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DXY

USDCHF | 15M | Needs to break for uptrendHey there my friend; I’ve prepared my analysis of USD/CHF for you. For USD/CHF to move into an upward trend, it needs to break out of the parallel channel. Once it breaks out of the parallel channel, I’ll share the target levels with you. Dear friends, your likes are always my biggest source of motivation for me to share analysis. For this reason, I would like to ask each and every one of my followers; please do not miss your likes. I sincerely thank everyone who supports me with their likes.
by TraderTilki
GBP/USD - H1 - Bearish Flag (28.04.2025)FX:GBPUSD The GBP/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.3209 2nd Support – 1.3151 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Fundamental Update : on Monday as the trade tensions between the U.S. and China provided some relief to investors, while a stronger dollar further weighed on prices. The U.S. dollar TVC:DXY rose 0.2% against a basket of currencies, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. TVC:DJI SP:SPX NASDAQ:IXIC also rising .
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
18
Is the US Dollar Preparing for a Bullish Comeback?The DXY is currently maintaining a bullish setup amid trade negotiations, election developments, and anticipation of key leading U.S. economic indicators this week. An inverted head-and-shoulders formation is visible on the 4-hour time frame. A decisive catalyst and a breakout above the 100.00 and 100.30 levels are needed to confirm a more sustained bullish bounce from multi-year lows, with targets at 102.00, 103.30, and 104.70 — reversing recent strength in major global currencies. On the downside, a breach of the 97.00 level could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of the long-term uptrend channel established since 2008, aligning with the 92.00 zone, and potentially lifting gold and major currencies globally. Several key events this week could challenge or reinforce the current bullish setup amid ongoing Trump–China trade negotiations: U.S. Advance GDP & Core PCE — Wednesday BOJ Rate Decision & U.S. ISM PMI — Thursday U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls — Friday Mega Cap Earnings — Wednesday/Thursday While long-term signals remain bearish, short-term charts suggest a potential bullish recovery, with trade negotiations likely to tip the balance. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
XAUUSD - Gold trend reversed?!Gold is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the hourly timeframe and is in the specified pattern. The continuation of gold's movement depends on the breakdown of one of the two established trend lines, and after a valid breakdown, we expect to reach the established targets. In recent weeks, gold prices have experienced significant volatility. This precious metal, long regarded as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty, faced a decline in Monday’s trading session. The primary reason behind this drop was signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China, leading to decreased demand for safe assets. This decline occurred while investors awaited clarity regarding ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries. Last week, media reports indicated that China exempted some American imports from 125% tariffs, signaling a reduction in bilateral tensions. In response, Donald Trump stated that trade talks were underway; however, this claim was rejected by China. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that he was unaware of any active negotiations, further fueling market doubts. According to a recent Federal Reserve survey, participants cited the outflow of foreign capital from U.S. assets and a decline in the dollar’s value as potential new economic shocks. Some respondents believed that increased tariffs might only cause limited market disruptions. The survey indicated that despite market turmoil in April, prices remained elevated relative to fundamental indicators. Meanwhile, investors were closely awaiting key U.S. economic data set to be released over the coming week. While the previous week was relatively quiet in terms of economic indicators, market focus has shifted toward a series of critical U.S. employment reports. These include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, the ADP private-sector employment report on Wednesday, and weekly jobless claims on Thursday—all paving the way for the most crucial event of the week: the April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, to be released Friday morning. Beyond these reports, several major events are scheduled in the economic calendar: Canada’s federal election on Monday, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, preliminary first-quarter GDP data, pending home sales figures, and the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday—all of which could impact market sentiment. On another front, the China Gold Association reported that gold consumption fell by 5.96% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 290,492 tons. Although gold jewelry demand declined by 26.85%, investment-related gold demand surged by 29.81%, reflecting investors’ pursuit of safe assets amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Domestic gold production in China increased by 1.49%, and assets held in gold ETFs rose sharply by 327.73%, indicating heightened financial caution among Chinese consumers in 2025. A recent report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the downward trend of the U.S. dollar is far from over and that the currency remains significantly overvalued. Jan Hatzius, the bank’s chief economist, stated that despite the dollar’s recent 5% drop, it still stands roughly two standard deviations above its long-term real average since 1973. Historically, such levels have marked the beginning of multi-year correction cycles for the dollar. Similar patterns occurred during the mid-1980s and early 2000s when the U.S. dollar experienced declines of around 25% to 30% following such valuations. Based on this, Goldman Sachs expects a similar scenario to unfold in the coming years. One of the key structural factors fueling this anticipated correction is the portfolio composition of global investors. Specifically, non-U.S. investors hold about $22 trillion worth of assets in the United States, roughly one-third of their total portfolios.Half of these investments are unhedged against currency risk, which could lead to sharp fluctuations in the currency markets if investor sentiment shifts. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that even a modest reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets could significantly lower the dollar’s value. Therefore, they view the dollar’s gradual yet sustained decline not as a temporary fluctuation, but as a long-term structural trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Skeptic | EUR/USD 4H Range Breakout: Key Long & Short TriggersEUR/USD on the 4-hour timeframe is currently trapped in a consolidation box, where a breakout above the ceiling or below the floor could provide excellent trading opportunities. I’m Skeptic , and in this analysis, we’ll dive into EUR/USD across multiple timeframes to identify key long and short triggers. Stick with me until the end for a complete breakdown! 🚀 Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Context 🟢 On the daily chart, EUR/USD remains within an uptrend channel , maintaining a bullish major trend. Recently, after hitting the channel’s upper resistance, the pair corrected toward the midline, a critical support zone within the channel. However, the reaction at the midline lacked strong bullish momentum, leading to a 4-hour range consolidation . This could signal the end of the correction, potentially setting the stage for a continuation of the downmove toward the lower channel boundary. 4-Hour Timeframe: Range Dynamics 🔍 On the 4H chart, EUR/USD is oscillating between 1.13904 (resistance) and 1.13153 (support) . A key observation: after the initial bounce from the 1.13153 support to 1.13904, subsequent tests of this support failed to push back to 1.13904. This indicates waning buyer strength at the 1.13153 support, increasing the likelihood of a breakout below. Additionally, while bullish candles in this range are larger, we’re seeing smaller, frequent green candles, suggesting buyer exhaustion within the box. For traders eyeing a short setup , this weakening support at 1.13153 offers a compelling opportunity. You can take on slightly higher risk by placing a sell-stop order below 1.13153 instead of waiting for a confirmed breakout candle (this is my personal approach). A short trigger would be validated by a break below 1.13153, with RSI entering oversold as a strong confirmation. Short targets: 1.12692, with a potential extension to 1.12006. For a long setup , a breakout above 1.13904 could signal a resumption of bullish momentum, targeting the upper channel boundary on the daily chart. Wait for a confirmed breakout before entering long to avoid false signals. DXY Correlation: Additional Confirmation 📈 Let’s also consider the US Dollar Index (DXY). After a recent rally, DXY has entered a time-based correction, visible as a pullback to a descending yellow trendline. A break below DXY’s support at 99.195 would reinforce our EUR/USD long setup, while a breakout above the trendline and 99.876 would strengthen our EUR/USD short setup. Both scenarios offer sharp price movements with attractive risk-to-reward (R/R) ratios, making these triggers highly actionable. Final Thoughts 🙌 Thanks for joining me in this detailed EUR/USD analysis! I’m Skeptic, and I share daily forex and crypto insights. If you found this useful, please follow for more content! 🔥
by SkepticWise
1
NAS100 - Stock Market Waiting for a New Stimulus?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index continues to move upwards towards the specified supply zone, one can look for further Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, financial markets experienced a brief sigh of relief as U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to ease tensions by signaling a limited retreat in the tariff war with China, sparking hopes for reduced friction. However, this optimism quickly faded once it became clear that Trump’s retreat was neither substantial nor impactful. From Beijing’s perspective, the trade war has transcended economic concerns, becoming an issue of national pride and sovereignty. As a result, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is not retreating as easily as Trump anticipated. This stance has evolved into a significant challenge for the White House. U.S. officials indicated that tariffs of 145% could be reduced within two to three weeks if an agreement is reached. Nonetheless, according to Chinese authorities, negotiations have yet to even begin, raising doubts about Trump’s negotiation tactics. Additionally, other concessions, such as reducing tariffs on American automakers, remain uncertain, and Trump has even threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian car imports. This environment not only fails to clarify U.S. trade policy but also deepens uncertainty for domestic businesses. Although the White House claims it is monitoring markets closely and Trump is eager to strike deals with key partners, these assurances have not alleviated concerns about the future of the U.S. economy. In the upcoming week, critical economic data could either intensify or ease current worries. On Tuesday, the Consumer Confidence Index for April and the JOLTS job openings data for March will be released. The highlight, however, will be the preliminary estimate of GDP growth, scheduled for Wednesday. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.2% annualized contraction in the U.S. economy for Q1 2025. Meanwhile, a Reuters survey of economists projects a modest 0.4% growth rate, a significant slowdown from Q4’s 2.4% growth. Accompanying these reports, the ADP private-sector employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be published. The core PCE for March is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.1% and an annual rise of 2.5%, down from 2.8% previously. Personal spending is anticipated to maintain its 0.4% monthly growth, reflecting resilient household expenditures. Additionally, on Wednesday, the Chicago PMI and pending home sales figures will be released. Thursday will bring the Challenger layoffs data for April, but market focus will be on the ISM manufacturing PMI, expected to drop from 49 to 47.9. The week’s main event will be Friday’s release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Forecasts suggest job growth will slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. Wages are projected to rise by 0.3%.If NFP and PCE data come in weaker than expected, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in June could intensify, although the likelihood of a cut in May will remain low. Such data would likely be bearish for the U.S. dollar but could support equity markets if recession fears do not dominate sentiment. Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that if economic conditions deteriorate significantly, rate cuts could start as early as June. Currently, the Fed has maintained high rates to combat inflation but may lower them to support growth and prevent a sharp rise in unemployment if necessary. Trump’s trade wars pose a dual risk of increasing inflation while hurting employment, complicating the Fed’s monetary policy strategy. Presently, the Fed is in a “wait-and-see” mode, but several officials indicated last week that cuts could begin if economic data worsens. Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, told CNBC on Thursday that the Fed might lower rates starting in June if signs of economic weakening due to Trump’s sporadic tariffs appear. Christopher Waller, a Fed Board member, stated on Bloomberg TV that he could foresee rate cuts if the labor market collapses but does not expect such a scenario before July. On Thursday, Waller remarked, “It would not be surprising to see an increase in layoffs and a higher unemployment rate, especially if major tariffs return. I would expect faster rate cuts once signs of severe labor market deterioration emerge.” These comments highlight the Fed’s current dilemma as it awaits clearer evidence of significant economic fallout from Trump’s trade wars. The Federal Reserve’s mandate is to maintain low inflation and unemployment levels. Its primary tool, the federal funds rate, influences borrowing costs across the economy. The Fed can stimulate growth by lowering rates or curb inflation by raising them. Economists warn that Trump’s tariffs present the risk of simultaneously driving up inflation while damaging employment, forcing the Fed to prioritize which challenge to address first.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. The continuation of Bitcoin's upward movement towards the supply zone will provide us with its next selling position with an appropriate reward to risk. In case of Bitcoin's downward movement towards the specified demand zone, we can look for its next buying positions. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. During the recent trading week, from April 21 to April 25, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $3 billion in capital inflows. This figure marks the second-largest weekly inflow in the history of these ETFs, following the $3.4 billion inflow recorded in November 2024. Thanks to this momentum, Bitcoin managed to climb above the $95,000 mark for the first time since February. Data reveals a notable increase in market participants’ optimism, with bullish posts on social media reaching their highest level since the night of Trump’s election victory on November 5, 2024. More than 7,000 Bitcoins, worth over $500 million, were withdrawn from the Coinbase exchange. This trend could signal institutional accumulation and reflect a strongly bullish sentiment in the market. During the 2018 trade tariff war, Bitcoin experienced a sharp 84.5% collapse, plunging from around $19,400 in December 2017 to approximately $3,000 by December 2018. This price decline coincided with intensifying global trade tensions. However, Bitcoin’s price later rebounded following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and an improvement in liquidity conditions. The attached price chart clearly illustrates Bitcoin’s steep decline between December 2017 and December 2018. According to data released in March 2025, major global corporations have significantly strengthened their presence in the digital asset market. At the top of the list stands MicroStrategy, holding over 500,000 BTC — far surpassing other companies. Following MicroStrategy, companies such as Marathon, Galaxy Digital, Tesla, Coinbase Global, Hut 8 Mining, Riot Platforms, Block, CleanSpark, and Metaplanet respectively hold the largest Bitcoin reserves. This group of key players from technology, mining, and financial services sectors view Bitcoin as a critical part of their long-term strategies.Moreover, between April 7 and April 13, MicroStrategy purchased 3,459 Bitcoins at an average price of $82,618 per coin, totaling $285.8 million.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Ali_PSND
Heading into pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 100.27 1st Support: 98.32 1st Resistance: 101.77 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
DXY Printing a Bullish Triangle??The DXY on the 1 Hr Chart is forming a potential continuation pattern, the Bullish Triangle! Currently Price is testing the 99.6 - 99.8 Resistance Area and battling with the 200 EMA and 34 EMA Band. The reaction to this conjunction could be pivotal in who overcomes: Buyers or Sellers. Now during the formation of the potential pattern, Price on the RSI has stayed relatively Above the 50 mark being Bullish Territory suggesting Buyers could win the Bull-Bear battle. Until Price breaks either the Resistance Area or the Rising Support, we will not have a definitive direction in which USD will strengthen or weaken. *Wait For The Break* -If Price breaks the Resistance Area, USD will strength possibly heading to the 100.8 - 101 Area -If Price breaks the Rising Support, USD will weaken possibly heading to the 98.5 - 98.3 Area Fundamentally, it is said China and USA are possibly getting closer to potentially ending the Reciprocal Tariff War going on with both sides willing to negotiate. With the USA being the #1 Consumer of Goods globally, other economies can not afford us to not buy their things so I continue to see the Tariff War more as a Strong-Arm for the USA to be able to negotiate better terms! USD News: JOLTS - Tuesday, Apr. 29th GDP - Wednesday, Apr. 30th Unemployment Claims / ISM Manu. PMI - Thursday, May 1st Non-Farm Employment Change / Avg Hourly Earnings / Unemployment Rate - Friday, May 2nd For all things Currency, Keep it Current, With Novi_Fibonacci
TVC:DXYLong
by Novi_Fibonacci
3
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EURUSD has pulled back after reaching the top of the ascending channel and encountering a resistance zone. We expect the correction to continue at least toward the identified support level. After completing the correction, a new bullish wave is expected to begin, potentially pushing the price toward higher levels. Will EURUSD resume its uptrend after the pullback? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
7
DXY BREAKOUT IN PLAY — Smart Money is Moving!After a clean falling wedge formation, DXY is showing early signs of bullish momentum. Price action respects the trendline support + bullish orderblock (green zone) beautifully! Next targets: 101.000 — 103.000 zone. Watch for pullback entries before continuation. This is textbook falling wedge breakout behavior — stay sharp! Levels Marked: Support: 99.00 zone Target Zones: 101.000 & 103.000 Breaker structure: Confirmed bullish Save this setup & be prepared!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Greenfireforex
Forex Grid Trading Overview: Practical Guide for 2025Forex Grid Trading Strategy: Detailed Overview & Low-Risk EUR/USD Application 1️⃣ What Is Grid Trading? A grid trading strategy places a series of **buy** and **sell** orders at fixed intervals (“grid levels”) above and below a base price, without forecasting market direction. As price oscillates, it triggers orders across the grid, locking in small profits on each swing. - **No Directional Bias** – Profits on both up- and down-moves - **Automated Entry/Exit** – Ideal for Expert Advisors (EAs) on MT4/MT5 - **Scalable** – Grid size and lot sizing can be tailored to account size and volatility 2️⃣ How It Works – Core Components 1. **Grid Levels** - Define a **base price** (e.g. current EUR/USD mid) - Set **intervals** (e.g. every 20 pips) above/below the base 2. **Orders** - **Buy Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips below base - **Sell Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips above base 3. **Take Profit (TP) for Each Order** - TP typically equals the grid interval (e.g. 20 pips) so each triggered order nets a small profit - No hard Stop Loss per order—risk is managed via overall exposure 4. **Cumulative P&L** - Winning trades roll profits into the floating drawdown of unfilled orders - As price oscillates, the grid “locks in” incremental gains 3️⃣ Pros & Cons | Pros | Cons | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | ✅ Profits in ranging markets | ❌ Can incur large drawdowns in strong trends | | ✅ Automated, systematic execution | ❌ Requires significant margin for multiple open trades | | ✅ Scalable to any time-frame | ❌ Floating negative exposure if grid one-sided | --- ✅Low-Risk Best Practices 1. **Grid Spacing & Width** - Wider grid intervals (e.g. 30–50 pips) reduce order density and margin use - Use **ATR** (Average True Range) to adapt spacing to EUR/USD volatility 2. **Lot Sizing & Equity Risk** - Risk ≤ 1–2% equity per full grid cycle - Use **fixed fractional** sizing: each order size = (Equity × 1%) / (max number of open grid orders) 3. **Drawdown Control** - **Maximum Open Orders** cap (e.g. 5 orders per side) - **Equity Stop-Out**: if floating drawdown exceeds e.g. 10% of equity, close all orders 4. **Trend Filters** - Use a **200-period SMA** or **ADX** filter: only enable sell grid if price < SMA (downtrend) or ADX < 25 (low momentum) - Disables grid in strong one-way trends 5. **Grid Shifting / Re-Base** - After a net grid profit, **shift** the base price to current mid to reset exposure - Prevents runaway open trades far from current price 5️⃣ Step-by-Step: Applying to EUR/USD 1. **Choose Time-Frame** - **H4 or H1** recommended: balances signal frequency and margin needs 2. **Define Grid Parameters** - **Base Price:** current EUR/USD mid (e.g. 1.0980) - **Interval:** 30 pips (≈ recent ATR on H4) - **Levels:** 3 buys at 1.0950 / 1.0920 / 1.0890; 3 sells at 1.1010 / 1.1040 / 1.1070 3. **Set Order Size** - Account equity $10 000, risk 1% = $100 per full grid - Max open orders 6 → each order $100/6 ≈ $16.7 → ≈ 0.02 lots 4. **Configure TP & No SL** - Each order TP = 30 pips (equals interval) - No per-order SL; overall drawdown managed by equity stop 5. **Implement Filters** - Only open **sell** grid if H4 close < 200-SMA; only open **buy** grid if H4 close > 200-SMA - Pause grid if ADX > 30 (strong trend) or market events (e.g. NFP, ECB rate decision) 6. **Deploy & Monitor** - Run on MT4 with an EA or semi-automated Expert Advisor - Monitor margin usage; adjust grid or disable before major news 6️⃣ Example P&L Mechanics | Trigger Price | Order Type | Entry | TP Target | Profit (pips) | |---------------|------------|---------|-----------|---------------| | 1.0950 | Buy Limit | 1.0950 | 1.0980 | 30 | | 1.0980 | Sell Limit | 1.0980 | 1.1010 | 30 | - If price moves down to 1.0950: buy executes, TP at 1.0980 nets +30 pips - If price then climbs above base, sells trigger at 1.1010 nets +30 pips 2️⃣ Introducing Progressive & Regressive Scaling 🔼 2.1 Progressive Scaling “Let winners run”—increase exposure after success Concept: After each profitable grid cycle, step up your lot size by a fixed increment. Why: Capitalizes on momentum and winning streaks. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order (1% equity risk). After grid closes net-positive, next cycle = 0.03 lots. Continue stepping up (0.04, 0.05 …) until a drawdown or equity-stop is hit. Reset back to base lot after a losing cycle or whenever floating drawdown > 5%. Caps & Safeguards: Max Lot Cap: Never exceed 0.10 lots (or 2% equity risk). Equity Stop: If floating drawdown > 10%, close cycle & reset. 🔽 2.2 Regressive Scaling “Protect the downside”—reduce exposure after losses Concept: After a losing grid cycle, step down your lot size to conserve capital. Why: Limits damage during rough periods and preserves margin. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order. If grid hits equity-stop or nets negative, next cycle = 0.015 lots. Continue stepping down (0.01, 0.005) until you record a net-positive cycle. Reset to base lot after recovery (e.g. two consecutive winning cycles). Thresholds: Don’t drop below 0.005 lots (to avoid over-shrinking). After two winning cycles at reduced lot, return to base. ✅ Bottom Line Forex grid trading on EUR/USD can generate steady gains in choppy markets—but demands **strict risk controls** (grid spacing, lot sizing, drawdown limits) and **trend filters** to avoid large losses in trending conditions. When properly applied, a low-risk grid on EUR/USD offers a robust, mostly hands-off strategy for capturing repetitive market swings. 4️⃣ Key Takeaways Progressive Scaling lifts lot sizes on winning streaks, amplifying gains—but must be capped and reset on losses. Regressive Scaling shrinks exposure after drawdowns, preserving capital until the strategy recovers. Combine both with your grid’s risk parameters, trend filter, and a solid equity-stop to maintain a balanced, low-risk EUR/USD grid. By layering scaling rules atop your grid, you adapt dynamically to market performance—maximizing winners and protecting against prolonged losing runs. Good luck! 🚀
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
38
GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory. At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend. Key Points: Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure). Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone. Trade Plan: - Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement. - Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.). - Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure. - Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction. Targets: First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips) Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips) Summary: Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure. See our past GBPUSD setups below: Swing 1: Swing 2: Swing 3:
by WicktatorFX
DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. ✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. ✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅ Break an d close below July 2023 key 100.00 levels. ✅ Foresee a pull back to, weekly imbalance, daily order block, daily 50ema, weekly order block and or weekly 50 ema. ✅ Awaiting to identify a significant break of structure bullish to use the DXY as confluence for our trading week 18 of Q2 toward key points of interest mentioned above. ✅ Forecasting continued bearish pressure long term. ✅Initially bullish outlook however upon price turn around. DXY to break 100.000 level again. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. Pairs to look out for - EURUSD USDCHF USDJPY USDCAD GBPUSD 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
TVC:DXY
by JCFRGNT
2
Interpretation of 4.25 Gold Short-term Operation IdeasFrom the technical analysis of the hourly market, yesterday's low was at $3,306, and the rebound just now showed an obvious stop signal at this position. Based on this, the current short-term suppression level can refer to $3,315, and the higher level is $3,328. For short-term investors, you can consider waiting for the gold price to rebound to around $3,315 to arrange short orders and continue to be bearish on the gold price. The first thing to pay attention to below is the support of the low point just touched at $3,287. If this support level is lost, the next key support level will be $3,260, the first low point on the previous downward journey. If $3,260 is also effectively broken, the short-selling force will be further released, and the gold price may face a larger decline.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
2