A Gold/GLD Drop Scenario You Should Not IgnoreSometimes you don't need a ton of information.
Sometimes, it's just the right moment when a few facts come together, and you make up your mind.
That's the case now with Gold for me.
We know that the behavior changed when Gold left the Fork in July.
We also know that if price leaves a Fork, it's highly possible we’ll see a test/re-test at the L-MLH, the lower median line parallel.
Additionally, Allan H. Andrews, the inventor of the Median Lines/Forks, wrote back then that price could also crawl along the parallel line for a longer period. And if price can't manage to jump back into the Fork—regaining the trajectory of the slope—it will trade in the opposite direction sooner or later.
Last but not least: I checked GLD too. Surprisingly it reached the Centerline just yesterday (See screenshot in the right lower corner of the Chart). So price has a high tendency to turn in the opposite direction when balanced again.
So, there you have it.
I’m planning a short, with profits at the WL as my first target.
But what if it goes wrong, if price climbs higher?
Well, then I’ll probably get stopped out, which is nothing more than part of this business.
Any questions?
Don't hesitate to ask me. It's the only way humans learn—by asking questions.
Cheers
§8-)
Gldshort
GLD – Why Gold Is a Clear Short to MePrice moved from the Lower Median Line (L-MLH) up to the Centerline, fulfilling the 80% rule.
Then we had two Hagopians, which sent price right back to the Centerline.
After the breakout above the Centerline, the next target was the Upper Median Line Parallel (U-MLH), which was reached rather quickly.
Finally, price broke above the U-MLH and was pulled up toward the Warning Line (WL).
Is this the end of the happy story?
I think so—because Gold has now reached its 2nd standard deviation, and there’s probably no more gas left in the tank.
The Trade:
- A logical target is the U-MLH.
- A secondary target is the Centerline.
At the very least, if you're long, this might be a good time to take some profits—because no tree grows to the moon.
For further details, I will follow-up with a Video explanation - See my Signature.
Shorting $GLD here looks like a good tradeEveryone has been bullish gold here, but the idea never made sense to me. We're still in the beginning of a market downturn, and if S&P and QQQ go down, gold is going to go down too.
Now the chart is also confirming my thoughts. We just went up and retested previous support as resistance and now we look to be forming a lower high on lower timeframes.
This looks like a great spot to short the pet rock.
Idea would be to go short here and buy as we get closer to the orange and green supports.
GLD: Hit the Brakes ✋🛑Almost there! GLD should slam on the brakes and wrap up the blue wave (i). After completion, we expect the course to dip into the blue target zone between $162.26 and $155.58 to fulfill the corrective low of the blue wave (ii). Once achieved, the GLD is good to go and should rise back North.
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #4- GLD - Put Debit SpreadTicker: GLD
Position:
- 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread
- Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65
- Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04
- Net cost/ spread = $1.61
- Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes)
Net cost = $805
Profit target/ break even/ exit:
- Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width of the spread = $1.61 - $2.00 = $0.39 (24% of cost of spread)
- If GLD remains under the short leg of the spread ($148) by expiry (21st Feb 2020) then the spread will have achieved maximum profit
- Break even for the spread at expiry is the long strike minus the cost of the spread ($150 - $1.61) = $148.39 (white line)
- Exit if GLD closes just above the break even point ($149/ Purple line)
- Can also exit the spread earlier if 80% of maximum profit is realized = 0.39 (max profit) x 0.8 = 0.312 + 1.61 (cost of the spread) = $1.92 (more conservative exit price for the spread)
Rationale:
- GLD appears to be stalling around the $148- $150 range
- Stocks are still a little too extended for me to look at longs, however i realize that higher equities are on the cards for the next week or so, this is a more conservative to way to play both the stalling momentum in gold and the relative strength in equities
- The upside is capped with this strategy, however it is still a relatively good risk/ reward, particularly with the higher delta spread (short leg being delta 70)
- TradingEdge