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Day 23 — Trading Only S&P Futures | +$200 & New Daily RuleWelcome to Day 23 of Trading Only S&P Futures! I locked in +200.45 on my competition account by shorting the MOB overnight and walking away once my target was hit. Later in the day, I came back to watch and ended up losing on other accounts — which sparked an important realization. From now on, I’m considering a rule: cap daily gains at 10% of account balance. For example, with a $2,000 account, my daily target should be $200 max. Anything more means overtrading, staying in the market too long, and risking unnecessary drawdowns. This might be the structure I need to keep consistent results. 📰 News Highlights U.S. JOB CUTS TOTAL 85,979 IN AUGUST, HIGHEST FOR THAT MONTH SINCE 2020 — CHALLENGER 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6470 = Remain Bullish Below 6450 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
ZEC ANALYSIS📊 #ZEC Analysis ✅There is a formation of Falling Wedge Pattern on daily chart with a breakout and currently pullback around its major support zone🧐 Pattern signals potential bullish movement incoming after sustain above the major support zone. 👀Current Price:  $40.36 🚀 Target Price:    $54.41 ⚡️What to do ? 👀Keep an eye on #ZEC price action and volume. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits⚡️⚡️ #ZEC  #Cryptocurrency  #TechnicalAnalysis  #DYOR
Long
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
Day 20 — Trading Only S&P Futures + Monthly resultsWelcome to Day 20 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today’s session was all about patience and letting levels do the work. I started with the X3DD sell signal, but the move was too fast to size in big. Instead, I waited for price to break under 6485 (yesterday’s level) and added a couple of short positions. Later, I shifted focus to the 6463 bottom support — went long there a few times and those trades worked out great. By holding discipline and repeatedly trading around these levels, I closed the day with +365.28. 📌 This video is going up a little late — I’ve also asked ChatGPT to analyze my last month of trading data to highlight win rates, patterns, and improvements. That deeper analysis is also in the video. Here's the prompt "I have trade data from the last month that I’d like you to analyze. Please perform a detailed data analysis and highlight interesting insights, such as patterns, strengths, weaknesses, and potential improvements in my trading approach. A few important notes about my strategy and data: Risk/Reward: I typically trade using a 2x risk to 1x reward setup. This gives me more flexibility to turn trades into winners and avoid stop-loss hunts. Please calculate the win rate I need to achieve to be profitable with this risk/reward ratio. Trade Grouping: My trade count may appear higher than it actually is because sometimes I enter with multiple contracts and scale out at different price levels. If you see trades with the same entry or exit prices, please group them as a single trade. Analysis Goals: Show win rate, average profit/loss, risk-adjusted return, and drawdowns. Identify what worked well and what didn’t. Highlight any tendencies or biases (e.g., time of day, entry type, asset type). Suggest improvements based on the data. Please make the analysis as practical and data-driven as possible." 📈 Key Levels for Tomorrow: Above 6480 = Flip Bullish Below 6460 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
From Strength to Weakness: ETH Validates a Key Bearish PatternIntroduction (Market Context) Ether Futures (ETH) and Micro Ether Futures (MET) have been at the center of market attention since April 2025, when prices staged a remarkable rally of more than +250%. This surge was not just a technical phenomenon—it came in the wake of major macro events such as Liberation Day and the reemergence of U.S. tariff policies under Donald Trump’s administration. Those developments sparked speculative flows into digital assets, with Ether acting as one of the prime beneficiaries of capital rotation. Yet markets rarely move in one direction forever. After such a sharp rise, technical exhaustion often follows, and signs of that exhaustion are beginning to surface on ETH’s daily chart. Traders who enjoyed the rally now face a critical juncture: whether to protect gains or to consider new opportunities in the opposite direction. The key lies in a pattern that has appeared many times in history, often marking important reversals—the Rising Wedge. What is a Rising Wedge? A Rising Wedge is one of the most recognizable bearish reversal formations in technical analysis. It typically develops after a strong uptrend, where price continues to push higher but does so with diminishing momentum. On the chart, the highs and lows still point upward, but the slope of the highs is shallower than the slope of the lows, creating a narrowing upward channel. The psychology behind the wedge is critical: buyers are still in control, but they are running out of strength with every push higher. Sellers begin to absorb demand more aggressively, and eventually, price breaks through the lower boundary of the wedge. This breakdown often accelerates as trapped buyers unwind positions. From a measurement perspective, technicians project the maximum width of the wedge at its start, and then apply that distance downward from the point of breakdown. This projection offers a technical target for where price may gravitate in the following weeks. In the case of Ether Futures, that target points toward the 3,200 area, a level of strong technical interest and a logical area for traders to watch closely. RSI and Bearish Divergence Alongside the wedge, momentum indicators add further weight to the bearish case. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Values above 70 are generally interpreted as “overbought,” while values below 30 suggest “oversold.” The most powerful signals often emerge not when RSI is at an extreme, but when it diverges from price action. A bearish divergence occurs when price sets higher highs while RSI forms lower highs. This is an indication that upward momentum is weakening even as price appears to climb. Ether Futures have displayed this phenomenon clearly over the past few weeks. The daily chart shows four successive higher highs in price, yet RSI failed to confirm these moves, instead tracing a series of lower peaks. Notably, RSI pierced the overbought zone above 70 twice during this period, but momentum faded quickly after each attempt. This divergence is a classic early warning sign that a bullish run is running out of steam. Forward-Looking Trade Idea With the Rising Wedge breakdown and RSI divergence in place, a structured trade plan emerges. Futures traders can express this view through either the standard Ether Futures contract (ETH) or its smaller counterpart, the Micro Ether Futures contract (MET). Contract Specs & Margins Ether Futures (ETH): Notional = 50 Ether, Tick size = 0.50, Tick value = $25.00, Initial margin ≈ $68,800 (subject to CME updates). Micro Ether Futures (MET): Notional = 0.1 Ether, Tick size = 0.50, Tick value = $0.05, Initial margin ≈ $140 (subject to CME updates). Trade Plan (Bearish Setup) Direction: Short Entry: 4,360 Target: 3,200 Stop Loss: 4,702 (coinciding with a minor resistance level) Reward-to-Risk Ratio: ≈ 3.39 : 1 The projected wedge target around 3,200 is not only a measured move from the pattern but also sits close to a previously established UFO support zone. While anecdotal, this confluence reinforces the credibility of the level as a potential magnet for price. Risk Management Regardless of how compelling a technical setup may appear, the most decisive factor in trading remains risk management. Defining risk in advance ensures that losses are limited if the market behaves unexpectedly. In this case, placing the stop at 4,702 not only keeps risk under control but also aligns with a minor resistance level, making the trade plan technically coherent. Position sizing also plays a crucial role. The availability of Micro Ether Futures (MET) allows traders to participate with significantly reduced capital requirements compared to the full-sized ETH contract. This flexibility makes it easier to fine-tune exposure and manage account risk more precisely. Equally important is the discipline of adhering to precise entries and exits. Chasing a trade or ignoring pre-defined stop levels can erode the edge provided by technical analysis. Markets often deliver multiple opportunities, but without sound risk management, traders may not survive long enough to benefit from them. Ultimately, capital preservation is the foundation on which consistent performance is built. Closing Ether’s spectacular rally since April 2025 is a reminder of the asset’s ability to deliver explosive moves under the right conditions. Yet history shows that parabolic advances rarely continue uninterrupted. The combination of a Rising Wedge breakdown and a confirmed RSI divergence provides strong evidence that the current uptrend is losing momentum, and the market may be entering a corrective phase. For traders, this is less about predicting the future and more about recognizing when probabilities align in favor of a defined setup. With clear entry, target, and stop levels, the ETH and MET contracts offer a structured opportunity for those willing to take a bearish stance while managing their risk appropriately. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:ETH1!Education
by traddictiv
BoJ firmness and Fed pivot set stage for yen recoveryThe Japanese yen is currently trading in a strategically important zone. It remains historically weak but is closely monitored by Japanese authorities as USD/JPY hovers just below the symbolic 150 level. For swing traders, the challenge is to determine whether the currency can mount a lasting rebound, as fundamentals and sentiment have become less one-sided than in recent years. Fundamental analysis The yen’s path remains primarily shaped by monetary policy divergence. In the U.S., recent data point to slowing momentum: the latest jobs report revealed weaker hiring and downward revisions, while inflation signals remain mixed. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed at Jackson Hole that the central bank is preparing to lower interest rates in September, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut (probability > 85% according to CME FedWatch Tool). Japan presents a contrasting stance. The Bank of Japan has adopted a firmer tone than in the past decade. Governor Kazuo Ueda stresses the importance of wages and employment in sustaining inflation, suggesting that another hike could occur before year-end. With Tokyo CPI still above the central bank target, the BoJ’s hawkish bias is becoming more credible. This change narrows the policy gap with the U.S. The yen’s traditional role as a funding currency is also under pressure. Narrowing rate differentials and a less accommodative BoJ reduce the appeal of the carry trade. More importantly, the threat of intervention lingers. In 2022, Tokyo intervened when USD/JPY crossed 150. With spot near 148, a break of that threshold could once again invite official action. This risk serves as both a psychological and practical ceiling for dollar strength against the yen. Taken together, fundamentals are no longer uniformly bearish. Technical analysis On the J6U5 daily chart, the broader trend remains bearish for the yen, but since early August the contract has shifted into consolidation. The volume profile highlights a value area concentrated between 0.00678 and 0.00680, confirming this range as the market’s equilibrium. Below 0.00676, liquidity is thin, leaving the market vulnerable to a swift drop toward 0.00670 if support gives way. Conversely, a sustained break above 0.00684 would validate renewed yen strength, with an upside projection toward 0.00690. Resistance lies clearly between 0.00683 and 0.00685, zones of congestion that make gains difficult without a trigger. This structure offers swing traders clear markers and the narrow corridor suggests that the next breakout could be meaningful. Market sentiment Retail positioning data shows a clear consensus against the yen, with a majority of individual traders long USD/JPY (therefore short yen). This consensus is exposed to a squeeze, particularly since most of these long USD/JPY positions are losing money, weakening traders and increasing the risk of forced unwinds. According to the CFTC COT report, asset managers are on the opposite side, tending to be net buyers of yen. CME and OTC options Options data underline the gravity of 0.00680. On CME, open interest is concentrated at this strike, with additional clusters between 0.00675–0.00677 and 0.00683–0.00685. This reinforces the current corridor structure. The spot market provides similar signals. Large expiries are clustered between 147.50 and 148.00 USD/JPY, amounting to nearly 3.3 billion dollars in contracts this week. These expiries act as magnets for spot price action and serve as a cap on near-term upside. Until they roll off, traders should expect range-bound behavior around current levels. Trade idea In this context, a swing strategy favoring yen strength is justified. The plan would be to buy J6U5 on dips: half the position near 0.00680 and the other half closer to 0.00670 if retested. Invalidation comes on a daily close below 0.00666, which would negate the bullish scenario and reopen the path toward further yen weakness. On the upside, the first objective is 0.00683–0.00684, the upper bound of the current range. With a catalyst such as dovish Fed guidance, hawkish BoJ comments, or verbal intervention from Tokyo, the move could extend toward 0.00690. The setup provides a clear risk/reward structure: limited downside defined by support, while upside benefits from the vulnerability of consensus short positions. Final thoughts The J6U5 contract sits at a delicate equilibrium. Fundamentals are slowly turning less unfavorable to the yen as the Fed prepares to ease, the BoJ strikes a firmer tone, and intervention risk limits dollar upside. Technically, the contract trades in a well-defined range, with 0.00680 as pivot. Sentiment shows retail consensus against the yen, while institutional positioning and options data point to potential cracks in that view. Combining these factors, a swing-long yen strategy on dips is justified. The base case is for a rebound toward 0.00684 and possibly 0.00690 if catalysts materialize. The potential for recovery is real, though discipline is essential: the broader bearish trend will not be reversed until resistance levels are broken. For swing traders, the opportunity lies in anticipating this tactical rebound, positioning ahead of a possible market rebalancing in favor of the yen. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6JU2025Long
by satelysfx
Day 18 — Trading Only S&P Futures | NVDA Miss, Market DropsWelcome to Day 18 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today started with heavy sell signals — we had X10 chip stock sell signals and NVDA X7 sell signal right at the open. I leaned short early but got stopped out around 10:20 as the market squeezed higher. Instead of chasing longs into bullish structure, I waited for a cleaner level. When price tapped 6495 max resistance (gamma wall), I reloaded shorts. That patience paid off, and by the EU close I was sitting on +416.75 for the day. The key lesson here? Even when structure flips bullish, respecting higher-level resistance zones can deliver high-reward trades. 📰 News Highlights NVIDIA STOCK FALLS 3% AFTER DATA-CENTER SALES MISS FORECASTS, LACKLUSTER GUIDANCE 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6445 = Remain Bullish Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
Day 17 — Trading Only S&P Futures | A+ Setup, Done by 10AMWelcome to Day 17 of Trading Only S&P Futures! Today was all about conviction. I spotted a rare A+ setup: X7 ES buy signals, bullish market structure, and a buy right at MOB support. That kind of alignment doesn’t happen often — so I sized up 3x my usual and went long. The trade worked perfectly, and I wrapped up the day by 10AM with +295.37, making this the fastest finish to a session I’ve ever had in this challenge. 📰 News Highlights STOCKS CLOSE HIGHER, VIX DIPS AS NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA EARNINGS LOOM 🔑 Key Levels for Tomorrow Above 6450 = Remain Bullish Below 6435 = Flip Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
5
ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 # 🚀 ES Futures LONG Setup | 6462 → 6556 🎯 (1:2 R\:R) ### 📝 Market Bias * **Conditional Bullish** into US open. * Higher-timeframe trend strong (price > 10/20/50/200 SMAs). * **BUT** intraday momentum still mixed (MACD bearish) + thin overnight liquidity. 👉 **Trade ONLY if liquidity & momentum confirm at open.** --- ### 🎯 Trade Idea **Setup:** Conditional LONG (market open only) * 📍 **Entry:** 6462.25 (acceptable range 6455 – 6475) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6415.15 (0.75 × ATR = 47.10 pts) * 💰 **Take Profit:** 6556.45 (2 × stop = 94.20 pts) * ⚖️ **Risk/Reward:** 1 : 2 * 💪 **Confidence:** 60% **Risk/Reward per Contract:** * ❌ Risk = \$2,355 * ✅ Reward = \$4,710 --- ### 📊 Position Sizing * Formula: `contracts = floor((account_size × risk%) / (stop_pts × $50))` * Example: * \$100k acct @ 2% risk → 0 contracts (use micro/mini). * \$200k acct → 1 contract. * \$250k acct → 2 contracts. --- ### 📈 Scale & Exits * Take **50% profit @ 6509.35** (1× stop). * Hold rest to **6556.45 TP**. * Move stop to breakeven after scaling. --- ### ⚠️ Key Risks * Very thin overnight liquidity → slippage risk. * MACD still bearish; must improve at open. * Price near 20-day highs → upside limited. * Event/headline risk at open. --- ### ✅ Pre-Conditions (MUST at Open) * Strong liquidity/volume vs overnight. * Price holds above SMA10 & SMA20. * Preferable: MACD histogram improves in 15–30 mins. ❌ If conditions fail → NO TRADE. --- ### 📌 Trade JSON (For Algo/Notes) ```json { "instrument": "ES", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 6462.25, "stop_loss": 6415.15, "take_profit": 6556.45, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.60, "entry_timing": "market_open", "point_value": 50, "signal_publish_time": "2025-08-25 15:47:27" } ``` --- ### 🔖 Hashtags \#ES #SP500 #FuturesTrading #OptionsTrading #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TradeSetup #MarketOpen #RiskReward #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #StockMarket #TradingSignals #ScalpSetup
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
How to Trade Morning Star and Evening Star Candlestick Patterns Learn to identify and trade Morning Star and Evening Star candlestick formations using TradingView’s charting tools in this detailed tutorial from Optimus Futures. Morning and Evening Stars are powerful reversal patterns that often mark turning points in the market. Recognizing them can help you anticipate when momentum is about to shift—and take advantage of new trading opportunities. What You’ll Learn: • How Morning Stars signal bullish reversals at the end of a downtrend • How Evening Stars indicate bearish reversals after extended uptrends • The three-candle structure of each pattern and what it means for trader psychology • Why indecision candles (like dojis) play a critical role in confirming momentum shifts • Using volume confirmation to validate Morning and Evening Star setups • The importance of context: spotting these patterns at major support and resistance levels • Setting effective stop losses at the high/low of the pattern for risk control • Advanced entry tactic: waiting for retracement after confirmation to optimize risk/reward This tutorial may help futures traders and technical analysts who want to harness candlestick reversal signals to identify potential market turning points. The strategies covered could assist you in creating structured setups when strong buying or selling pressure appears at key chart levels. Learn more about futures trading with TradingView: optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objective
COMEX:GC1!Education
by OptimusFutures
Can Yen Futures Push Higher? Inverted H&S Breakout in Focus1. Introduction Japanese Yen Futures (6J) and Micro Yen Futures (MJY) are showing a promising technical setup that traders are watching closely. On the daily chart, an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern has formed, suggesting a potential reversal from recent weakness. The neckline lies around 0.006850, and if prices sustain a breakout above this level, the upside projection aligns neatly with a UFO resistance zone near 0.007100. Adding weight to this bullish case, the MACD histogram is diverging positively, with higher lows forming while price action recorded lower lows. This bullish divergence suggests underlying momentum could support the completion of the pattern and drive Yen Futures higher in the sessions ahead. 2. Understanding the Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern The inverted Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a widely recognized reversal formation that often signals the end of a bearish trend. It is composed of three troughs: the left shoulder, the head (the deepest low), and the right shoulder, which is typically shallower. The neckline acts as the key breakout level, and once broken, the projected price target is measured from the head to the neckline, then projected upward. In the case of Japanese Yen Futures, the neckline sits around 0.006850. A confirmed break above this price would validate the pattern, projecting a target toward 0.007100. 3. The Role of MACD Divergence Momentum indicators could provide early clues about the strength of a potential breakout. In this case, the MACD histogram is showing bullish divergence—price made lower lows, while the histogram made higher lows. This divergence signals that selling pressure may be weakening, even as price was still falling. Such conditions could potentially precede significant reversals, and when they align with a clear price pattern like the inverted Head & Shoulders, the probability of follow-through may increase. Traders monitoring this confluence will be looking at the neckline breakout above 0.006850 as the technical trigger that confirms it. 4. Contract Specs: Yen Futures vs. Micro Yen Futures Understanding contract specifications helps traders size