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FOMC

SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either. Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet. They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now. Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence. So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high. If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for FOMC?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index continues to move upwards towards 21,000 points, we can look for the next Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, U.S. equity markets experienced $8.9 billion in capital outflows, while equity markets in Japan and the European Union saw net inflows. Additionally, U.S. Treasury bonds recorded an outflow of $4.5 billion—the largest since December 2023. Meanwhile, the gold market witnessed its first weekly investment decline since January. Looking ahead, financial markets are focused on the upcoming earnings reports from major companies across sectors such as technology, healthcare, automotive, energy, and financial services. These reports are expected to significantly influence equity trends, investment strategies, and corporate outlooks. Below is a daily breakdown of key companies set to release earnings this week: Monday, May 5, 2025 The week starts with a focus on the healthcare and biotech sectors: • Before market open: Companies such as Palantir, Ford, Onsemi, and Tyson Foods will report earnings. Palantir and Ford are particularly noteworthy for investors in the tech and auto sectors. • After market close: Healthcare firms like Hims & Hers Health, Axsome Therapeutics, and financial company CNA Financial will report. Tuesday, May 6, 2025 Tuesday highlights several key tech earnings: • Before market open: Celsius, Datadog, Rivian, and Tempus will publish their results. Rivian’s report is especially anticipated due to the intense competition in the electric vehicle space. • After market close: Tech giants like AMD and Arista Networks will release earnings, along with Marriott from the hospitality sector. Wednesday, May 7, 2025 A packed day for earnings reports: • Before market open: Reports from Uber and Teva are expected, along with ARM Holdings, a key player in semiconductors. • After market close: AppLovin, Unity, and Robinhood will release their reports—representing digital gaming, software, and fintech respectively. Thursday, May 8, 2025 This day centers on digital health, cryptocurrency, and e-commerce: • Before market open: Peloton and Shopify will report. Shopify’s performance is particularly critical in the online retail sector. • After market close: Crypto firm Coinbase and online sports betting platform DraftKings are in focus. Friday, May 9, 2025 Fewer companies will report, but some are of strategic interest: • Firms like 1stdibs, Ani Pharmaceuticals, and Embecta are scheduled, as well as Telos and Algonquin—key names in energy and cybersecurity investing. This week, markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. At the March session, the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year, based on its dot plot—suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing. Simultaneously, April’s U.S. Services PMI is set to be released today, providing clearer insights into post-tariff business activity. Amazon’s CEO stated that, so far, there is no indication of reduced demand due to tariff concerns. Some inventory spikes were noted in specific categories, likely driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation. Retail prices, on average, have not significantly increased, and most sellers have yet to raise prices—though that could change depending on how tariff policies evolve. Notably, essential goods have grown at twice the rate of other categories and now account for a third of all unit sales in the U.S. Following April’s jobs report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June dropped from 75% to 42%. With only one more employment report due before the June 18 meeting, hopes for an early policy shift have faded. Some analysts argue that without the tariff conflict, the Fed might already be cutting rates, given the downward trend in inflation, steady growth, and Congressional focus on fiscal measures. The April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remains resilient—neither too strong to spark inflation fears nor too weak to trigger panic. After the release, with market confidence rebounding, Goldman Sachs forecasted the Fed’s first rate cut to come at the July 30 meeting. The consensus expectation is for the Fed funds rate to remain in the current 4.25%-4.5% range, unchanged since January. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns just a 1.8% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Economists warn that Trump’s newly imposed tariffs—active since April—could drive up prices and hurt employment, challenging the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling both inflation and joblessness. However, recent data shows inflation remained mild in March and the labor market held steady in April. Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “The data is strong enough for the Fed to stay on the sidelines and monitor how tariffs influence inflation and expectations.” While hard data remains stable, forecasts and sentiment surveys signal looming challenges. Business leaders and individuals express concern that rising costs may burden consumers and businesses in the coming months or years, possibly even tipping the economy into recession.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
SPY/SPX: FOMC. Do we get rate cuts or do we even get a hike?!TA on SPY but I also like playing SPX. Was seeing this as either a rising wedge, and if play (with FOMC etc.) can touch and retest 551.41 then back move back up to test 562.81 and to out at 567.85 IF market reacts well to FOMC, maybe ATH? If not, we actually fulfill that rising wedge to 543.54 with a small gap to touch/retest at 534.54 I may sit sidelines until FOMC to catch the move and waves. Always wait for the set up to come to you! One of the rules I try to keep following but I break. Let me know what you think. Will continue to update as it the week progresses. Again, do your own DD. Not financial advice.
