Short - Dax - long term Sept. with an expanded bottomI am staying bearish. Technicals might need a recalibration under current market conditions.
I do not see the Dax flying to the moon soon, especially when the ripple effect of supply chain management across the world becomes a bigger issue and might get some stops and holds on their output - export of the automotive sector.
Deutsche bank is not in the clear yet, and the chance they default or need to pull a Lehman seems more of a direction. I have no reason to be optimistic when the theoratical cycle seems to indicate a recession. I aimed for recession 2022, but it might get a much faster pace.
Ger30short
DAX30 - Indices Trading | Elliott Wave Structures | Q2 2019*Please support this idea with a LIKE if it helps you. Thanks!
More details about me in my signature.
DAX30 - Elliott Wave Outlook
Bearish Swings - Patterns:
Triple Three structure in Super-Cycle Wave (IV) (green)
W (purple) - Expanding Flat
X (purple) - Three (false break-out)
Y (purple) - Complex Flat with a Descending Triangle
X (purple) - Running Flat
Z (purple) - Zig-Zag
Bullish Swings - Patterns:
Impulse in Intermediate (1) (blue)
Leading Diagonal
Next expected swing:
Bearish sequence in Intermediate (2) (blue)
Structure change:
Bullish continuation in an impulsive manner could lead towards more up-side for in a big extension.
Clear Sell option in Ger 30, Target 11.800-11.600We can see a clear sell option in Ger 30,why?
RSI on most time frames in hell.
Bad economy data from Germany an EU.
Open Interest rate May 2019 is at 11.500.
We see first spikes of panik buys.
-> We have US Index rise from 22% + since x-mas 2018.
This will explode :D first we correct :D
Good luck.
GER30 (GRXEUR) - Bearish Scenario - Bear Correction Not Over*If you like this idea, please support it with a like or share. Thank you.
EU Indices crashed during the second part of 2018 and these bearish sequences were successfully tracked with the analysis in the related ideas .
2019 started with a bang!During the first quarter It was unclear if stock markets worldwide indeed were to recover like that. I have to admit, I did not trust the "thrust" that much.
CAC40 & GER30 are showing clearer signs of a five-wave bullish sequence completing, thus paving the way for bearish swings.
These bearish swings should occur anyway, regardless if it's a corrective Intermediate (2) degree or another bearish impulse for the knock-out.
Should the next move be on the down-side, then it would be closely watched, because its sequence will give clear signs on the real direction of the Market.
Elliott Wave Analysis - EU Indices
Scenario 1 - Bull Market Returning
In this scenario, the current five-wave sequence would reflect the 1st leg of a larger degree bullish impulse, which would last a while and would allow the "complacency" sentiment to return and prevail over the next cycle.
Intermediate (2) would wipe out 50-61.8% of the entire gains these indices have shown until now, after which the Market should go bullish once more and in a "rampage".
Scenario 2 - Bear Correction Not Over
On a larger degree, GER30 (GRXEUR / DAX30) has a possibility of crashing for good but there are no realistic signs of that just yet.If the next bearish swing would show and impulsive sequence, then this scenario could be followed up.
Summary
EU Indices could be turning bearish, as the current wave counts are indicating bearish sequences ahead.
P.S. See related Ideas below.