Oil Left Bulls Bruised and Bankrupt: A Silver Lining for RecoverFenzoFx—Crude Oil remains bearish, taking out bulls and breaking July's low this week—an unexpected move for the month. WTI Crude currently trades near $65.2, aligning with its prior market structure shift from bearish to bullish, marked by a bullish engulfing on June 6.
Forecast : Immediate resistance stands at July's low of $65.5. If price breaks above, Oil may begin to recover some losses. Technically, the next upside target is the order block at $67.29.
Crudeoilanalysis
USOIL declines on possibility of geopolitical stabilityUSOIL declines on possibility of geopolitical stability
Crude oil and gasoline prices fell August 6 after an early rally, as Trump announced "great progress" in U.S.-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war, reducing fears of new sanctions on Russian energy exports. Additionally, OPEC+’s planned 547,000 bpd production increase for September further pressured prices amid concerns of a global oil supply glut.
Technically, USOIL broke crucial local support at 6,500.00. Currently, the price is retesting this level. The decline towards 6,300.00 is expected in short-term.
USOIL drops on rising supply and demand concernsUSOIL drops on rising supply and demand concerns
Oil prices fell Tuesday as OPEC+ planned a 547,000 bpd output increase for September, overshadowing potential Russian oil supply constraints from U.S. policies. Brent and WTI crude dropped to their lowest in a week, marking a fourth consecutive decline. OPEC+’s reversal of 2.5 million bpd cuts, combined with weak demand outlooks due to U.S. recession risks and China’s lack of new stimulus, pressured prices. Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Russian crude buyers like India, which imports 1.75 million bpd, heightened trade tensions but failed to lift oil prices. Analysts warn U.S. tariffs could further weaken global growth and fuel demand.
USOIL shows some in-moment strength on RSI on 1-h chart, the price may rebound towards sma200 at 6,700.00. However, in long-term perspective, low oil price is expected. Eventually, the price may decline towards level of 6,000.00.
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Declines Towards Key SupportXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Declines Towards Key Support
As the XBR/USD chart shows, Brent crude oil has made two significant moves recently:
Last week’s price increase (A) followed President Donald Trump’s intentions to impose tariffs on India due to its purchases of Russian oil. This could have disrupted established oil supply chains.
The price decline (B) may have been driven by both the decision of OPEC+ countries to increase production and reports of a weakening US labour market.
Thus, there is reason to believe that the more than 4.5% decline in Brent crude oil prices since the beginning of August reflects market participants’ scepticism about sustained high oil prices:
→ this has a negative impact on the US economy (JP Morgan analysts raised concerns about recession risks this week);
→ increased activity from oil producers may offset supply chain disruption risks.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical analysis perspective, Brent crude oil has dropped to a key support level (marked in blue), which was previously active in July. A rebound from this line could happen – in such a case, the price might face resistance at the Fair Value Gap area (marked in orange), formed between:
→ $70.81 – a support level active in late July, which was broken;
→ the psychological level of $70.00.
Attention should also be paid to price behaviour around the $69.00 level (indicated by arrows) – it quickly switched roles from support to resistance, indicating aggressive bearish sentiment. Given this observation, a potential bearish breakout attempt below the blue support line cannot be ruled out.
However, whether this scenario materialises will largely depend on developments in geopolitical risks and tariff agreements.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?USOIL declines for the 3 days in a row. What's next?
Since the last post the USOIL has already declined on 2.5%, currently rebounding from SMA50 on 4-h chart. 2 main reasons are behind this.
On August 3, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their partners, collectively known as OPEC+, decided to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, the latest in a series of swift production boosts aimed at regaining market share. They cited a robust economic outlook and low inventories as the reasons for their decision. However, Friday NFP report may signal of a potential recession risk in the United States, the biggest oil consumer in the world. Here is what the Goldman Sachs writes down in x.com: "The decline in employment growth over the previous two months in the July report was one of the largest since 1960 and was accompanied by several months of similar revisions earlier. Corrections of this magnitude are extremely rare outside of the recession period."
So, fundamentals don't favor oil and despite the current rebound from SMA50, there are low chances of developing some bullish momentum here. The pullback from 6,800.00 is expected with the following decline towards 6,500.00
USOIL REACHED THE 6,900.00 SUPPORT LEVEL. WHAT'S NEXT?USOIL REACHED THE 6,900.00 SUPPORT LEVEL. WHAT'S NEXT?
As we told July 31, the price got reversed towards first support level of 6,900.00. Market participants are waiting for the OPEC+ meeting this week, expecting a significant output hike. Currently, the price sits slightly above the support level. Although, the asset trades above this level, considering the current weakness of the asset, further decline is expected. The 6,800.00 support level is the next target here.
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WTI Crude Eyes Bullish Momentum Above $68.9FenzoFx—WTI Crude Oil broke resistance at $68.9 in the last session, now trading near $70.6. This breakout supports a bullish shift.
Yet, RSI 14 and Stochastic indicate overbought conditions, suggesting possible consolidation. Support at $68.9 could offer a discounted entry if prices retreat.
Watch for bullish signs like candlestick formations and inverted FVG around the $68.9 support.
Market Analysis: Oil Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh CatalystMarket Analysis: Oil Prices Ease – Market Awaits Fresh Catalyst
WTI crude oil is also down and remains at risk of more losses below $64.60.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI crude oil price continued to decline below the $66.00 support zone.
- It traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI crude oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $67.50. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $66.00.
There was a steady decline below the $65.80 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $65.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The price traded below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65.60.
Finally, the price tested the $64.75 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $64.73, and the price is now consolidating losses. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $65.60 zone. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $66.42 swing high to the $64.73 low.
The main resistance is $65.80. A clear move above it could send the price towards $66.40. The next key resistance is near $67.50. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $70.00. Any more gains might send the price towards the $72.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $64.60 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $63.20. If there is a downside break, the price might decline towards $60.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil Bulls Watch $67.0 for Breakout ConfirmationFenzoFx—Crude Oil trades slightly above the bullish FVG at $66.5, showing sideways momentum on the 1-hour chart. The $65.5 support is backed by volume interest and could drive prices higher.
If this level holds, bulls may target a retest of the descending trendline. For confirmation, a close above the $67.0 resistance is needed.
Please note that a close below $66.5 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
WTI Crude Oil Climbs Higher Amid Market OptimismMarket Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Climbs Higher Amid Market Optimism
WTI Crude Oil price climbed higher above $66.50 and might extend gains.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude Oil price started a decent increase above the $66.60 resistance levels.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent upward move from $65.50. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $66.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls pushed the price above the $67.00 and $67.50 resistance levels. There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $67.15.
The recent high was formed at $67.63 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65.54 swing low to the $67.63 high.
The RSI is now above the 60 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $67.15 zone. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near the $66.60 zone or the 50% Fib retracement level, below which the price could test the $65.50 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $64.70. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $63.50 support zone.
If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $67.85. The next major resistance is near the $70.00 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.50 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Momentum Cools as Oil Eyes Reentry From $67.6FenzoFx—Crude Oil bounced from $66.2, a support backed by the volume profile point of interest, but lost momentum after hitting the bearish FVG.
Currently trading near $68.2 with Stochastic overbought. A pullback to $67.6 can offer a low-risk reentry. The bullish bias remains intact above $65.2, with $70.3 as the next target.
Bullish Setup Forms as Institutions Accumulate CrudeCrude Oil is consolidating above support at $65.18, with momentum indicators turning bullish. The Stochastic is rising from 27, and RSI is approaching the 50.0 mark. Institutional buying reported in the latest COT data reinforces the bullish bias.
A move above $67.55 could open the door to $69.45, while the bullish outlook stays intact as long as the price remains above $61.80.
Market Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro TriggersMarket Analysis: Oil Slides — Traders Eye Macro Triggers
WTI Crude oil is down over 15% and remains at risk of more losses.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil extended losses below the $68.00 support zone.
- A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $65.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Price
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $77.00 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $72.00.
There was a steady decline below the $70.00 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $68.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $63.70 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $63.69, and the price is now consolidating losses.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $65.60 zone. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $65.60. The next resistance is near the $66.80 level or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $76.93 swing high to the $63.69 low.
The main resistance is $70.30 and the 50% Fib retracement level. A clear move above the $70.30 zone could send the price toward $71.90.
The next key resistance is near $76.90. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $78.00. Any more gains might send the price toward the $80.00 level.
Immediate support is near the $63.70 level. The next major support on the WTI Crude Oil chart is near $62.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $60.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.00 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high.
Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid.
The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict.
Key points:
→ Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week).
→ Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
$100 a barrel coming soon for Crude oil futures In this video we focus on the current accumulation in the oil chart and the prospect of higher prices ahead .
I highlight how the respect of the previous quinquennial pivots gave us a 45% move to the upside in the past 8 weeks .
Looking ahead on the monthly timeframe we have the following confluences above the current price of $75 .
Above the current pa we have the point of control at $ 88 and the avwap at $97, if we can reclaim the poc I think we will continue to push up to the fib levels that I have mentioned in the video.
In addition to the above we also have the decennial pivots at $107/$112 alongside the value area high .
All of this validates for me why oil will be pushing back up throughout the course of the year .
Tools used in the video
Tr pocket , pivots , fived range volume profile and fib expansion
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s DecisionXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Falls After Trump’s Decision
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil has pulled back from yesterday’s 4.5-month high following a statement from the White House that President Donald Trump will make a decision within the next two weeks on whether the United States will take part in the Israel-Iran conflict.
According to Reuters, the US President is facing backlash from some members of his team over the prospect of launching a strike against Iran, which could drag the US into yet another prolonged war.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil price is developing within an upward channel (marked in blue), though several bearish signals are appearing on the chart:
→ a bearish gap that formed overnight;
→ a false bullish breakout (indicated by an arrow) above the $76.50 level, drawn from the 13 June high;
→ bearish divergence on the RSI indicator;
→ a break of the recent local ascending trendline (marked in orange).
Given the steep angle of the rising blue channel, it is reasonable to assume that bears may attempt to break through its lower boundary, which is currently acting as support. Whether this scenario materialises in the oil market will largely depend on developments in the Middle East.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI Crude Oil Regains Bullish MomentumWTI Crude Oil Regains Bullish Momentum
WTI Crude oil prices climbed higher above $70.00 and might extend gains.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude oil prices started a decent increase above the $65.00 and $68.50 resistance levels.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $71.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent upward move from $65.00 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $68.50 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls pushed the price above the $69.50 and $71.50 resistance levels. The recent high was formed at $74.80 and the price started a downside correction. There was a minor move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.55 swing low to the $74.83 high.
The RSI is now below the 60 level. Immediate support on the downside is near the $71.50 zone. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $71.50 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $69.55 swing low to the $74.83 high.
The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $69.50 zone, below which the price could test the $67.90 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $65.20. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $63.75 support zone.
If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $72.50. The next major resistance is near the $74.80 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $78.50 level.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil Price Rally Stalls at $77.72, Just Below 2025 HighFenzoFx—Oil prices resumed their bullish trend, accelerating after geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The rally paused at $77.72, just below the 2025 high.
RSI 14 indicates an overbought market, while volume accumulation at $73.7 suggests possible sell orders. A consolidation phase is likely before further gains.
If oil pulls back, key demand zones at $64.00 and $66.00 offer bullish opportunities, with a potential move toward the 2025 high at $80.59.
Israel Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices SurgeIsrael Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices Surge
According to media reports, Israel launched a large-scale overnight strike on Iranian territory, targeting dozens of military and strategic facilities linked to the country’s nuclear programme and missile capabilities. Israeli officials justified the action by citing an existential threat from Tehran, which, according to their intelligence, is accelerating its development of nuclear weapons and expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles.
In response, Iran has vowed severe retaliation, stating that the United States and Israel will “pay a heavy price” for the attack. US President Donald Trump has urgently convened a meeting to assess the situation.
Commodities Market Reaction
In the wake of these developments, gold — the primary safe-haven asset — surged sharply. The XAU/USD price broke above its May high, rising past $3,440. However, the all-time high near $3,498 remains intact for now.
Oil prices also spiked due to fears of supply disruption. The military conflict threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Traders quickly priced in the risk of war, anticipating a supply shortage driven by large-scale instability in the Middle East.
Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart
Brent crude oil price has risen to the upper boundary of a large-scale descending channel (shown in red), which is defined by lower highs from 2024–2025. As anticipated, this upper boundary acted as resistance, with the price forming a peak above $76 before reversing downward (as illustrated by the black arrow).
From a technical standpoint, following such a sharp rally, Brent is vulnerable to a corrective move. In this scenario, a pullback into the orange zone is possible, where support may be found at:
→ The psychologically important $70 level;
→ The 50% Fibonacci retracement level;
→ The former resistance of the purple descending trendline, now turned support.
Nevertheless, given the scale of the geopolitical threat, it is unlikely that market sentiment will allow Brent to decline significantly in the near term.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.