AMEX:SPY
by sweatytrigger
GBPUSD Forecast: Double Top or Flat?In contrast to EURUSD, the GBPUSD chart reflects a double top or flat rather than a head-and-shoulders pattern. However, unlike DXY and EURUSD, GBPUSD hasn’t broken below its neckline, maintaining a bullish bias as RSI continues to show positive momentum. • Upside Scenario : If the pair breaks above the 1.3345 high, the next targets are 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3440, and 1.3500, in the direction of the duplicated channel confirming the possible consolidation as a flat. • Downside Scenario : A break below the neckline and 1.3200 support could trigger a decline toward 1.3080, confirming a double top formation on the pair. Volatility catalysts for this week range between the FOMC Outlook and BOE Meeting, between Wednesday and Thursday, following their respective rate decisions Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift🟡 GOLD MARKET UPDATE – Trend Breakouts and Market Structure Shift Gold has broken through both the parallel ascending channel and a narrow triangle pattern at the edges, resulting in a strong buying momentum (FOMO BUY). This move can be attributed to a mild positive shift in the US stock market yesterday, along with some upward momentum in the Asian and European markets today. 📉 Current Situation: It’s still unclear whether this movement is tied to positive news about tariffs, but an important level to watch is 3075 – 3077. If this level is breached, it may be time to reassess the outlook and consider shifting towards a BUY. 💡 Currently, there’s strong buying activity during the European session. It’s recommended to avoid jumping into BUY positions at these levels and to refrain from selling too aggressively. 📌 Scenario for Today: Look for potential BUY opportunities at the important levels 3030 – 3018 during the European session, and stay tuned for updates regarding FOMC tonight. 🔮 Be Cautious: The FOMC meeting will take place later today, which could lead to significant market movements. Be prepared for potential volatility and liquidity sweeps in less liquid areas. 🧭 Key Technical Levels: 🔺 Resistance: 3075 – 3090 – 3110 🔻 Support: 3030 – 3018 – 3000 – 2988 – 2974 🎯 Trade Setup: 🔴 SELL ZONE: 3074 – 3076 SL: 3080 TP: 3070 – 3066 – 3062 – 3058 – 3054 – 3050 – 3040 🟢 BUY ZONE: 2976 – 2974 SL: 2970 TP: 2980 – 2984 – 2988 – 2992 – 2996 – 3000 📌 Reminder: The market is currently very sensitive, so stick to risk management rules, ensure full TP/SL implementation, and avoid making hasty decisions. Be cautious and watch the market movements closely! — AD | Money Market Flow
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MMFlowTrading
6
Gold Bulls in Control, But a Trap Might Be Coming ahead of FOMCGold remains in a strong uptrend with minimal pullbacks, and we are now approaching all-time highs. With the FOMC interest rate decision later today, volatility is expected. Historically, in similar scenarios, gold tends to break its ATH before experiencing a sharp reversal due to increased liquidity. If this pattern plays out again, I will be looking for potential short opportunities once liquidity is trapped at higher levels. However, the trend remains bullish, so proper risk management is essential. If you are considering shorts, ensure you use a well-placed stop loss and follow your own strategy. 📌 Stay updated with new ideas, and feel free to share your insights in the comments! 📢 If you found this analysis helpful, a boost is always appreciated! 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by omz_zz
2
BTC Update 4 Hour/ FOMC Day March 19, 2025, GAME PLAN!🚨 FOMC Day Update – March 19, 2025 🚨 BTC at ~$83,244 (+0.28%–1%) as markets stay cautious. Fear & Greed at 23, RSI at 44.05 = neutral momentum. While BTC is trading below all significant EMs, 50 100 and 200, It has broken above the 21EMA which is bullish for the short term. Fed likely to hold rates at 4.25%–4.50% (99% odds) – a surprise cut could ignite a BTC rally. Whale accumulation signals potential upside. Sentiment data and whale accumulation hint towards a possible upside but only if FED surprises with a rate cut. The current pump in the market will be short-lived if there's no change in the rates which is very likely. So be careful with your longs and shorts. Volatility will kill both bears and bulls. You need to keep an eye on Powell’s 2:30 PM EST speech. Inflation & liquidity outlook will shape BTC’s next move. Stay sharp! I'll keep you updated. Let me know what you think in the comments and do hit that like button if you like this post. Thank you #PEACE
by Cryptorphic
7
