Zambian Kwacha Technical Outlook - A Wave Analysts PerspectiveUSDZMW seems to have reached what appears to be a major market top after completing a classic 5 wave Elliott impulse cycle on the monthly timeframe. This marks the end of a multi-decade bullish structure and signals the beginning of a corrective phase potentially reshaping Zambia’s FX landscape in the medium term.
Key Technical Insights:
The final Wave 5 peaked at 28.97, followed by a sharp decline to 23.90 (at the time of this publication).
A corrective ABC structure is now likely underway with fibonacci based downside targets around:
Target 1: $1 = K22.31 – minor correction (23.6%)
Target 2: $1 = K18.30 – medium correction (38.2%)
Target 3: $1 = K15.05 – deep retracement (50% of the main wave on monthly TF)
While various fundamentals, copper prices, debt restructuring and prevailing fiscal policies play a role, this technical setup suggests a strong medium to long term appreciation of the Kwacha is on the cards.
We may be witnessing the early stages of a multiyear FX shift.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes ONLY and does not constitute financial advice in any way. Market conditions are subject to change and all trading involves risk.
