Crude Oil
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s DecisionXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s Decision
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil has pulled back from yesterday’s 4.5-month high following a statement from the White House that President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether the United States will take part in the Israel-Iran conflict.
According to Reuters, the US President is facing backlash from some members of his team over the prospect of launching a strike against Iran, which could drag the US into yet another prolonged war.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil price is developing within an upward channel (marked in blue), though several bearish signals are appearing on the chart:
→ a bearish gap that formed overnight;
→ a false bullish breakout (indicated by an arrow) above the $76.50 level, drawn from the 13 June high;
→ bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ a break of the recent local ascending trendline (marked in orange).
Given the steep angle of the rising blue channel, it is reasonable to assume that bears may attempt to break through its lower boundary, which is currently acting as support. Whether this scenario materialises in the oil market will largely depend on developments in the Middle East.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Strait of Hormuz risk priced in—or not yet?Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension with the U.S., notably in 2011, 2018, and 2020. The Strait is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through daily.
Several banks warn that a full closure could push crude prices above $120–$150 per barrel, or higher if the disruption is prolonged. Still, most analysts view a complete shutdown as unlikely, since Iran also depends on the Strait to export its own oil.
Technically, recent WTI candles suggest that the risk premium may be fading. Price action near $74 shows hesitation, raising the risk of a developing double top—particularly if support at $70 fails. Unless tensions escalate materially, such as the U.S. becoming more directly involved, WTI may consolidate between $70–$74.
What Is the Base Price for Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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WTI drops as Trump keeps markets guessing Despite a huge draw in US crude inventories - not that this was going to move the market given the focus being firmly fixated on the Middle East situation - oil prices fell as Trump kept markets guessing about US military involvement in Iran. The US president said: "I may do it. I may not do it. Nobody knows what I’m going to do." The US president also revealed that he told Israel PM Netanyahu to keep going, but has not given an indication that the US will provide more help. Meanwhile, Iran has issued an evacuation warning for residents of Haifa, Israel. This suggests that the conflict is far from over. But for now at least, the US is not getting involved, if one can believe Trump.
Anyway, WTI is now back at short-term support here, around the $72 handle. If it goes back above $73.00 again then we may see momentum build up again to the upside, especially if the war between Iran and Israel escalates.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Massive Oil Move Incoming? Only One Thing Can Stop ItOIL – Overview
Oil Rallies to 5-Month High as Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate
Oil prices surged to a five-month high early Wednesday amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. The ongoing airstrikes between the two nations, along with reports that the Trump administration is considering military involvement, have intensified concerns over a broader regional war.
Since Israel launched a surprise strike on Iran last week targeting nuclear sites, oil has risen nearly 10%, fueled by fears of potential supply disruptions. President Trump has publicly called for Iran's "unconditional surrender," signaling heightened geopolitical risk.
Despite the ongoing conflict, Iran's oil exports remain largely unaffected, and the country has not yet disrupted shipping through the Persian Gulf — a critical route supplying around 20% of global oil demand. However, markets remain on edge over the potential for further escalation that could directly impact supply.
Technical Outlook:
Oil maintains bullish momentum as long as it trades above 72.21, with upside targets at:
➡️ 77.21
➡️ 79.50 — key breakout level
➡️ 85.40 — next resistance zone
➡️ Potential extension to 88.40 if momentum continues
🔻 A shift to bearish sentiment is only likely if negotiations begin between Iran and Israel, signaling potential de-escalation.
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 73.20
• Resistance: 77.21 / 79.50 / 85.40
• Support: 69.55 / 68.33 / 66.03
Caution: Any signs of de-escalation or negotiations between Iran and Israel could quickly reverse the trend.
WADZ & the Petrodollar RevivalGlobal FX Shift: The Rise of WADZ (2025–2026)
In mid-2025, a war between Iran and Israel spirals fast. Iran strikes hard, Israel’s defenses go offline from cyberattacks, and the U.S. surprisingly doesn’t intervene.
Instead, America steps in quietly, setting up a “peacekeeping” zone along the Jordan-Israel border. It’s called the West Asia Demilitarized Zone (WADZ) — but behind the scenes, it’s about control, not peace.
Oil jumps to $115.
Markets flip. USD/JPY and USD/TRY spike. EUR/USD slides.
Then the U.S. launches WZ-Digital, a USD-backed oil coin. Now, all oil in the region trades through America.
OPEC fractures. Saudi and UAE fall in line.
China gets iced out. USD/CNY shoots past 8.30.
In the desert, a secret U.S. city appears: The Watchtower — a hub that manages oil, data, and borders.
Regional FX Snapshot (2026)
Europe: Gas crisis deepens. EUR/USD drops to 0.95. East Europe leans on U.S.
China: Crypto-oil push fails. Capital flight triggers USD/CNY → 8.80.
Russia: Oil-for-yuan helps short-term, but ruble stays shaky.
Africa: Egypt & Morocco adopt WZ-Digital. Local currencies stay weak.
Southeast Asia: Dual oil trade (USD/WZ). SGD steady, MYR & IDR choppy.
(BRICKS+)
Latin America: Brazil, Argentina resist — then cave. USD demand surges.
Bottom Line:
By end of 2026, USD isn’t just money — it’s a global system.
WADZ quietly reprograms the rules of energy and trade.
No invasion, no headlines. Just quiet, total control.
Bye guys
WTI above $75 on fears of US involvement in Israel-Iran conflictThe Israel-Iran situation is quite different this time and with Trump announcing that *we* now have full control over Iranian skies, suggesting the US is entering the fray – hardly a surprise to be honest - this is not going to end well. The conflict may get far worse in the short-term, and this will send shockwaves through the oil markets – especially if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hurmuz. Oil prices could easily spike to $100 and higher in the worst-case scenario. So, the situation is quite serious, unfortunately. Let's hope that it quickly de-escalates and lives are not lost.
But make no mistake, this could get really big - especially with headlines like these coming out in the last few minutes:
*US OFFICIALS SAY TRUMP 'SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING' STRIKE ON IRAN: AXIOS;
*TRUMP TO MAKE POLICY DECISION ON ISRAEL-IRAN: AXIOS
*IRAN WILL SOON LAUNCH 'PUNITIVE' OPERATION AGAINST ISRAEL: IRNA
The picture is looking quite grim, unfortunately.
by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Crude Oil Tests $74FenzoFx—Crude Oil climbed to $74.0, testing the bearish Fair Value Gap and a high-volume zone.
The Stochastic Oscillator signals an overbought market, suggesting possible consolidation. Oil could dip toward the previous daily low if $74.0 holds as resistance during the NY session.
A breakout above $74.0 would invalidate the short-term bearish outlook.
CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025
🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures)
📉 Strategy: Short Swing
📅 Entry Timing: Market Open
📈 Confidence: 68%
🔍 Model Insights Recap
🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs
🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength
📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias
🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility
⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus
📉 Consensus Takeaway
While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to:
🔼 Overbought RSI readings
📈 Price extended well above key moving averages
🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
Metric Value
🔀 Direction Short
🎯 Entry Price $72.65
🛑 Stop Loss $74.20
🎯 Take Profit $68.80
📏 Size 1 contract
📈 Confidence 68%
⏰ Timing Market Open
⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges
📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis
📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20
🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "CL",
"direction": "short",
"entry_price": 72.65,
"stop_loss": 74.20,
"take_profit": 68.80,
"size": 1,
"confidence": 0.68,
"entry_timing": "market_open"
}
💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
WTI rebounds from key support as Middle East tensions intensifyThe latest escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran initially didn't cause much panic in the oil market. After spiking initially to an overnight high of $75.70, WTI has since been on a decline, before hitting a low so far of $68.50. That represents a 9.5% drop from the overnight high, which is massive. Investors have been pricing out the risk of of oil supplies being meaningfully impacted. But the latest air strikes on Tehran and Israel declaring that it had "full aerial operational control" over Tehran means tension are rising another bombardment of Tel Aviv was most likely on the agenda for Iran. Oil has been bouncing back as a result. So far, it hasn't impacted equities, with major US indices remaining near their session highs. But will that change if oil extends it recovery?
Key support at $68.60 has been defended as we can see on the hourly chart. $70.00/$70.10 is now reclaimed, which is a bullish sign. Resistance is seen around $72.20. Above that, $73.00 will be in focus.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Crude Oil Challenges 2-Year ChannelAmid rising summer demand, an inverted head and shoulders breakout from oversold 2020 levels, and the recent outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, crude oil has tested the upper boundary of the declining channel originating from the 2022 highs. This test comes as supply risks for the coming month intensify.
This upper boundary aligns with the $77 resistance level. A confirmed breakout and sustained hold above this level could shift momentum more decisively to the bullish side, potentially paving the way for a retest of the $80 and $83.50 levels.
On the downside, if oil fails to maintain its gains and resumes a pullback, key support zones are located around $69, $66, and $64, reestablishing bearish dominance within the channel.
— Razan Hilal, CMT
WTI Crude Oil Regains Bullish MomentumWTI Crude Oil Regains Bullish Momentum
WTI Crude oil prices climbed higher above $70.00 and might extend gains.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices started a decent increase above the $65.00 and $68.50 resistance levels.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $71.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent upward move from $65.00 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $68.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls pushed the price above the $69.50 and $71.50 resistance levels. The recent high was formed at $74.80 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.55 swing low to the $74.83 high.
The RSI is now below the 60 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $71.50 zone. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $71.50 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.55 swing low to the $74.83 high.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $69.50 zone, below which the price could test the $67.90 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $65.20. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $63.75 support zone.
If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $72.50. The next major resistance is near the $74.80 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78.50 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil Price Rally Stalls at $77.72, Just Below 2025 HighFenzoFx—Oil prices resumed their bullish trend, accelerating after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rally paused at $77.72, just below the 2025 high.
RSI 14 indicates an overbought market, while volume accumulation at $73.7 suggests possible sell orders. A consolidation phase is likely before further gains.
If oil pulls back, key demand zones at $64.00 and $66.00 offer bullish opportunities, with a potential move toward the 2025 high at $80.59.
USOIL || Geopolitical Spike Hits Major Resistance - Watch $77.77🛢️
📅 June 13, 2025
👤 By: MJTRADING
🔍 🧭 Fundamental Context – Risk Premium on the Rise:
Crude oil surged sharply today following reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory — a move that reawakens fears of broader Middle East escalation. Iran plays a crucial role in OPEC and controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz , through which ~20% of global oil passes.
While Iran has not officially responded yet, markets are pricing in the potential for:
* Military retaliation
* Disruption of oil exports or maritime routes
* Heightened volatility across global risk assets
=======================================================
📉 📊 Technical Structure – Tag of Key Resistance at $77.7:
Price exploded upward, piercing the descending channel that's been intact since mid-2022.
Today's daily wick tagged the $77.70 level, a major horizontal resistance and channel top.
This zone has repeatedly acted as a pivot in both bullish and bearish phases.
Volume confirmed the move – highest daily volume in months, suggesting institutional reaction.
💡 Trading Outlook:
🔼 Scenario A – Breakout & Close Above $77.7 = Bull Continuation
If tomorrow closes firmly above $77.70:
Target 1: $88.88 supply zone
Target 2: $90.00 psychological resistance
Setup: Conservative entries on retest of $75–77 area with tight invalidation
🔽 Scenario B – Failed Breakout → Fade Back Inside Channel
If this was a headline-driven spike with no follow-through, bears may re-enter strongly
A close below $75 could confirm bull trap
Support zone to watch: $66.66 (mid-channel, EMA confluence)
⚠️ Risk Factors to Monitor:
Iran’s response (military, diplomatic, strategic)
US/NATO reaction to potential escalation
Strait of Hormuz disruption
OPEC commentary or Saudi-led output adjustment
Market sentiment unwind (profit-taking from overbought spike)
💬 Markets love emotion, but traders survive with structure. This is not the time to be reckless — size down, be responsive, and respect both breakouts and fakeouts.
📎 #CrudeOil #Geopolitics #OilSpike #WTI #MiddleEastTensions #Iran #IranIsrael #TechnicalAnalysis #MJTRADING
California Resources Corporation (CRC) – Stock Analysis and ForeCalifornia Resources Corporation, a key player in crude oil production and carbon management, has recently experienced a notable uptick in investor interest.
This momentum appears to be supported by macroeconomic tailwinds, including renewed trade tensions between the United States and other major economies.
Historically, geopolitical uncertainty often leads to increased energy demand and price volatility, both of which tend to benefit domestic oil producers like CRC.
From a fundamental standpoint, investor sentiment toward CRC has grown increasingly positive. The company’s strategic positioning in California's energy transition—particularly its focus on carbon capture and storage (CCS)—is beginning to resonate more with institutional investors looking to align portfolios with sustainable yet profitable energy operations.
If these supportive fundamentals continue, there is potential for the stock to reach $56 in the coming months, assuming no major changes to current market dynamics or geopolitical influences.
Technical Outlook:
Entry Point: $44.68
Stop Loss: $42.73
Take Profit 1: $50.84
Take Profit 2: $55.88
As always, trade with care, apply proper risk management, and ensure your positions align with your overall investment strategy.
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Crude Oil - Two Scenarios and about Brain PowerPrice retests the L-MLH.
VI. - Price breaks upward, target is the centerline
VII. - Price reverses again, then the target is the 1/4 line, with a subsequent extended target at the red centerline, and possibly even lower at the white dashed warning line.
On a personal note:
I was once again told that the price didn’t do what I had projected.
...yeah, really, that’s how it is §8-)
After over 30 years in the markets and hundreds of coaching sessions, I’m still amazed that people think you can predict price movements as if with a magic crystal ball.
The fact that this belief still persists (even though they don’t understand even the absolute basics of trading) deeply concerns me at the core of my trading soul.
Because this growing irrationality clearly indicates that far too little is being done in terms of education – or humanity might simply go extinct in the next 100 years due to rapidly declining intelligence!
...maybe I should just create a chart and apply a few median lines/forks?
Happy trading to all of you and I pray for those with lesser brain power.
Israel Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices SurgeIsrael Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices Surge
According to media reports, Israel launched a large-scale overnight strike on Iranian territory, targeting dozens of military and strategic facilities linked to the country’s nuclear programme and missile capabilities. Israeli officials justified the action by citing an existential threat from Tehran, which, according to their intelligence, is accelerating its development of nuclear weapons and expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles.
In response, Iran has vowed severe retaliation, stating that the United States and Israel will “pay a heavy price” for the attack. US President Donald Trump has urgently convened a meeting to assess the situation.
Commodities Market Reaction
In the wake of these developments, gold — the primary safe-haven asset — surged sharply. The XAU/USD price broke above its May high, rising past $3,440. However, the all-time high near $3,498 remains intact for now.
Oil prices also spiked due to fears of supply disruption. The military conflict threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Traders quickly priced in the risk of war, anticipating a supply shortage driven by large-scale instability in the Middle East.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
Brent crude oil price has risen to the upper boundary of a large-scale descending channel (shown in red), which is defined by lower highs from 2024–2025. As anticipated, this upper boundary acted as resistance, with the price forming a peak above $76 before reversing downward (as illustrated by the black arrow).
From a technical standpoint, following such a sharp rally, Brent is vulnerable to a corrective move. In this scenario, a pullback into the orange zone is possible, where support may be found at:
→ The psychologically important $70 level;
→ The 50% Fibonacci retracement level;
→ The former resistance of the purple descending trendline, now turned support.
Nevertheless, given the scale of the geopolitical threat, it is unlikely that market sentiment will allow Brent to decline significantly in the near term.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Chasing Oil Spikes? How Geopolitics Can Wreck SetupsOil prices surged over 12% in Asia on Middle East headlines, sparking a surge of volatility across safe-haven currencies and stock market futures during thin trade.
It felt like a good time to provide food for thought to newer traders looking to chase these moves, highlight the mockery geopolitics can make of technical analysis with recent examples, and provide a filter for when the waters may be safer to reenter.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com