THE KOG REPORT - FOMCTHE KOG REPORT – FOMC This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. While gold is relatively new to this range we have to entail some caution if we’re even going to consider trading this FOMC. Markets are a little fragile, we’re at ATH’s and the moves are extremely aggressive. So, we’ll highlight the red box levels and the potential move we’ll be looking for, sticking to the extreme and key levels, ignoring the intermediate levels. Looking at the chart we have a support region below 3010-15 which if spiked into and held can push this back up this time to break above 3030 and attempt to attack that 3050 region. That in our opinion would be the first point to start looking for price to exhaust, but it will only give us the flip so longer scalps are likely to be all we’ll get. If we break above the 3055 region we’re likely to go higher giving us a red box resistance level of 3065-75. It’s this level we would ideally like to target from a lot lower down if we can get that entry. For that reason, we have given the level below on the break of 3010 sitting around 2990-80, we’ll have to wait and see, but if we can get down there a nice swing could present itself. RED BOX INDICATOR: Break above 3030 for 3050, 3055, 3063 and 3070 in extension of the move Break below 3020 for 3912, 3006, 2996 and 2990 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
The Fed Cuts Balance Sheet Runoff by 80% - BULLISH!RISK-ON 🚨 I’m seeing so many people incorrectly analyzing the September 2019 emergency repo OMOs, which were short-term liquidity injections from the Fed, and then comparing it to the price of BTC going down, before QE officially started in March 2020 because of the pandemic. Here’s what really happened. September 15, 2019 was a tax deadline, pulling ~$100B out of markets as large corporations paid the IRS and funds flew into the TGA. Meanwhile, the Treasury issued new T-Bills to rebuild cash reserves following the post-debt ceiling resolution in August, draining another $50-100B as big banks and institutions absorbed the securities. During this time, the Fed continued reducing its balance sheet (QT) down to $3.76T, but the balance sheet did not leave enough slack for unexpected cash drains to the system, such as corporate taxes and Treasury issuance. Unfortunately, the Fed was flying blind and did not have a hard number estimate for “ample reserves” in the banking system. These reserves were largely hoarded by a few of the larger banking institutions due to Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) rules and a higher IOER at 2.1% vs the ON RRP rate of 1.7% - a 40 bp spread. This caused a liquidity crisis in the US repo market because bank reserves held at the Fed ($1.36T) were too low and repo lending dried up. Banks weren’t able to access each other’s reserves to fund daily operations. SOUND FAMILIAR !? The US just resolved its CR to avoid a government shutdown, and they will be refilling the TGA by issuing new T-Bills. The reverse repo facility is also nearly drained. Today, we heard the Fed will be reducing its securities runoff from $25B - SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B on April 1st, an 80% adjustment. One of the main drivers is they wanted to get ahead of another 2019-style repo crisis (although they won’t say this), rather than being reactive and having to perform emergency OMOs once again. Now to go back to my original point with people saying the Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff is a big nothingburger based on BTC price action in 2019. BTC dumped because of the repo crisis, NOT because markets needed QE. By early 2020, the liquidity crisis was resolved, and BTC pumped ~45% before the pandemic hit in March and nuked the chart. Proof is in the pudding - just look at the 2017 bull market. QT started in October 2017, and the market ripped until early 2018. The Fed reducing its balance sheet runoff by 80% is definitely a signal of risk-on for educated market participants, as it leaves more reserves in the financial system, which gives banks more liquidity to loan the market. i.e. M2 go up. But keep listening to your favorite large accounts who are all of a sudden macro gurus, what do I know 🤓
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jonnieking
BTC - In depth analysis leading up to the FOMC decision today!BTC Price Action Analysis Ahead of the Fed Decision In this analysis, we will discuss the current price action of BTC leading up to the Federal Reserve's rate decision later today. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to release its rate decision and Dot Plot. Following this, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the current federal funds rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This decision aligns with the Fed's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties, particularly those stemming from recent trade policies and tariff implementations by the Trump administration. Investors and market participants are eagerly awaiting the Fed’s updated economic projections, which will offer insights into the central bank’s outlook on growth, inflation, and employment. These projections will be crucial in assessing how the Fed plans to navigate current economic challenges. 