positions correctly and manage risk efficiently. o Japanese Yen Futures (6J) Contract Unit: ¥12,500,000 Minimum Tick: 0.0000005 per JPY = $6.25 per contract Initial Margin (approximate, subject to change): ~$3,100 Popular with institutional traders due to larger notional exposure. o Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) Contract Unit: ¥1,250,000 (1/10th of standard 6J contract) Minimum Tick: 0.000001 per JPY = $1.25 per contract Initial Margin (approximate, subject to change): ~$310 Provides accessibility for retail traders and allows more granular risk management. Both contracts track the same underlying, but the Micro contract offers flexibility for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to fine-tune position sizes. 5. Trade Plan & Stop Loss Options With the inverted Head & Shoulders pattern taking shape, the trade bias turns long above the neckline breakout at 0.006850. The upside objective aligns with the resistance around 0.007100, providing a clearly defined target. Two possible stop-loss placements can be considered: o Below the Right Shoulder Provides a valid protection but may offer a weaker Reward-to-Risk (R:R) ratio depending on the right shoulder height. Useful for conservative traders looking to minimize drawdowns. o Mathematically Below the Neckline Positioned far enough to allow for retests of the neckline while aiming for a 3:1 R:R ratio. Provides a balance between protection and potential profitability. This approach ensures flexibility, letting traders choose between tighter risk control or a more favorable reward profile. 6. Risk Management Considerations No pattern or indicator guarantees success, making risk management the cornerstone of any futures strategy. A few key principles stand out: Always use a stop loss: Prevents small losses from escalating into significant drawdowns. Avoid undefined risk exposure: Futures are leveraged products; unprotected trades can lead to large, rapid losses. Precision in entries and exits: Reduces emotional decision-making and improves consistency. Position sizing matters: Adjusting the number of contracts ensures risk stays proportional to account size. Diversification and hedging: Yen futures can be used as a hedge against equity or bond market volatility, but should not necessarily replace broader risk controls. In this context, choosing the stop-loss level carefully and sticking to the pre-defined trade plan is more important than the pattern itself. 7. Conclusion & Forward View Japanese Yen Futures (6J) and Micro JPY/USD Futures (MJY) are at a critical juncture. The inverted Head & Shoulders on the daily chart, supported by a bullish MACD divergence, highlights a potential reversal in progress. A breakout above the neckline at 0.006850 opens the door for an advance toward the 0.007100 UFO resistance zone. While the setup looks constructive, it is crucial to recognize that even strong patterns can fail. This is why risk management—through proper stop-loss placement and careful position sizing—remains the most important aspect of any trading plan. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6J1!Education
by traddictiv
US30 LongUS30: New ATH Prints – Waiting for Weekly Candle Retracement The US30 has surged to fresh all-time highs (ATH), closing last week with a strong bullish weekly momentum candle. This kind of aggressive move often sees follow-through, but smart money typically waits for a retracement to optimize entries. Plan & Levels: The area around $45,300 stands out as a potential buying zone, aligning with expected dollar weakness and a key Fibonacci retracement level of the prior weekly push. Traders will watch for price to pull back toward this zone and confirm entries using lower timeframe candlestick patterns and confluence with Fibonacci support. Technical Context: Momentum remains firmly bullish, with higher highs and strong breadth across industrial and tech components supporting the rally. A controlled retracement would provide fresh liquidity for continuation and could set the stage for another leg higher toward new records. Trading Plan: Wait for a retracement toward $45,300 to build a long position. Validate entries using Fibonacci levels and bullish reversal candles on 4H or lower charts. Maintain disciplined risk management, as overextended markets can show sharp pullbacks before continuation.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by IndependentTradingUniversity
How Beginners Should Start Trading Futures (Step by Step)### Why Trade Futures? ### 1. **One Market to Master** - With stocks, you’ve got **thousands of tickers** to scan every day. - With options, you add complexity: strike prices, expirations, Greeks. - With futures, you can focus on **just one instrument**—like the S&P 500 (ES/MES)—and trade it daily. 👉 This eliminates overwhelm and accelerates mastery. --- ### 2. **Golden Age of Prop Firm Funding** - Right now, prop firms are everywhere, offering retail traders a chance to trade with firm capital. - For **$200–$500 evaluation cost**, you can get access to **$25K–$250K funded accounts**. - That means a **$2,000–$2,500 effective credit line** to trade without risking your own savings. - If you’re consistent, you can withdraw profits—keeping up to 90% depending on the firm. 👉 This makes the risk-to-reward of getting funded in futures unmatched compared to stocks or options. --- ### 3. **Simplified Leverage (Without Options Greeks)** - Futures give you leverage, but without the **Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega headache**. - Every point in MES = $5. Every point in ES = $50. That’s it. Clear, transparent, easy to calculate. - You know your risk and reward instantly—no need to fight with implied volatility or time decay. --- ### 4. **No PDT Rule, No Time Decay** - Stocks: if you have less than $25K, you’re handcuffed by PDT rules. - Options: even if you’re right, you can still lose because of **theta decay**. - Futures: no PDT rule, no theta burn. You can take as many trades as you want, and your position value won’t decay over time. --- ### 5. **Low Capital to Start** - Stocks often require large amounts of cash to move the needle. - Options can be cheaper per contract, but carry hidden risks. - Futures let you start with as little as **$2K** and realistically scale to $10K+ in months with discipline. 👉 Combine that with prop funding, and you’re essentially trading institution-sized accounts with minimal upfront cost. --- ### 🔑 The Big Picture Trading futures gives you: - **Focus** (one ticker, one system). - **Leverage** without complexity. - **Funding opportunities** that minimize personal risk. - **Flexibility** (24/5 market access, no PDT, no decay). That’s why many traders see this moment as the **“golden age” of retail futures trading**—you can start small, get funded quickly, and scale without needing Wall Street connections or a huge account. --- ### Step 1: Pick the Right Instrument Start small and scale up: - **/MES (Micro E-Mini S&P 500):** - Best for beginners. - Each point = $5. - 10 MES = 1 ES. - **/ES (E-Mini S&P 500):** - Larger contract, each point = $50. - Best for experienced traders or bigger accounts. - **Other contracts:** NQ, YM, RTY, Gold, etc. (but start with MES to master one market). --- ### Step 2: How Much Risk to Take - **Rule of thumb:** Risk **<10% of your account per trade.** - Example: $2,000 account → risk $200 or less - Example: $50,000 prop firm account = $2,000 or $2500 accounts because that’s your drawdown limits. - **Daily max loss rule:** If you lose 3 trades in a day, step away. Protect your capital. ($600) - Futures move fast—so use **bracket orders** (stop loss + profit target set together). --- ### Step 3: When to Trade Most volume & volatility happens during these times (EST): - 🟢 **U.S. session:** 9:30 AM – 12 PM (best for beginners). - 🌍 Asia: 9:30 PM & 4 AM. - 🇪🇺 Europe: 3 AM & 11:30 AM. Stick to U.S. morning hours first—cleanest moves, best liquidity. --- ### Step 4: Use a System, Not Guesswork At DIYWallSt, we trade with **VX Algo**, a system built to keep things simple: - ✅ Market Structure (Bullish/Bearish flips). - ✅ RSI signals (oversold/overbought). - ✅ Super MACD (color-coded trend confirmation). - ✅ Moving Averages (dynamic support & resistance). Beginners should only enter when at least **2 signals confirm** the setup. --- ### Step 5: Getting Started Without Big Risk Don’t want to risk your own money yet? Use a **Prop Firm Account**: - **Apex Trader Funding:** Flexible, easy to start, bracket orders built in. - **Topstep:** Consistency rules, great training ground. - Pass an evaluation, trade with their money, and keep up to 90% of profits. --- ### Step 6: Tools You’ll Need - **Brokerage:** Tradovate (beginner-friendly) or IBKR (advanced/global). - **Charting:** TradingView + VX Algo indicators. - **Journal:** Track every trade—P/L, emotions, signals, lessons learned. --- ### Quick Risk Examples - **/MES moves 10 points = $50 gain/loss.** - **/ES moves 10 points = $500 gain/loss.** - That’s why beginners start with MES—it gives room to learn without blowing up. --- ### Final Words Trading futures can change your life—but only if you treat it like a business. - Start small (MES). - Risk less than 1% per trade. - Trade only when your system gives you signals. - Journal everything. 👉 Stick with it, and you’ll avoid the mistakes that wipe out 80% of new traders.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by DiYWALLST
$ES Futures: Bearish Breakdown Ahead? Short Setup Inside ## 🔻 ES Futures Bearish Setup: Shorting into Weakness (Aug 21, 2025) 🔻 ### 🏦 Market Outlook * 📉 **Bias:** Bearish sentiment dominates * 🔎 **Tech drag** + weak momentum = downside risk * ⚠️ Key support in focus: 6296–6298 zone --- ### 📊 Trade Idea (SHORT) * 🎯 **Instrument:** ES Futures * 📉 **Direction:** SHORT * 💰 **Entry:** 6369.75 (near market) * 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6390.00 * 🎯 **Target:** 6300.00 * 📊 **Size:** 1 contract (\$50/pt) * 💪 **Confidence:** 65% * ⏰ **Timing:** Market Open --- ### ⚠️ Risk Watch * 🌀 Low volume may cause chop * 📉 Bounce risk near 6296–6298 * 🌍 Macro catalysts could shift flows --- 🔥 Hashtags for Reach 🔥 \#ESFutures #SP500 #FuturesTrading #DayTrading #SwingTrading #SPX #MarketOutlook #BearishSetup
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by quantsignals
ES 08/21 — Key Levels - Short Bias - Setups - Fundamental Setups (A++ first) 1) SHORT — Retest-and-fail of supply (preferred) • Zones: 6,433–36 or 6,445–47 (upper band 6,469–71). • Trigger: 5-minute bearish close back below the shelf (no retest required); size to full only if a 15-minute bearish prints within the next 3×5m bars. • Risk: entry +6–8 pts. • TPs: +15 / +27 / +42 pts from entry (e.g., 6,445 → 6,430 / 6,418 / 6,403). • Continuation guard: within 2×5m price must extend the low or print a lower high while failing to reclaim the shelf; otherwise cut ½ or scratch to BE. 2) SHORT — Breakdown & acceptance • Trigger: 5m close < 6,418 and no immediate reclaim next bar. • Risk: entry +6–8 pts. • TPs: toward 6,406 → 6,392 → 6,382–76. 3) LONG — Only if promoted • Trigger: 5m close & hold ≥ 6,436 (offers pull/flip; next bar holds). • Risk: 6–8 pts (around 6,430). • TPs: 6,451 → 6,459–60 → 6,471–72. • Stand-down: lose 6,436 on a 5m close or see offers reload overhead. Execution windows: 9:45–10:45 ET and 13:50–15:30 ET; avoid new risk 11:30–13:30 without momentum/confirmation. Key levels (from HTF → LTF) • Pivot / line-in-sand: 6,463 (short bias while ≤ this). • Supply / sell zones: 6,433–36, 6,445–47, 6,469–71 (cap), 6,476. • Supports / magnets: 6,419–18, 6,406–03, 6,392–88, 6,382–76, 6,370, 6,357–52. Fundamentals — Thu, Aug 21, 2025 (ET) • 08:30 — Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (DOL). Weekly claims are published Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET.  • 08:30 — Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Next release Aug 21, 8:30 a.m. ET.  • 10:00 — Existing Home Sales (July, NAR). NAR schedules the Jul report for Thu, Aug 21 at 10:00 a.m. ET.  • 10:00 — Conference Board LEI (July). Thu, Aug 21, 10:00 a.m. ET.   • 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage. Standard release Thursdays 10:30 a.m. ET; next release Aug 21.   • S&P Global Flash US PMI (Aug). Scheduled for Thursday (check S&P calendar; release times shown in UTC on their site).  • Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium begins (Aug 21–23). 2025 theme: “Labor Markets in Transition.”  How I’ll adapt intraday • A stronger-than-expected Claims/PMI/Philly Fed that lifts yields and the USD into 6,433–36 / 6,445–47 favors setup #1 (fade the pop). • EHS/LEI at 10:00 can whipsaw a breakdown—prefer acceptance before pressing setup #2. • If Jackson Hole headlines skew risk-on and we accept ≥ 6,436, switch to setup #3 toward 6,451/60/71–72.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
ES Futures Trade Setup – Long Opportunity 🎯 **ES Futures Trade Setup – Long Opportunity** 📌 **Instrument:** ES 📈 **Direction:** LONG 💰 **Entry Price:** 6415.50 🛑 **Stop Loss:** 6353.98 (1 ATR below entry) 🏹 **Take Profit:** 6480.00 (\~64.5 points) 📏 **Position Size:** 3 contracts 💪 **Confidence:** 65% ⏰ **Timing:** Enter at market open ⚠️ **Key Risks:** Mixed short-term signals may cause volatility. Move below 6400 could invalidate trade. ✅ **Rationale:** Long-term bullish trend remains intact; favorable risk-reward despite short-term bearish momentum.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals