Dollar
DXY - Long Term ScenariosDXY / Dollar is looking very strong and can break above resistance and target higher levels. A break of Support Level will open lower levels. MAs are coming closer and a cross will confirm Bearish move.
Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
50% fib retracement vs macroeconomics price has made new low of the range
price testing big horizontal support zone
price testing 50% fib of two years old bull market
lets see how fundamental analysis aka monetary economics fit into this simple fib retracement
and market found a reason to go up from here
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 22, 2024 USDJPYHigher market sentiment and rising US bond yields are limiting the rise of the low-yielding yen.
The US Dollar is holding near its highest level in the last year and is providing support to the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) attracted buying for the second day in a row following the release of slightly better-than-expected Japanese consumer inflation data. This came amid statements released on Thursday by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which kept expectations of an interest rate hike in December. In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's 39 trillion yen economic stimulus package boosts the Yen and puts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-on and higher US Treasury yields keep traders from aggressive bullish bets on the low-yielding Yen. Investors remain concerned that U.S. President Donald Trump's policies could lead to renewed inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slowly cut interest rates. This has been a key factor in the recent rise in US bond yields, which has kept the US Dollar (USD) near yearly highs and provided support to the USD/JPY pair.
Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 154.00, trading mainly with Buy orders.
Bearish Divergence Between DXY US Dollar Index & RSIThe DXY is butting up against a zone of significant resistance, and a bearish divergence between the index and the relative strength index suggests that buying pressure is fading here. A sharp correction in the dollar could have significant implications for gold, silver and other commodities.
Today we saw a rally in the DXY on a safe haven bid following news of escalation in Ukraine. If a major conflict between NATO and Russia really does break out, investors may learn the hard way that fiat currencies in fact do not make the best safe havens.
Navigating the Gold Market: Tips for Investors
Gold, often hailed as a safe-haven asset, is increasingly finding itself at the mercy of two powerful forces: China and the U.S. dollar. As these two economic giants influence global markets, their actions have a direct impact on the price of gold.
China's Growing Appetite for Gold
China's insatiable demand for gold has been a significant driver of the yellow metal's price. The country's burgeoning middle class, coupled with its cultural affinity for gold, has fueled a surge in gold consumption. This demand is not limited to jewelry; it extends to investment purposes as well.
China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has also been a major buyer of gold. By diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, the PBOC aims to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions. As China continues to accumulate gold, it exerts significant influence over the global gold market.
The Dominance of the U.S. Dollar
The U.S. dollar, as the world's primary reserve currency, holds immense sway over the global economy. Its value relative to other currencies, often referred to as the "dollar index," has a significant impact on the price of gold.
When the dollar strengthens, it typically leads to a decline in the price of gold. This is because gold is priced in U.S. dollars. As the dollar appreciates, it becomes more expensive for foreign investors to purchase gold, which can dampen demand and put downward pressure on prices.
Conversely, when the dollar weakens, gold often appreciates. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers, stimulating demand and driving up prices.
The Interplay Between China and the U.S. Dollar
The interplay between China's growing demand for gold and the strength of the U.S. dollar creates a complex dynamic that can impact the price of gold.
• Competing Forces: China's demand for gold can support prices, while a strong U.S. dollar can exert downward pressure.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China can exacerbate market volatility and impact the price of gold.
• Global Economic Conditions: Global economic conditions, such as inflation, interest rates, and economic growth, can also influence the demand for gold.
The Future of Gold
The future of gold remains uncertain, but China and the U.S. dollar will continue to play a significant role in shaping its price. As China's economy grows and its influence on the global stage increases, its demand for gold is likely to remain strong.
However, the strength of the U.S. dollar will also be a key factor. If the dollar strengthens significantly, it could put downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, a weakening dollar could support gold prices.
In conclusion, gold's future is intertwined with the economic and geopolitical landscape. While it remains a valuable asset, investors should carefully consider the impact of China and the U.S. dollar on its price. Diversification and a long-term investment horizon may be prudent strategies for those seeking exposure to gold.
Additional Factors Affecting Gold Prices
• Inflation: Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. As inflation rises, the purchasing power of fiat currencies declines, making gold an attractive investment.
• Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can reduce the appeal of gold, as investors may prefer to invest in interest-bearing assets.
• Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment and market psychology can significantly impact gold prices, especially during periods of economic uncertainty.
• Supply and Demand Dynamics: Global gold production and demand can influence prices. Changes in mining production or shifts in consumer demand can affect supply and demand dynamics.
By understanding the interplay of these factors, investors can make more informed decisions about investing in gold.
EurUsd Nov 24' .. Elections Catalyst?Hey traders, welcome back to another analysis. It's been 2 years and Eurusdmay finnally break out of the range to the downside. I know you are just as excited as I am for a potential squeeze down to 1.03.. However, we must wait for confirmation and maybe a liquidity wick before anything else. Safe trading!
Please leave any feedback below or even a boost to help the channel. Ty, cheers.
-ShrewdCatFx
Gold is not Bullish...Yet...Now that we are in a new week and middle of the month we are waiting for price to show us what it wants to do on this Monday weekly open. I think they want to make a low for the week first before going bullish. So we will look for that price action to confirm first before considering anything.
DXY Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY made a bullish
Breakout of the key
Horizontal level of 106.500
Which is now a support
Then made a retest and is
Now going up again so
We are bullish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further move up
Buy!
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BTCUSD | Trade idea
BTCUSD Performance: BTCUSD pulled back after reaching a minor top around $65,000, hitting a high of $65,103 and currently trading around $62,500.
Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 71.50% from 71% a week ago (CME Fed watch tool).
BTC ETF Inflows: BTC ETF saw an inflow of $202.51 million, with BlackRock attracting $224 million.
US Markets: NASDAQ, which has a negative correlation with BTC, is bearish but neutral for BTC. NASDAQ is trading weak ahead of Nvidia earnings; a close above 20,000 could push it to 20,500.
#DXY 1W#DXY 1W;
The Dollar, which has managed to gradually accumulate until today with the falling trend resistance in October 2022, is preparing to move upwards again.
Aside from the fact that it has tested the FVG area 2 times, we will soon find out if it will be successful in its 3rd attempt.
It would not be a surprise to see a rise up to 108-109 levels. If it exceeds these levels, the falling trend (red) above may act as resistance again.
Will the Dollar Retrace After Retail Sales Data?Macro theme:
- The dollar hovered near a one-year high ahead of today’s Oct Retail Sales report. Markets expect a 0.3% MoM increase, down from Sep's 0.4%.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no urgency to lower rates, citing steady economic growth, a strong job market, and persistent inflation.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for a 0.25% rate cut next month have dropped to 62.4% from 82.5% a day ago.
Technical theme:
- The market tests the one-year high area around 107.00, confluence with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension. The index is stretched to the upside and above both EMAs, indicating a potential mean reversion.
- If DXY cannot remain above 106.35, the index may retrace further to retest 105.43.
- On the contrary, if DXY extends its gain above 107.00, the index may retest 107.78, confluence with the 100% Fibonacci Extension.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
U.S.Dollar Chart Update !The US dollar recently broke above its descending triangle pattern and is testing a key horizontal supply zone. While it’s challenging this resistance, a potential pullback could still occur. The Ichimoku Cloud beneath provides strong support, reinforcing the bullish structure.
Given the dollar's inverse correlation with crypto, any decisive move could significantly impact broader market trends. Stay alert to shifts in momentum as they may signal changes in the crypto landscape.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes and is not financial advice. Always stay updated with market movements and adjust your trading strategies as needed.
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