4H BTC Chart Analysis Currently, BTC is forming a tightening consolidation pattern, characterized by equal highs and higher lows. This suggests that BTC could potentially break to the upside by taking out liquidity above resistance. There are numerous stop-loss orders accumulating just above this resistance level. If BTC manages to trigger these stop-losses, it is likely to revisit the Golden Pocket (Fib 0.618 - 0.65). Meanwhile, the Stochastic RSI is rapidly rising towards the overbought zone, indicating that if BTC reaches the Golden Pocket, we could see a retracement from that level. The overall price action remains bearish until BTC clears the 92k level. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, BTC’s price action remains bearish until a higher high above 92K is established. During this correction, BTC has formed a clear downward trendline. We need to wait for a breakout above this trendline and 92K before considering long setups on higher timeframes. The Stochastic RSI on the daily chart is also moving into the overbought zone, indicating that BTC’s momentum may peak in the coming days, potentially leading to downside pressure. Because of this, the 73K support zone remains a key level to watch. For now, a temporary bounce could occur, but further downside remains likely. Traders should focus on risk management when opening long positions at these levels. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment! Lets chat in the comment section. See you there :)
by Youriverse
9
Pt. 2 of Navigating NQ during FOMCPart 2. Continuation showing my thoughts and trade stop out. Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure: The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading. Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary. BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC): Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms. Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement: CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk. Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results. General Trading Disclaimer: Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations. Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility. By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by BDripTradess
Navigating PRE FOMC on NQTrade Idea for NQ, we could've captured a good amount of points, I was targeting higher buyside liquidity so it led to this trade being stopped out. Total loss was around -$19 after shifting sl near BE. Pt. 2 for this trade where I show you my stop out will be posted next. Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure: The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading. Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary. BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC): Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms. Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement: CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk. Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results. General Trading Disclaimer: Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations. Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility. By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
CME_MINI:NQH2025Long
by BDripTradess
USDJPY Tests Cup and Handle Formation Ahead of FOMCUSDJPY has formed a cup-and-handle pattern just below the 150 level. Today, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.50%. Wage negotiations so far indicate a 5.46% wage increase, which Governor Ueda described as "somewhat strong." Combined with rising food prices, the risk of further inflation has increased. Japan's inflation has remained above 2% since early 2022, and there’s no sign of that trend reversing anytime soon. In light of these factors, the BOJ is likely to consider a rate hike in May. However, today’s market focus will shift to the FOMC. The Fed is expected to raise its inflation and unemployment forecasts while lowering its growth forecast due to the anticipated effects of new U.S. trade policies. These stagflationary pressures are likely to keep the Fed’s rates elevated for an extended period. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut this year (instead of two as projected in December), the dollar index may begin to recover. The 150 level remains a key resistance for USDJPY. A confirmed breakout of the cup-and-handle pattern has the potential to push the pair towards the 153 level over the medium term. However, given the underlying fundamentals favoring BOJ rate hikes, any upward movement will likely be slower and more choppy, unless of course FOMC goes full hawkish. On the downside, if the Fed is less hawkish than expected, 149 (and sliglty below)becomes the critical support to watch. A break below 149 would invalidate the bullish pattern and shift momentum to the downside for USDJPY.
