BTCUSD: The Cycle won't peak before September!Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 47.334, MACD = 3198.500, ADX = 54.017) which, having kept the 1W MA50 intact as Support, suggest that this is the ideal level to buy again upon the continuation of the Bull Cycle. Despite the recent 2 month correction, the Cycle hasn't peaked and according to the Pre-Halving/ Post-Halving theory, that suggests that the time from the Cycle's Bottom to the Halving is almost identical to the time form the Halving to the Cycle's Top, we have until the end of September before the bull run is over. And that's because the range from the Cycle's Bottom to the 4th Halving was 75 weeks (525 days), which indicates that it will take around the same amount of time from the Halving before the Bull Cycle tops. See how amazingly consistent that has been on all of prior 3 Cycles. Consequently, the best strategy here would be to hold and start selling in September.
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Crypto
BNB ANALYSIS🚀#BNB Analysis : Pattern Formation
🔮As we can see in the chart of #BNB that there is a formation Inverse Head And Shoulder Pattern and it's a bullish pattern. If the candle closes above the neckline then a bullish move could be confirmed✅️
🔰Current Price: $635
⚡️What to do ?
👀Keep an eye on #BNB price action. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️
#BNB #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #DYOR
BTC Showdown: Smash 84,700 for a Rocket Ride to 93KMorning, trading peeps! BTC’s at a crossroads – if we punch through 84,700, we’re looking at a sweet climb to 88K or even 93K. But if we slip below 83,500 and close there, brace yourselves for a dip to 76,300 or lower. Let’s see where this ride takes us today!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Bitcoin update 21.03.2025 (6 more months of bull market)Bitcoin Update : 6 Months Left Until the Bear Market
You asked for a Bitcoin update — here it is. I don’t post updates too often because I’m currently focused on developing my academy. But let’s get straight to the point.
Where Are We Now?
There are only 6 months left until the end of the current bull cycle . My vision remains unchanged: we’ve gone through a correction and are now forming the bottom of this move. This is a classic consolidation phase, where the market is preparing for its next big push.
I’m still bullish, but it’s important to remember that we’re in the distribution zone . This means upward movement will be accompanied by volatility and local pullbacks.
What to Expect in the Coming Months?
The next 2 months are likely to be monumental. We’ll see new highs, but in 2 months, most people will have already forgotten about this forecast (as usual). People tend to ignore long-term trends until they become glaringly obvious.
However, publishing exact targets on the chart right now isn’t the smartest move. We might not even reach them, as emotions and news drive the market.
Key Moment: May 2025
In May, there will be a major announcement in the US regarding cryptocurrencies . This will be a turning point. The market is currently moving based on the current sentiment, but after May, things will change. When politicians start talking about crypto, it’s our signal to exit.
My Take
Don’t underestimate the importance of timing. When everyone starts talking about Bitcoin, it’s already time to get out. Until then, we’ll see growth, but keep this in mind: the next 6 months are for closing positions, not opening new ones.
Be prepared for a significant correction after September — more than 50% from the peak . This is a natural process that repeats itself over and over again.
Conclusion
The market moves in cycles. They work like clockwork:
151–152 weeks of growth (bull cycle).
51–53 weeks of correction (bear cycle).
We’re nearing the end of the bull cycle. Act consciously, stay disciplined, and remember that success comes to the patient.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN - Price can bounce up to $87K, breaking resistance levelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price entered to wedge and at once dropped to support line, breaking two levels, after which it bounced up.
Soon, it broke $80200 level and then tried to grow, but failed and made a correction to $80200 support level.
Later BTC rose to $85400 level and then some time traded near, after which it turned around and corrected to support line.
Then price in a short time rose to resistance line of wedge, breaking the resistance level, but a not long time ago fell back.
Bitcoin broke $85400 level and continued to decline, and in my mind, it can soon reach support line of wedge.
After this movement, I expect that BTC can bounce up to $87000, breaking resistance level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
TON/USDT: Potential Pullback After Sharp RallyThe TON/USDT market experienced a 20% surge following unexpected news that Telegram founder Pavel Durov had regained his passport, enabling unrestricted travel. This bullish momentum led the price to rebound from support and approach the 4.00 resistance zone.
However, as the price neared this key resistance, momentum began to slow, and signs of a bearish divergence emerged. On the daily timeframe, candles with upper wicks suggest rejection at higher levels. Given these developments, the market may be poised for a short-term corrective move toward lower support. The next potential target is the support zone around 3.330
LINK/USDT Chainlink is a decentralized oracle network. It was created in 2017 to address the issue of smart contracts having to rely on external data sources to execute their terms, for example, on APIs. The project aims to incentivize a network of computers to provide reliable data that smart contracts need to run effectively on blockchains. LINK tokens are the digital asset token used to pay for services on the network.
