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GBPCHF Breakout Eyes 1.1190–1.1290 as Bullish Momentum BuildsGBP/CHF has broken out of a descending wedge formation on the 4H chart, indicating a bullish shift in momentum. This move is supported by a recovering GBP, driven by better-than-expected UK GDP data and BoE easing expectations already priced in. Meanwhile, CHF is softening on safe-haven unwinding and a less aggressive SNB tone. Technicals point to a clean breakout with immediate upside targets at 1.1116 and 1.1190, with potential extension toward 1.1290. 🔍 Technical Analysis Pattern: Descending wedge breakout on the 4H chart — a bullish continuation pattern. Breakout Confirmation: Price is now trading above wedge resistance (~1.1045), showing follow-through buying. Support zone: 1.1000–1.1040 (retest area if price pulls back) Fibonacci Levels: 1.1116 → 50% Fib retracement + prior resistance 1.1190 → 61.8% Fib and historical reaction zone 1.1290 → 78.6% retracement and next key resistance 📈 Bullish Signals: EUR/GBP overlay shows inverse correlation supporting GBP strength Higher lows forming since April → structure is rising Clean breakout with space to run before major resistance hits 🌍 Fundamental Context 🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP): UK Q1 GDP: +0.6% q/q — solid beat vs expectations BoE Positioning: Rate cut expected in H2 2025, but not imminent; GBP supported in the meantime Trade Conditions: Signs of recovery, but BoE not overly dovish yet Market Tone: GBP favored short-term due to economic resilience 🇨🇭 Swiss Franc (CHF): SNB Stance: Recent tone shift toward caution amid deflation signals Safe Haven Demand: Easing due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks Macroeconomic Data: Mixed; CPI soft, and growth modest CHF Outlook: Mildly bearish unless geopolitical risk reignites 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: Breakout already underway at 1.1050 Upside Targets: 1.1116 (first TP) 1.1190 (major resistance zone) 1.1290 (extension zone) Stop Loss: Below 1.1000 (below wedge retest zone) Strategy: Buy-the-dip on pullback to 1.1040–1.1015, or hold breakout long 🧭 Conclusion GBP/CHF shows a clean bullish breakout both technically and fundamentally. With the UK economy showing near-term resilience and the SNB expected to remain cautious, GBP strength may persist in the short run. Unless geopolitical risks resurface to revive CHF demand, the pair looks poised for a rally toward 1.1190 and possibly 1.1290 in the coming sessions.
Long
by ultreosforex
1
EURUSD Bearish Structure Forming Amid Dollar UncertaintyEURUSD appears to be carving out a series of lower highs, showing potential signs of distribution. With price compressing inside a symmetrical triangle following multiple failed breakout attempts, the stage could be set for a bearish breakdown. This comes as U.S. inflation and Fed policy hold the spotlight and the euro faces political and structural crosswinds. 📉 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart) Triple Top / Head & Shoulders Variant Forming: Price action has traced a rounded top sequence, forming a triple top or complex head and shoulders structure. Each rally attempt has been followed by steeper declines and faster recoveries—typical of a topping process. Triangle Contraction Zone: Current price is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle, which is often a continuation pattern. Bearish breakout is expected if support around 1.1330–1.1320 fails. Key Bearish Targets: TP1: 1.1090 – former resistance turned support. TP2: 1.0890 – April breakout base and key structure low. Trade Setup (as per chart): Sell Entry Zone: Break and retest of 1.1320–1.1300. Stop Loss: Above 1.1527 (supply zone high). Targets: TP1: 1.1090 TP2: 1.0890 🌐 Macro Context USD Side: Fed is holding rates steady amid rising inflation fears triggered by tariffs Tariff shocks are already pushing prices up, while growth slows—a tough environment for the Fed. Dollar could strengthen if market sentiment shifts risk-off. Euro Side: Former EU Commissioner Gentiloni calls for unified borrowing to boost the euro’s global role, as U.S. stability is questioned Political uncertainty around German leadership transitions may also weigh on the euro short term. ✅ Conclusion EURUSD is trading at the apex of a tightening triangle pattern following a distribution structure. With a clean break of 1.1320 support, expect increased volatility and bearish momentum toward 1.1090 and 1.0890.
