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DXY

DXY SINGLING DANGER! UPTADE! Bad things happen when the dollar gets too strong.... Well, "the bad thing" now seems to be the dollar itself crashing lower. What a difference 2 months can make! Waging economic war against our allies, pulling military defense from allies, isolationism has not been working as expected. In fact, Trump has overplayed his cards, and his tactics are backfiring. CAUTION is in order!! Target not reached! Forced on me. As mentioned back on January 18, 2025, when the dollar gets this strong, bad things happen. As you can now all see, bad things did happen. Markets are crashing, and we are headed for an economic depression! WARNING!
TVC:DXYShort
by RealMacro
4
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen! With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming. Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!) Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar. 1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world. 2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper. 3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s. 4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect. 5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified. 6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar. Techanically how high can the USD go? -120 is likely. (hopefully not much more) -Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE! - What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER! We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows. For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
TVC:DXYLong
by RealMacro
2
$NIFTY in bullish momentum. More upside-expectedDuring the last few days, we have been discussing the weakness in the US Dollar and the TVC:DXY index and what it means for the commodities like Gold ( AMEX:GLD ) and Oil ( TVC:USOIL ). But we never discussed the positive effect it has on the emerging markets like $NIFTY. The index NSE:NIFTY which consists of top 50 stocks based on market cap in India is having a positive momentum divergence after touching the lower bound of the upward sloping Fib retracement levels. Here in this blog space on 17th March we posted that NSE:NIFTY looks oversold and we might be ready for a bounce. We favored going long NSE:NIFTY at 22000. Since then, the RSI bottomed and we up 8% form the lows of 22032. If we still follow the Fib levels from the last blog, the charts are telling us that we might be headed to 25000 before having any meaning full pullback. The index internals look healthy with RSI hovering around 50 and not in overbought territory. And the tailwind to all this is still the US Dollar story. Here we are targeting 95 in the TVC:DXY on a short-term basis. This might push NSE:NIFTY to 25000 and beyond. Verdict : NSE:NIFTY rally continues to 25000; TVC:DXY to 95.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by RabishankarBiswal
$NIFTY in bullish momentum. More upside-expectedDuring the last few days, we have been discussing the weakness in the US Dollar and the TVC:DXY index and what it means for the commodities like Gold ( AMEX:GLD ) and Oil ( TVC:USOIL ). But we never discussed the positive effect it has on the emerging markets like $NIFTY. The index NSE:NIFTY which consists of top 50 stocks based on market cap in India is having a positive momentum divergence after touching the lower bound of the upward sloping Fib retracement levels. Here in this blog space on 17th March we posted that NSE:NIFTY looks oversold and we might be ready for a bounce. We favored going long NSE:NIFTY at 22000. Since then, the RSI bottomed and we up 8% form the lows of 22032. If we still follow the Fib levels from the last blog, the charts are telling us that we might be headed to 25000 before having any meaning full pullback. The index internals look healthy with RSI hovering around 50 and not in overbought territory. And the tailwind to all this is still the US Dollar story. Here we are targeting 95 in the TVC:DXY on a short-term basis. This might push NSE:NIFTY to 25000 and beyond. Verdict : NSE:NIFTY rally continues to 25000; TVC:DXY to 95.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by RabishankarBiswal
DXY The Fake Dance- One of the most important barometers for global currencies and markets in the world. - Most of the time DXY is a well used machine to supress markets (forex, stocks, cryptos, etc..) - When they don't start the printing machine, DXY keeps is strength. - When they start to print DXY starts to dip and markets boom up. - it's really basic and based on "BRRR Machine". - i had a hard time to decrypt this fake peace of resilience. - actually there's none visible divergences on the 1M or 3M Timeframes. - So i decided to push my analysis to 6M Timeframe and noticed few things : - You can notice that from 2008 ( Post crises ), DXY was in a perma bullish trend. - So now check MACD and will notice this fake move on January 2021 ( in graph the red ? ) - MACD was about to cross down, columns smaller and smaller, then a Pump from nowhere lol. - i rarely saw that in my trading life on a 6M Timeframe. - So to understand more this trend, i used ADX (Average Directional Index) - ADX is used to determine when the price is trending strongly. - In many cases, it is the ultimate trend indicator. - So if you look well ADX columns, you will notice that a strong divergence is on the way. - First check the Yellow Doted Line in July 2022 when DXY reached 115ish and look the size of the green columns. - Now check today (red doted Line), and look again the ADX green columns is higher, but DXY diped to 105ish. - So like always, i can be wrong, but i bet on a fast DXY dip soon or later. - it's possible to fake pumps, but it's harder to fake traders. Happy Tr4Ding !
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by thecryer
5
DXY Is Bullish! Buy! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 99.408. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 101.388 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD Holds Below 3-Year HighsAs the U.S. dollar lingers near 3-year lows, the euro is testing 3-year highs—holding critical resistance zone at 1.1520. This level marks a pivotal point, further challenging the broader downtrend that has shaped the EUR/USD chart since 2008. A confirmed breakout above 1.1520 could open the door to further upside toward 1.17 and 1.20, revisiting the highs last seen in 2021. Should the euro fail to break higher and begin to retreat, key support levels to watch include 1.1270, 1.1140, 1.1000, and 1.0920. A potential pullback may be amplified if overbought momentum begins to fade—particularly as the current 3-day RSI levels echo those last observed in 2020. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Perfect trade setup: $GLD to 325; DXY to 95Gold has been in a raging bull market since 2023 with the index making new higher highs and higher lows as shown in the weekly candle stick chart. In contrast the Dollar index TVC:DXY is making new lows every single day shown in dark blue line chart. In this blog space we have been continuously talking about the weakness in the Dollar and the major support and resistance levels in TVC:DXY for more than 3 months. As the TVC:DXY is below the psychological level of 100 and most probably heading lower where 95 is the key support level, I think the time for commodities like Gold has arrived. SPY Gold Spot ETF AMEX:GLD has made an ATH of 302 which is above the key psychological level of 300. In my opinion AMEX:GLD is not done going up. If we plot the Fib retracement levels for the previous bear market ending in 2022, we see that AMEX:GLD can effectively reach 325 level which is the 4.236 fib level. This will indicate another 7% upside, a similar amount of potential downside in the $DXY. Verdict: Long AMEX:GLD , Short TVC:DXY until trend reversal.
AMEX:GLDLong
by RabishankarBiswal
1
USD Price Action Correlation with Bitcoin PriceIn the later stages of the liquidity cycle you have a devaluation of USD leading to bitcoin breaking out of its bullish trend into a parabolic trend. -Last 2 cycles this predictive correlation leaded bitcoins breakout by 4 to 6 months. -Current cycle DXY/Bitcoin charts look very similar to 2018 Taking this correlation into account, we could likely see the bullish trend on Bitcoin transform into a parabolic trend sometime between May and June. Meaning, we are in the final stages of a bottoming in Bitcoin at the time of this post, likely about to continue bullish momentum as we just went through significate market strain. Removing the possibilities of another Black Swan event, like a major geopolitical event but it is my belief that this was already priced in from the markets reaction just this month. This being said, there are no certainties. Things could always get worse. Time will tell, but given my aforementioned annalists, the buying opportunity at this current point is to great to ignore. Reward greatly outweighing the risk.
TVC:DXYLong
by merchtank19
XAUUSD: Gold is making new highs!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand ranges will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range. • Revised Year-End Outlook: The bank attributes the bullish outlook to increased central bank purchases, inflows into gold ETFs, and continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. • Risk Scenario: Should the Fed shift course due to concerns over U.S. debt or weakening confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency, gold could climb to $4,500 per ounce. One of the major forces behind this rally has been the weakening U.S. dollar under the Trump administration. Market participants are voicing three primary concerns fueling this sentiment: subpar U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation, and declining productivity. These fears stem from several core issues: 1. Tariffs: While intended to support domestic industry, tariffs are increasingly viewed as disruptive, raising fears of inflationary shocks and fragile supply chains—lessons painfully learned during the COVID era. 2. Economic Growth: Trump’s original growth agenda, centered on tax cuts and deregulation, has been overshadowed by other political developments. Many economists are uneasy about a government that seems willing to defy conventional economic principles—raising fears of repeating the failures of protectionist policies. 3. Budget Deficits: The U.S. is running a staggering 7% budget deficit relative to GDP despite low unemployment (~4%). This raises questions about how Trump’s proposed policies would be funded. 4. Erosion of International Norms: The U.S. dollar’s dominance relies on institutions like NATO, the WTO, and the United Nations, as well as global faith in the rule of law. These foundations are reportedly weakening. There are also emerging concerns from places like Beijing, pointing to American vulnerabilities—especially around intellectual property. In a world where IP rights are no longer respected, what value do American corporations really have? 5. Immigration: It remains unclear how much of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is substantive versus symbolic. What is clear, however, is that undocumented migrants have played a crucial role in suppressing inflation in key sectors like agriculture and hospitality. Without a clear plan to replace this workforce, cost pressures could intensify.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
3
USDCAD - Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged!The USDCAD pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. The continuation of the downward movement of this pair will provide us with a buying position with a good risk-reward ratio. If the correction continues, we can sell within the specified supply zone. On Wednesday, oil prices climbed by approximately 1%, driven by renewed optimism in the markets regarding potential trade talks between the United States and China. However, lingering concerns about the trade war’s negative effects on global energy demand limited further gains in oil prices.Initially, oil prices declined, but market sentiment shifted after Bloomberg reported—citing an anonymous source—that China was seeking greater respect from the Trump administration before agreeing to new negotiations. The same source also stated that China had requested a new outreach from the U.S. to initiate the discussions. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, commented that easing trade tensions between the two nations could help reduce constraints on economic growth and energy demand, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand is expected to rise by just 730,000 barrels per day this year—well below both its previous projections and those of OPEC. In a new report, the Fitch rating agency warned that the intensifying global trade war has significantly weakened the outlook for economic growth. According to the report, China’s economic growth will fall below 4% in both this year and the next, while the eurozone is projected to grow by less than 1%. Fitch further estimates that global economic growth in 2025 will fall below 2%, marking the weakest performance since 2009 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period). Despite the sharp decline in the U.S. growth outlook, Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to delay any interest rate cuts until Q4 of 2025. Conversely, deeper rate cuts are anticipated for the European Central Bank and emerging market economies. In the energy sector, Fitch lowered its short-term oil price forecast due to risks stemming from weaker demand and trade disruptions but left its natural gas price forecast unchanged. Additionally, the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.75%. Highlights from the Bank’s monetary statement include: • Tariffs and logistical challenges are driving price increases. • New U.S. trade policies have heightened uncertainty, slowed growth, and sparked inflation fears. • The Bank supports economic growth with inflation control but urges caution due to elevated domestic risks. • Both upside risks (higher costs) and downside risks (weaker growth) to inflation are under close watch. • Beginning in April, the removal of carbon taxes and cheaper oil are expected to temporarily lower inflation for about a year. • The recent rise in inflation reflects renewed commodity price growth and the end of temporary sales tax relief. • Due to high uncertainty related to U.S. trade tariffs, the Bank is refraining from issuing an economic forecast. • The output gap in Q1 2025 was estimated between 0% and -1%. • Annualized GDP growth for the same quarter was 1.8%, down from the January forecast of 2%. • Two scenarios are under consideration: one involving tariff reduction via agreement, and another involving a prolonged global trade war. • In the first scenario, Canadian and global growth temporarily decline, inflation drops to 1.5%, and later returns to the 2% target. • In the second, the global economy slows sharply, inflation surges, and Canada enters a severe recession. Inflation surpasses 3% by mid-2026 before returning to the 2% target. • In both scenarios, the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around the midpoint of the 2.25%–3.25% range.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD Fundamental Update (17.04.2025)The GBP/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 1.3320 2nd Resistance – 1.3369 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
19
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see . The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone. 📌 Here’s what I’m watching: 107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance. 105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels. 👀 My Take: If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider. What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥 🚨 Disclaimer: Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumFusion
1
S&P 500 Index Goes 'Death Crossed' Again, Due To Unruly EconomyThe "Death Cross" is a technical chart pattern signaling potential bearish momentum in the US stock market, occurring when a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day) crosses below a long-term moving average (usually the 200-day). Despite its foreboding name, historical data shows its implications are often less dire than perceived, serving as a coincident indicator of market weakness rather than a definitive predictor of collapse. Historical Examples and Market Impact The death cross gained notoriety for preceding major market downturns: 2000 Dot-Com Bubble: The Nasdaq Composite’s death cross in June 2000 coincided with the burst of the tech bubble, leading to a prolonged bear market. 2008 Financial Crisis: The S&P 500’s death cross in December 2007 foreshadowed the 2008 crash, with the index losing over 50% of its value by early 2009. 2020 COVID-19 Crash: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2020 amid pandemic-driven panic, though markets rebounded sharply within months. 2022 Ukraine's War Crisis: The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 all formed death crosses in March 2022 due to proinflationary surge on Ukraine's war and Arab-Israel conflict, leading to a prolonged bear market within next twelve months, up to March quarter in the year 2023. These examples highlight the pattern’s association with extreme volatility, but its predictive power is inconsistent. For instance, the 2022 death cross in the S&P 500—its first in two years—occurred amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical tensions, yet the market stabilized within weeks rather than entering a prolonged downturn. Perspectives on Reliability and Use Cases While the death cross reflects deteriorating short-term momentum, its utility depends on context: Lagging Nature: As a lagging indicator, it confirms existing trends rather than forecasting new ones. The 50-day average crossing below the 200-day often occurs after prices have already declined. False Signals: Post-2020 data shows the S&P 500 gained an average of 6.3% one year after a death cross, with Nasdaq Composite returns doubling typical averages six months post-cross. Combined Analysis: Traders pair it with metrics like trading volume or MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to validate signals. Higher selling volume during a death cross strengthens its bearish case. Strategic Implications for Investors For market participants, the death cross serves as a cautionary tool rather than a standalone sell signal: Short-Term Traders: May use it to hedge long positions or initiate short bets, particularly if corroborated by weakening fundamentals. Long-Term Investors: Often treat it as a reminder to reassess portfolio diversification, especially during elevated valuations or macroeconomic uncertainty. Contrarian Opportunities: Historical rebounds post-death cross—such as the 7.2% Nasdaq gain three months after the signal—suggest potential buying opportunities for risk-tolerant investors. Fundamental Challenge Stocks Extend Drop as Powell Sees Economy ‘Moving Away’ From Fed Goals Powell sees economy ‘moving away’ from job, price goals due to Trump's tariff chainsaw. Fed well positioned to wait for policy clarity. Strong jobs market depends on price stability, he adds. Stocks extend declines, bonds rally as Fed chair speaks. Conclusion The "Death Cross" remains a contentious yet widely monitored pattern. Its dramatic name and association with past crises amplify its psychological impact, but empirical evidence underscores its role as one of many tools in technical analysis. Investors who contextualize it with broader market data—such as earnings trends, interest rates, and macroeconomic indicators—are better positioned to navigate its signals. While it may foreshadow turbulence, its historical track record emphasizes resilience, with markets often recovering losses within months of the pattern’s appearance. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎 // Think Big. Risk Less
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch