and I am going to re-evaluate the situation once important changes happened within the bearish formation.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of OIL. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
USOIL - Symmetrical Triangle at $57 Executive Summary
TVC:USOIL (WTI Crude) is trading at $57.23 on December 26, 2025, down nearly 2% as markets react to progress in Ukraine peace talks that could eventually allow more Russian oil to return to global markets. Price is trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4H timeframe, compressing between $55 support and $60 resistance. Despite geopolitical support from the US Venezuela blockade and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, WTI is heading for its steepest annual drop since 2020 (-18% YTD) as oversupply concerns dominate.
BIAS: NEUTRAL - Waiting for Triangle Breakout
The symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern that can break either direction. Geopolitical risks favor bulls, but oversupply fundamentals favor bears. Let the breakout determine direction.
Current Market Context - December 26, 2025
Oil is at a critical juncture:
Current Price: $57.23 (-1.99% on the day)
Day's Range: $57.14 - $58.88
Weekly Performance: +3% (best week since October)
YTD Performance: -18% (steepest annual drop since 2020)
Brent Crude: ~$61.51
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: $58.60 / $59.07 / $60.48
Support: $57.80 / $55.50 / $54.98
Triangle apex approaching - breakout imminent
THE BULL CASE - Geopolitical Risk Premium
1. Venezuela Blockade Intensifying
President Trump has ordered a "total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers" going into and leaving Venezuela:
US Coast Guard boarded the Centuries tanker in the Caribbean
US forces pursuing tanker Bella 1 heading to Venezuela
Coast Guard assembling more manpower and weapons to forcibly board vessels
Venezuelan exports down to less than 400,000 bpd (half of last year)
While global impact is minimal, it's keeping a "bullish tilt to prices"
2. Ukraine-Russia Energy Infrastructure Attacks
Ukraine struck Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery (key diesel/jet fuel supplier)
Ukrainian drones hit Russian shadow oil tanker in Mediterranean Sea
At least 28 Russian refineries targeted in past three months
Six tankers attacked by drones/missiles in Baltic Sea since November
New US and EU sanctions curbing Russian oil exports
Limiting Russia's crude export capabilities
3. US Oil Rig Count at Multi-Year Lows
Active US oil rigs fell to 4.25-year low of 406 rigs (Dec 19)
Slight recovery to 409 rigs this week (+3)
Down sharply from 627 rigs in December 2022
Lower rig count = slower future production growth
4. Inventory Data Supportive
US crude inventories: -4.0% below 5-year seasonal average
Gasoline inventories: -0.4% below 5-year average
Distillate inventories: -5.7% below 5-year average
Crude stored on tankers fell -7% week-over-week
5. OPEC+ Production Pause
OPEC+ pausing production increases in Q1 2026
Still has 1.2 million bpd of cuts left to restore
November OPEC production fell -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd
Trying to manage emerging surplus
THE BEAR CASE - Oversupply Dominates
1. Record Global Oil Surplus Expected
IEA forecasts record 4.0 million bpd surplus for 2026
OPEC revised Q3 estimates from deficit to 500,000 bpd surplus
US production exceeded expectations
Most major traders expect global surplus next year
WTI heading for steepest annual drop since 2020 (-18%)
2. Ukraine Peace Talk Progress
Zelenskiy expects to meet Trump to discuss ending war
Kremlin reviewing peace proposals
Maintaining contacts with US officials
Peace could allow more Russian oil to return to markets
This news triggered today's -2% drop
3. Rising US Production
US crude production at 13.843 million bpd
Just below record high of 13.862 million bpd
EIA raised 2025 estimate to 13.59 million bpd
Production outside OPEC+ also rising
4. Seasonal Weakness
2025 significantly underperforming 2024 and 2023 seasonally
Thin holiday trading amplifying moves
Year-end positioning adding volatility
Expert Analysis
Dennis Kissler (BOK Financial):
"While the backup of the blockade and sanctions is not decreasing world supplies, the fact that it may be delaying them is keeping a bullish tilt to prices."