by ftdsystem
2
Gold is on Fire—But Can Bulls Hold the Line?Gold has been surging, and while I expected it to hit $3,000 this year, I definitely didn’t anticipate it happening in the first semester... So, let’s address the big question: Can the bulls maintain this level? Looking at the chart, since early March, TRADENATION:XAUUSD has climbed 2,000 pips (around 7%), but what stands out is that 1,500 of those pips (5%) came in just one week. No matter how strong the bullish momentum and fundamentals are, I believe this kind of rally is unsustainable. Technical Outlook After pulling back from its all-time high of 2,950, gold made a false breakout, followed by an almost vertical move upward, briefly interrupted by two consolidation phases. Fundamental Factors The FOMC meeting is today, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, the real market mover will be Jerome Powell’s press conference. His comments could trigger significant price action. My Take I expect gold to start correcting after the press conference, regardless of what Powell says. However, this is a highly risky trade, so I’ll stay on the sidelines until I see a clear reversal signal. Final Thoughts At the time of writing, gold is consolidating within another rectangular range, with resistance at 3,040. If we see a spike above and then a drop back to around 3,030, that would signal ( for me ) that gold has topped—at least for now. In that case, I’ll be looking to short with a target of at least 500 pips. Until then, my approach is simple: wait and see. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
13
GBP/USD - 1.30 Break I've been monitoring Cable closely, waiting for a clean break above the 1.30 resistance level. Since the start of the month, no solid entry has presented itself, but the bulls seem to be gaining momentum as time progresses. The chart is shaping up well, with 1.30 acting as a key resistance level. We've already seen multiple rejections this month, with price coming within 10 pips before reversing sharply. If we get a confirmed breakout above 1.30, I'll be watching for a retest to establish it as support before entering a long position. The target is set at the psychological level of 1.325, aiming for a 3:1 risk-to-reward.
Long
by InvestorJordan
Gold Forecast: Key Levels Above $3,000Gold remains persistent in targeting its inverted head and shoulders pattern on the daily timeframe, eyeing the 3,040-resistance. However, monthly overbought conditions—seen in 2024, 2020, and 2011—raise caution for potential sharp reversals. • In 2011, an overbought RSI led to a nearly 900-point retracement • In 2020, a similar overbought condition resulted in a nearly 450-point decline • In November 2024, another overbought reading triggered a nearly 250-point drop • Now, gold has once again reached these overbought levels, raising caution for a potential momentum recharge. Key Events: 🔹Israel-Gaza tensions escalate as the 2-month ceasefire ends 🔹Trump and Putin negotiate a ceasefire with #Ukraine 🔹The US Dollar weakens amid trade war risks, with focus on Wednesday’s FOMC for the long-term outlook Key Levels: 🔺Above 3,040: The trend could extend to 3,080 🔻Below 3,040: A reversal may test 3,000, 2,955, 2,930, and 2,900 - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
ES Futures Market Outlook & Key LevelsCME_MINI:ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here. Rollover Notice: Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025. Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , FOMC press conference , and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025. Key Levels to Watch: • Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25 • Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805 • Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75 • Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25 Market Scenarios: Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put") The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections. Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0 If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Dow Holds Steady Above 41,000Unlike the Nasdaq and SP500, Dow did not trace the full potential of its double top formation between 2024 and 2025 peaks, yet in a similar manner to the US indices, it rebounded from the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the May 2024-Jan 2025 uptrend, coinciding with oversold levels on the 3-Day RSI previously seen in October 2023. The Dow’s rebound from the 40,660 low aligns with the bottom end of the duplicated channel of its respected up-trend between May 2024 and Jan 2025, strengthening positive rebound opportunities in tandem with the broader market sentiment. Should the Dow hold above the 41,000-mark, levels 41,700, 42,600, and 43,400 may come back to play. From the downside, a clean close back below the 40,600-mark can extend losses in the direction of the double top formation’s target, aligning with possible support levels at 40,200, 39,500, and 38,700. Key Events to Watch: - Trade war Developments - FOMC Meeting on Wednesday Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq. According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August. Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession. According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation. These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years. In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments. This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term. Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days: • Tuesday: Bank of Japan • Wednesday: Federal Reserve • Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including: • Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index • Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts. While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND