Bitcoin's Previous Beark Market and it's SimilaritiesWe are about 500 days into the bear market now and I thought it would be fun to record the similarities between the current bear market and the previous one. Below, we may see what the future could look like.
To start, we can see the bottom of the previous bear market was almost 87% less than the all time high compared to the current 84% bottom. Both times it took about a year to get there. (Show in the chart above.)
Below we see on July 9, 2015 (one year before the bitcoin halving) price had rallied to the 50 week moving average (red line) then subsequently fell by 34%. This was the last low before price rallied to the halving date. Now, keep in mind history will not repeat PERFECTLY . Recently, price rallied to the 50 week moving average on April 23, 2019. This movement is very similar to the previous one albeit a little early if we are considering the "one year before halving" prediction. We also notice that after price bounced off the 50 week moving average it fell down to the 200 week moving average (blue line). I find it very interesting that the 34% decline in both scenarios line up with the 200 week moving average closely.
So far, the symmetry is uncanny, to say the least. I feel like, until we see a major deviation in this pattern, we can expect a similar outcome. I am expecting one more drop before we see a significant rally. I will be looking for bullish news leading up to the drop. If the majority of traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade then it would be reasonable to see a lot of talk about bitcoin being in a bull market and that price could go to $X,XXX. The price retraction should catch people by surprise.
On the other hand...
Some things are different this time around. People are more aware of bitcoin, it's halving, and it's 4 year cycle. As well as the new option for short trades. I'm still trying to decide how these factor in. I am still bullish and I am still expecting a retraction in the near term, but unsure of how great the upside will be. As of now, I am confident price can reach $10k. After the halving next year, I won't be surprised to see price between $30k and $50k, but I am unsure the likelihood of that outcome due to the ability to short sell now and the upcoming economic downturn/ global financial crisis.
I am curious about your opinion on this analysis. Please leave a comment about your thoughts on how short selling and the upcoming crash could affect the future of bitcoin. As well as any thoughts on how greater bitcoin awareness will affect it's future price. I can see both sides and am interested in gathering opinions. PM me if you do not won't your comments public, I would still like to hear from you.
As always: Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