Short
by ultreosforex
42
XAUUSD NEXT MOVE Over-Reliance on Double Top Projection • The chart assumes a price move straight up to form a “double top” around 3,540–3,550 without acknowledging possible market hesitation or intervening resistance zones. • A double top pattern requires a confirmation of rejection at the same level; assuming it prematurely can be misleading. 2. Support Zone Might Not Be Strong Enough • The “Strong Support and Bullish Area” is drawn around 3,200–3,230, but the bounce shown in the chart is still not well-established. A break below this would invalidate the bullish thesis. • There is no confirmation of higher lows, which is critical for a trend reversal. 3. Overlooked Bearish Pressure • The previous high (around 3,540) led to a sharp selloff, indicating strong supply. This area could be a distribution zone rather than just resistance. • Market sentiment might still be bearish unless a higher high is confirmed. 4. Resistance Area Is Vague • The “Resistance” zone between 3,340–3,360 is too narrow and lacks confluence with indicators like moving averages or volume spikes. • A pullback from this zone is plausible, and it should be treated as a decision area, not just a step before price rallies. 5. Economic Events Are Ignored • There is an icon showing a U.S. economic event, but the chart doesn’t factor in fundamental catalysts, which could disrupt technical patterns significantly.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
USDJPY NEXT MOVE Assumption of a Bullish Continuation (Without Confirmation) • Disruption: The projected upward path to the “Double Top Resistance” presumes a bullish continuation without confirming signals (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or RSI divergence). • Alternative View: Price is currently rejecting the resistance zone and heading downward—this could be the start of a deeper retracement or trend reversal, not just a dip. ⸻ 2. “Strong Support” Zone is Based on a Single Bounce • Disruption: The “Strong Support” zone is derived from a single historical reaction. It might not hold on the next test, especially if momentum and volume increase on the way down. • Counterpoint: Stronger support typically comes from multiple prior reactions or a broader consolidation zone. ⸻ 3. Lack of Consideration for Bearish Structure • Disruption: The broader structure is bearish (from left to right on the chart), with lower highs and lower lows. The analysis skips over this longer-term downtrend context. • Alternative: Instead of anticipating a return to 148, traders might watch for short setups if price fails to break back above the resistance cleanly. ⸻ 4. Volume Decline During the Recent Rally • Disruption: The bullish leg into early May shows diminishing volume. This divergence between price increase and falling volume weakens the bullish case. • Warning Sign: Could indicate a bull trap, followed by a sharper fall through the support. ⸻ 5. Overemphasis on “Double Top” without Neckline Break • Disruption: The projected double top at ~148 assumes that level will be revisited. But without a confirmed breakout through 144.000, it’s premature to predict such a move. • Risk: Traders buying now on this expectation may be caught in a pullback that dips below the “Strong Support.”
Long
by mrsamfx81
1
EURUSD NEXT MOVE. BIG FALL SOON Overreliance on Double Top Resistance Disruption: The “Double Top Resistance” at around 1.13600 may not be reliable unless confirmed by volume or reversal patterns. It’s only touched twice and could also be part of a broader consolidation range. Counterpoint: If buyers are still showing strength near resistance (as seen in volume spikes), this might signal an eventual breakout rather than a strong rejection. 2. Support Zones Too Close Disruption: The “Support” and “Strong Support” levels are relatively close (about 30-40 pips apart). This could reduce the predictive value of the support levels, especially in a volatile market like forex Alternative: A single, broader support zone with a midpoint could provide a more flexible analysis. Downtrend Line Interpretation Disruption: The downward trendline assumes continued bearish pressure. However, the price has been forming higher lows, suggesting a possible trend shift Alternative Perspective: If price breaks above the descending trendline with strong volume, it could invalidate the bearish bias 4. Volume Ignored in Prediction Path Disruption: The prediction path in light blue doesn’t incorporate volume behavior. Without volume confirmation, price movement patterns can be misleading Improvement: Use volume at key resistance/support areas to validate breakouts or rejections 5. Lack of Fundamental Context • Disruption: The chart is entirely technical. Upcoming economic data (like ECB or Fed announcements) could drastically change market behavior, rendering technical patterns ineffective.
Long
by mrsamfx81
GOLD NEXT MOVE NEXT WEEK GOLD BIG DOWN GOLD SELL NOW 3230- LIMIT 3240=3250 FIRST TARGET 3200 NEXT TARGET 3180 LONG TARGET 3150 Counter-Analysis to the Bearish Bias 1. Volume Analysis Suggests Demand at Lows The highlighted "Strong Support" zone around 3,156 shows high buying volume—evidenced by the tall green bars on the volume histogram. This may indicate accumulation, not preparation for breakdown, contrary to the red arrows implying a strong downward continuation. 2. Oversold Market Conditions Given the repeated tests of lower support zones without major follow-through, there's a risk of bearish exhaustion. A reversal pattern (e.g., double bottom or inverse head and shoulders) could form near 3,215 or 3,187. 3. Failed Breakdown Possibility Price rebounded sharply from the support zone below 3,220, which could be interpreted as a bear trap. If price closes above the 3,248 resistance level, the market may target the 3,294 and even higher levels, invalidating the bearish roadmap. 4. Ignored Higher Timeframe Context This chart is on a 1H timeframe, but without a higher timeframe reference (e.g., 4H or Daily), the bias may be misleading. If the daily chart is bullish or consolidating, this 1H downtrend could just be a retracement. 5. No Confirmation of Breakdown Yet None of the major support levels (e.g., 3,215 or 3,187) have been broken with high volume and strong candles. Until a confirmed lower low below 3,156 is printed, this remains a range or consolidation, not a breakdown. Alternative Bullish Scenario If price holds above 3,215 and breaks 3,248 with volume, the next target could be: 3,293 (Resistance) Possibly 3,320 and above (double top region
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrsamfx81
BTCUSD Bitcoin (BTC/USD) highlights price movement between a key resistance zone and a strong support level. Price has currently pushed back into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 94,600, setting up a potential short-term reversal. The expectation shown on the chart is for price to react from the FVG/resistance area and move lower toward the support level, targeting around 92,947. Key Technical Points: - Resistance Zone: 95,500 -95,750 - FVG Area: Current price is testing imbalance at 94,600. - Support Level: Strong demand zone near92,750. - Target Projection: $92,947 Outlook: Price is likely to face selling pressure around the FVG and resistance zone, leading to a possible drop towards the support zone. Traders should monitor bearish confirmations for potential short opportunities. Would you also like me to create a short caption for posting this chart on social media?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by EXPERT117Ai
GBPUSD – Rejected at Multi-Month Resistance Amid Weak UK DataGBPUSD has clearly rejected the 1.3413–1.3443 resistance zone—a key area that previously acted as strong supply in September 2024. The pair has formed a bearish rejection candle and is now showing signs of downward momentum. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3413 – 1.3443 (major rejection zone) TP1: 1.3176 (minor structure) TP2: 1.3014 (key demand zone) TP3: 1.2890 (deeper support target) Bearish Confluences: Price rejected from major resistance Bearish candle formation Previous similar reaction from the same level Momentum indicators favor downside 📰 Fundamental Analysis: 🔻 UK Data Weakens Further: According to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI (Apr 23): Composite Output Index: 48.2 (vs 51.5 in March) – 29-month low Services PMI: 48.9 – 27-month low Manufacturing PMI: 44.0 – 20-month low This shows UK private sector activity contracting, led by a steep fall in new export orders, the worst since May 2020. 🔺 Inflation Still High: Despite falling activity, input and output prices surged, driven by National Insurance hikes and wage growth. This makes it harder for the BoE to justify a cut, despite recession signs. 📌 Conclusion: The bearish rejection at 1.3413 resistance, combined with deteriorating UK fundamentals, suggests a strong downside setup for GBPUSD. A break below 1.3176 would confirm the bearish move, targeting 1.3014 and potentially 1.2890.
Short
by ultreosforex
5
BTCUSD ChatGPT: This chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe with key price levels, trends, and targets identified. Let's break down the analysis and potential scenarios for the future price movement: Key Observations: 1. Price Action & Trend: - The price of Bitcoin has been in a downward trend, forming a descending channel (shown with blue trendlines). The price has been making lower highs and lower lows, indicating bearish market conditions. - Recently, Bitcoin tested the resistance zone around 84,067, and after multiple rejections at this level, the price has started to decline. 2. Resistance Zone: - The resistance zone is marked at 84,067, a key price point where Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections. This level represents a supply zone, and traders … ChatGPT: 4. Bearish Price Action: - The chart shows a sharp bearish drop after hitting the resistance zone, suggesting that the market is currently in a correction phase. The price has fallen from higher levels toward the support zone and is likely to experience further downside pressure. 5. Target Level: - The target for the ongoing bearish move is marked as 78,885, which lies just above the support level at 77,082. This target indicates a potential continuation of the decline towards this support level, and if this support holds, it could be a buying opportunity for a bounce. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bearish Continuation: - If the price continues its decline and breaks below 77,082, it would suggest a bearish breakout, with the next target around 78,885 or eve… ChatGPT: - If the price approaches the 77,082 support level and shows signs of rejection (such as forming a bullish engulfing candle or double bottom pattern), there could be a reversal towards the resistance level at 84,067. In this case, traders may look for a long position, targeting the resistance zone for profit-taking. 3. Consolidation and Range-Bound Behavior: - There is also a possibility that the price could start consolidating between the resistance and support levels, moving in a sideways pattern. If the price repeatedly tests these boundaries without breaking through, traders can look for range-bound trading strategies with buy orders at support and sell orders at resistance. 4. Breakout Above Resistance: - If the price breaks above the resistance zone… ChatGPT: The current chart suggests that Bitcoin is in a downtrend, facing resistance at 84,067 and heading towards the support zone at 77,082. Traders should monitor price action at this support level for potential bounces or breakdowns. If the price rebounds at 77,082, it could move back to test the resistance at 84,067. Conversely, if the price breaks below the support, further downside movement may occur with a target around 78,885 or lower. The descending channel provides a structured view of the market, and a breakout could lead to a bullish reversal or continuation of the bearish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
1
GOLDThis chart represents Gold (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe. Several key price levels and technical patterns are identified, including resistance zones, FVG (Fair Value Gaps), and target levels. Let's break down the analysis: Key Observations: 1. Price Action & Trend: - The price of Gold has been moving downward, as seen from the red trendlines marking a downtrend. The price has faced resistance around the 3,141.644 level, which has acted as a strong supply zone. Following this, Gold showed a sharp decline towards lower levels. 2. Resistance Zone: - The resistance zone is marked at 3,141.644, which corresponds to a region where the price has previously encountered selling pressure. This level seems to have rejected the price multiple times, confirming it…- The FVG gap is highlighted around the range 3,120.00 - 3,141.644. An FVG represents an area where the price imbalance occurs, typically after a sharp price movement. In many cases, the market returns to fill the gap before continuing in the direction of the initial move. The FVG zone in this chart likely indicates a potential for a price retracement or consolidation before further price action. - As the price moves downward, the FVG zone is tested, and it might act as a rejection zone if the price moves back into it, suggesting a short trade opportunity. 4. Downward Price Movement: - The sharp bearish movement observed from the resistance level at 3,141.644 shows a breakdown, confirming a trend reversal. This move pushes the price below the previous su…
TVC:GOLDLong
by EXPERT117Ai
GOLD NEXT MOVESpelling Mistakes: "SOPPRT" should be "SUPPORT." Lack of Bearish Scenario: The chart assumes an upward movement, but what happens if price fails to hold the support zones? Volume Analysis Missing: Volume is shown, but its role in confirming trends is unclear. A breakout with high volume would be more reliable. 2. Alternative Perspective Possible Fakeout: The price may not break resistance and could retrace. Stronger Rejection?: The price might struggle at the resistance zone rather than pushing through easily.
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrsamfx81
GOLD NEXT MOVE Bullish Breakout Potential: Alternative Scenario: Instead of the bearish move toward the lower targets, the price might break through the strong resistance (highlighted at the "double top" area). Trigger: A strong bullish volume surge could invalidate the resistance zone, leading to an upward breakout toward a potential new high, around 3,050–3,070. 2. Support Holding Strong: Alternative Outlook: The "Target Breakout" support level may serve as a key reversal zone, forming a higher low. If buyers defend this level aggressively, it could lead to a trend reversal back to the top of the range. Trigger: Bullish momentum around the support could push the price back toward 3,040 and invalidate the bearish arrow projection. 3. Sideways Consolidation: Alternative Setup: The price might remain range-bound between 3,020 and 3,040 for some time due to market indecision, as traders assess macroeconomic factors (e.g., inflation, central bank moves). Trigger: Lack of clear bullish or bearish momentum could lead to whipsaw action, trapping both buyers and sellers.
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrsamfx81
1
BTCUSD PUUL BACK Double Top Resistance Could Trigger a Reversal The chart assumes a breakout, but a double top is typically a bearish pattern. If price gets rejected at this resistance, it could signal a strong downtrend instead of the projected bullish move. Support Might Not Hold The analysis assumes a bounce from support, but price recently dropped aggressively to that level. If buyers fail to hold, a break below support could push price lower toward $83,200 or even $81,200. Bearish Volume Presence The recent large red candles show strong selling pressure. This could indicate that sellers are in control, and any upward move might just be a bull trap before further downside. Resistance Overhead is Strong The resistance zone around $86,400-$87,200 is a major supply zone. Even if price moves up, sellers could aggressively step in at that level, limiting upside potential.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mrsamfx81
2
all tiem high gold target 3080Double Top Resistance May Hold – The chart assumes a breakout above the double top resistance, but double tops often indicate a reversal rather than a continuation. A strong rejection from this level could lead to a bearish move instead of the projected bullish scenario. Volume Divergence – The recent price action does not seem to show strong bullish volume compared to the previous rally. If buyers are weaker at this level, a fake breakout could trap longs before reversing downward. Support Might Break Instead of Holding – The analysis assumes that the support zones will hold, but if price retests the nearest support and breaks below it, the entire bullish scenario could be invalidated. Bearish Scenario Missing – The chart focuses heavily on an upward move but lacks a strong bearish alternative. If sellers step in near resistance, a drop toward lower supports (like $3,020 or lower) becomes a valid possibility.
TVC:GOLDLong
by mrsamfx81
1
XAUUSD GOLD 3050 OR 2900?XAUUSD (Gold) - 4H Trade Setup Published: March 16, 2025 🔍 Market Structure: Price is in a strong bullish trend, currently in a short-term retracement phase after a rally. Previous resistance has now turned into potential support zone (marked yellow box). 📌 Key Zones Marked: 🟡 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG): 2950–2965 area → acting as potential bullish reaction zone. 🟦 1H Order Block (OB): 2940–2950 → deeper support in case of extended pullback. 📉 Entry Idea: Wait for price to retrace into 1H FVG zone (yellow box) or deeper into 1H OB (blue box). Look for bullish confirmation (reversal candle / engulfing / BOS) inside those zones for entry. 📈 Target Levels: TP1: 2993.410 🟥 (minor resistance) TP2: 3002.635 🟥 (previous high) 📍 Stop Loss: Below the 1H OB zone (~2938), depending on entry precision. 📐 Trade Plan Options: Option A: Buy Limit inside FVG + OB zone Option B: Wait for bullish reaction on LTF (Lower Timeframe e.g. 15m/1h) → Enter on confirmation. 📊 Risk-Reward: Estimated RR > 1:3, depending on entry accuracy. 🧠 Confirmation Tools (Optional): Fibonacci retracement confluence RSI / OBV divergence 15m BOS & CHoCH for sniper entries
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by naumanfx_