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BTC USD UPDATEWe have seen an excellent drop to lower levels. Now, we're waiting to reload some spot trades. We're looking for a clear bullish shift before entering any spot positions. However, short positions taken into these levels have performed well, as indicated by the green on the screen. Currently, we're observing market reactions. If market makers are genuinely bullish at these levels, we should see a rapid price delivery. This means we have potentially long weeks ahead, and we need to be v [atient to avoid missing any smoves. Wait for safe trading opportunities.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by themarketknight
Dollar weakens amid growing economic uncertainty Persistent tariff threats from the Trump administration and rising concerns over the U.S. economy are weighing on the dollar. Trump reaffirmed his commitment to implementing tariffs on Mexico and Canada according to schedule and reiterated the need for reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, weak consumer confidence data further rattled investor sentiment, as the February CB Consumer Confidence Index plunged to 98.3 from 105.3, marking its lowest level since June last year. In Japan, accelerating inflation increases the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Japan’s January CPI rose 3.2%, the largest increase since June 2023. Bloomberg noted that with Japan's inflation among the highest in the G7, the BoJ may continue scaling back stimulus and shifting toward a more restrictive policy stance. After breaking below the ascending trendline, USDJPY shows a persistent downtrend. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, it widens the gap and reinforces the bearish momentum. If USDJPY breaks below the support at 148.20, the price could extend its decline toward 145.00. Conversely, if USDJPY tests the resistance at 150.80, it may gain upward momentum toward 153.40.
by inkicho_exness
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA). Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low). Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend. Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support. Fundamental Analysis: Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD: Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious. Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone. Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany. European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower. While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks. Plan of Action: 📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action. 📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level. However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend. With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
9
BTCUSD Daily Inflection Point UpdatePreviously I mentioned the weekly was consolidating, but there is potential for this momentum consolidation to have a breakout leg as momentum shifts and the final emotional price movements are played out. I was too conservative in my price projections; a lot more than I used to be- but there wasn't a whole lot of TA involved- I figured the dollar issues would crop up earlier. Now that the Fed had pivoted. the yields are creeping back up pushing bitcoin back down. The fed doesn't let on just how dire the situation is- and with global tensions rising, the dollar is at significant risk. I expect a broad correction in all the markets- and cash to become very tight. There is daily momentum consolidation- and if any other events occur that send yields upward- bitcoin is likely to suffer as a consequence. If instead we sail into the new year unscathed- then this consolidation may provide another leg up; but a break below 88k and a push towards 60k may solidify bitcoins correction. DAILY WEEKLY
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mikhiavelli
3
USOIL (WTI) - New uptrend? Based on the technical analysis of West Texas Oil (WTI) on the 4-hour timeframe, we're monitoring a potential bullish setup. If the price successfully breaks above the upper blue box resistance zone around 74.000, we'll maintain patience and wait for a healthy retracement. Once we observe clear confirmation signals during this pullback, such as bullish candlestick patterns or strong momentum indicators, we can look to enter long positions. The anticipated target would be the previous resistance level marked by the red horizontal line at approximately 80.800.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by financialflagship
XAUUSD ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEKXAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) Analysis: February 17 – Febrauary 25, 2025 This analysis provides an in-depth evaluation of gold’s potential trajectory over the specified period, integrating fundamental drivers, technical indicators, and expert forecasts. Key factors influencing gold include geopolitical risks, monetary policy shifts, inflation trends, and technical patterns. 1. Fundamental Drivers A. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Trade Tensions: The U.S. administration’s recent tariffs (e.g., 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods) have amplified global trade risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Middle East and China Risks: Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a slowdown in China’s economy (evidenced by a decline in the Caixin PMI) are further driving investors toward gold. B. Monetary Policy and Inflation Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 and dovish stances from the ECB and BoE are weakening fiat currencies, boosting gold prices. Inflation Hedge: Persistent inflation, driven by tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, enhances gold’s appeal. Analysts caution that U.S. inflation could exceed targets, forcing the Fed to reverse rate cuts, which may temporarily support the USD but ultimately favor gold. C. Central Bank Demand Central banks, notably China’s PBOC, are accumulating gold reserves to diversify away from the USD, creating structural demand. 2. Technical Analysis A. Short-Term Signals (February–March) Momentum Indicators: The RSI (26.05) and Stochastic Oscillator (14.5) signal oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound. Key Levels: Support: $2,830 (February 10 analysis) and $2,720 (ascending channel lower boundary). Resistance: $2,887 (immediate target) and $2,900 (psychological barrier). 2. Key Technical Levels Support Levels: Immediate Support: $2,880 – This level aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the recent rally. Critical Support: $2,850 – Represents the lower boundary of the ascending channel formed since late 2024. Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: $2,920 – A breach could trigger bullish momentum toward higher targets. Key Resistance: $2,959 – The upper boundary of the channel and a major psychological level. 3. Momentum Indicators Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 62, indicating bullish momentum but approaching overbought territory. Moving Averages (MA): 50-Day MA: Positioned at $2,910, offering dynamic support. 200-Day MA: Located at $2,780, signaling long-term strength. Stochastic Oscillator: Signals potential upside as it exits oversold conditions on the 4-hour chart. 4. Chart Patterns and Trends Ascending Channel: Gold continues to trade within an ascending channel, maintaining a bullish structure. Bullish Flag Formation: On the daily chart, a bullish flag suggests a potential breakout if prices sustain above $2,920. Candlestick Signals: Last Friday’s bullish engulfing pattern highlights strong buying interest. 5. Scenarios for the Week Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $2,920 could target $2,965 and $3,000. Momentum indicators support further upside if geopolitical tensions persist. Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold $2,880 may lead to a decline toward $2,850. Profit-taking or USD strength could pressure gold, particularly if U.S. economic data surprises positively. Bullish Targets/ Resistance 2890 2906 2928 2934 2959 2972 2987 3023 Bearish/Support 2872 2857 2841 2807 2781
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war. On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR). Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004