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Economic Cycles

META: Price Entropy🏛️ Research Notes Recent rejection from LH could be explained by spike out of scale, which in its turn was caused by buildup of counter force while correcting. Those two are part of progression which was wired by longer selloff cycle. If we scale back further, we would confirm overall structure's capacity set by growth patterns. Those boundaries and space between them can be interpreted as supply zones, leaving us with this particular interconnection: Though the object of observation would be the recent developments at minimal TF for publication (15m), so temporal patterns and cycle-derived levels can be thoroughly studies.
NASDAQ:META
by fract
3
Nasdaq US100 Wave 3 Expansion Toward 31,606 in PlayNasdaq US100 has completed a significant wave cycle with a confirmed wave 1 in the broader Elliott Wave structure. Following this, price underwent a corrective wave 2 that extended from the $22,237 supply zone down to $16,334, marking the conclusion of the previous cycle’s correction. This structure now signals the initiation of a fresh upward impulse, setting the stage for a powerful wave 3 advance. The emergence of wave 3 will gain full confirmation once price successfully breaks above the external supply zone, reclaiming $22,237. If this breakout occurs with sustained momentum, the wave 3 projection targets an expansion toward $31,606, which aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the prior cycle. This forthcoming rally is anticipated to unfold in a five-subwave format, indicative of a high-momentum bullish leg. As long as price action remains above the key support at $16,334, the bullish cycle remains valid. All eyes should now be on the breakout structure and volume profile around $22,237, as it represents the gateway to a much broader impulsive move.
CLong
by weslad
6
SOLUSDT 1D - Bulls back in control with Golden Cross and channelOn the daily chart, SOLUSDT is forming a bullish continuation structure. After the Golden Cross (MA50 crossing MA200), the price is now pulling back toward the midline of the ascending channel and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 166.38. This confluence with the broken trendline and 200 EMA makes this zone a prime technical area of interest. Support: 166.38 (0.5 Fibo), EMA200 (161.77), broken trendline Resistance: 182.84–189.67 (Fibo 0.705–0.79), 206.54, target - 255.93 (Fibo 1.618) This retracement looks healthy, supported by higher volume during the prior bullish leg. As long as the 166.38–161.77 zone holds, continuation toward 206.54 and potentially 255.93 is on the table. Fundamentally, Solana remains a key L1 narrative with strong traction in DePIN and AI-linked dApps. The rising TVL and investor sentiment support the trend. Watch price action around 166 for confirmation - this is the battleground.
Long
by TotoshkaTrades
ARUSDT Gearing Up for a Powerful Wave 3 LaunhARUSDT has completed its corrective phase via a well defined ending diagonal, followed by a strong impulsive move completing wave 1. Price recently tested a significant supply zone, leading to a sharp retracement toward $4.48, aligning with the previous bottom structure. This zone is projected to form the immediate base, and our plan is to accumulate within this range, targeting the anticipated wave iii, historically known as the strongest and most extended move in the Elliott Wave sequence. The entry plan and potential targets are clearly outlined on the chart. Feel free to share your view.
by weslad
1
NSDL (INTRESTING STOCK )👉🏻 NSDL – Equity Snapshot 👈🏻 🕛 Conclusion ⏱️ NSDL stands at a strategic inflection point — evolving from an institutionally heavy, legacy infrastructure provider to a retail and digitally agile depository. With a zero-debt model, strong cash flows, and clear retail growth plans underway, NSDL shows potential for steady earnings expansion and margin improvement over the next few years. The foundation is strong; execution will now drive the delta. 🙋🏻 Introduction India’s largest depository by value, with over ₹450 lakh crore in Assets Under Custody (AUC). Founded in 1996, primarily serving institutional and corporate clients. Known for stability, trust, and core infrastructure services in the capital market. 🌸 Financial Performance (FY25)🌸 Total Revenue: ₹1,535 crore. Depository Business Revenue: ₹660 crore (Approx. 43% share). Operating Margin (Core Business): ~50%. Net Margin: 22% – 24%. Net Profit: ₹330+ crore. Free Cash Flow: ₹558 crore+. Debt: Zero (Fully debt-free). Capital Expenditure: ~₹74 crore only (Low capex model). 🌸 Market Position🌸 Dominates in value terms (highest AUC in India). Client base includes mutual funds, banks, insurers, and corporates. Retail demat accounts: ~4 crore (behind CDSL’s 15+ crore). High average demat account size (~₹1,100 crore) vs CDSL’s retail-heavy base. Gaining ground in retail via partnerships with Zerodha, Groww, Angel One, etc. 🌸 Future Growth Focus🌸 Aggressively entering retail segment through schemes like ‘YUVA Plan’. Enabling paperless, digital onboarding for faster account growth. Investing in blockchain, T+1 settlements, and smart compliance tools. Actively participating in SEBI & RBI-led digitization (e-KYC, e-insurance, GIFT city). Expanding subsidiaries (NDML, NPBL) to boost recurring income beyond core biz. 🌸 Key Positives🌸 Strong free cash flow, high annuity-based revenue visibility. Lean, tech-driven operations with low employee cost base. Well-positioned to benefit from India’s growing retail investor base. Diversified, recurring revenue streams through subsidiaries. Digital-first strategy ensures scalable, low-cost growth ahead.
BLong
by Tap_trader
SPK : Does history repeat itself?Hello friends🙌 ✅You see that once a pattern was formed and after the resistance was broken, we had a good growth. ✅Now the same pattern has formed again and the price is in the accumulation phase. ✅We have to see if history repeats itself and if the buyers support the price again or not. ✅We have obtained important support areas for you, so that if it falls, you can buy in steps and if the pattern breaks, you can buy in steps right here, of course with capital and risk management. 🔥Follow us for more signals🔥 *Trade safely with us*
Long
by TheHunters_Company
LTC Could Be Gearing Up for a Massive Wave 3 post 1-2, 1-2 Litecoin (LTC) appears to have completed a 1-2, 1-2 wave pattern, a classic bullish setup in Elliott Wave theory that often precedes an explosive move. This nested formation signals strong internal momentum, where both the higher and lower degree structures are aligned for upside. If the count holds, LTC is now positioned to launch into Wave 3 of the larger Wave 3 — typically the most powerful and extended rally in the entire wave cycle.
C
by wavetraders
1
The $CURE For Your Healthcare PortfolioHey team, Everyone knows how the health sector is beat up. The Trump administration hasn't shown any mercy to the health and pharma sectors. They’ve been hammering Big Pharma with a mix of fiery rhetoric and aggressive policy moves. Trump has brought back his “most favored nation” drug pricing plan, tying Medicare reimbursements to what other countries pay, slashing profits for drugmakers who’ve been charging Americans a fortune. As a result, some of the top health stocks such as NYSE:PFE , NYSE:LLY , NYSE:JNJ , and NYSE:UNH , among many others, have been suffering. We need, however, to understand that healthcare is sometimes cyclical, and there are some clues that tell us what's likely to happen next: For most years, AMEX:XLV (health index ETF) is highly correlated with the $SP:SPX. Historically, when this correlation breaks, it's either because healthcare is lagging behind the S&P 500, or because the S&P 500 is crashing, and healthcare is holding well because healthcare is recession-resistant. Typically, these moments of uncorrelation are followed by a very well-performing healthcare sector. AMEX:XLV / SP:SPX is now at a 25-year low! Healthcare stocks have never been so low in 25 years compared to the benchmark. While the S&P P/E ratio is at 28, healthcare is at 14. This shows a potentially underdeveloped sector. The spread between healthcare and the rest of the stock market is very large and unnatural. Considering this, it's more likely that it will regress to its mean and recover. You can see this in the Dual Z-Score indicator in the chart. Additionally, the US midterms are coming, which can bring policy changes that might favor healthcare again. Now, you might be wondering: Why invest in AMEX:CURE and not in AMEX:XLV ? I plan to allocate around 2% of my portfolio to CURE, the 3x leveraged ETF, because it's an easier way to achieve the proper Kelly allocation to this sector, a sector that I believe will recover over the next couple of years. The leverage provided by this ETF will help compound returns. Is this strategy risky? Well, CURE is 3x more volatile than XLV, but this is the way I see it: healthcare is already too beat up to continue declining sharply from here. Additionally, healthcare is recession-resistant, meaning that it should not be too affected if the US economy suffers, enters a recession, or if unemployment numbers increase. I think CURE gives me a potentially good risk/reward ratio, considering that if healthcare catches up with the S&P 500, CURE could return approximately (and very roughly) 100%. Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
SLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
5
Beach Energy (BPT.ASX): Long-Term Compression Near Historical Su📚 Description This monthly chart of Beach Energy (BPT.ASX) reveals a multi-decade compression pattern forming near historical support levels. With price currently at 1.140 AUD, the setup invites a macro-technical perspective for long-term positioning. 🔍 Key Observations • Historical Range: Since 1991, BPT has oscillated between deep cyclical lows and explosive rallies, often tied to oil price cycles and domestic energy policy. • Compression Zone: Price action since 2011 shows tightening volatility, forming a descending triangle with support around 1.10–1.15 AUD. • Volume Profile: Recent monthly candles show declining volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution. • Oscillators:• Momentum indicators (values: 50.97, 44.32, 15.76) show divergence — a potential early signal of reversal. • Red and blue lines suggest a crossover setup forming, historically a precursor to trend shifts. 🌏 Macroeconomic Angle Australia’s energy sector is undergoing a structural shift, and Beach Energy sits at the intersection of several key trends: 🛢️ Oil Price Trends • Global oil prices remain volatile, but long-term supply constraints and geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East, Russia) support elevated price floors. • BPT’s historical rallies often coincide with Brent crude surges — a macro tailwind worth monitoring. 🚢 LNG Export Dynamics • Australia is one of the world’s top LNG exporters, and demand from Asia (Japan, South Korea, China) continues to grow. • Beach Energy’s exposure to domestic gas and LNG infrastructure positions it to benefit from rising export volumes and favorable pricing contracts. • Government policy shifts toward energy security and decarbonization may further support domestic producers. 📈 Inflation & Rate Cycles • As central banks pivot from tightening to neutral or easing, energy equities often outperform due to their inflation-hedging characteristics. • BPT’s low valuation and asset base make it a potential beneficiary of capital rotation into hard assets. --- 🧠 Educational Insight This chart is a textbook example of long-term compression in commodity-linked equities. Traders and investors can use this to: • Understand how macro cycles (e.g., oil prices, energy demand) reflect in equity price structure. • Apply monthly timeframe analysis to filter out noise and identify strategic entry zones. • Combine volume, oscillator divergence, and price structure for higher conviction setups. 🛠️ Potential Strategy • Watch for breakout above descending resistance (~1.20 AUD) with volume confirmation. • Risk management: Stop below historical support (~1.05 AUD). • Target zones: 1.40 AUD (swing), 1.80 AUD (macro breakout). Not financial advice.
A
by Parsaj
META: Testing Alternative Interconnection TypeResearch Notes Given expression like this: Fractal Corridors can be used for horizontal perspective of the same pattern manifestation. Alternative frames of reference exposes how historic swings of various magnitude in some way wire the following price dynamics. www.tradingview.com helps to seek a matching commonality in angles of trends which gives a hint how structure evolves in multi-scale perspective. I use both when it comes to working with complex waves and making interconnections through fibonacci ratios. To define emerging wave's limits (probable amplitude), I'll test classic rule of Support/Resistance shift in fibs. (When resistance becomes support or vice versa) By theory it means a trendline can also shift like that. In our case this can be applied as: Fibocnacci Structure:
NASDAQ:META
by fract
2
$AAPL: Structure SurgeryResearch Notes Original Structure: Altering structure for experimental purposes Angle of fib channels that rises from cycle low, has been pushed into the past to the top of first major reaction. blue area resembles the change Reason The the angle of Fibonacci channels which cover the general decline (from perspective of ATH to end of cycle), are adjusted to the angle of the first bear wave of smaller scale. Therefore, when it comes to measurements of opposing forces for working out interference pattern, having this symmetric approach of mapping interconnections is fair.
N
by fract