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EURUSD Breakdown or Double Bottom? Catalysts at Jackson Hole!EURUSD has broken below the key 1.16 support ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, raising the stakes for both bulls and bears as markets become more aware of the likelihood of a hawkish stance. But will it be the case? Let's see what the possible scenarios are at play. Bearish Catalysts : Hawkish Fed Signals: Recent FOMC minutes and a potential hawkish tone from Chair Powell could push EURUSD lower. Rate cut odds for December have dropped sharply, and further Fed focus on inflation may accelerate downside. Technical Breakdown: The loss of 1.16 opens the door to 1.1530, 1.1460, and possibly 1.14. No clear bullish divergence on RSI suggests more downside risk. Geopolitical Risks: Uncertainty around the Ukraine ceasefire could weigh further on the euro. Bullish Catalysts : Oversold Conditions: EURUSD is approaching oversold territory, with a potential double bottom forming near 1.1530/1.1460. Dovish Surprise: If Powell signals concerns over the labour market or hints at a pause, a short-covering rally could target 1.16 and above. ECB Commentary: Any unexpected hawkishness from ECB President Lagarde could support the euro. Key Levels to Watch : Support: 1.1530, 1.1460, 1.1400 Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1660 Trading Plan : Volatility is likely post-symposium. Bears may look for breakdowns and rallies to resistance for entries, while bulls might watch for reversal signals at key supports if the Fed surprises dovishly. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
1
EURUSD Bears Regain Control as Dollar Strength Holds FirmEURUSD is showing fresh signs of exhaustion after its recent bounce, struggling to hold momentum against a resilient U.S. dollar. Price action has rejected trendline resistance and is now threatening to extend lower toward key demand zones. With the ECB battling slowing growth while the Fed remains cautious but firm, EURUSD faces mounting pressure to the downside. Current Bias Bearish – rejection at resistance keeps the pair vulnerable to further downside toward 1.1600 and potentially 1.1410. Key Fundamental Drivers U.S. dollar demand supported by safe-haven flows and relatively strong U.S. economic data. ECB’s dovish tilt as growth falters in the Eurozone, limiting scope for additional rate hikes. Differentials in monetary policy continue to favor the USD over the EUR in the medium term. Macro Context Interest rate expectations: The Fed is expected to keep rates higher for longer, maintaining a hawkish edge, while the ECB faces pressure to slow policy tightening given weak Eurozone growth. Economic growth: U.S. growth remains more resilient than Europe’s, with Eurozone industrial and consumer sectors showing signs of fatigue. Commodity flows: Lower European energy demand and potential disruptions in global gas/oil trade leave the euro vulnerable. Geopolitical themes: Trade tariffs, global slowdown risks, and U.S.–EU policy divergence all weigh on the single currency. Primary Risk to the Trend A surprise hawkish shift from the ECB or softer-than-expected U.S. data could reignite EUR upside momentum and squeeze shorts. Most Critical Upcoming News/Event ECB policy meeting minutes (guidance on growth vs. inflation trade-off) U.S. PMI & jobless claims (gauging the Fed’s stance on growth resilience) Leader/Lagger Dynamics EURUSD is a leader pair in the FX market, often dictating overall USD sentiment. Movements here influence correlated assets such as DXY, gold, and EUR-crosses like EURJPY and EURNZD. Key Levels Support Levels: 1.1606, 1.1410 Resistance Levels: 1.1710, 1.1797 Stop Loss (SL): 1.1800 Take Profit (TP): 1.1606 (first target), 1.1410 (extended target) Summary: Bias and Watchpoints EURUSD continues to lean bearish, with rejection from resistance and a weakening Eurozone macro backdrop providing downside pressure. The bias favors further losses toward 1.1606, with extended downside into the 1.1410 region if bearish momentum accelerates. A stop loss above 1.1800 provides protection against a breakout reversal. Traders should closely monitor ECB commentary and U.S. data releases, as any divergence from expectations could quickly shift momentum. Until then, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Short
by ultreosforex
EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D21 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D21 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD(20250821) Today's AnalysisMarket Update: This week, central bankers from around the world gathered in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual global central bank meeting. They planned not only to exchange research and enjoy the beautiful mountain scenery, but also to defend Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell has come under sustained attack from US President Trump for his refusal to cut interest rates. Trump has also promised to replace Powell with a more compliant candidate after his term ends next year. This offensive has unnerved global policymakers, who worry that central bank independence, seen as key to controlling inflation, could be undermined. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.1648 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.1699 1.1680 1.1668 1.1628 1.1616 1.1597 Trading Strategy: On a break above 1.1668, consider entering a buy position, with the first target at 1.1680. On a break below 1.1648, consider entering a sell position, with the first target at 1.1628.
Short
by Financialfreedom11
1
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips AgainMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Again EUR/USD declined from 1.1720 and traded below 1.1650. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro started a fresh decline after a decent move above 1.1680. - There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD, the pair rallied above the 1.1680 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below 1.1660 against the US Dollar. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.1650, and a low was formed near 1.1622. After that, the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above 1.1630. EUR/USD is now trading below 1.1650 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the pair is now facing hurdles near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1692 swing high to the 1.1622 low at 1.1640. The next key resistance is 1.1655 and the 50% Fib retracement. The main barrier for the bulls could be 1.1665. A clear move above 1.1665 could send the pair toward 1.1690. An upside break above 1.1690 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward the 1.1720 zone. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1620. The next important region for buyers sits at 1.1600. If there is a downside break below 1.1600, the pair could drop toward 1.1550. Any more losses might send the pair toward 1.1500. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD is slow moving. Wait for more factors to enter orders✏️ EURUSD is trading in a consolidation range, the trend to trade at the moment is not there. Wait for clearer momentum at resistance or support zones to set up Orders. 1.154 plays an important support role at the moment of the bullish wave structure, it is the confluence point of the Trendline and the support zone of the BUY side. In the opposite direction, the resistance 1.171 plays the role of the upper boundary of the price channel. 📉 Key Levels BUY Trigger Rejection at support1.154 BUY DCA Trigger Breakout of resistance 1.171 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
by VHT_Trader
8
EURUSD Short, 20 AugustHTF Bearish Bias with Decisional OB HTF trend remains cleanly bearish on both 4H and Daily, keeping downside pressure in play. 📈 HTF Confluence: 📉 4H + Daily bearish structure ❌ No EMA/OB support, market aligned for continuation down 📉 LTF Setup: 💤 Asia session low interaction 🧩 Price reacts strongly from 15m Decisional OB inside Asia range ⚡ DXY supports downside after tapping its own decisional OB 🎯 Entry refined at 15m imbalance retrace, confirmed by a clean 1m BOS 🎯 Entry Plan: 🔑 Entry: 15m imbalance retest after 1m BOS 🛡️ SL: Above 15m OB (tight control, small risk) 💰 Risk: Aggressive 0.5% (test position) 📌 TP: Targeting liquidity continuation beyond Asia range lows
Short
by sTax11
EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D20 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Bullish Structure Break: Watching for Pullback EntryI’m closely monitoring EURUSD 📊, where price action is starting to show a bullish structure break 📈, signaling potential upside 🔝. On the 30-minute chart ⏱️, I’m watching for a pullback into the imbalance zone ⚖️ highlighted in the video 🎥. As long as price holds above the low of that imbalance range ⬇️, I’ll be looking for a potential long opportunity 🚀💡. (Not financial advice).
Long
by fxtraderanthony
EURUSD prices consolidate, ready to pullbackEURUSD prices consolidate, ready to pullback On Tuesday, the dollar took a small hike against other major currencies as markets digested some news about a White House meeting with European countries regarding the conflict in Ukraine. This meeting could determine what happens next in the conflict. Tina Teng, an analyst, said that markets are being careful and there's a bit of a risk-avoidant mood. Stock indices hit record highs, which boosted the dollar. If there's an agreement on Ukraine, it could shift the burden to Europe, leading to money leaving the euro and pound and strengthening the dollar even more. Also, people are focusing on the Jackson Hole conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will talk about interest rates. Technically, EURUSD price has formed a bearish wedge. Bearish divergence on RSI is highlighted. The price is ready to drop towards 1.15000 level as a first target.
Short
by ProfessorSingapore
EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D19 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | D19 | Y25 Daily Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FX:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | Y25📊 EURUSD – WEEKLY FORECAST Q3 | W34 | Y25 Weekly Forecast 🔍📅 Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈 Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭. It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias. This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us. 📈 Risk Management Protocols 🔑 Core principles: Max 1% risk per trade Only execute at pre-identified levels Use alerts, not emotion Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2 🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk. 🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight "Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants." Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work. FRGNT FX:EURUSD
Long
by JCFRGNT
1
EUR/USD at a Crossroads as Momentum ShiftsThe dollar’s bull run appears to be fading, with the euro seemingly leading the charge. The EUR/USD is on the cusp of breaking out again and could potentially push back to its highs around 1.182. The EUR/USD is now approaching a downtrend line which, if broken, would suggest the currency has broken out to the upside and may advance further. The relative strength index is also showing signs of a momentum shift, having broken above its own downtrend and moved back above 50. It could be argued that the EUR/USD has formed a falling broadening wedge, a bullish pattern that behaves much like a bull flag. If this proves correct, then a 100% extension of the pattern could see the pair rise back to 1.212 over the longer term. A failure to break above resistance could see the EUR/USD tumble lower, potentially back to the lower end of the megaphone pattern, towards technical support at 1.120. That would represent a significant drop and would also confirm that the EUR/USD is in the process of forming lower highs and lower lows, which would be very bearish for the pair in the near term. However, the recent shift in momentum, as measured by the RSI, suggests that a breakout to higher levels is currently favoured. Should the RSI falter, begin to move lower, and fall back below 50, it would confirm the bearish scenario. Until that occurs, momentum appears to be shifting towards a more bullish outlook. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.   Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
by cmcmarkets
EUR/USD Shows Optimism Ahead of Trump–Putin MeetingEUR/USD Shows Optimism Ahead of Trump–Putin Meeting The meeting between the Presidents of the United States and the Russian Federation, scheduled for today in Alaska, is a major geopolitical event with the potential to exert a significant influence on financial markets. Expectations are mounting that the talks could lead to a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine – a prospect acting as a bullish factor for the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD chart has been displaying an upward trajectory this week (highlighted by the blue channel). The blue arrow indicates that: → Yesterday’s release of the highest Producer Price Index (PPI) figures in three years triggered a sharp strengthening of the US dollar – possibly because market participants assumed the Federal Reserve might postpone monetary policy easing in light of rising producer prices (widely considered a consequence of Trump’s tariff measures). → However, the lower boundary of the upward channel prevented further decline, and today EUR/USD is showing optimism ahead of the presidential meeting. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On 7 August, we plotted a descending channel based on the sequence of lower highs and lows formed over the summer. From the bearish perspective, the price is currently near a cluster of key resistance levels, which include: → the upper boundary of the descending (red) channel; → the 1.17145 level (a historical price interaction zone, as shown by the arrows on the left side of the chart); → the median line of the ascending (blue) channel. Conversely, the bulls could be supported by: → the lower boundary of the blue channel; → the aggressive buying momentum evident in the sharp EUR/USD rally on 12 August (highlighted by the orange arrow). The bullish case is further reinforced by the fact that buyers managed to fully recover from the decline that began on 28 July. Given the above, we could assume some consolidation today as the market awaits the outcome of the presidential talks. The fact that the ADX indicator is hovering near its lows and trending downward underscores the current indecision and caution in the market. However, Monday’s open could prove highly volatile. Be prepared for sharp EUR/USD movements in either direction, depending on statements made by the US and Russian leaders. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1