Gold Returns to a Sensitive Zone – Is the Downtrend Already DoneHello everyone, gold is undergoing a rather deliberate correction after dropping from 4,110. Price is now moving around 4,078–4,066 — low enough to make buyers cautious, yet not deep enough to trigger panic. I want to share my personal view on the most likely bearish scenario at the moment.
1. What is the market showing us?
On the H2 chart, price is sitting right at the edge of the Ichimoku cloud, supported by a green FVG and a thin buffer zone at 4,045–4,035. The sequence of small red candles last night resembles profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. It feels like the market is “offloading for comfort”, not capitulating.
The most notable area is the 4,045–4,035 support cluster:
this zone overlaps the nearest FVG and also marks the accumulation base from 19–20 November. It behaves like a natural stopping point — where price tends to return to gather liquidity before choosing its next direction.
2. The news factors pressuring gold
September’s NFP came in at 119k (vs 50k forecast), pushing rate-cut expectations lower. The USD strengthened, and the Fed gained more reasons to stay cautious as October’s report was combined into November.
At the same time, US and EU equities strengthened thanks to Big Tech leaders, with Nvidia’s strong earnings pulling capital out of safe-havens. The 10Y yield hovering around 4.1% and oil dropping to 59.5 USD further reduced gold’s appeal.
Overall, this is a news-driven pullback — a familiar “sentiment reset” after a heated rally.
3. The highest-probability bearish scenario (in my view)
I lean toward the scenario where price continues drifting toward 4,045–4,035 to gather liquidity and tap the FVG, then forms a rejection wick and rebounds toward the resistance zone at 4,095–4,115.
This is a technical rebalance after news, not a signal of a long-term trend reversal. As long as 4,000 holds, the market still has enough momentum for the next bullish leg.
