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EUR/USD: What to Expect - Trump vs FED!The EUR/USD has recently shown a recovery phase after reaching the late-September high near 1.1150 last Thursday, initially supported by the weakness of the US dollar following fears of stagflation in the United States, fueled by tariff announcements from President Trump. However, the scenario changed rapidly after the release of Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data and Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday. Employment data showed NFP growth in line with expectations, but also an increase in the unemployment rate, signaling a less solid labor market than anticipated. During his speech, Powell expressed concerns about the resilience of the US economy, highlighting the risk of an economic slowdown while at the same time reiterating the focus on inflation, maintaining a cautious approach regarding further monetary easing policies. From a technical perspective, the chart shows that the area around 1.0980-1.1000 represents a crucial zone to assess the sustainability of the bullish trend. A daily close above this level could trigger a new upward push towards the highs of 1.1100 and subsequently 1.1150, especially if supported by further signs of dollar weakness or positive European economic data. If the EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.1000, we could see a pullback towards the support at 1.0950 and subsequently 1.0900. The critical support area on the chart is identified between 1.0360 and 1.0280, and a break below these levels would indicate a significant change in market sentiment.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE🟡 GOLD BREAKS SHARPLY — BUT THE MOVE WAS WRITTEN IN THE STRUCTURE A steep drop in gold just rattled the markets — but if you’ve been following the macro and technical setup closely, this was not only expected, but anticipated. From the first week of April, we’ve been tracking signals of potential exhaustion in XAUUSD: 🕯️ Candlestick wicks on higher timeframes 📈 Overextended structure 🧠 Macro divergence Now, all signs have converged — and we’re finally seeing the correction play out. 🔍 Why This Isn’t Just About Gold What we’re seeing is a broader shift in global market sentiment: U.S., European, and Asian equities are all under pressure Crypto has stagnated with little to no fresh capital inflow Gold — after months of aggressive buying — is now facing wave after wave of profit-taking This is classic risk-off behaviour. Investors are choosing cash, sitting tight, and waiting for clarity — not only in the charts but in the headlines too. 📉 DXY Building a Case for Recovery The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been heavily sold in recent months — but is now holding at a multi-year structural support zone that’s been tested multiple times since 2021. With Trump returning to the spotlight and triggering a fresh round of global tariff negotiations, the USD is regaining narrative strength. Trump’s stance has already prompted discussions among major economies, putting the U.S. in a dominant position — and the market is beginning to price that in. 🤔 What’s Holding the Fed Back? Despite rising trade tensions, the Federal Reserve has remained cautious — choosing not to act until the dust settles from geopolitical and policy developments. This creates a window of opportunity: If the Fed holds rates while global central banks soften And if the USD holds this major support → We could see strong dollar flows return in Q2. 🔮 Gold Outlook – Where Next? In the short term: Expect continued volatility Potential for gold to slide further toward 308x – 305x range Any bounce is likely to be technical rather than fundamental In the medium term: Once political noise fades, gold may find support again Especially if inflation expectations persist or the Fed pivots dovish later in Q2 💡 Takeaways for UK Traders ✅ Don't trade the news — trade the reaction ✅ Macro structure matters more than the daily headlines ✅ Capital preservation beats chasing euphoria We’re not guessing. We’re reading the story and planning with structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
Golden Momentum to Short the goldWe already know what FED powell talked about on the 4th and trump's tariffs which have a very big effect on the global economy. exchanges have fallen, this pattern is very similar where during the crisis the price of gold also fell sharply because there was no demand from the world and they saw the USD as a safe heaven because the price of gold was also too high. Price between 3040 -3070 is a entry price to short Price rocketing above 3110 = bull resisting (very small chance, only below 5%) Good luck for your trade, lets win this trade.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by LaurentWilvyne
Markets eye US, Canada job reports, US dollar steadiesThe Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December. The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%. The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months. Canada's employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%. US President Donald Trump's tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US. USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170 1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Markets eye US, Canada job reports, US dollar steadiesThe Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December. The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today. The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%. The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months. Canada's employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%. US President Donald Trump's tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US. USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170 1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Crypto Market at Critical Crossroads: Is History Repeating?Maybe an altcoin season seems too luxurious for us investors right now. The TOTAL market cap is currently at a critical point, showing price action similar to past cycles. Previously, we had COVID as our black swan event - could today's equivalent be a trade war? We're probably approaching the final wave before the market truly enters a downtrend. It's crucial now to stay alert and prepare carefully. Everything the US is currently doing—including tariffs—serves one goal: shrinking their huge federal debt load, absorbing wealth from other global economies, and keeping gold prices in check. This gives the FED more room to reduce interest rates and reignite growth. Eventually, global markets always rebalance. Governments typically respond by printing more money to ease the pain, and historically, that's positive news for BINANCE:BTCUSD Cheap money policies always return; it's just a matter of when. Your job now is straightforward: - Be patient - Stay flexible - Maintain solid cash reserves Remain calm, stay sharp, and be ready for opportunities. #BTC #FED #TotalMarketCap #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoVeteran #TheCryptoFire
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TheCryptoFire
1
Will the BoJ's hawkish approach affect the yen's strength? US equity markets plunged amid growing concerns that the Trump administration's tariffs, set to be announced on April 2, could be aggressively implemented. Goldman Sachs warned that US tariff rates could reach as high as 18%, potentially shaving 1.0% off GDP growth and pushing the unemployment rate to 4.5% this year. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a continued tightening stance, stating that if persistently rising food prices lead to broader inflation, the central bank would consider raising interest rates. USDJPY broke below the support at 149.50 before retracing to 150.00. However, failing to reenter the channel, the price hovers near the channel’s lower bound. If USDJPY fails to reenter the channel, the price may break below 149.50 again. Conversely, if USDJPY reenters the channel, the price could gain upward momentum toward the resistance at 151.30.
by inkicho_exness
NAS100 - Stock market still in a downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down, it will be clear that it is heading for further moves. At the channel ceiling, I could be close to the next sell-off. As the new US tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, new evidence suggests that they may be less than the markets had expected. According to a recent report in the Toronto Star, Canada is likely to face the lowest level of tariffs, while Mexico, another member of the US trade agreement, is likely to face a similar situation. In addition, Trump’s recent statements about significant progress in controlling fentanyl (an industrial drug), are seen as a positive sign for improving trade relations. In this regard, CNBC reported that VAT and non-tariff barriers will not be taken into account in calculating the tariff rate, or at least not fully. The main concern is that by threatening to impose a 25% tariff, Trump is actually preparing Canada and Mexico to accept higher rates than the current conditions. It seems that his goal is to impose the highest possible tariff level. This decision could be an incentive to increase tariff revenue to reduce taxes. Of course, such an approach is associated with high risks, since any level of tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners. In the case of Europe, tariffs imposed on American goods are higher than in other countries, but a large part of them relate to the automotive industry. Europe has previously announced that it is ready to reduce these tariffs. The question now is whether the EU will take a different approach than Mexico and Canada? That is, first impose higher tariffs and then negotiate to reduce them. This scenario could ultimately benefit the US economy, as the bulk of its trade is with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China remains a complex challenge, as it is the main target of Trump’s tariff policies. In addition, the US president recently proposed imposing tariffs on Venezuela, which could be a pretext for intensifying trade pressure on China. Polls show that 50% of the market expects new tariffs on China, which indicates the level of investor concern. The European Union has reacted to the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on imported cars and expressed regret over the move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc will seek a negotiated solution to ease tensions, but she has also stressed that Europe’s economic interests will be protected against US trade policies. The US credit rating has risen to a new low, according to a new report from Moody’s, which warns that tax cuts and trade tariffs could widen the country’s budget deficit. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say investors expect the effective tariff rate on all imports to be between 9% and 10%, although some analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested a rate of 18%. However, inflation and exchange rate expectations point to lower figures. If Trump’s promise of “reciprocal tariffs” is implemented, the effective tariff rate could be even lower than 5 percent, although this depends on whether the agricultural sector is also subject to tariffs. Some reports also suggest that non-tariff barriers may be completely ignored. According to Deutsche Bank, it is very difficult to determine market expectations precisely. But if the tariff rate ultimately falls between 5 and 7.5 percent, markets are likely to react with more confidence. Otherwise, more volatility and turbulence in financial markets are expected. At the beginning of the year, markets were in a positive and optimistic mood. The Republican victory in the election, the continuation of tax breaks and the possibility of new support packages were among the factors that reinforced this optimism. However, factors such as the high US budget deficit, the deadlock in Congress and the high inflation rate have now challenged this optimism. Meanwhile, two important support tools that were effective in the past may no longer be as effective: 1. During Trump’s first term, the stock market was of particular importance to him. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, he constantly talked about the stock market and considered it part of his successes. The term “Put Trump” meant that even if he made harsh statements, he ultimately acted in the market’s favor. 2. But now, in Trump’s second administration, he talks about “short-term pain” and “economic detoxification.” Tariff threats, reduced investment and policy uncertainty have caused the S&P 500 to fall 10% since February. Trump still considers the market important, but he is no longer as staunchly supportive of it as he used to be. In addition, this week will include the release of a series of key economic data. Including: • Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS. • Wednesday: ADP Private Employment Report •Thursday: ISM services index and weekly jobless claims. One of the big risks to the markets is that economic data remains weak while the ISM price sub-indices rise. Such a situation could signal a deflationary tailwind. In such a situation, even if the Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates, it will still be difficult for the stock market to grow.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF Correction Due To Produce A Reversal Pattern?OANDA:USDCHF has been in a Correction Wave since the beginning of January and we now see that Price may have finally found Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level of the Correction Wave. With both Lows in March finding Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level, Price is beginning to form what looks like a Reversal Pattern, the Double Bottom! ** Confirmation of Pattern will come when Price Breaks and Closes Above .8863, then we will be looking for a Long Opportunity to present itself as a Break and Retest Set-Up. The Retest will Validate the Trade Idea! If we take the height of the Pattern and apply it to the Break of Confirmation, this puts the Potential Target at Previous Area of Support of the Correction Wave ( Point A ) in the .8975 area. Fundamentals seem to Support the Bullish Idea with: SNB Cutting Interest Rates by 25 Basis points from .5% to .25% FED Holding Interest Rates @ 4.5% due to "Economic Uncertainty" Unemployment Claims for USD came in as expected with no surprise and even 1K below Forecast ( Actual 223K / Forecast 224K ) Also Positive Outlook from Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales see USD rise. Next Weeks Final GDP on Thursday, March 27th will be the next big News Event to bring some light to how the economy is doing and if USD will continue strengthening!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
DAX Trade Log DAX Buy Setup with Ichimoku Confluence Geopolitical tensions—especially the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe—continue to influence risk sentiment, while inflation and central bank policy remain in the spotlight. The European Central Bank’s more hawkish stance contrasts with fears of slowing growth in the Eurozone. Despite these headwinds, the DAX could see a near-term bounce, supported by technical signals: 1. Ichimoku Confluence : Price is testing the Kijun and the lower edge of the cloud, aligning with a daily pivot. A close back above the Kijun/cloud area suggests potential upside. 2. Volume Spike : Recent volume surge around this support zone may indicate bullish absorption—watch for follow-through. 3. Macro Backdrop : Although persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainties loom large, short-term volatility can present trading opportunities. Keep an eye on ECB communications and any unexpected developments in global tensions. 4. Risk Management : A 120-point SL (around 2% account risk) below the key support could help protect against false breaks. Targets include the top of the cloud or previous swing highs. 5. 8-Day Cycle : Day 2 in your cycle analysis suggests a potential upswing—confirmation will come if price holds above this confluence zone. Stay vigilant, monitor news flow, and maintain discipline in your trading plan. This is not financial advice—always do your own due diligence.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
USD/CAD: Rebound Above 1.4265 or Imminent Drop?📊 Market Context The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown recent volatility with a significant surge followed by a retracement phase. The market is reacting to expectations regarding decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as fluctuations in oil prices, a key factor for the Canadian dollar. 🔍 Technical Analysis The chart analysis highlights the following key levels: Main Resistance: 1.4521 → Located in the upper zone of the chart, this level could act as a barrier to further bullish movements. Key Supports: 1.4333 - 1.4265 - 1.4239 → These levels have previously acted as bounce points and could provide a base for price recovery. Market Structure: The price reacted with a strong green candle after testing the lower support area, followed by a correction phase. Bullish Momentum: If the price holds above 1.4265, it could attempt another push towards 1.4521. 📌 Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price remains above 1.4265, we could see another push towards 1.45 and beyond. 📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.4239 could trigger a sharper decline towards the 1.41 - 1.40 range. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve: The Fed is assessing the impact of its monetary policies, with markets speculating on a potential rate cut by mid-year. Bank of Canada: The BoC maintains a cautious approach, monitoring inflation and the labor market. Oil Prices: The CAD is correlated with oil prices, so an increase in crude oil could strengthen the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower. 🎯 Conclusion Main Bias: Bullish above 1.4265, targeting 1.45. Trend Invalidation: Below 1.4239, a potential downward correction could occur.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable. He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction. What’s different this time: Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary. Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing. Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY Direction 151 After the BoJ📊 Market Context As of March 18, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate stands around 149.38, reaching its highest level since March 5. This movement is driven by expectations regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve. 🔍 Technical Analysis The technical analysis of USD/JPY highlights the following key points: Current Trend: USD/JPY shows a moderate recovery, with a 0.49% increase on March 17. Key Resistance: The area between 150.00 and 151.00 represents a significant resistance level. A decisive breakout above this zone could pave the way for further gains. Important Supports: Support levels are found at 148.00 and 146.50. A drop below these levels could indicate a deeper correction. Technical Indicators: Moving averages and key oscillators suggest a short-term bullish trend. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis Several fundamental factors are influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate: BoJ Decision: The Bank of Japan recently raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, citing higher wages and rising inflation. However, for today's meeting, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the impact of global trade tensions on the Japanese economy. U.S. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates stable in the upcoming meeting, with the Fed Funds rate projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.5%. Trade Tensions: U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration are creating economic uncertainties, influencing central bank decisions and currency markets. 🎯 Conclusion USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase near recent highs. If the BoJ maintains an accommodative monetary policy and the Fed keeps rates stable, the dollar could continue strengthening against the yen, targeting the key resistance level of 151.00. However, uncertainties related to trade tensions and future central bank actions require close monitoring by investors.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD Direction 1.10 - Technical and Fundamental Analysis📊 Market Context As of March 18, 2025, EUR/USD is in a strong bullish expansion phase, with the price testing significant resistance levels. The US dollar remains solid, but market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve and the ECB, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policies in the coming months. 🔍 Technical Analysis The chart analysis reveals a bullish trend with the following key points: Main Resistance: 1.0912 - 1.10 area (potential reversal zone highlighted in red on the chart). Key Supports: 1.0822 (former resistance now acting as support), 1.0360, and 1.0283 (deeper support levels highlighted in yellow). Market Structure: The price has tested the monthly resistance around 1.0912 and entered a potential reversal zone where significant price reactions are expected. Bullish Momentum: The trend shows strong bullish candles, indicating a possible continuation toward 1.10. 📌 Possible Scenario: If EUR/USD decisively breaks 1.0912 and closes above 1.10, there could be room for a further rally toward 1.12. 📌 Alternative Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a close below 1.0822 could trigger a bearish correction toward 1.0360. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis US Data: Consumer confidence in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since November 2022, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by June. Monetary Policy: The ECB is maintaining a more neutral stance, while the Fed may be forced to cut rates faster to support the economy. Capital Flow: The market is anticipating US dollar weakness due to the outlook for rate cuts, supporting a possible euro appreciation. 🎯 Conclusion Main Bias: Bullish above 1.0822, targeting 1.10 and beyond. Trend Invalidation: Below 1.0360, the bullish trend would weaken. EUR/USD could consolidate in this area before breaking above 1.10. The future direction will depend on upcoming central bank statements and macroeconomic data.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!) - Key Levels and Market Outlook 📌 Market Structure 🔹 Key Support Zone (~19,170 USD) The price recently bounced off this level, which has acted as a significant support area. The highlighted gray-blue zone represents a demand area where buyers stepped in. 🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~19,800 - 20,200 USD) The price is currently testing this zone, which was previously a key breakdown area. A strong rejection here could push the index back towards the 19,170 USD support. 🔹 Major Supply Zone (~21,500 - 22,400 USD) The previous peak around 22,400 USD saw strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp drop. The red-shaded area represents a heavy supply zone where sellers were dominant. 📉 Bearish Scenario A rejection at 19,800 - 20,200 USD could lead to another retest of 19,170 USD. A break below 19,170 USD would expose the index to further downside, possibly towards 18,500 - 18,200 USD. 📈 Bullish Scenario A break and close above 19,800 - 20,200 USD could trigger a move towards 21,000 - 21,500 USD. A sustained breakout above 22,400 USD would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a continuation of the uptrend. 🔎 Conclusion: The Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment, hovering around key resistance at 19,800 - 20,200 USD. A breakout or rejection from this zone will determine the short-term direction. Key factors to watch include economic data, Fed policy, and overall market sentiment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq. According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August. Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession. According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation. These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years. In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments. This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term. Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days: • Tuesday: Bank of Japan • Wednesday: Federal Reserve • Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including: • Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index • Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts. While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure 🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD) The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom. A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure. 🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD) The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance. Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range. 🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD) This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders. The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues. 📉 Bearish Scenario Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD. A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD. 📈 Bullish Scenario A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD. A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure. 🔎 Conclusion: The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback. Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction. Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD shrugs as UK GDP unexpectedly declineshe British pound has edged lower against the US dollar on Friday.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2928 in the European session, down 0.13% on the day. The UK economy barely registered any growth in the second half of 2024, rising 0.1% in the third quarter and flatlining in the third quarter.  The New Year hasn't seen any improvement, as GDP contracted 0.1% m/m in January, after a 0.4% gain in December and missing the market estimate of 0.1%. The surprise contraction was driven by declines in the production and manufacturing sectors. The economy expanded 0.2% in the three months to January, up from 0.1% in the three months to December but shy of the market estimate of 0.3%. The weak GDP report won't make things any easier for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who will announce the Treasury's "Spring Statement" on March 26.  Reeves is expected to outline plans for higher taxes and spending cuts.  The tax hikes on British businesses are expected to weigh on investment, hiring and growth. The Bank of England meets on March 20 and is widely expected to maintain rates at 4.5%.  The BoE trimmed rates by a quarter-point in February.  Inflation rose sharply in January to 3.0% y/y, up from 2.5% in December.  The rise in inflation and weak GDP has raised concerns about stagflation, which is characterized by persistent inflation and weak growth. Another headache for BoE policymakers is US President Donald Trump's tariff policy.  The UK had hoped to avoid the tariffs, but this week the US slapped 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, including on UK products.  That could hurt UK growth and boost inflation. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2949 earlier.  Above, there is resistance at 1.2978 1.2923 and 1.2894 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF: Bearish Trend Pauses, but Breakdown Risks RemainThe strong bearish trend for USD/CHF stalled this week, with buying support emerging beneath .8774, continuing the pattern seen in December. The net result has been a grind higher before running into resistance at .8854, forming what resembles a bear flag on the charts. That should put traders on alert for a potential downside break and resumption of the bearish trend. Indicators like RSI (14) and MACD are providing mixed signals on price momentum, with the former trending higher while the latter remains below the signal line. However, the modest RSI (14) uptrend looks vulnerable, mirroring the unconvincing price action. If the price breaks down from the bear flag, immediate levels of note include .8774, .8711, and .8617, the latter being a more substantial support level. On the topside, a break of .8854 would put .8920 and .8966 on the radar for bulls. The price is hanging around the 200-day moving average like a bad smell this week, but having traded through it on multiple occasions like it didn’t exist, it shouldn’t be a major consideration for traders. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
Will the stock market turn positive again?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the resistance range and the channel ceiling will also cause the Nasdaq to continue its short-term upward trend. In February 2025, the U.S. labor market grew at a slower pace than anticipated. According to published data, non-farm employment increased by 151,000 jobs in January, while expectations were set at 160,000.This indicates that while job growth continues, its momentum has been weaker than projected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February, slightly above the expected 4%. Meanwhile, labor force participation declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% during the month, aligning with forecasts. On an annual basis, wage growth reached 4%, slightly below the estimated 4.1%. Among various sectors, the highest job gains were recorded in healthcare (52,000 jobs), finance (21,000 jobs), and local government (20,000 jobs). Employment also rose in construction, transportation, social assistance, and manufacturing. Conversely, some industries experienced job losses. The hospitality sector shed 16,000 jobs, retail lost 6,000, and the federal government reduced employment by 10,000 positions. Additionally, temporary jobs declined by 12,000, signaling a potential slowdown in economic growth. Overall, the report suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains stable, certain indicators, such as rising unemployment and a decline in full-time jobs, may point to a deceleration in economic expansion. Following the report’s release, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly, but the market reaction was muted due to prior concerns over a more significant decline. Hassett, the White House economic advisor, stated that future reports are likely to show further reductions in government employment. He emphasized the administration’s plan to cut government jobs and spending while boosting employment in the manufacturing sector. He also confirmed that tariffs are inevitable, arguing that such measures will support the expected 3% to 4% economic growth. Hassett expressed doubt that President Trump would grant exemptions for steel tariffs. As investors try to adjust to Trump’s evolving trade policies, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February is set to be released on Wednesday. Given the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data from January, it is possible that CPI could be entering a new downward trend. The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation remains challenging, and the recent rise in price pressures has undoubtedly been frustrating for policymakers. However, signs indicate that U.S. inflation may be shifting course, with expectations of a decline in the coming months. One major uncertainty remains: tariffs. Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 20% increase on Chinese goods, along with additional sector-specific and retaliatory tariffs still under discussion, could undermine the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation down to 2%. In January, the overall CPI climbed to 3%, marking its highest level since June 2024. Core inflation also reached 3.3%. However, February’s data is expected to ease months of concern about inflationary resurgence, with projections indicating a decline in overall CPI to 2.9% and core inflation to 3.1%. Monthly estimates for both indices stand at 0.3%. Later in the week, Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will provide further insights into inflationary pressures, while on Friday, investors will closely monitor the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March. Last month’s survey raised alarms, as consumer inflation expectations climbed to their highest level in 30 years.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Watch credit spread increase drive toward correction territoryThe Nasdaq is already flirting with correction territory, and other major market indices may follow as the credit spread increases. As the market indicates its perceived increased risk in corporate default, this spread (high-yield bond yield minus 10y bond yield) increases independent of what the Fed does. If the recent mini-spike up to ~7.5% heads north of 10% in short order--6 to 9 weeks perhaps, I'll become proportionally bearish. The calculation: Subtract the US10Y (left/middle blue line) from the High-yield bond yield (right purple line) to obtain the spread. As of 7 Mar 2025, 11.95% - 4.305% = 7.65%
TVC:US10YShort
by davidlfox
1
CAD/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Market Drivers📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels: Major Resistance at 108.32 Price previously rejected from this strong supply zone. Moving averages (yellow & red lines) are acting as dynamic resistance. Short-term Resistance at 106.00-107.00 Failed bullish attempt, leading to a strong reversal. A break above this area is needed to shift momentum bullishly. 📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels: Support at 102.00-101.50 (Demand Zone) Significant buyer interest in this area. If the price reaches this zone, a potential bounce could occur. Deeper Support at 99.00-100.00 If 102.00 fails, the next demand level is in the high 90s, marking a critical long-term support. 📉 Current Market Outlook: CAD/JPY is in a strong downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lower lows. The price is testing key support areas, and further movement depends on upcoming economic events. A potential bounce could occur at 102.00, but failure to hold could trigger further declines toward 99.00. 📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers 🔹 Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision – March 12, 2025 Expected rate cut from 3.00% to 2.75% → Bearish for CAD. A dovish stance signals weakness in the Canadian economy, potentially pushing CAD/JPY lower. If the BoC provides an aggressive rate cut or hints at further easing, the downtrend could continue. 🔹 Japan Current Account (January) – March 7, 2025 Expected at 370B JPY (significantly lower than previous 1077.3B JPY). A lower-than-expected surplus may weaken JPY, slightly offsetting CAD weakness. If JPY remains strong despite this data, CAD/JPY could fall further toward 101.50-100.00. 📈 Potential Trading Setups: 🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 103.00, confirming further weakness. Target 1: 102.00 Target 2: 100.00 Stop Loss: Above 104.50 to avoid volatility spikes. 🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario - Retracement Play): Entry: Strong bullish rejection from 102.00 Target 1: 105.00 Target 2: 108.00 Stop Loss: Below 101.50 to limit downside risk. 📌 Final Thoughts: The BoC rate decision will likely be bearish for CAD, increasing downward pressure on CAD/JPY. The Japan Current Account data could provide temporary support for JPY but is unlikely to fully reverse the trend. 102.00-101.50 is a key buying zone, while failure to hold could drive the pair toward 99.00-100.00. 🚨 Key Watch Zones: 102.00 Support & 108.00 Resistance – Strong moves expected!
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBPUSD - Dollar’s ​​view on jobs data!The GBPUSD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be sold to narrow it. Last week ended with an unexpected shock for economists: estimates pointed to a significant trade imbalance in the United States for January, primarily driven by a sharp surge in imports. The data indicated that U.S. businesses had made extensive efforts to ramp up foreign purchases ahead of the imposition of new tariffs. Economic analysts expressed concerns that this trend could negatively impact U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, as increased imports are typically subtracted from gross domestic product calculations. However, Goldman Sachs experts presented a different perspective. They argue that the unexpected surge in imports was mainly due to an influx of gold bars into the U.S.—a trend that reflects the dynamics of the global precious metals market and the price disparity between gold in London and New York. According to data cited by Goldman Sachs, the U.S. imported approximately $25 billion worth of gold in January, meaning that a substantial portion of the commodity trade deficit was driven by gold transactions. Since gold is generally considered a financial asset, these imports are not factored into GDP calculations. As a result, the actual economic impact of this growing trade deficit may be significantly lower than initially perceived. Currently, financial markets anticipate a 77-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. However, this expectation largely hinges on the trajectory of inflation. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding tariff policies remains high. A new report from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that inflation expectations among businesses have risen. According to the report, projected inflation for the next year has increased from 3% to 3.5% among manufacturing firms and from 3% to 4% among service-based companies. Additionally, many businesses foresee a significant rise in operational costs in 2025. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests that traders no longer expect the Bank of England to implement two rate cuts this year. Taylor, a member of the central bank, stated that every policy meeting carries great importance. He noted that the output gap—the difference between actual and potential production—may be larger than previous Bank of England estimates. Taylor emphasized that monetary policies should gradually return to normal and that a cautious approach is necessary when dealing with multiple price shocks. Furthermore, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, stressed that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks moving in both directions. He stated that while inflation is expected to rise, it will not resemble the severe inflationary periods of recent years. According to Bailey, decisions on rate cuts will depend on inflation trends, which have so far remained within an acceptable range. He also noted that the likelihood of second-round inflationary effects—where slowing economic growth leads to renewed price pressures—has diminished.
Short
by Ali_PSND