APT/USDT Aptos is a scalable layer-1 blockchain built with Move language. It offers new and novel innovations in consensus, smart contract design, system security, performance, and decentralization. The combination of these technologies will provide a fundamental building block to bring web3 to the masse
ATH/USDTENTRY
TP
SL
Aethir is a decentralized, real-time rendering network unlocking content accessibility in the Metaverse. Aethir builds scalable, decentralized cloud infrastructure (DCI). Their network helps gaming and AI companies - big or small - put their product directly in the hands of consumers, regardless of where they live or the hardware they own. Aethir solves market fragmentation in a way only the decentralized cloud can
Gold Short to $2675Looks overpriced. CMC Gap at $2675, there is high chance to go to $2000 if filling the gap won't be enough to bounce back.
I expect to close my Short between $2675 and $2300. Of course anything might change.
In my opinion we can get a Black Swan event this or next week. Most of the stocks, indices, crypto looks very dumpy short term.
ALGOUSDT Facing a Major Reversal? Bears Ready to Take Over!Yello, Paradisers! Is ALGOUSDT about to take a sharp dive? The price is currently hovering around a key supply zone, struggling to push higher. With buyers failing to break through, the risk of a strong bearish rejection is increasing, signaling a potential short opportunity.
💎The market structure has shown a clear Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting a shift from an uptrend to a potential downtrend. Price remains below the 50 EMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. If sellers step in with force, the downside move could accelerate quickly.
💎Key downside targets are forming around 0.2188 and 0.1663, where the next major support zones lie. If the bearish scenario plays out, these levels could be reached sooner than expected. Any failure to reclaim higher levels will only strengthen the case for further declines.
This is where patience and discipline pay off. Market traps are everywhere, and only those who stay focused and trade smart will come out on top. Be ready for the move, Paradisers!
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
ETCUSDT: Breakdown or Bounce? A Critical Move Is Coming!Yello, Paradisers! Is ETCUSDT about to collapse further, or are the bulls ready to fight back? Let’s break it down!
💎#ETCUSDT remains in a strong downtrend, continuously rejecting the descending resistance and struggling to hold above key levels. Recently, the price tested the imbalance zone at $18.995 but got smacked down, a clear sign that sellers are still in control.
💎Adding further bearish confirmation, the 50 EMA has crossed below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the downside momentum. This classic death cross signals that sellers have the upper hand, increasing the probability of further declines.
💎If ETC retests the $18.995 supply zone and faces rejection again, expect another leg down toward $17.590 and potentially the major support at $16.576. A failure to find strong buying interest at these levels would confirm further downside continuation.
💎However, if ETC manages to break and hold above $18.995, it could signal strength. In this case, price may push toward $21.288, but it must first clear $19.288 with strong volume to invalidate the bearish setup. A confirmed breakout would shift momentum bullish, opening the door for a potential rally toward $22 and beyond.
Stay patient, Paradisers! The market always rewards discipline. If we see confirmation, we take action. If not, we wait. Trade smart, not fast! 🎖
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success 🌴
Hidden Forces: Decoding Buyer & Seller Activity on ChartsTotal Volume vs. Volume Delta: The total volume on the chart includes both buys and sells, making it less useful for analysis. Volume Delta, however, shows whether buyers or sellers dominated within a candle.
A green Delta candle means more aggressive retail buying; a red one means more retail selling. This helps analyze market sentiment beyond price movement.
Price & Delta Relationships:
1. Price and Delta move together → Organic movement, likely driven by retail.
2. Delta moves, but price doesn’t → Retail is heavily biased in one direction, absorbing limit orders. Possible smart money trap.
3. Price moves, but Delta doesn’t → Retail didn’t participate in the move. Lack of belief or failed market-making attempt.
4. Price moves against Delta → Strong indication of market manipulation. Large players using aggressive strategies against retail.
Market Manipulation & Smart Money:
* Whales leverage retail psychology and order flow to position themselves.
* Retail often gets caught in fake moves, unknowingly providing liquidity to big players.
Final Thought: By analyzing Delta and price movement together, we can spot hidden large buyers and sellers and understand market dynamics beyond surface-level price action.
Xrp - Destroying All Hopes For Bears!Xrp ( CRYPTO:XRPUSD ) is heading for new all time highs:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Literally all cryptocurrencies are currently creating pump and dump like price action with swings of two digits within a couple of minutes. But if we look at the higher timeframe - specifically also on Xrp - markets are still 100% bullish and heading for new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $2.0, $5.0
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Secure profits of LONGBTCUSD Chart Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
1. Securing the Last LONG Position
The last LONG position should be secured in profit because:
Price failed to sustain higher levels and is now rejecting resistance.
If the price drops further, it could trigger a deeper correction.
The risk-to-reward ratio shifts once key support levels start failing, making holding a long position less favorable.
Locking in profits prevents giving back gains if price reverses.
2. Why This Is the MAX Risk Point for a New Short
🚨 A new SHORT signal has NOT yet been given, but if it prints, we must wait for the daily close to confirm it.
Key reasons why this is the max risk point:
✅ Price is still within a key decision zone (near support and trendline levels).
✅ If price bounces and holds above current levels, shorts would be trapped.
✅ Shorting prematurely without a confirmed close could result in a fakeout.
✅ Stochastic Indicator is still crossing up, meaning a bounce could occur before confirmation.
3. Short Confirmation & Timing Considerations
📌 If a SHORT signal appears, DO NOT enter immediately. Instead:
Wait for the daily close → Confirms that price sustains bearish momentum.
Watch for key breakdown levels → If price stays below support zones at ~80,000 - 86,000, bearish continuation is likely.
Check volume confirmation → A high-volume breakdown strengthens the short thesis.
Conclusion
⚠️ Right now, we are at a decision point:
If the price holds above current support, another move up is possible.
If a SHORT signal is printed, we still wait for the daily close to confirm.
Max risk for a new short is NOW, because shorting too early without confirmation could lead to a reversal.
💡 Patience is key—wait for the right signal before entering! 🚀
Current Price Context
BTCUSD is trading at ~$84,380, showing a -2.81% daily decline.
Price recently failed to break above key resistance (~86,000–88,000 zone).
Volume is slightly increasing on the downside, indicating some seller momentum.
The Stochastic RSI is still crossing up, meaning there is a chance for a bounce, but it is approaching a critical zone.
Most Probable Next Scenario (Scale of 1-10)
🔴 Bearish Breakdown: 7.5/10
🟢 Bullish Bounce: 2.5/10
**Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) – 7.5/10
If price closes below ~$84,000, this will confirm a breakdown of key intraday support.
Next major support zones:
$80,000 (psychological and technical support)
$73,000 – $72,000 (strong demand & historical support)
$65,400 (worst-case bearish scenario in the near term)
Key Reasons for Bearish Bias:
✅ Failure to hold higher levels → Bears are in control.
✅ Trendline resistance rejection → Price rejected a major downtrend.
✅ Bearish order flow on volume → Sellers are stepping in.
✅ No new long confirmations → Momentum fading.
✅ Potential lower high structure forming → Could lead to further downside.
📌 If the daily closes red and under support (~84,000), a move towards 80,000 is highly probable.
**Bullish Bounce (Less Likely) – 2.5/10
If BTCUSD manages to reclaim ~$86,000 and sustain, bulls could attempt another push.
Resistance levels to watch:
$86,000 → Short-term reclaim level.
$88,000 - $92,000 → Key breakout zone.
$99,800 - $107,000 → Longer-term bullish targets.
What Would Change the Bias to Bullish?
❌ Price MUST reclaim $86,000+ with high volume.
❌ A strong daily close above $88,000 would confirm bullish continuation.
❌ Short squeeze event leading to a big move up.
📌 Until these conditions are met, the bullish scenario remains unlikely.
Final Thoughts
Bearish breakdown is more likely (7.5/10 probability).
If BTC closes today under $84,000, expect a move to $80,000-$73,000.
A bullish reversal is unlikely unless BTC reclaims $86,000+ convincingly.
No new SHORT signal has printed yet, but if it does, wait for the daily close to confirm.
📢 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price breaks down below $84,000 and closes red, SHORT confirmations are strong.
2️⃣ If BTCUSD holds $84,000 and reclaims $86,000, potential bounce.
3️⃣ Wait for daily close confirmation before making high-risk trades.
🚀 Most probable next move: More downside towards $80,000 unless bulls reclaim key resistance.
Key Factors That Could Trigger a Drop Below $70K
🔴 1. Major Support Breakdown ($80K → $72K → FWB:65K )
If $80,000 fails, BTC is likely to retest $72K– FWB:73K , a historically strong support level.
If $72K fails, the next major demand zone is $65,400.
Below $65,000, panic could set in, leading to a cascade of liquidations.
📉 Critical Breakdown Levels Below $70K:
$72,000–$73,000 (historical demand, strong support)
$65,400 (deep correction support)
$55,000–$58,000 (absolute worst-case scenario in a full-blown market panic)
🔴 2. Leverage Wipeout & Liquidation Cascade
BTC is heavily leveraged. A sharp drop below $80K–$72K could trigger mass liquidations, accelerating the decline.
Whales may intentionally push price below key liquidation levels to wipe out overleveraged longs before rebuying lower.
🔴 3. Macro & Sentiment Shifts
If stocks crash, inflation fears rise, or interest rates stay high, BTC could suffer from risk-off sentiment.
If major institutions or miners start selling, BTC could dip below $70K temporarily before stabilizing.
Probability of a Drop Below $70K?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): 3.5/10 (Unlikely but possible if BTC fails $72K).
Medium-term (1-2 months): 5.5/10 (More likely if macro conditions worsen).
Black Swan Event: 8/10 (If panic liquidations hit, BTC could momentarily dip to FWB:65K or even $58K).
Bottom Line:
⚠️ BTC remains at risk for deeper corrections.
✅ Below $80K, expect increased volatility & potential $72K retest.
✅ If BTC loses $72K, sub-$70K becomes a real possibility.
✅ Only a major liquidation cascade would push BTC towards FWB:65K –$58K.
🚨 If price action weakens, be prepared for rapid downside acceleration!
ETH - On which side will it break-out?Today, the FED will decide on the interest rate in the USA. It is almost certain (99% probability) that the rate will remain unchanged. The most important aspect to focus on in this meeting’s minutes is the FED Balance Sheet. Will they stop tightening the balance sheet this month, or will they wait until mid-year as stated in January?
Leading up to the FOMC meeting, ETH is squeezing within its 4-hour pattern, forming equal highs and higher lows. This suggests a potential breakout to the upside.
I have outlined two possible scenarios:
1. ETH breaks through the resistance zone with strong volume, then successfully retests it as support.
2. ETH fails to break the resistance zone and instead breaks below the rising trendline.
Scenario 1:
Many stop-loss orders are accumulating just above the equal highs. If ETH manages to break out of the resistance zone with high volume and fill the gap, there is a chance it will flip this resistance into support. To confirm this, we need multiple candle closes above the resistance zone.
However, there is also a possibility that the FOMC meeting could trigger a price pump, only to drop immediately afterward, taking out stop-losses along the way.
Scenario 2:
In this case, ETH breaks below its rising trendline. For this to be a valid breakdown, it must be accompanied by high volume and a new lower low. If ETH breaks the trendline without forming a new lower low, it could be a fake-out. Therefore, we need confirmation: a lower low followed by a trendline retest.
Interesting Observations:
Stochastic RSI on the Daily Timeframe is rising rapidly into the overbought zone, while ETH remains in consolidation. Typically, we want the momentum of the Stochastic RSI to increase alongside price action. However, that is not happening here.
If the Stochastic RSI enters the overbought area and then crosses downward, it could put selling pressure on ETH, potentially leading to new lows in this downtrend.
Conclusion:
My base case is that ETH will sweep liquidity/stop-losses during the FOMC meeting with an initial upside move, followed by a sustainable correction downward in the coming days or weeks, accompanied by a decrease in the Stochastic RSI.
We’ll have to wait and see how the FOMC meeting unfolds.
Thanks for your support!
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BITCOIN approaching the critical 1day MA50 test.Bitcoin / BTCUSD has found the support it desperately needed on the 1week MA50 and rebounded.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of its Cycle, the 1day MA50.
Every time this broke in the last 2 years, the market started a strong rally.
Buy and target 140000, which would be just under the Pi Cycle Top.
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ALTSEASON Party like 2021 is about to start.This is the unique ratio of the crypto total market cap excluding the top 10 against Bitcoin.
The market is consolidating for 7 straight weeks after rebounding on the top of the former Triangle of the previous Cycle.
Basically it this bearish leg is almost identical to October-December 2020. This kickstarted the Altseason of 2021.
We expect a similar altcoin rally to start as in 2021.
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LINKUSD Channel Up bottomed. Get ready for $44.LINK is trading inside a 2 year Channel Up.
The price is under the 1week MA50, which is about to form a Bearish Cross which the 1day MA50. Last time that happened, the bottom came 10 days later.
If the waves are symmetric inside this Channel Up, then we're already at or very close to the bottom, given also that the 1day RSI got oversold and this has been an instant buy signal previously.
Buy and target $44.00 (1.382 Fib extension and +300% rise).
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BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish.
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