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What if Kid Rock ran the Fed?Gold has broken above $3,400 for the first time, setting a new all-time high as investor confidence in the United States continues to decline. Citi forecasts gold could reach $3,500 within the next three months. However, this projection might be underestimating Trump’s potential to further undermine confidence in the US. On Monday, President Trump intensified pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Last week the President said, "Powell's termination cannot come fast enough,". A move to dismiss Powell would likely trigger significant market volatility. Markets generally view Powell as a stabilizing figure, and history shows that a less independent central bank is less effective at keeping inflation under control. I think it might be fair to wonder what a Federal Reserve Chairman Kid Rock would do for the price of gold.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so. Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD. ✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD. 💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD) Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025. Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral. ⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD. 📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times. The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce. Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high). Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480. RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed. 🧠 Technical Outlook: If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100. If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480. 📊 Trade Summary Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD. Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation. 🧭 Trade Plan 🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500. 🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD - When will the gold trend reverse?!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range. The global gold market has experienced notable shifts in trade flows following the removal of retaliatory tariffs on metals imposed by the Trump administration. According to data, a significant portion of gold that had been moved to New York since December is now being returned to Switzerland, its original destination. Swiss customs data reveals that gold imports from the United States surged to 25.5 metric tons in March—the highest level in 13 months—up from just 12.1 tons in February. In contrast, gold exports from Switzerland to the U.S. dropped by 32%, falling to 103.2 tons. For the first time in over 14 months, Comex-approved warehouses, part of the CME Group, have recorded consistent outflows of gold. These outflows indicate a reduction in U.S. futures premiums and a decline in trader anxiety following the removal of tariffs. Switzerland has once again emerged as the primary destination for gold leaving American vaults, reaffirming its central role in global gold refining and logistics. Nevertheless, a portion of the gold stored in U.S. warehouses continues to serve as a hedge against market uncertainties. In an average year, the U.S.consumes around 115 metric tons of gold in the form of physical coins and bars. Current data suggests that kilobar inventories held in CME warehouses are sufficient to meet this demand for nearly 12 years. The gold market remains heavily influenced by geopolitical and economic factors. These developments highlight Switzerland’s importance in refining and transportation, as well as the United States’ significant role in gold storage and resource management. Meanwhile, a growing number of economic forecasts are warning that the U.S. may be entering a period of “stagflation”—a situation characterized by stagnating economic growth coupled with persistently high inflation. Tariffs have the potential to drive up consumer prices while simultaneously slowing growth, placing financial pressure on households, particularly if the labor market deteriorates. Central banks face serious challenges in responding to stagflation through monetary policy, as efforts to address one side of the issue often exacerbate the other. Even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession triggered by tariffs, many economists foresee rising risks of a painful stagflationary period. While economic experts remain divided on whether former President Trump’s trade wars will ultimately tip the economy into recession, a large number of recent forecasts underscore the increasing threat of prolonged inflation combined with sluggish growth. Numerous analysts, including Federal Reserve officials, argue that tariffs are likely to hamper economic expansion and weaken the labor market, all while elevating consumer prices. However, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial, is among those who believe the labor market and consumers remain resilient enough to help the economy steer clear of a full-blown recession—assuming recently announced tariffs are eventually scaled back.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections. From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However: Momentum seems overstretched. RSI shows potential overbought signals. There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area. 📌 Trade Setup: I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30. 🧾 COT Report – GBP Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months. Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction. 💵 COT Report – USD Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March). This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns. 📉 Summary: Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view: GBP remains weak on the institutional side. USD is regaining strength.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers. From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00. The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand. From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
NLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe) 1. 📌 Price Context The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85. It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874. 🔍 Key Zones 🔵 Demand Zone (Support) Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712 This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest. A powerful bullish move originated from this area. 🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance) Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450 This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area. Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00 A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal. 🕯️ Candles & Momentum The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout. The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback. 🔮 Possible Future Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength. 📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend) Currently bouncing from an oversold area. No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside. 🧭 Conclusion Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term). Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00 Support: 1.8712 and 1.85
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
ECB lowers rates, Euro edges higherThe euro is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1369, up 0.09% on the day. The ECB lowered its deposit facility rate on Thursday by a quarter-point, bring the rate to 2.25%. This marked the seventh rate cut since the ECB started its easing cycle in June 2024 and interest rates are now at their lowest since December 2022. The markets had expected the rate cut and the euro showed limited movement in response to the move. The ECB's rate cut was largely a response to the chaos around US tariff policy. US President Donald Trump has sharply attacked the EU over its trade policy and slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US. The EU retaliated with counter-tariffs but suspended those measures for 90 days after Trump suspended a second round of tariffs on EU goods. The sides are negoatiating but the US has threatened new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and the EU-US trade war could escalate in the coming weeks. The euro has benefited so far from the escalating trade tensions, as hit 1.1476 last week, its highest level since February 2022. The US dollar has sustained sharp losses against the major currencies as investors look for safer shores in the midst of the turmoil in the financial markets. The ECB statement said that the inflation continues to ease but expressed concern over worsening trade tensions which have muddied the economic outlook. ECB President Lagarde said in her follow-up press conference that "downside risks to economic growth have increased" which would likely impact on exports, investment and consumption. The Federal Reserve is prepared to lower rates if necesary but the markets have priced in a hold at 90% the May 7 meeting according to CME Fedwatch. A cut in June is much more likely, with a 60% probability.
by OANDA
1
XAUUSD: Gold is making new highs!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand ranges will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range. • Revised Year-End Outlook: The bank attributes the bullish outlook to increased central bank purchases, inflows into gold ETFs, and continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. • Risk Scenario: Should the Fed shift course due to concerns over U.S. debt or weakening confidence in the dollar as a reserve currency, gold could climb to $4,500 per ounce. One of the major forces behind this rally has been the weakening U.S. dollar under the Trump administration. Market participants are voicing three primary concerns fueling this sentiment: subpar U.S. economic growth, elevated inflation, and declining productivity. These fears stem from several core issues: 1. Tariffs: While intended to support domestic industry, tariffs are increasingly viewed as disruptive, raising fears of inflationary shocks and fragile supply chains—lessons painfully learned during the COVID era. 2. Economic Growth: Trump’s original growth agenda, centered on tax cuts and deregulation, has been overshadowed by other political developments. Many economists are uneasy about a government that seems willing to defy conventional economic principles—raising fears of repeating the failures of protectionist policies. 3. Budget Deficits: The U.S. is running a staggering 7% budget deficit relative to GDP despite low unemployment (~4%). This raises questions about how Trump’s proposed policies would be funded. 4. Erosion of International Norms: The U.S. dollar’s dominance relies on institutions like NATO, the WTO, and the United Nations, as well as global faith in the rule of law. These foundations are reportedly weakening. There are also emerging concerns from places like Beijing, pointing to American vulnerabilities—especially around intellectual property. In a world where IP rights are no longer respected, what value do American corporations really have? 5. Immigration: It remains unclear how much of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is substantive versus symbolic. What is clear, however, is that undocumented migrants have played a crucial role in suppressing inflation in key sectors like agriculture and hospitality. Without a clear plan to replace this workforce, cost pressures could intensify.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
3
April 17, 2025 - Powell, Japan & TrumpHello everyone, it’s April 17, 2025. Yesterday’s U.S. trading was pure market carnage. Semiconductors ( NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AMD , NASDAQ:ASML ) were steamrolled as AI chip bans to China kicked in and Trump dropped another tariff bomb, hiking duties to 245%. That wiped $200 billion off Nvidia alone. In Chicago, Powell stoked the flames, warning tariffs will fuel inflation and choke growth, and insisted he’s in no rush to cut rates. The CME_MINI:NQ1! tumbled 3%, the CME_MINI:SOX1! lost 4.1%, and bond futures plunged. This morning, U.S. futures are up about 0.75% on headlines that Trump’s talks with Japanese negotiators are “going very well,” sparking rallies across Asia: Nikkei +1%, Hong Kong +2.7%, Shanghai +1%. It seems even a whiff of détente with Japan sends everyone scrambling back into risk assets. On commodities, BLACKBULL:WTI jumps to $63.35 amid fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC output cuts; OANDA:XAUUSD rockets to $3,352 /oz; INDEX:BTCUSD hovers near $83,500. Today watch the ECB’s rate cut, Powell’s next speech, Philly Fed and jobless claims before the Good Friday shutdown. With Trump’s erratic tariff theatrics and Powell’s warning of higher inflation and slower growth, volatility is set to reign supreme. Buckle up.
AMEX:SPY
by SmartApingAI
4
USDCAD - Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged!The USDCAD pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its descending channel. The continuation of the downward movement of this pair will provide us with a buying position with a good risk-reward ratio. If the correction continues, we can sell within the specified supply zone. On Wednesday, oil prices climbed by approximately 1%, driven by renewed optimism in the markets regarding potential trade talks between the United States and China. However, lingering concerns about the trade war’s negative effects on global energy demand limited further gains in oil prices.Initially, oil prices declined, but market sentiment shifted after Bloomberg reported—citing an anonymous source—that China was seeking greater respect from the Trump administration before agreeing to new negotiations. The same source also stated that China had requested a new outreach from the U.S. to initiate the discussions. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, commented that easing trade tensions between the two nations could help reduce constraints on economic growth and energy demand, potentially exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global oil demand is expected to rise by just 730,000 barrels per day this year—well below both its previous projections and those of OPEC. In a new report, the Fitch rating agency warned that the intensifying global trade war has significantly weakened the outlook for economic growth. According to the report, China’s economic growth will fall below 4% in both this year and the next, while the eurozone is projected to grow by less than 1%. Fitch further estimates that global economic growth in 2025 will fall below 2%, marking the weakest performance since 2009 (excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period). Despite the sharp decline in the U.S. growth outlook, Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to delay any interest rate cuts until Q4 of 2025. Conversely, deeper rate cuts are anticipated for the European Central Bank and emerging market economies. In the energy sector, Fitch lowered its short-term oil price forecast due to risks stemming from weaker demand and trade disruptions but left its natural gas price forecast unchanged. Additionally, the Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.75%. Highlights from the Bank’s monetary statement include: • Tariffs and logistical challenges are driving price increases. • New U.S. trade policies have heightened uncertainty, slowed growth, and sparked inflation fears. • The Bank supports economic growth with inflation control but urges caution due to elevated domestic risks. • Both upside risks (higher costs) and downside risks (weaker growth) to inflation are under close watch. • Beginning in April, the removal of carbon taxes and cheaper oil are expected to temporarily lower inflation for about a year. • The recent rise in inflation reflects renewed commodity price growth and the end of temporary sales tax relief. • Due to high uncertainty related to U.S. trade tariffs, the Bank is refraining from issuing an economic forecast. • The output gap in Q1 2025 was estimated between 0% and -1%. • Annualized GDP growth for the same quarter was 1.8%, down from the January forecast of 2%. • Two scenarios are under consideration: one involving tariff reduction via agreement, and another involving a prolonged global trade war. • In the first scenario, Canadian and global growth temporarily decline, inflation drops to 1.5%, and later returns to the 2% target. • In the second, the global economy slows sharply, inflation surges, and Canada enters a severe recession. Inflation surpasses 3% by mid-2026 before returning to the 2% target. • In both scenarios, the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around the midpoint of the 2.25%–3.25% range.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBP/CAD at a crossroads: this key level could trigger the drop!My visual analysis highlights a strong multi-timeframe resistance zone (weekly and monthly) between 1.8662 and 1.8779, where price has reacted sharply multiple times. This area, marked in dark burgundy, signals a significant supply zone. Currently, price is trading back in the 1.8350–1.8400 region. Based on my note on the chart ("Looking for a short opportunity on H1"), I’m anticipating a potential short entry from lower timeframes—likely triggered by a structural break or bearish candlestick confirmation. 🔻 Bearish Scenario: If I get a short confirmation around the current area, I’ll be targeting the 1.7900–1.7677 demand zone (highlighted in deep blue), which has previously shown strong bullish reactions. The RSI is also showing signs of potential divergence or overextension, adding weight to the bearish thesis. 🟢 Alternative Scenario: If price decisively breaks above the 1.8780 monthly resistance, we could see an extended bullish move towards levels not currently visible on this chart. 📌 Operational Note: I’ll be looking for entry confirmations on lower timeframes (like H1), with valid reversal patterns or price action triggers, and will manage the position dynamically depending on how price behaves around the 1.79 zone.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD at Key Decision Zone – Breakout or Smart Money Trap?🟢 Current Context Price: 1.13820 USD Trend: Strong bullish structure, with impulsive moves especially in April. Main timeframe: Appears to be daily or weekly, with multi-timeframe zones (1W, 1M marked). 🧱 Key Zones 🔴 Supply Zone (1.13000–1.15000) Well-defined area of historic selling pressure. Price reacted with a temporary drop but bounced right back into it. 🟦 Demand Zone (1.08500–1.10000) Major order block where the current rally was initiated. Price used this as a base to launch higher. ⚫ Lower Supports 1.03600: Weekly support 1.02838: Monthly support Broad accumulation zone (grey box) from which this trend began. 📈 Price Structure Strong breakout above 1.10–1.11 resistance. Currently pulling back inside the supply zone – the dashed arrows hint at potential liquidity sweeps before a continuation to 1.15+. 🔍 Momentum Indicator (likely RSI/CCI) Currently elevated, but not yet in extreme overbought. No clear divergence. Momentum favors bulls. 📊 Scenarios ✅ Bullish: Clean break above 1.14500–1.15000 opens the door to 1.1600 and 1.1800. Wait for a structural retest for safer long entries. ⚠️ Bearish (corrective): Strong rejection from the supply zone → potential pullback to 1.10–1.0850 (blue zone). Only below 1.0850 would a deeper bearish structure toward 1.03600 be confirmed. 🧠 Strategic Note This is a zone of clear smart money activity: liquidity grabs on both ends. Watch how this weekly candle closes – we’re either validating above 1.13 or setting up a trap for late longs.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
SILVER at a CROSSROADS: Bounce or CRASH to $28?🔹 General Context Silver has shown a strong bullish reaction from the lows around $28, later reaching a key monthly supply area between $34 and $35. However, this zone has once again been firmly rejected, leaving room for a potential deep retracement. 🟥 Key Zones 🔴 Monthly Supply Zone (34.00 - 35.00 USD): Strong resistance already tested multiple times. Candlesticks show strong rejections and long upper wicks. 🟥 Weekly Supply Zone (33.00 - 34.00 USD): Breaker block or mitigation area that triggered a strong bearish move. ⬛ Current Weekly Support Zone (32.00 - 31.90 USD): Price is currently testing this area. A new impulse could arise here — or we may witness a breakdown. 🟦 Monthly Demand Zone (28.20 - 29.20 USD): The last area defended by buyers in the mid-term. A realistic target in case of breakdown. 📊 Price Structure The short- to medium-term trend remains bearish, with lower highs and strong rejection candles. Current price action shows indecision, with lower wicks on recent weekly candles but smaller bullish bodies — a sign of potential accumulation... or just a pullback? 📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI is in the neutral-high zone, not yet overbought, but in a downward phase → more room for downside if buyers don’t step in soon. No clear divergences visible, but watch for signals on the daily timeframe. 🧭 Possible Scenarios ✅ BULLISH Scenario: Condition: Support holds between 32.50 and 31.90 USD with a clear reversal candle. Target: Move back toward the supply zone at 33.80 – 34.90 USD. Confirmation: Break above 33.00 USD with increasing volume. ❌ BEARISH Scenario: Condition: Weekly close below 31.90 USD → sign of weakness. Target: Zone between 29.20 – 28.20 USD, a potential new institutional buy area. Confirmation: Strong bearish break with follow-through and lack of buying reaction. 🧠 Operational Conclusion Silver is at a critical decision point: bearish pressure from the monthly zones is evident, but as long as the 31.90/32.00 zone holds, buyers may still defend. A clean breakdown would open the door for a drop below $30.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF📉 10YR Bond Yields: Panic on LTF, Calm on HTF Yes, the recent spike in the 10-Year Yield is causing some short-term panic. But if you zoom out to the monthly timeframe, the bigger picture looks far more constructive. 🔍 Here’s what the chart says: The MACD and RSI on the monthly are both pointing down. Yields touched 4.5%, historically a key recession threshold. We’re now seeing a MACD bearish crossover and a clear bearish divergence—classic signs of a trend reversal. 💡 What does this mean? If no new fear or shock hits the market, yields are likely headed down, potentially toward the 2% range in the coming months. This would naturally ease pressure on equities and crypto. 📉 Conclusion: This recent spike in yields seems to be transitional, not structural. The chart suggests that the top is in, and the market is correcting from an overextended zone. The Fed might not even need to intervene—the bond market is likely to correct on its own. Stay calm. Stay rational. Always zoom out. #10YearYield #BondMarket #MacroAnalysis #InterestRates #RecessionWatch #MarketPanic #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #CryptoMarkets #StockMarketInsights #StayCalmZoomOut #DYOR
TVC:US10YShort
by CryptoNikkoid
BITCOIN 2025 - A MODERATE SCENARIOBitcoin’s price trajectory hinges on critical technical levels. Should Bitcoin fall below the key support zones—referred to here as the 'red lines' and t he bold black line —it risks entering a bear market, potentially signaling the end of the current bull cycle. These levels are pivotal for sustaining the parabolic bull market’s final leg. Following an initial decline from current levels, Bitcoin is projected to drop to approximately $70K, where it may consolidate for a couple of months. For the best-case scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must hold above the critical $70-77K threshold and execute a sharp V-shaped recovery. From there, a robust rally could propel it beyond $100K around August, culminating in the cycle’s peak in September at its highest point. While this outcome appears unlikely in the short term, it remains the most favorable projection, contingent on Bitcoin maintaining strength above the $70K line. Failure to do so could prematurely terminate the bull cycle.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
1
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers, A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue. A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below. There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part. I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P Let's see how this plays out
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Osmanomics
PPI Misses Across the Board — Rate Cut Setup StrengthensFresh inflation data just gave the market a clear signal: the Fed has room to cut sooner than expected. PPI Snapshot (Actual vs. Forecast): PPI MoM: -0.4% vs. 0.2% ✅ Core PPI MoM: -0.1% vs. 0.3% ✅ PPI YoY: 2.7% vs. 3.3% ✅ Core PPI YoY: 3.3% vs. 3.6% ✅ PPI ex Food/Energy/Trade YoY: 3.4% vs. 3.5% ✅ 🧠 Prices aren’t just slowing — they’re contracting. Combined with soft CPI, this disinflation confirms a Fed-friendly trend and clears the way for policy easing. 🧨 The Twist: 10-Year Yield Spiked Despite stocks falling, the 10-year yield moved up — a rare divergence in risk-off environments. This likely reflects three key forces: Hedge funds facing margin calls, forced to liquidate bond positions. Political actors unloading treasuries amid U.S. fiscal tensions. A potential counter-strike to Trump’s efforts to push yields down via market stress. 💡 Ironically, this may help the Fed. Rising yields tighten financial conditions on their own, giving Powell more space to act without risking an inflation resurgence. 🧭 Sector Playbook (Macro-Aligned) Tech and Growth — Overweight. These sectors thrive on falling rates and an easing narrative. Bonds — Accumulate. Yield spike could offer a prime entry point before a Fed pivot. Crypto — Risk-On. Disinflation + volatility = breakout fuel. Energy and Defense — Hold. May underperform in a growth-led rally (Besides nuclear). Defensives — Underweight. Safety trade could unwind as liquidity improves. Small Caps — Speculative. Could bounce hard if liquidity rotation begins. ⚠️ Final Thought Markets are digesting short-term chaos, but underneath it all, the macro signals are aligning. Even without a "golden tweet," the inflation data is giving Powell the green light. If the Fed wants to cut — the data is here. The only thing missing is confirmation from Powell’s tone. #Disinflation #FedCut #YieldSpike #MacroUpdate #CPI #BondMarket #TradingViewIdeas #MarketOutlook #SectorRotation
TVC:US10YLong
by Papi_Jammin
XAGUSD: Silver, and the latest on tariffs!Silver is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. If silver reaches the supply zone, it can be sold. A downward correction will also provide us with a buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. U.S. President Donald Trump has implemented tariff policies with the aim of revitalizing domestic manufacturing. During the 1980s, a significant portion of American manufacturing jobs either moved overseas or were replaced by automation technologies. The shift in production was largely driven by wage disparities across countries. Nevertheless, the United States remains a leading global manufacturer, although it now focuses on producing higher-value goods. Experts argue that imposing import taxes is unlikely to achieve one of its stated goals: restoring manufacturing as a central pillar of the U.S. economy. According to many economists, Trump’s campaign to impose tariffs on a wide range of goods from trade partners is unlikely to bring back the manufacturing jobs that once formed the backbone of the blue-collar middle class. In the mid-20th century, the U.S. was the manufacturing capital of the world, employing more workers in this sector than any other. At its peak in the 1950s, one-fourth of the civilian workforce was engaged in manufacturing. However, starting in the 1980s, free trade agreements facilitated the relocation of many industries abroad, while automation reduced the need for human labor in the remaining factories. Today, only about 7% of the workforce is employed in manufacturing—a figure that has remained largely unchanged since the Great Recession. The goal of tariffs is to incentivize businesses to relocate their factories to the U.S. to avoid paying import taxes—costs that are typically passed on to consumers. While some economists believe this approach could work for select industries, it is unlikely to recreate an era in which most household items carried the “Made in America” label. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, while it’s unlikely that the Chinese President will initiate a call himself, the odds of Xi Jinping responding to a call from Trump are reportedly high. This comes amid heightened tensions between the two nations due to new tariffs and escalating trade disputes, where both sides appear to be locked in a power struggle—neither willing to be the first to back down. Although this news may seem minor on the surface, it carries a deeper signal for the markets: despite ongoing tensions, the possibility for communication and negotiation remains. This prospect, especially in a highly volatile environment, could be seen as a positive sign by investors. Earlier in the week, Trump had stated he was waiting for a call from Xi. Now, the Wall Street Journal suggests that if Trump initiates the conversation, a response from China is likely. While this may be an unofficial message from within the Chinese leadership, it still indicates that the door to dialogue and de-escalation is not entirely closed.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red. The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound. From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400. Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
HOW IS CRYPTO SHAPING UP?Trump and tariffs have a firm grip on the economic world as of late, so where does that leave the crypto market? TOTAL has a clear structure since the beginning of the bull market in 2023, in the last 3 days TOTAL has wicked into the bullish trendline support but sits within a bearish trend channel. This level also coincides with the bullish orderblock that started the leg up post US election so a very strong level of support here. Do I think this is the end and the bottom is in? The chart would make a very good case for it however I believe that the Geo-politics outweigh Technical Analysis currently, at least in the short term. Everyone is watching for the latest news release/Trump announcement and all the time that is going on the market is very reactionary with less passive orders and more reactionary news based market orders. That taken into account in the short term this is a game of musical chairs with massive volatility swings and liquidations left right and center, a traders dream. I'm very interested in how the FED will react to this, once we start getting emergency or early interest rate cuts that for me is when BTC will take the next step up and will flip to an investor/buy and hold environment, whether that's from here, lower or higher I'm not sure but but BTC needs a risk-on environment to thrive and Trump is doing his best to force J Powells hand.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ProR35
1
GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift🟡 GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift Gold has broken through both the parallel ascending channel and a narrow triangle pattern at the edges, resulting in a strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY). This move can be attributed to a mild positive shift in the US stock market yesterday, along with some upward momentum in the Asian and European markets today. 📉 Current Situation: It’s still unclear whether this movement is tied to positive news about tariffs, but an important level to watch is 3075 – 3077. If this level is breached, it may be time to reassess the outlook and consider shifting towards a BUY. 💡 Currently, there’s strong buying activity during the European session. It’s recommended to avoid jumping into BUY positions at these levels and to refrain from selling too aggressively. 📌 Scenario for Today: Look for potential BUY opportunities at the important levels 3030 – 3018 during the European session, and stay tuned for updates regarding FOMC tonight. 🔮 Be Cautious: The FOMC meeting will take place later today, which could lead to significant market movements. Be prepared for potential volatility and liquidity sweeps in less liquid areas. 🧭 Key Technical Levels: 🔺 Resistance: 3075 – 3090 – 3110 🔻 Support: 3030 – 3018 – 3000 – 2988 – 2974 🎯 Trade Setup: 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3074 – 3076 SL: 3080 TP: 3070 – 3066 – 3062 – 3058 – 3054 – 3050 – 3040 🟢 BUY ZONE: 2976 – 2974 SL: 2970 TP: 2980 – 2984 – 2988 – 2992 – 2996 – 3000 📌 Reminder: The market is currently very sensitive, so stick to risk management rules, ensure full TP/SL implementation, and avoid making hasty decisions. Be cautious and watch the market movements closely! — AD | Money Market Flow
OShort
by MMFlowTrading
6
EUR/GBP: Monthly Resistance Test, Rising Risk of PullbackEUR/GBP has recently shown a strong bullish acceleration, breaking decisively above the consolidation zone between 0.8285 and 0.8480, and reaching the monthly resistance area around 0.8580–0.8600. This zone, highlighted on the chart with a marked red and grey band, represents a historically significant selling area—already tested earlier this month and revisited again today. The strong upward expansion has been accompanied by an RSI nearing extreme levels, indicating a possible and imminent loss of bullish momentum. From a technical perspective, the current setup reveals an active supply zone that could trigger a pullback, especially if the price fails to close decisively above the weekly and monthly highs. Potential profit-taking may drive the pair back toward the intermediate balance zone around 0.8450–0.8480, which would serve as the first dynamic support level. Only a clear and confirmed breakout above 0.8600 would open the door for further bullish continuation, with targets toward 0.8650 and beyond. Strategically, caution is advised at this stage: traders already long may consider scaling out near resistance, while those eyeing short entries could find opportunities on reversal signals or confirmation of rejection from the current zone.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1