US Dollar Trade PlanUS Dollar has shown very little price movement since the 2014 bull run. US Dollar has stayed in a tight range and based on technical indications we could be seeing one more low before a catapult to higher highs.
US OIL , GOLD , SILVER, EMERGING MARKETS
Rapid movement in US Dollar can have a big impact on USOil as well as silver XAGUSD and gold XAUUSD. Higher US Dollar can also have a big impact on emerging markets EEM and we could see money flow from US into other investments.
Dollar-index
DXY - Short rally before the bears take controlI'm anticipating a short rally on Monday before the bears take control and we firstly re-test 95.50 before heading back down towards the trendline at 93.80.
A short entry at 96.60 will give me a 1.1:1 R/R shooting for 95.50 with stops moved to break even at this level for a risk free trade.
DXY - downside movementDXY is in a daily correction move after an upward impulse, but on the lower timeframes after a sharp down movement, it is correcting and we have MACD divergence. Im waiting for it to break to the downside touching at least the recent lows at the 61.8 fib level before going up again.
Dollar devaluation: A clear relief valve for US economic policy As the FED continues to push for policy normalisation, it is unable to do so and maintain its mandate for keeping stock propped up (more formally known as the 'wealth effect' or explicitly acted upon in the eyes of 'ensuring market stability').
A pricy dollar does not economically benefit the US, for example: with much exposure to energy junk debt through its banks, the devaluation of the Dollar helps support the revaluation of Oil despite the continued glut. This helps stabilise various risks in the economy which poise risk to policy normalisation.
$USDOLLAR Bullish Wolfe Wave @ Geo's Off-Set RuleHello Traders,
A while back I posted a Bearish Wolfe Wave on the Dollar Index(Linked below). That is a weekly view of strength of the dollar. Zooming in we can see that the dollar is not quite ready to make a move to the downside.
Here we have a perfect setup for a bullish move.
1. The larger Wolfe Completed at 5'. This give the Geo's Off-Set Rule @12211 as a target.
2. The smaller Wolfe Wave in the triangle also gives a signal of bullish moves ahead.
If you'd like to learn more about the Wolfe Wave and Geo's Off-Set rule you can visit the links below:
wolfewave.com
www.tradingview.com