GBPAUD – Resistance Holding, Downside FavoredGBPAUD is rejecting the 2.0969 resistance zone, a key level where price has previously reversed. The current rejection candle at this zone suggests that bulls are struggling to sustain momentum.
The pair has been forming lower highs since April, and the recent rally into resistance looks corrective. If the pair breaks below 2.0750, expect a drop toward:
2.0481 – key demand zone and last swing low
2.0324 – final bearish target (range low)
🔻 Short bias valid below 2.0969
🔺 Invalidation if price closes above 2.10
Fundamental Overview:
🔻 GBP Pressures:
Despite hot inflation data, the Bank of England remains cautious, with no strong push for more hikes.
UK economic outlook is mixed; services holding up but manufacturing and consumer spending showing cracks.
Political uncertainty and EU trade rhetoric remain overhangs.
🟢 AUD Supportive Factors:
The RBA remains data-dependent but firm on not rushing into cuts.
Iron ore and commodity demand remain stable, supporting AUD.
Risk appetite and global recovery outlook help AUD hold strength.
Summary:
Bias: Bearish below 2.0969
Trigger: Rejection from resistance confirmed
Targets: 2.0481 → 2.0324
Fundamentals: Favor AUD with stronger commodity backdrop and less uncertainty than UK