"Venezuelan oil exports have been less than 400,000 barrels a day the past couple of months, which is half what they were exporting last year. While the U.S. blockade has turned the pressure up on Venezuela, the global impact to crude prices looks minimal at this time."
Ritterbusch and Associates:
"We feel that excessive optimism regarding a quick peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia has been quelled for now."
"Crude fundamentals continue to provide a significant offset against the geopolitical factor."
Technical Structure Analysis
Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe
The chart shows a clear symmetrical triangle pattern:
Symmetrical Triangle Characteristics:
Upper trendline: Connecting lower highs (descending resistance)
Lower trendline: Connecting higher lows (ascending support)
Converging trendlines creating compression
Price oscillating between boundaries
Triangle apex approaching - breakout imminent
Neutral pattern - can break either direction
Key Zones Identified:
Upper resistance zone: $60-$61 (purple shaded)
Lower support zone: $55-$55.50 (purple shaded)
Major resistance line: $60.48 (red horizontal)
Major support line: $54.98 (red horizontal)
Current price: $57.23 (mid-triangle)
Pattern Implications:
Symmetrical triangles typically break in direction of prior trend
Prior trend was bearish (down from highs)
However, geopolitical factors could override technicals
Volume typically decreases during triangle formation
Breakout should come with volume confirmation
Measured move target = triangle height from breakout point
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Levels:
$57.80 - Immediate resistance (analyst target)
$58.60 - Secondary resistance
$59.07 - Triangle upper boundary area
$60.00 - Psychological resistance
$60.48 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (red line on chart)
$62.00 - Extended resistance
Support Levels:
$57.14 - Day's low / immediate support
$56.50 - Secondary support
$55.50 - Triangle lower boundary area
$55.00 - Psychological support
$54.98 - MAJOR SUPPORT (red line on chart)
$53.00-$54.00 - Extended support
Triangle Breakout Targets
If Bullish Breakout (above $59-$60):
Triangle height: ~$5-6
Target 1: $62-$63
Target 2: $65-$66
Would require geopolitical escalation or supply disruption
If Bearish Breakdown (below $55):
Triangle height: ~$5-6
Target 1: $52-$53
Target 2: $50-$51
Would confirm oversupply narrative
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $59-$60
Trigger Conditions:
4H close above $59.07 (triangle resistance)
Volume spike on breakout
Venezuela situation escalates
Ukraine-Russia peace talks collapse
Major supply disruption
Price Targets if Bullish:
Target 1: $60.48 - Major resistance
Target 2: $62.00-$63.00 - Measured move
Target 3: $65.00-$66.00 - Extended target
Bullish Catalysts:
Venezuela blockade intensifying
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
US oil rigs at 4.25-year lows
Inventories below seasonal averages
OPEC+ production pause in Q1 2026
Geopolitical risk premium
BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $55
Trigger Conditions:
4H close below $55.00 (triangle support)
Volume confirmation on breakdown
Ukraine peace deal announced
OPEC+ increases production
US production hits new record
Price Targets if Bearish:
Target 1: $54.98 - Major support
Target 2: $52.00-$53.00 - Measured move
Target 3: $50.00-$51.00 - Extended target
Bearish Risks:
IEA forecasts record 4.0 million bpd surplus for 2026
Ukraine peace talks progressing
US production near record highs
YTD: -18% (steepest drop since 2020)
Oversupply narrative dominant
Seasonal weakness
NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Triangle Consolidation
Most likely short-term outcome:
Price continues oscillating within triangle
Range: $55.50 - $59.00
Thin holiday trading
Wait for breakout confirmation
Watch geopolitical headlines
MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL with Slight Bearish Lean
This is a genuinely balanced setup:
Bullish Factors:
Venezuela blockade intensifying
Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure
US rigs at multi-year lows
Inventories below seasonal averages
OPEC+ production pause
Weekly gain of +3%
Bearish Factors:
Record surplus expected for 2026
Ukraine peace talks progressing
US production near record highs
YTD: -18%
Prior trend was bearish
Oversupply fundamentals dominant
My Stance: NEUTRAL - Trade the Breakout
The symmetrical triangle is a neutral pattern. Geopolitical risks provide support, but oversupply fundamentals cap upside. The prior trend was bearish, which slightly favors a downside breakout, but geopolitical escalation could easily flip this bullish.
Strategy:
Wait for confirmed breakout
Long above $59.07 with volume
Short below $55.00 with volume
Don't trade the middle of the triangle
Watch Venezuela and Ukraine headlines
Trade Framework
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade
Entry Conditions:
4H close above $59.07
Volume exceeds recent average
Geopolitical catalyst
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $59.20-$59.50 on confirmed breakout
Stop Loss: $57.50 below recent support
Target 1: $60.48 (Risk-Reward ~1:0.7)
Target 2: $62.00-$63.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:2)
Target 3: $65.00 (Extended)
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Trade
Entry Conditions:
4H close below $55.00
Volume confirmation
Peace deal progress or supply news
Trade Parameters:
Entry: $54.80-$55.00 on confirmed breakdown
Stop Loss: $56.50 above recent support
Target 1: $53.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.2)
Target 2: $51.00-$52.00 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5)
Target 3: $50.00 (Extended)
Scenario 3: Range Trade Within Triangle
Entry Conditions:
Price tests triangle boundaries
Rejection candle at support/resistance
No breakout confirmation
Trade Parameters:
Buy Zone: $55.50-$56.00 (triangle support)
Sell Zone: $58.50-$59.00 (triangle resistance)
Stop Loss: Outside triangle boundaries
Target: Opposite boundary
Risk-Reward: ~1:1.5
Risk Management Guidelines
Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade
Wait for confirmed breakout - don't anticipate
Thin holiday volumes = amplified moves
Watch geopolitical headlines closely
Oil is highly volatile - use appropriate size
Scale out at targets
Move stop to breakeven after first target
Invalidation Levels
Bullish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes below $54.98 (major support)
Triangle breaks down with volume
Ukraine peace deal announced
OPEC+ increases production
Bearish thesis invalidated if:
Price closes above $60.48 (major resistance)
Triangle breaks up with volume
Major supply disruption
Venezuela situation escalates significantly
Conclusion
TVC:USOIL (WTI Crude) is trapped in a symmetrical triangle at $57.23, caught between geopolitical support and oversupply fundamentals. The pattern is compressing toward a breakout, with the apex approaching.
The Numbers:
Current Price: $57.23
YTD Performance: -18% (steepest drop since 2020)
Weekly Performance: +3% (best since October)
IEA 2026 Surplus Forecast: 4.0 million bpd
Key Levels:
$60.48 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (breakout level)
$59.07 - Triangle upper boundary
$57.23 - Current price
$55.50 - Triangle lower boundary
$54.98 - MAJOR SUPPORT (breakdown level)
The Setup:
Symmetrical triangle = neutral pattern. Geopolitical risks (Venezuela blockade, Ukraine strikes) provide support. Oversupply fundamentals (record surplus expected, US production near highs) cap upside. The breakout direction will determine the next major move.
Strategy:
NEUTRAL stance - wait for breakout
Long above $59.07 (targets $60.48, $62, $65)
Short below $55.00 (targets $53, $51, $50)
Don't trade the middle
Watch Venezuela and Ukraine headlines
The triangle will resolve soon. Let the market show its hand.
(USOIL) 2H – Bullish Continuation After Trend ReversalThis 2-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) shows a clear transition from a prior downtrend into a structured bullish recovery. After forming a base near the mid-$55 area, price breaks structure (BOS) and establishes a steady uptrend, guided by an ascending channel.
The Ichimoku Cloud supports the bullish bias, with price trading above the cloud and the cloud turning positive. A clean pullback into a demand zone around 57.0–57.5 aligns with previous consolidation and cloud support, suggesting a potential buy-the-dip area.
Price is currently consolidating above a change in structure (CISD), indicating strength. Upside projections highlight two key resistance targets:
1st target: around 59.10
2nd target: near 60.45
As long as price holds above the demand zone and trend channel support, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid.
CRUDE OIL: No-Bias Trading Oil option traders are bracing for increased volatility by buying synthetic Straddles: Long OTM Call + Short Future.
Being market-neutral, it’s a pure volatility play: it earns on price action in either direction. Once it hits the profit target, owner can close it or manage
This isn't a unique story. Such portfolios frequently appear in the market when favorable situations arise, including those that are 'graphically convenient' (look closely at the chart and answer the question: will the price linger at this level for long? Probably not, it'll move somewhere). Options allow you to profit from these chart setups without worrying about the direction of the price move. Cool, right?
Bottom line:
this post is primarily educational, rather than sentiment-revealing. However, we also shouldn't ignore such 'market-neutral portfolios' in our analysis.▶️ If the professional players aren't sure where the market is headed next, maybe we shouldn't overstate our own humble abilities either.
Oil Target 62$: Sentiment Shifts Amid Geopolitical TensionsWe’re in a non-standard situation for oil markets — with the White House now openly threatening military action against Venezuela.
This dramatically increases the value of oil options sentiment.
You don’t need to be a PhD in geopolitics to understand:
A military operation = major supply disruption risk = price volatility on steroids.
And the market is already pricing it in.
Over the last two days, key levels like 58–60–72 have started appearing more and more in CME options flow — clear signs of positioning for extreme moves.
But here’s what matters most:
The trades that were placed before the Venezuela news broke.
That’s where we focus.
And if I had to summarize:
Two days ago, some guys were actively building spreads targeting 60–62 — betting on a pullback.
📌 Why?
These spreads are aggressive — they can generate 2x–3x returns from just a $2–$3 move, even if price doesn’t fully reach the target.
In short:
They’re not waiting for perfection.
They’re ready for explosion.
🔥 Final Take:
Yes, the option market has been extremely active over the past 48 hours — one of the busiest periods lately.
But beyond the noise, there’s a growing signal:
Oil is primed to explode.
And this "Venezuela narrative"?
It’s looking less like talk — and more like a setup for real movement. Big money is involved
The main question: will it explode before or after the New Year?
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL Price has delivered a strong sell-side sweep into a well-defined horizontal supply, followed by clear bearish displacement. This area aligns with prior distribution and unmitigated sell orders, favoring continuation lower toward resting liquidity below recent lows.
--------------------
Stop Loss: 56.76$
Take Profit: 55.55$
Entry: 56.26$
Time Frame: 8H
--------------------
Sell!
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Crude Oil at Key Short-Term Reversal ZoneCrude Oil – 15 Min Short-Term View
Crude Oil is currently taking support in the 5100–5130 zone and is trading near the lower band of a falling channel.
Reversal Scenario:
If the support holds, a short-term reversal towards 5180–5190 is possible.
Breakdown Scenario:
A decisive break below the support may lead to a move towards the major support zone at 4900–5000.
Crude Oil Pattern Formation: Breakout or BreakdownCrude Oil – 1 Hour Timeframe Analysis
Crude Oil is currently trading within a well-defined parallel channel between 5130–5150.
Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a key support zone near 5180–5200.
Breakdown Scenario:
If the price breaks below the pattern support, Crude Oil may first test the 5130–5150 support zone. A sustained breakdown could extend the downside move towards 5050–5030.
Upside Scenario:
If the support zone holds and price sustains above the pattern, an upside move towards 5300–5330 can be expected.
Thank You !!
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Inventory Pressure and 59.7 Key levelBackdrop: The Crude Oil Narrative
The tone in crude oil has been largely defined by a tug-of-war between demand uncertainty and controlled supply. OPEC has maintained its view that global oil demand should continue growing into 2026, but at a modest pace. Despite this, the group has acknowledged noticeable inventory builds worldwide over recent months. That dynamic alone has kept sentiment cautious and has acted as a headwind for sustained rallies.
OPEC+ has also chosen to hold off on further production increases into early 2026. Instead of expanding output, the group is now focusing on capacity assessments and quota alignment among members. This shift signals discipline on the supply side, but also suggests that the group is aware of potential oversupply risk if demand fails to firm up.
Markets have been responding to this mixed backdrop. On one side, controlled supply helps prevent severe breakdowns. On the other, rising inventories and uneven demand expectations limit follow-through on the upside. As a result, price discovery has been driven less by strong directional conviction and more by rotation between value areas, bid blocks, and responsive supply zones. Recent price behavior reflects traders waiting for clearer demand signals before committing to a trend.
What the Market Has Done?
At the end of September the market sold off but found support around the 60.17 area. That initial drop appears to have been triggered by worries about economic growth and a stronger dollar undermining demand.
At the start of October sellers stepped down and held the 62.3 level, which corresponds to the Composite Value area LVN. From that zone prices continued to sell off to 56.0 by mid-October. The continued selloff seems to reflect growing bearish conviction as macro data added to demand fears and inventories remained elevated.
Buyers began to accumulate again, forming bid block 1. From there the market auctioned prices upward back to the 62.3 area where sellers were still present and defended that zone vigorously.
From the last week of October up until the third week of November offers steadily stepped down as the market grinded lower, auctioning price down back toward bid block 1. Buyers responded by stepping up bids and holding the top of bid block 1 range. Throughout the last week of November the market balanced between 59.0 and 57.3, forming bid block 2 with clear buyer accumulation in that area.
In the most recent week, the market balanced between 58.4 (roughly the midpoint of bid block 2) and 59.82 (17 November weekly VPOC). This shifted the weekly value area higher. Last Friday, the market managed a close above the previous week’s VAH, suggesting that buying strength may be gaining momentum.
What to Expect This Coming Week?
The key level to watch is 59.7, which was last week’s VAH.
Bullish scenario
If the market holds above 59.7, anticipate a possible move up toward the 61.0 area, which corresponds to a daily level 1 and the weekly 0.5 SD high.
Expect sellers to possibly defend 61.0.
If price breaks through that zone, the next target is 62.3 (Composite Low Value Area), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD high.
Bearish scenario
If buyers cannot defend 59.7, the market could drop back through last week’s value area toward 59.0 (previous week’s VAL), confluent with the weekly 0.5 SD Low.
Expect buyers to possibly defend 59.0
Should that support fail, price could move further down toward 58.0 (24 November weekly VPOC), which is confluent with the weekly 1 SD low.
Neutral scenario
If sellers respond at the 61.0 area or if buyers step up at 58.0, the market could balance here and potentially shift value higher as buyers accumulate.
Conclusion
In summary crude oil has been trading under pressure from macroeconomic headwinds and demand concerns while finding support at key zones. The market has rotated between zones and recently shows signs of buyer strength. The key 59.7 level will likely dictate whether price heads toward 61.0 or returns toward 58.0.
What’s your outlook for Crude this week? Drop a comment and give this post a boost so more traders in the community can join the discussion! Thank you.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and manage your risk carefully.
Will this be the final Defense from BUYERS to LIFT Crude ?NYMEX:CL1!
Becoming Profitable in the Auction, is a choice only chosen by the 'PROFITABLE'...
As of December 14, 2025, the (front-month) WTI crude oil futures contract (CL1) has declined by approximately 18% to 20% this year (year-to-date). Now currently we have a Daily Demand zone that ranges from $57.00-$55.00 p/b, will this be the final defense from buyers to lift the offer higher here in the auction or will sellers over power and tank the auction lower? There has been gr8 talks in the Energy Markets that Crude OIL is expected to go into a strong BULL MARKET PHASE starting 2026, what are your thoughts? Lmk in the comments...
Continued Success,
TreyHighPwr
#BHM500K
CRUDE OIL Free Signal! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL has delivered a clean sell-side liquidity sweep into a well-defined horizontal demand area, followed by a strong bullish reaction. This displacement suggests smart money mitigation and absorption, favoring a corrective push higher toward the next liquidity pool.Time Frame 5H.
--------------------
Stop Loss: 56.98$
Take Profit: 58.07$
Entry: 57.47$
Time Frame: 3H
--------------------
Buy!
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