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🔥 Bitcoin FOMC Bullish Reaction: Wait For ConfirmationThe FOMC meeting has just concluded, and the FED has raised the interest rates with 25 basis points. Since the initial reaction is bullish, I'd like to explore the idea that we're going to see a strong switch in trend from this point onwards. The dotted diagonal resistance is currently the main area that BTC has to break through. Be patience for the break out before considering a bullish entry. Target at the July highs, stop just below the resistance line.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
11
AUD Bucks Trend after Fed Hikes Rates to 22-Year High The Federal Reserve has decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, marking the highest level seen in 22 years. Market participants widely anticipated this move as the Fed resumed its tightening campaign. In their statement, the Fed expressed a positive outlook on economic growth, acknowledging that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace, which is a subtle improvement from the previous characterization of "modest" growth. The focus on consumer prices remained, with the Fed emphasizing that inflation continues to be elevated, and policymakers will closely monitor the risks it poses, mirroring their assessment from the previous month. Following the announcement of the Fed's decision, the U.S. dollar retreated across the board. This movement in the dollar contributed to a boost in gold prices and an immediate focus is now on the $1,973 minor resistance and $1,978 further above. An exception to the general trend is the Australian dollar, which bucked the trend after data revealed that domestic inflation slowed more than expected in the second quarter. This decrease in inflation reduced pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement further policy tightening measures. The data showed that Australia's consumer price index rose by 6%, a deceleration from the 7% recorded in the first quarter and below the market's expectations of 6.2%. Consequently, the Australian dollar weakened to approximately $0.676.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD quiet ahead of Fed decisionThe euro is showing limited movement for a second consecutive day. In Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1063, up 0.07%. The Federal Reserve meets later today, and it's close to a certainty that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25%, which would bring the Fed Funds rate to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC will not be releasing any economic forecasts, which means investors will have to comb the rate statement and Jerome Powell's follow-up press conference for clues about future rate policy. The money markets remain confident that today's rate hike will be the last in the current tightening cycle, which is a more dovish stance than what we've been hearing from Powell & Co. The Fed has reiterated that although inflation is heading in the right direction, it remains too high and more work needs to be done to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Powell does not want the markets to become complacent about inflation, and for this reason, he is unlikely to close the door on future rate hikes, even if he hints at a pause after today's expected increase. We can expect Powell to stick to the well-worn mantra of basing future rate decisions on economic data, in particular inflation and the strength of the labour market. The ECB will announce its rate decision on Thursday, and like the Fed later today, it's a virtual certainty that the ECB will raise rates by 0.25%. What happens after that? The minutes of the June meeting, released earlier this month, signalled that a September hike is a strong possibility. Members noted that "monetary policy had still more ground to cover" and "the Governing Council could consider increasing interest rates beyond July, if necessary." ECB policy makers will make their rate determinations based on economic data, but that doesn't mean the decision will be clear-cut. The eurozone economy is struggling, which would support a pause. At the same time, inflation dropped to 5.5% in June, which is almost triple the ECB's target of 2%. Inflation remains the ECB's number one priority, which could mean another rate hike in September unless there is a sharp drop in inflation or a serious deterioration in economic growth. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1063. The next resistance line is 1.1170 There is support at 1.1002 and 1.0895
by OANDA
Aussie slips as inflation falls, Fed expected to hikeThe Australian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6758, down 0.49%. The Aussie fell as much as 0.90% earlier in the day but has recovered some of these losses. Australian inflation declined more than expected in the second quarter, sending the Australian dollar lower as pressure has eased on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates. Headline inflation rose 6% y/y in the second quarter, down from 7% in the first quarter and below the consensus estimate of 6.2%. June monthly inflation dipped to 5.4% y/y as expected, below the May reading of 5.5%. The RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, a key gauge of core inflation, fell to 5.9% y/y in Q2, down from 6.6% in Q1 and just below the consensus of 6.0%. The positive inflation data was spoiled somewhat by services inflation, which accelerated to 6.3% in the second quarter, its highest level since 2001. A key factor driving up services inflation was higher rents, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The RBA meets on August 1st and investors have lowered the odds of a rate hike following the positive inflation report. The probability of a rate hike has fallen to 31%, down from 41% prior to the inflation report, according to the ASX RBA rate hike tracker. The RBA will release updated economic forecasts at the meeting, and investors will be especially interested in the inflation projections. What happens after August? An extended pause is the RBA's preferred move, but that will likely require inflation to continue heading lower toward the 2% target. Otherwise, the RBA will still have work to do on the inflation front and would likely have to continue tightening rates. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates at Wednesday's meeting, and investors have priced a hike at close to 100%. This would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 5.25% - 5.50%. Investors expect a pause in September but the Fed has signalled another rate hike after Wednesday's meeting. The Fed's rate policy will depend to a large extent on inflation levels and the strength of the labour market. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6767. Below, there is support at 0.6687 There is resistance at 0.6811 and 0.6891
by OANDA
Stocks, Rates and Inflation: Assessing Risks and OpportunitiesOver the last year, there have been increasing concerns about threats to the US and global economies, mainly due to all the rate hikes from the Fed and other central banks. However, these fears have definitely not played out, as consumer spending and business hiring have shown surprising durability in the US, despite rate hikes and inflation. Several factors explain the stock rebound since mid-2022: - Bearish positioning left room for a short squeeze as negative expectations didn’t play out at all. Attention has returned to quality large-cap technology firms leading in AI development like Google and Microsoft, as their innovations promise productivity gains that support growth. - Ongoing passive investing inflows, corporate buybacks, past fiscal stimulus, and excess savings, the Fed and Treasury generating shadow liquidity, China and Japan keeping rates low and stimulating, the massive deficits of the US government (investors know the US is essentially ‘broke’). - Inflation coming down is also boosting stocks, as stocks are mainly valued based on inflation, not interest rates. - The Fed might have finished its hiking cycle or might have one last hike left. Current rate expectations are indicating that rate cuts will come by early 2024. While earnings seem to be plateauing from peak levels, profitability remains healthy overall. GDP growth remains positive and revised higher, the US economy keeps adding jobs and the unemployment rate remains at record lows. Global challenges persist, as supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures from the Ukraine war might come back at any time, despite having significantly subsided. Demographic trends of aging populations in developed countries also drag on labor force expansion and economic growth. High debt loads worldwide likewise limit stimulus options without leading to inflation or instability. While inflation has moderated, it remains elevated and sensitive to many factors, from geopolitical instability to climate change. More concerning, inflation has eased without a clear link to the Fed’s policy tightening. It’s improbable that the Fed hikes were the ones that pushed inflation from 9.1% down to 3%, as rate hikes act with long and variable lags. This is raising doubts about the Fed, it's forecasting, and its monetary policy’s effectiveness in controlling inflation over the long term, especially as their current super-tight interest rate policy could lead to catastrophic deflation and recession. Given rising recession risks, the Fed will likely be forced to reverse course and start cutting rates by the end of 2024. This policy whiplash carries risks of its own, as we currently seem to be heading toward a deflationary shock, which might be followed by another inflationary wave. With massive deficits, the Fed also faces constraints from high-interest costs on debt even as its policies try to restrain growth and inflation. The economy isn't a simple dial the Fed can turn on and off. What’s even more concerning, is that the Fed is essentially trying to suppress wage gains and cause unemployment to curb inflation, which is something that could induce an inequality-worsening spiral. In our opinion, a more balanced approach recognizes that moderate wage growth won’t spur runaway inflation, especially as technology evolves work. The policy should prepare workers for automation and AI through training programs, not just reactively responding to lagging data as it is currently doing. The Fed’s constraints highlight the need for creative solutions to complement monetary policy. The economy is a multifaceted system requiring diverse policy responses. With vision and flexibility, emerging technologies like AI have immense potential to broadly uplift living standards. But this requires inclusive policies and acknowledging the economy's dynamism. The future likely holds turbulence, but with strategic foresight productivity gains can be harnessed for the benefit of all. Despite concerns over rising rates, the fundamental backdrop remains favorable for stocks. Many investors have grown excessively bearish and underestimate the market's upside potential. Sentiment and positioning remain bearish and cautious, with most investors underestimating all the positive headwinds for stocks, especially productivity gains from AI, falling inflation, falling rates, and currency debasement. Crucially, the rally since mid-2022 has not been fueled by leverage, unlike past bubbles. Margin debt levels decreased last year, reducing systemic risk. The market has a strong foundation to build on gains, especially as most unprofitable tech has been clobbered and hasn’t recovered, unlike US tech behemoths. Big tech and AI stocks are leading the way higher, forming a new monopoly built on network effects and immense scale. Their nearly unassailable competitive advantages will drive growth for years to come. Although in the short-term sentiment has turned bullish, hence a 10% correction is possible, we don’t think that a new bear market is in the cards until stocks make new all-time highs. In conclusion, while risks remain, the US economy has proven resilient amid rate hikes and inflation. Productivity gains from AI innovations, coupled with prudent and flexible policymaking, can support continued growth and market gains if properly harnessed. Investors should look through short-term volatility and maintain a constructive long-term outlook.
