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DXY H1 - Short before longDXY H1 Very good morning all, here is our update on the dollar index, last week we saw bulls storm the markets following various different data points. The bull run has sustained and Mondays trading session saw indecisive price movement in the form of consolidation. We are looking like we want to break to the downside. Slowly, but hopefully surely we start to see price pull down towards our anticipated buy zone of around 101.850 price, this is where we would find support amongst a few timeframes, aligning with our confluence zone. Same bias as yesterday, until we see a break of this area of consolidation.
TVC:DXY
by Trade_Simple_FX
Will NZD/USD Extend Losses? Traders Await RBNZ’s Interest RateThe NZD/USD pair continues its downward trend, turning lower for the sixth straight day as traders react to the less-than-optimistic Chinese economic outlook. As China remains New Zealand's largest trading partner, any signs of economic slowdown in China tend to have a significant impact on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Focus on RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision following its scheduled policy meeting. If the RBNZ adopts a hawkish stance due to rising inflationary pressures, it is likely to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR). A rate hike would typically attract more capital inflows, providing support to the NZD. Conversely, if the central bank takes a more dovish approach by lowering the OCR in response to lower inflation, the NZD could weaken further. The RBNZ’s decision will play a crucial role in determining the short-term direction of NZD/USD. Higher rates generally boost a currency, while lower rates tend to weaken it as investors seek higher returns elsewhere. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Remains In our previous forecast, which you can review here: NZD/USD Slips as Fed Powell Hints at Gradual Rate Cuts, we closed a bearish position from a supply area after successfully capturing downside movement. The current price action suggests another potential bearish impulse, particularly around the 0.60500 level. In a worst-case scenario for the NZD, the price could drop further to 0.58750, another key demand area based on historical support. However, we view this deeper decline as less likely at the moment, given that market sentiment may shift based on the RBNZ's upcoming decision. Waiting for a Bullish Setup Currently, we have no open position on NZD/USD, as we wait for the pair to reach a demand area before considering a potential bullish trade. The demand zone around 0.60500 is a critical level to watch for any signs of reversal, but we remain cautious and are monitoring upcoming economic events closely. Conclusion As the NZD/USD pair continues to slide, all eyes are on the RBNZ and its interest rate decision. Traders should remain vigilant, as a hawkish move could trigger a rebound in the New Zealand Dollar, while dovish policies may deepen the pair's decline. For now, we are on the sidelines, awaiting a clearer opportunity to enter the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: USD Remains Strong as Market Awaits Key Economic DataThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to show strength at the start of the new week, holding firm against the Euro. The Greenback surged last Friday after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which revealed a healthier-than-expected US labor market. This solid performance in the world’s largest economy has reassured investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not need to implement aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term. With the stronger labor market, the likelihood of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November has dropped significantly to around 5%, while expectations have shifted to a smaller 25 bps cut in the upcoming meeting. Focus Shifts to Upcoming Economic Data As we move into the week, market attention is firmly on upcoming key events. Tomorrow, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will provide further insights into the Fed’s stance on interest rates. Following that, Wednesday will bring the release of significant data, including the Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, CPI y/y, and Unemployment Claims. These releases will be crucial in shaping the market's expectations for the Fed’s next moves. While forecasts for these economic reports suggest a potentially worse scenario for the US Dollar, the Greenback has continued to rally over the past week. The direction of the USD may only become clearer after these critical data releases, as they will offer a more detailed picture of the inflationary landscape and labor market health. Technical Analysis: Demand Zones in Focus In the EUR/USD chart, we have identified two key demand areas. The demand zone highlighted in the gold rectangle appears the most plausible if the price drops following the release of the economic news. This area could serve as a critical point for traders to look for potential buy opportunities if the market reacts negatively to the data. At present, we are not holding any active positions in EUR/USD and are carefully watching for the price to approach an area of interest before making any moves. Patience will be key as we await the impact of this week’s economic announcements on the market. Conclusion The US Dollar’s strength remains intact as we head into a week filled with pivotal economic data. With the FOMC Meeting Minutes and inflation data on the horizon, the market is eagerly awaiting clearer direction. For now, the USD is holding its ground, but traders should stay vigilant and wait for confirmation from the upcoming news releases before making any major trading decisions. We remain on standby, watching the EUR/USD pair closely, and will assess potential trade opportunities as the market reacts to the economic developments. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Understanding Turtle Soup: A Dive Into Liquidity Raids📍 Turtle Trading Turtle Soup is a distinctive trading strategy developed by Linda Bradford Raschke, as detailed in her acclaimed book, “Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies.” This strategy draws inspiration from another well-known approach called Turtle Trading, which gained prominence in the early 1980s through legendary traders Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt. The term "Turtles" refers to a group of traders who participated in an ambitious experiment conducted by Dennis and Eckhardt in 1983. Dennis affectionately dubbed his students “turtles,” inspired by the turtle farms he visited in Singapore. This charming nickname symbolized his belief that, just like the turtles in those farms, he could help his traders grow rapidly and efficiently within the competitive landscape of the financial markets. Together, these strategies reflect innovative approaches to trading that continue to influence market participants today. 📍 Essence of the Turtle Trading Strategy The essence of the Turtle Trading strategy lies in trend following. This approach is articulated through a set of straightforward rules: Long Positions: Traders consider entering long positions when the price breaks above a predefined high. This break signals a potential upward trend, prompting traders to capitalize on upward momentum. Short Positions: Conversely, traders look to enter short positions when the price breaks below a predefined low. This break indicates a potential downward trend, allowing traders to profit from falling prices. These simple yet effective rules enable traders to identify and take advantage of trending markets, helping them make informed trading decisions based on price action. The Turtle Trading strategy has become a cornerstone in the world of systematic trading. 📍 Turtle Soup Strategy Linda Raschke's Turtle Soup strategy takes a contrarian approach to the traditional Turtle Trading method. While the classic Turtle Trading strategy advocates for going long after a breakout above a recent high and shorting after a breakout below a recent low, Turtle Soup implements a reversal of this idea, focusing on "false breakouts." 📍 Key Elements of Turtle Soup: Long Positions: The strategy suggests opening a long position when the price breaks below the 20-day low. This might initially appear counterintuitive, as it involves buying after a dip. However, the premise is that a breakout may attract sellers, and once prices decrease sufficiently, the market could reverse, allowing traders to profit from a bounce back upwards. Short Positions: Conversely, a short position is initiated when the price breaks above the 20-day high. In this case, the idea is that many breakouts fail to sustain momentum. Following the initial price surge above resistance, sellers might step in, leading to a price reversal, thus creating an opportunity for a profitable short position. The Turtle Soup strategy is based on the observation that breakouts do not always result in continued price movement in the breakout direction. Many breakouts can be "false," meaning that after an initial push, prices trend back in the opposite direction. By capitalizing on these potential reversals, traders using Turtle Soup hope to benefit from the corrections that often follow breakouts. 📍 Smart Money ICT methodology emphasizes a strategic approach often referred to as "smart money." This approach involves leveraging liquidity in the market, specifically through stop orders strategically placed behind price swings to establish trading positions. Here's how the process unfolds: liquidity situated just beyond recent highs—known as Buy Stops or Buyside Liquidity—is typically utilized to initiate short positions. Conversely, liquidity positioned below recent lows, referred to as Sell Stops or Sellside Liquidity, is exploited to trigger long positions. This sophisticated trading strategy is versatile and applicable not only in short-term trading scenarios but also during breakouts above the 20-day highs and minima. Furthermore, it can be effectively employed in intraday trading, scalping, and various other trading methodologies, thanks to the fractal nature of price action in the markets. Examplse 📍 Strategy Application A key distinction in applying this trading strategy lies in the differing approaches of notable traders. Linda Raschke emphasizes the pursuit of liquidity within a 20-day timeframe, focusing solely on the movements of recent highs and lows. In contrast, smart money practitioners implement this methodology across shorter timeframes, enhancing their strategy with liquidity zones. ICT has further refined this approach, broadening its scope and elucidating the rationale behind price behavior through the lens of market efficiency. By doing so, ICT provides traders with a deeper understanding of how to navigate and capitalize on market dynamics effectively. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
2
Are The Bulls Still Up To IT?On this pair, we see that the Weekly chart is ready to resume its long held bearishness. Over the past few days, we have witnessed prices rally all the way up (a Bullish retracement inside a bearish swing), driving prices into our marked out Weekly reversal zone. As expected, the zone held, and we began to see reversals, with prices turning bearish from that point. But the thing is this, that bullish retracement on the weekly came as a result of a bullish extension on the daily chart. The pertinent question before us now is whether or not the bulls of the daily chart will be able to come in strongly enough to contain the current bearish push and hold prices in a bullish trend. Here is my take. It is common knowledge that the lower time frames move in consonance with (in obedience to) the higher timeframes... lol (the word "obedience" got me laughing for a bit. But let's cyt back to the chase) Now we have seen the daily printing a bullish narrative. But we are all expected to believe that the bullish trend sustained by the daily has the primary intention and purpose of driving prices in the direction of the higher timeframe, which in this case is the weekly chart. We therefore believe that all of that bullish push was to drive prices into the Weekly reversal zone. With that being fulfilled, price is expected to move in the direction of the Weekly over and above the daily direction. This is the regular theory and philosophy of the forex market. But will that narrative hold sway this time around? We see prices now dipping bearish. This is an extension for the Weekly chart, and at the same time a retracement on the daily bullish swing. In the event that the Daily zone holds (which is less likely), we will expect to see prices reverse bullish, begin totally and move to take out Daily liquidity target above. This will result in a deeper retracement inside the Weekyl zone, or a complete breach of the zone. Where the zone is breached, we will look to see the market print higher prices and go all the way up. On the other hand, if the bearish perspective of the Weekly holds, we will expect to see the Daily zone breached, at which point we will expect prices to dip towards the weekly liquidity target below. So guys, who do you thing is gonna win the day, the Bulls of the Daily or the Bears of the Weekly? share your thoughts in the comment section
Short
by PanzyPips
EUR/USD Under Pressure Despite Eurozone Retail Sales ReboundThis morning, the Eurozone Retail Sales data showed a slight rebound, rising 0.8% year-on-year (YoY) in August, compared to the 1.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, retail sales increased by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, after being flat in July, according to data released by Eurostat. While this rebound reflects some recovery in consumer activity, the data missed market expectations, which has limited its impact on the Euro. Despite these figures, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, largely due to stronger sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. The economic data from the Eurozone was marked as low-impact, further minimizing its influence on the currency pair. As a result, the price of EUR/USD continues to feel the weight of broader market forces. Sentiment Analysis: COT Report Shows Divergence The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting shift in market sentiment. Retail traders have turned bearish on EUR/USD over the past week, likely reacting to the stronger USD performance and weaker-than-expected Eurozone data. On the other hand, Smart Money (institutional traders) has begun building long positions, suggesting a potential upside as these large market participants start positioning for a future rebound. Technical Outlook: Eyes on the 1.08500 Demand Area We previously closed a bearish position on EUR/USD after a successful trade, as noted in our forecast here: EUR/USD Previous closed Forecast. Looking forward, we are awaiting further price action before considering new positions. The 1.08500 level is a key demand area where we expect the price may find support and possibly reject the previous low. A decline to this area seems likely, and we are watching closely for consolidation and potential entry signals around this level. At the moment, however, we remain on the sidelines until a clearer opportunity presents itself. Conclusion While the Eurozone Retail Sales figures showed a modest rebound, they missed expectations, and the overall impact on the EUR/USD pair has been minimal. The pair remains under pressure, with the USD benefiting from recent economic data and hawkish remarks from the US Federal Reserve. We are watching for a potential price drop to the 1.08500 demand area, where a rebound could occur, but no new positions will be taken until the market offers clearer signals. For now, patience is key as we wait for EUR/USD to reach an area of interest that may provide a solid entry point. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Cross Roads for the CableOn the Weekly, we see that the market is in a Bullish swing. After prices rallied to form the high, it has begun the bearish retracement, dipping towards the reversal zones which are refined from the existing PB of the Weekly. This narrative above is also the same for the Daily chart. On the Daily, not only dow e see a chart that is bullish and now retracing bearish into the refined zone, but we can notice that at this time, price is well inside the zone, and even threatening to break bearish and breach the zone. Now my analysis: I expect the Daily reversal zone to hold. Where that happens, we expect to see prices go all the way up to hit Daily liquidity target and at the same time give us an extension of the current bullish swing on both the Daily and Weekly charts. If it does go this way, we will pull our our panzy pips trading system and begin to catch trades on the extension rally. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that our daily zone fails, we will expect to see prices retrace deeper and dip lower towards the weekly reversal zone, from where we will watch out for reversals inside that zone. The rally will be expected to begin from there, and from there drive prices all the way up towards the Weekly liquidy target. This is gonna be one hell of a rally, so y'all better be ready to cath some great deal of profit off of that rally. As usual, we will look to trade that rally applying our same trad entry systems unique to panzy pips traders. See you at the top of that cliff guys ...
Long
by PanzyPips
2
Is It Still Bearish for the EURUSDWhile on the Monthly and Weekly we see this pair in a bearish swing, on the Daily, it appears to be in a Bullish swing. We have seen prices while sustaining the bullish swing, go through a strong bearish retracement. Price has come all the way into the Daily reversal zone. At this point, we expect to see some form of reversal and for prices to begin the bullish extension towards the Daily liquidity target. Where this happens, we will look to enter on long positions, using the panzy pips trading system. In the unlikely event that prices continue to dip and the zone is breached, we will be look to see prices head for the Weekly liquidity target down below. For whatever it is worth, the more likely direction, as at now, is a bullish reversal in the current zone, followed by a rally all the way up towards the Daily liquidity target.
Long
by PanzyPips
Will GBP Drop Further? Bearish Pressure Mounts Near Key LevelThe British Pound (GBP) continues to face downside pressure near the key level of 1.3100 against the US Dollar (USD) during Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair remains under strain as the US Dollar holds firm, near a seven-week high, bolstered by strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, released last Friday. This robust US labor market performance has further supported the dollar's strength. In our previous analysis, we closed our positions on this pair (view chart below): GBP/USD Previous Forecast. Bearish Sentiment: Continuation or Reversal? Looking ahead, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain heavily on the bearish side, which adds weight to the possibility of further downside pressure. While there is no immediate position to open, we will be closely monitoring market developments. Given the fundamental outlook, our attention will turn to a potential long position if the price retraces to our identified Demand area. Until then, we remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals for a possible entry point as the market evolves. Conclusion With the US Dollar's recent strength driven by solid economic data, the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near critical levels. While the current sentiment leans bearish, we will keep a close watch on fundamental shifts and technical signals to reassess future trade opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8 We are picking up where we left off last week here on the dollar index, markets are breaking the trading zones we were expecting, but we haven't really seen anything of a correction yet, the least i would expect is to see 101.850 price see a test again. We don't have too much in the way of resistance at the moment, but we can see that price is exhausting where it is, at 102.500 price. We would expect resistance at 103, as this is an area of confluence, built up of whole number, supply and resistance.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
EUR/USD Faces Downside as Powell's Hawkish Remarks Boost USDThe EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Monday continue to support the US Dollar (USD), capping any significant upside potential for the Euro (EUR). Powell’s stance suggests that the Federal Reserve is still focused on curbing inflation, which has strengthened the USD and weighed on the major pair. At the same time, expectations for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have contributed to keeping a lid on the EUR/USD. This comes ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the flash Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The pair, as predicted last week, is currently trading within a supply area, with price action forming a double top pattern. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bullish on the Euro, while larger institutional players are more cautious, signaling potential downside risks. The flash CPI report, due later today, is expected to show that inflation in the Eurozone likely fell below the ECB’s 2% target in September. This follows a notable drop in Germany’s CPI to its lowest level since February 2021, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting in October. A softer CPI print would likely reaffirm these rate cut bets, applying further downward pressure on the Euro. However, even if the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, the market reaction could be muted. The modest strength of the USD, supported by Powell's comments and the overall hawkish stance of the Fed, suggests that EUR/USD may struggle to gain upward momentum. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside, as the technical setup points to a potential bearish continuation. In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair trading in a supply area and forming a double top, coupled with a cautious outlook from institutional traders, the risk of a bearish continuation looms large. Key economic data, including the Eurozone CPI, will be closely watched today, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favor of the USD, keeping pressure on the pair. Traders should remain alert to further downside movement, especially if the ECB rate cut expectations solidify. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
NZD/USD Bears Eye Deeper Correction Amid Positive US JOLTS ReporThe NZD/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory following the release of strong US JOLTS Job Openings data yesterday. This has intensified market speculation about the resilience of the US labor market, which could lead to further tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Kiwi dollar has come under pressure, with bears targeting a deeper correction. In our previous forecast: we highlighted the potential for a drop after NZD/USD encountered strong resistance in a key supply zone. The price has continued its downward momentum, confirming our analysis, and the Commitment of Traders (COT) report further supports a bearish continuation, with commercial hedgers reducing their long positions. The market dynamics show potential for the trend to reach our second take-profit target. Fundamental Outlook: Labor Market Signals Weigh on Kiwi The US JOLTS report, showing unexpectedly high job openings, signals strength in the labor market. This is significant because robust employment data often leads to increased expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. As the central bank looks to combat inflation while maintaining economic stability, positive labor indicators like these reinforce the likelihood of interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. On the New Zealand side, a mixed economic outlook and weakening demand for riskier assets have further pressured the NZD. With inflation in check but economic growth showing signs of stagnation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is not expected to be as aggressive as the Fed in future monetary policy moves. This policy divergence creates a favorable environment for NZD/USD bears. COT Report Signals Further Downside The COT report confirms that the institutional market is shifting towards further bearish positions in NZD/USD. Commercial traders have been reducing their long exposure, while speculators are increasingly taking short positions. This sentiment, combined with the technical rejection in the supply area, suggests that the trend is far from over. Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims Today, traders will be closely watching the release of **US Unemployment Claims** data. If the numbers come in better than expected—indicating a stronger labor market—this could further bolster the US dollar and drive NZD/USD lower. A positive surprise in the data would support the case for the Fed to maintain its current stance on interest rates, thus enhancing the bearish outlook for NZD/USD. Technical Analysis: Deeper Correction in Sight Technically, the NZD/USD remains under pressure after its rejection at the supply area. The price is trending below key moving averages, and momentum indicators show bearish divergence, suggesting that the downside momentum is still strong. A break below the recent low could open the door for further losses. In conclusion, NZD/USD bears are firmly in control, and with favorable economic data from the US, a deeper correction seems likely. Traders should keep an eye on today’s Unemployment Claims report for further clues on the pair’s direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan For Today WTI Crude Oil is testing a significant falling trend line on a daily. To short that with a confirmation, pay attention to a descending triangle pattern on an hourly time frame. Your signal will be a breakout of its horizontal neckline - an hourly candle close below 73.46. Short the market aggressively or on a retest, then. Targets: 73.07 / 72.85 Alternatively, a bullish violation of a trend line will be a strong bullish signal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure as USD Strengthens Ahead of US PCE DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced selling pressure on Friday, reversing part of the gains made in the previous session. The US Dollar (USD) found renewed strength as traders repositioned ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. This USD rebound played a significant role in dragging the EUR/USD lower, especially as the Euro approached a critical technical zone. The pair retested a supply area, forming a potential Double Top pattern a classic indicator of weakening momentum and an early sign of a bearish reversal. This technical setup suggests that the recent bullish move might be losing traction. Moreover, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily bullish on the Euro. This often signals a contrarian opportunity, as extreme retail sentiment can precede a market reversal, with institutional traders typically positioning themselves in the opposite direction. With both technical and sentiment indicators aligning, we are anticipating a retracement in the EUR/USD pair. The current USD strength, coupled with a bearish chart pattern and aggressive retail optimism, supports the likelihood of a pullback in the near term. The release of the PCE inflation data could act as a catalyst, potentially increasing market volatility and applying additional pressure on the Euro. In summary, we expect the EUR/USD to face further downside risks as the USD gains traction. The technical setup and market sentiment suggest that the pair could retrace from current levels, especially if the upcoming US inflation data favors continued USD strength. We remain cautious and are watching for opportunities to position for a retracement. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Decline, USD Gains Momentum as Strong Job DataThe US labor market continues to exhibit strength, bolstering the US dollar as recent data beats expectations. The US JOLTS Job Openings report, released on Tuesday, showed a surprising increase of 329K job openings, rising from a revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August. This unexpected surge reinforces the resilience of the US economy, providing near-term support to the US dollar. Additionally, today's ADP private sector survey reported that 143K jobs were added in September, exceeding the 120K forecast, while August's reading was revised upward from 99K to 103K. These positive labor market signals have intensified the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly against the euro. As we previously forecasted for EUR/USD, the price rejected our key Supply area and has already reached the first take-profit target. With the pair edging closer to our second target, the US dollar's strength looks set to drive EUR/USD lower, with the next potential support sitting at the 1.09500 area. Strong US Labor Data Drives Dollar Higher The JOLTS and ADP reports reflect the robustness of the US labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to maintain higher interest rates. With job openings and private sector employment both outperforming expectations, market sentiment is increasingly favoring the US dollar as investors anticipate the Fed may continue its hawkish stance. The surge in job openings suggests that demand for labor remains high, which could keep inflationary pressures elevated and justify further rate hikes or prolonged tight monetary policy. Likewise, the ADP data highlights sustained private-sector job growth, reinforcing the overall strength of the labor market and lending further support to the greenback. EUR/USD Under Pressure: Aiming for 1.09500? On the technical front, EUR/USD remains under pressure after rejecting the Supply area as anticipated in our earlier forecast. The pair has already hit the first take-profit level, and further downside appears likely if today's US Unemployment Claims report comes in better than expected. A less severe unemployment figure compared to the forecast would strengthen the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.09500 support zone. The pair has been trending lower due to a combination of strong US economic data and a weaker euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence between the Fed and the ECB has weighed heavily on the euro, and with US data continuing to outperform, the trend could persist in the near term. Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims Today, the market will focus on the release of US Unemployment Claims data, which could further influence the direction of EUR/USD. Should the report come in better than forecast, indicating a continued decline in unemployment, the dollar would likely strengthen further, pushing the pair closer to the 1.09500 mark. In conclusion, the combination of strong US labor data and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve is fueling dollar strength, pressuring EUR/USD lower. If today's unemployment claims report aligns with the recent positive trend in US employment, a continuation of the bearish momentum could drive the pair to our next target. Traders should watch the unemployment claims release for further confirmation of this downward move. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Pulls Back as USD Strengthens Ahead of Core PCE DataThe GBP/USD pair edged lower during the Asian session on Friday, retreating from the highest levels it had reached since March 2022, around the 1.3435 region, which was touched the previous day. The decline was largely driven by a technical reversal after the pair tested a key daily supply-demand zone. This move coincides with data from the latest **Commitment of Traders (COT) report**, which shows that retail traders remain strongly bullish on the GBP. Despite the bullish positioning from retailers, the pair saw a pullback as the market anticipates important economic data out of the United States, including the **Core PCE Price Index** for the month of November. A positive reading from this inflation gauge could add further support to the US Dollar (USD) and push the GBP/USD pair lower. The USD is expected to strengthen if the data signals persistent inflationary pressures, which could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about loosening monetary policy too quickly. However, expectations regarding the Bank of England (BoE) are playing a counterbalancing role. The BoE is widely seen as taking a more gradual approach to cutting rates compared to the US Federal Reserve, which could help support the British Pound (GBP) in the medium term and limit losses for the GBP/USD pair. Still, with immediate market momentum and potential upside for the USD, the pair remains under pressure in the short term. In light of these developments, we are maintaining a **short position** on GBP/USD, as the combination of technical resistance and USD strength points to further downside in the near future. While GBP sentiment remains supported by BoE policy expectations, today's price action suggests that USD demand is likely to drive the pair lower, especially with key data releases on the horizon. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1