TVC:DXY
by BitcoinMacro
US500 - Time for consolidation?Hi Traders, we have a busy week ahead. We have 3 central bank interest rate decisions and a few other fundamentals coming up. Week 30/2023 Monday: Purchasing managers' indices DE🇩🇪 , UK 🇬🇧and USA 🇺🇸 Tuesday: ifo business climate index🇩🇪, CB consumer confidence🇺🇸 Wednesday: FED interest rate decision🇺🇸 Thursday: ECB interest rate decision 🇪🇺 Friday: BOJ interest rate decision🇯🇵, CPI DE🇩🇪, PCE core rate 🇺🇸 Some Infos about the Central Banks FED🇺🇸: The Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to between 5.25% and 5.50% at its July meeting, with traders looking for clues as to whether this will be the central bank's last rate hike of the cycle or whether it will deliver another rate hike at a future meeting that is in line with its own forecasts. ECB🇪🇺: Again, a 25 basis point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. However, the wording will be crucial here. Because currently, a further increase in September is priced in by around 50% of market participants. The other 50% do not expect any further increase. Depending on which way the wording goes, there is definitely a lot of upside or downside potential for the euro. BOJ🇯🇵: The Bank of Japan's interest rate and monetary policy is still expected to remain loose. This could be very exciting, especially after the last correction against the USD. So we can expect at least on Thing... Volatility! From Technical point of view a consolidation in the stock market would not be a surprise. If the SP500 moves back to first Support Level this would be a possible zone for new long entry. But we should wait for the FED and their outlook. Wish you a great Trading week! Team tegasFX
CAPITALCOM:US500
by tegasFX
GOLD (XAUUSD): Your Plan For FED RATE DECISION 🥇 Next week, on Wednesday, we are expecting FED Interest Rate Decision. Here are potential scenarios for Gold: Bullish If the price breaks and closes above 1987 daily resistance, it will be a strong bullish signal. A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 2000 level then. Bearish If the price breaks and closes below 1960 support, it will lead to a further bearish continuation. Next goal will be 1940 Wait for a breakout, that will be your best confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VasilyTrader
11
USD/CAD flat ahead of Canadian retail salesThe Canadian dollar is trading quietly on Friday. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3171, almost unchanged. It has been a busy week in the currency markets, with the US dollar rebounding and posting strong gains against the major currencies. The notable exception has been the Canadian dollar, which has held its own against the greenback this week. We could see some movement from USD/CAD in the North American session when Canada releases retail sales for May. We'll get a snapshot of consumer spending later on Friday, as Canada releases the May retail sales report. The markets are bracing for a slowdown in May after an impressive April release. The consensus estimate for retail sales is 0.5% in May, down from 1.1% in April. The core rate is expected to fall to 0.3%, compared to 1.3%. If the estimates prove to be accurate, it would point to the economy cooling down and provide support for the Bank of Canada to take a pause at the next meeting in September. The Federal Reserve meets on July 26th and investors have priced in a 0.25% hike as a near certainty. September is less clear, but the markets have priced another hike at just 16%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Are the markets being too dovish? Fed members have said that inflation isn't falling fast enough, which could mean that another hike is coming after July. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernake appeared to side with the market view, saying on Thursday that the July hike could be the final rate increase in the current tightening cycle. Bernanke said that the economy would slow further before the 2% inflation target was reached, but he expected any recession to be mild. There is resistance at 1.3205 and 1.3318 1.3106 and 1.2993 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD edges lower ahead of UK inflationThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3038, down 0.27%. The UK is lagging behind other major economies in the fight to curb inflation. Will Wednesday's inflation report bring some good news? In May, CPI remained stuck at 8.7% y/y but is expected to ease to 8.2% in June. The core rate is expected to remain steady at 7.1%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI is expected to fall from 0.7% to 0.4% and the core rate is projected to slow to 0.4%, down from 0.8%. The inflation report could be a game-changer with regard to the Bank of  England's meeting on August 3rd. The BoE delivered an oversize 50-basis point hike in June and will have to decide between a modest 25-bp hike or another 50-bp increase at the August meeting. Last week's employment report pointed to wage growth picking up, which moved the dial in favour of a 50-bp increase. US retail sales for June provided a mixed spending picture. Headline retail sales rose just 0.2% m/m, below the 0.5% consensus estimate and the upwardly revised May reading of 0.5%. Core retail sales were much stronger at 0.6%, above the 0.3% consensus and the upwardly revised May release of 0.3%. The data points to resilience in consumer spending although momentum has slowed. The retail sales report did not change expectations with regard to rate policy, with the Fed expected to raise rates in July and take a pause in September. The Fed has tightened by some 500 basis points in the current rate-hike cycle and this has curbed inflation, which has fallen to 3%. Nevertheless, the Fed remains concerned that the solid US economy and a tight labour market will make it difficult to hit the 2% inflation target, and the Fed hasn't given any hints that it will wrap up its tightening in July, although the money markets appear to think this is the case. GBP/USD has support at 1.2995 and 1.2906 There is resistance at 1.3077 and 1.3116
by OANDA
1