Gold May Undergo Short-Term Correction as USD Rebounds📊 Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,320/oz on May 28, 2025, after failing to break above a key resistance zone. The US dollar’s recovery and rising Treasury yields are putting short-term pressure on gold, despite lingering geopolitical tensions.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,330 – $3,360
• Nearest Support: $3,280 – $3,235
• EMA 09: Price is currently above the EMA 09, indicating that the upward trend remains intact.
• RSI Indicator: RSI stays above the 50 level, suggesting momentum is still bullish.
• Candlestick Pattern: A doji near the $3,330 zone signals market indecision.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may see a mild correction if the USD continues to strengthen. However, holding above $3,280 would keep the bullish momentum alive.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,330
🎯 TP: $3,310 (200 pips)
❌ SL: $3,340
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,285
🎯 TP: $3,305 (200 pips)
❌ SL: $3,275
Goldinvesting
Gold is about to reach the shorting zone
The tariff policy against Europe and Apple was temporarily shelved last Friday due to the decline in the credibility of the Trump administration, which failed to push gold prices up this week. Instead, gold prices continue to fluctuate within the downward channel. Currently, the focus is on the resistance level of $3,325-3,335, and shorting can be attempted near this level.
Pay close attention to whether the support level of $3,280 and the resistance level of $3,365 are broken.
Gold closed with a big negative line, and may fall below 3285
📌 Driving events
On Monday, gold prices fell nearly 2%, falling below the $3,300 mark. Investor sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump decided to postpone the imposition of tariffs on EU imports. The recovery in risk appetite, coupled with the dollar's small rebound from last week's decline, put pressure on the non-yielding precious metal.
Earlier, President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had a call over the weekend and finally decided to postpone the U.S. plan to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9. The move eased global trade concerns, prompted investors to shift away from safe-haven assets other than the dollar, and pushed global stocks higher.
📊Commentary Analysis
Gold showed a downward trend on Tuesday and has now broken below the 5-day moving average. This change has turned the market from a previous strong rise to a volatile trend. However, to determine whether the market has weakened, further observation is needed.
From the perspective of upper resistance, focus on the position near 3350. This position is not only yesterday's high point, but also the resistance position formed by the extension of the line connecting the high points of 3350 and 3438. Once the price breaks through this resistance level, it means that the market will return to a strong upward trend. In fact, it is near 3325 or the low point in the previous decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the top and bottom conversion here. The support level below is first yesterday's low of 3285 and the previous low of 3280.
💰Strategy Package
Operation strategy;
Short gold near 3325, defend 3335, target 3305-3285
Long gold near 3280, defend 3270, target 3300-3320
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold 3315 gains and losses are the key
📌 Driving events
From the news perspective, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3% month-on-month, with an expected value of -7.8% and a previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Volatile commercial aircraft orders plunged 51.5% in April after rising in March. Boeing said it received only eight aircraft orders in April, the lowest since May 2024, far lower than the 192 orders in March, the highest since 2023. Affected by the sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders, U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in April, with core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) falling 1.3%, the biggest drop since October last year. Under the influence of uncertainty in tariffs and tax policies, corporate investment willingness is weakening.
Through the data, it is not difficult to find that American companies have shown obvious caution in assessing the demand outlook and have shifted their focus to cost reduction, which directly reflects the impact of uncertainty brought about by Trump's trade policy. At the same time, the tax legislation being debated in Congress has also put companies on the sidelines, further suppressing the impulse to invest.
📊Comment Analysis
After the pullback on Monday this week, the decline accelerated on Tuesday, and the continuous decline came back, changing the strong upward trend of last week
💰Strategy Package
In terms of operation, in the short term, long and short operations can be carried out in the range of 3315-3297 US dollars, and the support position of 3285/80 should be paid attention to below; medium and long-term investors can buy on dips and take advantage of geopolitical risks and the trend of weak US dollars to gradually establish long positions.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Spot gold fell below the 3330 mark
📌 Driving events
The trend of gold prices this week needs to focus on the following three major risk events:
First, the confrontation between Israel and the Houthis intensified this week. On May 25, the Houthis used hypersonic missiles to attack Israel's Ben-Gurion International Airport for the first time, resulting in the interruption of airport operations. Israel subsequently launched a retaliatory air strike. Iran has made it clear that it "will not give in on uranium enrichment activities" and warned that it will take hundreds of alternatives if it is sanctioned
Second, although the Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union has been postponed to July 9, the market is still concerned about it. If the trade war escalates, it may lead to increased global economic uncertainty, which will in turn boost the safe-haven demand for gold. However, the repetition of tariff policies may also trigger changes in market risk preferences and have a two-way impact on gold prices.
Third, record-breaking air strikes in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict Russia launched the largest air strike since the war on Ukraine on May 26, launching 355 drones and 9 cruise missiles, and many parts of Ukraine suffered heavy losses. The attack has heightened market concerns about geopolitical risks, pushing gold prices higher in the short term. However, due to expectations of a prolonged conflict, market demand for safe-haven assets may gradually weaken. Technically, gold has performed strongly at support levels near $3,330.
📊Commentary Analysis
This week, gold prices will remain highly volatile under the intertwined influence of multiple risk events. Investors need to remain vigilant and flexibly adjust strategies to respond to market changes. Analyze the market, make plans, and manage risk.
💰Strategy Package
In terms of operations, investors are advised to pay close attention to the situation in the Middle East and the progress of Trump's tariff policy. In the short term, short selling can be carried out in the range of $3,330-3,305, with a target of around $3,290-3,280. Profits can be taken in batches, and a light position can be taken long after breaking through $3,310, with a target of $3,360-3,380. Profits can be taken in batches, and medium- and long-term investors can make layouts on dips, taking advantage of geopolitical risks and the trend of a weak dollar, and gradually establish long positions.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
The mouth can't drive gold up
💡Message Strategy
US President Trump announced that the deadline for EU trade negotiations will be extended to July 9, and at the same time withdrew the threat of a 50% tariff on EU goods originally scheduled for June 1. This decision marks a phased easing of US-EU trade tensions, leading to a significant cooling of market risk aversion.
The statement of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen revealed the key reason for the extension: "The EU needs more time to reach a comprehensive agreement that is beneficial to both sides." It is worth noting that just three days ago on May 23, Trump also threatened to impose high tariffs on EU cars and other goods in a tough manner, and even considered wielding the tariff stick against iPhones produced outside the United States. These remarks pushed the gold price up more than 2% in a single day.
📊Technical aspects
At present, the direction of gold is only a correction and decline. The market is not driven by words. The idea of gold trend that has been emphasized last week is to pull back to high altitudes. Facts have proved that gold cannot break through the high pressure position.
All the news is filled with the atmosphere of gold rising. The truth is often in the hands of a few people. We should correctly judge the changes in the market and not blindly follow them.
💰 Strategy Package
Short Position:3340-3350,3360-3370
Gold May Undergo Short-Term Correction as USD Rebounds📊 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,309/oz after retreating from the $3,350 region during the Asian session today. Selling pressure emerged as U.S. Treasury yields rose and the USD rebounded slightly, despite expectations of potential Fed rate cuts in the near future.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: $3,350
• Nearest Support: $3,290
• EMA 09: Current price is below the EMA 09, indicating a short-term bearish trend.
• The downtrend is confirmed by bearish candlestick patterns and increasing trading volume in recent sessions.
📌 Outlook
Gold may continue its short-term correction if the USD continues to rebound and U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. However, long-term support factors such as concerns over U.S. national debt and expectations of Fed rate cuts persist.
Gold bulls advance as expected Mainly go long on pullback.Today, gold opened lower and fell, reaching the lowest level of 3331. Then the bulls exerted their strength, reaching the highest level of 3356 and then adjusted back. The overall trend was highly consistent with the expected judgment. Looking back at the market last week, the technical side of gold continued the bullish pattern, and the oscillating upward trend was significant. From the daily level, the price repeatedly tested around the 3200 mark at the beginning of the week, and finally stabilized successfully, laying a solid foundation for the bull market. On Friday, it was supported by the 3280 mark, continuing the strong oscillating upward trend, forming a reverse middle Yang pattern, and the daily K line closed with an oscillating upward break of the middle Yang, fully demonstrating the short-term bullish pattern of gold prices, and bullish expectations continued to heat up.
Based on the current gold trend analysis, the focus below is on the 3330-3320 range support, and the focus above is on the 3380-3400 resistance. In terms of overall strategy, the bullish thinking is maintained before breaking 3320 to avoid blindly guessing the top.
Gold May Face Short-Term Correction Amid Strong Resistance📊 Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,335, retreating from a two-week high of $3,345.48. The US Dollar's weakness, driven by fiscal concerns and President Trump's extension of the EU tariff deadline to July 9, has supported gold prices. However, the easing of global trade tensions has limited the precious metal's upside .
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3,350, $3,364
• Nearest Support: $3,330, $3,300
• EMA 09: Price is trading near the EMA 09, indicating a neutral trend.
• RSI (14): 69.311 – approaching overbought territory, suggesting potential correction.
• MACD (12,26): 13.57 – bullish signal, but momentum is slowing.
• Williams %R: -17.476 – in overbought zone, indicating possible short-term pullback .
📌 Outlook:
Gold may experience a short-term correction if it fails to break above the strong resistance at $3,350. Sustained trading below this level could lead to selling pressure, especially as technical indicators point to overbought conditions.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy:
• SELL XAU/USD at: $3,345 – $3,350
🎯 TP: $3,330
❌ SL: $3,355
• BUY XAU/USD at: $3,300 – $3,310
🎯 TP: $3,340
❌ SL: $3,290
Trump's tariff measures trigger market shocks
📌 Driving events
Last Friday, as Trump threatened to raise tariffs on the European Union to 50%, and also pointed the finger at smartphone manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung, the market's risk aversion sentiment suddenly heated up, and spot gold closed up nearly 2% on the day.
On Sunday local time, US President Trump announced after a call with European Commission President von der Leyen that he would extend the deadline for the European Union to face 50% tariffs to July 9. Trump told reporters on his way back to Washington on Sunday: "We had a very pleasant call, and I agree to postpone the deadline."
Bloomberg analysis said that there are signs that US President Trump may relax his radical stance on EU trade, which will affect gold's safe-haven status.
At the geopolitical level, the conflict between Israel and Iran is imminent. The Israeli army's shooting of a diplomatic delegation has triggered international condemnation. Netanyahu has maintained a tough stance in the Israeli-Kazakh conflict; Trump's mediation of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has been frustrated. The Wall Street Journal revealed that when he spoke with the European side, he said that Putin believed that the Russian army was "winning", which contradicted his public statement. This week, the market focus shifted to the Fed's policy minutes, the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations, European and American economic data, and OPEC+'s production increase plan. The interweaving of trade frictions, debt risks and geopolitical conflicts has kept the uncertainty of the global pattern high.
📊Comment Analysis
The first support level for gold prices may be in the range of $3290-3300/ounce. If it falls below the above support, the next support for gold prices will be $3250/ounce and $3200/ounce (50-day moving average). On the upside, the first resistance for gold prices is $3370/ounce. If this obstacle is overcome, the next resistance for gold prices will be $3430/ounce and $3500/ounce (historical high).
Labaron will digest a series of economic data to be released by the United States this week, such as durable goods and home sales, as well as the consumer confidence index. The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday.
💰Strategy Package
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3388- 3390 SL 3395
TP1: $3376
TP2: $3363
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3301- $3299 SL $3294
TP1: $3312
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3338
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Gold Rises on Tariff News, But Caution NeededGold prices surged after the U.S. President announced a 50% tariff on EU imports, triggering safe-haven demand. However, analysts warn that this may be a short-term FOMO reaction rather than the start of a sustainable rally.
📰 Key Drivers:
- The tariff announcement spooked markets, boosting gold temporarily.
- The U.S. dollar dipped slightly, but bond yields remain high – a bearish sign for gold.
- No immediate EU retaliation weakens the long-term bullish case.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Resistance: $3350 – being tested but not yet clearly broken.
- Support: $3310 – may be revisited if upward momentum fades.
- EMA 09: Price remains above, but fading volume and long upper wick suggest weakening strength.
- Price Action: Sharp move looks emotion-driven; correction likely if no follow-up catalyst appears.
📉 Short-Term View:
Despite the surge, gold’s rise may be temporary. If no escalation occurs, a short-term pullback is likely as markets reassess the impact.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup (Short-Term Bearish):
SELL XAU/USD at 3345 – 3350
🎯 TP: 3330
❌ SL: 3355
BUY XAU/USD at 3310 – 3312
🎯 TP: 3325 – 3327
❌ SL: 3305
Gold May Continue Rising – Signs of Short-Term Recovery EmergingGold is showing a strong recovery from the recent low of $3280/oz and has now surpassed the key resistance at $3325, currently trading around $3330. The upward momentum remains intact as gold continues to trade above the EMA 09, indicating that bulls are still in control in the short term.
There is a possibility that gold could retrace slightly to the $3310 zone to gather momentum before pushing higher toward the next resistance at $3350.
Key factors supporting the short-term bullish outlook:
• The US dollar has temporarily weakened after economic data came in less impressive, giving gold room to rise.
• Gold demand has seen a slight rebound from ETFs after recent sell-offs.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and cautious sentiment in equity markets continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
• Price remains above the EMA 09, indicating the bullish trend is still intact.
• Nearest support: $3310 – could be an attractive entry point for buyers.
• Next resistance: $3350 – serves as the immediate upside target.
• Bullish candlestick patterns are forming with no strong reversal signals so far.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy (Short-Term Bias: Bullish):
• BUY XAU/USD at 3310 – 3312
🎯 TP: 3325 – 3327
❌ SL: 3307
• BUY XAU/USD at 3320 – 3322
🎯 TP: 3335 – 3337
❌ SL: 3317
Gold Remains Under Pressure – Further Decline Likely Not OverGold has touched the key support level at $3290/oz as expected and is now hovering around $3295, indicating that the downward momentum remains intact. Recent U.S. economic data has been positive for the U.S. dollar, adding to short-term pressure on gold.
➡️ The strong data reinforces the Fed’s hawkish stance , increasing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. As a result, both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields have risen, weighing heavily on gold prices.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
• Price is tracking below the EMA 09 , suggesting the downtrend is still in play.
• The $3290 support has been tested; a break below this level could open the door to the next target at $3225.
• A consistent bearish candlestick pattern shows no clear signs of reversal.
• Lack of strong buying interest at current levels suggests further downside is likely.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy (Short-Term Bias: Bearish):
• SELL XAU/USD in the $3294 – $3297 zone
🎯 TP1: $3275
🎯 TP2: $3225
❌ SL: $3305
• BUY XAU/USD only if price pulls back to the $3225 zone with clear support signals
🎯 TP: $3260 – $3270
❌ SL: $3210
Gold Shows Clear Signs of Weakness – Short-Term Downtrend LikelyGold is showing clear signs of weakness after failing to break the strong resistance level at $3350/oz. Bullish momentum has faded as gold broke below the $3325 support and continued its decline, now trading around $3310. Current technical signals indicate that the downtrend remains dominant, and there is a high probability that gold will continue correcting toward the $3290 support level, possibly even testing the $3225 area if the bearish pressure persists.
📰 Key Economic Data Scheduled for Today (U.S.):
• Unemployment Claims
• Flash Manufacturing PMI
• Flash Services PMI
These reports could trigger strong short-term volatility, especially if the data is positive and strengthens expectations that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy. This scenario could put further downward pressure on gold, as the USD strengthens and Treasury yields rise.
⚠️ Recommendation: Investors are advised to avoid trading during news releases to minimize risk from high volatility.
🔍 Short-Term Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: $3350 – remains unbroken, confirming weakening buying power.
• Nearest Support: $3290 – crucial level to monitor if the downtrend continues.
• Deeper Support: $3225 – could be tested if no strong rebound occurs.
• Short-Term EMA: Price is currently below the EMA 09, signaling further downside momentum.
• Bearish Candlestick Pattern: Series of long red candles reinforce the ongoing bearish trend.
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
SELL XAU/USD Zone : 3325$ - 3328
💰 TP : 3310 - 3313
🚨 SL $3335
BUY XAU/USD Zone: 3288$ - 3290$
💰 TP : 3313 – 3315
🚨 SL $3283
Gold breaks upward, space opens up
📌 Driving events
Internationally, US media reported that US intelligence agencies found that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and gold and crude oil both soared in the short term.
Recently, the Iran nuclear talks and the Russia-Ukraine talks were carried out simultaneously, and the market risk aversion sentiment fluctuated greatly
📊Comment analysis
While the medium and long-term outlook continues to be bullish on gold's performance this year, short-term operations are mainly based on news. Pay attention to light positions and maintain flexibility in short-term operations.
💰Strategy Package
🔥Buy Gold Zone: 3310-3315 SL 3307 Scalping
TP1: $3318
TP2: $3325
TP3: $3330
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3354-3356 SL 3361
TP1: $3345
TP2: $3332
TP3: $3320
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3252 - $3250 SL $3245
TP1: $3260
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3280
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold breaks through 3300, where is the next stop
📌 Driving events
Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stressed that the current US government's policies make it increasingly challenging for the Federal Reserve to effectively guide the economy and fulfill its dual mission of maintaining price stability and full employment. She also warned that the risk of a stagflationary environment (characterized by stagnant growth and persistent inflation) is rising. In contrast, Alberto Musalem, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, recently said that the current monetary policy stance is still appropriately adjusted.
Despite rising US Treasury yields, gold has struggled to gain support, indicating that higher yields alone are not enough to drive safe-haven demand under the current circumstances.
However, global monetary easing policies may provide support for this precious metal. In the latest moves during the Asian trading session, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut its benchmark interest rate, followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly cutting the cash rate from 4.10% to 3.85% - moves that usually support non-yielding assets such as gold.
📊Comment Analysis
Spot gold prices have extended gains in recent intraday trading, taking advantage of its stability above EMA50 and trading along a bullish trend line on a short-term basis, strengthening its ability to reach the main resistance level of $3,300 and break it. Some weak signals have appeared on technical indicators. We noticed that a negative overlap signal has formed on the RSI, and after reaching overbought levels, this indicates that a temporary adjustment is needed on the upward action. Therefore, gold has reduced some of its early gains and waited for clearer signals to continue the bullish trend.
💰Strategy Package
🔥Sell Gold Zone: 3354-3356 SL 3361
TP1: $3345
TP2: $3332
TP3: $3320
🔥Buy Gold Zone: $3252 - $3250 SL $3245
TP1: $3260
TP2: $3270
TP3: $3280
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Gold Price Update: Strong Rally Surpasses $3,250 SupportGold is experiencing a sharp rally, breaking through the key support level of $3,250/oz and currently trading around $3,280/oz.
- The main drivers behind this uptrend include:
- Increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.
- Fears of a potential recession and prolonged inflationary pressures.
- If gold sustains above $3,258, it is highly likely to continue its upward move toward the psychological level of $3,300.
- Should prices break above $3,300, the next potential target could be around $3,350.
📌 However, investors are advised to closely monitor key support and resistance zones to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
📊 Short-Term Trading Strategy
🟢 Buy
Entry Price: $3,265
Take Profit (TP): $3,300
Stop Loss (SL): $3,245
🔴 Sell
Entry Price: $3,298
Take Profit (TP): $3,270
Stop Loss (SL): $3,310
Rationale: The $3,300 area is a strong resistance level, and a short-term pullback may occur.
Gold Under Pressure from USD and the FedThe gold market is currently under pressure due to:
- Recent statements from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
- A stronger U.S. dollar, which reduces gold’s appeal.
Previously, gold had been supported by:
- A weaker dollar following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating.
- However, increased interest in risk assets and hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine have reduced demand for gold.
Key factors to watch going forward:
• Statements from the Fed
• Developments in trade negotiations
Possible scenario:
• The bearish trend remains dominant.
• A short-selling wave and a breakdown from the triangle pattern may occur.
• A further drop toward the 3150–3120 zone is possible.
Gold fluctuates, and the profit range is in this area
📌 Driving events
After a phone call with Trump yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that efforts to end the war in Ukraine are on track and Moscow is ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum of understanding for a future peace agreement. The United States has begun serious trade negotiations with the European Union, which has slightly improved investor sentiment. These negotiations broke the long-standing deadlock and brought some hope for more deals after Washington signed a framework agreement with the United Kingdom earlier this month. Trump had previously said that he could also reach an agreement with India, Japan and South Korea, but the negotiations with Japan seemed to be deadlocked over the issue of automobile tariffs.
📊Commentary Analysis
Gold prices fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar and safe-haven demand after Moody's downgraded the US government's credit rating.
💰Strategy Package
For intraday short-term operations, pay attention to the 3200 area for long opportunities and defend 3193. Pay attention to the 3235 area for short opportunities and defend 3242.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Fed Signals No Rate Cuts Until Sept – Gold Under PressureFed’s Interest Rate Outlook:
- Two senior Federal Reserve officials – New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic – signaled that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates before September 2025.
- The Fed needs more time to assess the economic impact of new trade policies from the Trump administration.
- Trade tariffs and ongoing negotiations are creating major uncertainties, making it difficult for businesses and households to plan financially.
- The probability of a rate cut in June has dropped to just 10%, and expected rate cuts for 2025 have been revised down from four to only two.
Impact on Global Gold Prices:
✅ 1. Short-term – Downward Pressure:
Prolonged high interest rates → stronger US dollar → gold prices face downward pressure as gold yields no interest.
🔄 2. Medium-term – Mixed Outlook:
- If trade talks fail and tariffs increase, leading to economic and inflation risks → gold may benefit as a safe-haven asset.
- Conversely, if trade tensions ease and inflation stays under control, expectations for rate cuts will decline further → gold may continue facing selling pressure.
💡 Short-Term Trade Scenarios:
SELL XAU/USD Zone : 3249 - 3252
💰 TP : 3247 – 3242
🚨 SL $3257
BUY XAU/USD Zone: 3190
💰 TP : 3195 – 3200
🚨 SL $3185
Putin's phone call changed the market?
📌 Driving Events
Putin's "peace smoke bomb", gold is under short-term pressure
Just when gold was soaring due to risk aversion, a piece of news on Monday cooled the market instantly - after Putin and Trump talked on the phone, both sides released the signal that "Russia and Ukraine will soon ceasefire negotiations." Trump even announced loudly: "Russia and Ukraine will start ceasefire negotiations immediately!"
US President Trump said, "We will do everything we can to stop the conflict in Ukraine."
This news caused the market's risk appetite to rise briefly, and the gold price fell slightly to around $3,220 in the Asian market on Tuesday. But senior observers soon discovered that Putin's words were full of diplomatic rhetoric - he only said that the peace efforts were "on the right track" but did not promise a specific ceasefire time. Former Swedish Prime Minister Bilt pointed out: "This is Putin's victory. He successfully delayed the ceasefire pressure while continuing military operations."
Market truth: Geopolitical risks have not really subsided, and the safe-haven demand for gold is only a short respite.
📊Comment analysis
For investors, the question now is not "whether to buy gold", but "when to buy and how much to buy". At the moment when the global economic order is being reconstructed, the light of gold may have just begun to shine.
💰Strategy Package
Bullish breakout scenario: If the price breaks through the high of last Friday's rebound at $3,252 and continues to rise, you can go long with a light position near $3,260, targeting the $3,280-$3,290 range.
Bearish breakout scenario: If the price breaks below the key support level of $3,200 and further declines, you can go short near $3,190, targeting the $3,170-$3,160 range.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the capital account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
Unlock XAUEUR Riches: Thief Trading’s Epic Long Setup!💎 Epic Gold Heist: XAUEUR Trade Plan💎
Greetings, Wealth Raiders & Market Mavericks! 👋🌍
Ready to pull off a legendary heist in the XAUEUR "Gold vs Euro" market? Our Thief Trading Style blends slick technicals with sharp fundamentals to unlock the vault. Follow this cunning plan, aim for the high-stakes Red Zone, and let’s swipe the profits! 🤑💰 This is a high-risk, overbought setup with potential for consolidation or a trend reversal—perfect for bold traders. Stay sharp, trade safe, and let’s get rich! 💪🎉
📈 Entry: Crack the Vault!
The bullish trend is ripe for the taking! 💥
Place buy limit orders at the most recent swing low or high within a 15 or 30-minute timeframe.
Pro tip: Set price alerts on your chart to catch the perfect entry.
For the fearless, jump in at market price—the heist is LIVE! 🚀
🛑 Stop Loss: Guard Your Loot
Protect your stash with a Thief Stop Loss:
Set SL at the nearest/recent low on the 4H timeframe (~€2800.00 for swing trades).
Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and number of orders.
Stay disciplined—don’t let the bears snatch your gains! 🐻
🎯 Target: Grab the Gold
Aim for €3070.00 or exit early to secure profits.
Scalpers: Stick to long-side scalps with quick hits. Use trailing SL to lock in gains.
Swing Traders: Hold for the big score, trailing your SL to ride the trend safely. 💸
🧠 Why This Trade? Real-Time Data & Insights (May 19, 2025)
The XAUEUR market is riding a bullish wave, fueled by macro and fundamental drivers. Here’s the latest scoop:
Technical Analysis 📊:
Gold broke key support at $3200 (~€3000) last week but is showing signs of consolidation near €3050.
RSI indicates overbought conditions, hinting at a potential pullback or reversal. Watch for bearish traps at €3070.
4H chart shows a strong uptrend with support at €3000 and resistance at €3070.
Fundamental Drivers 📰:
US-China Trade Deal Hopes: Easing tensions are weighing on gold’s safe-haven appeal, pushing prices lower.
Central Bank Buying: Demand from China and emerging markets (1,136 tonnes in 2022) supports long-term bullishness.
US Economic Data: Mixed signals from April’s US CPI and a Q1 2025 GDP contraction (-0.3%) keep markets volatile.
Macro Economics 🌍:
Trump’s tariffs (25% on Mexico/Canada, 20% on China) are stoking inflation fears, which could boost gold if growth falters.
A weaker USD (down 3% from February highs) supports XAUEUR’s upside.
ECB may cut rates below 2%, weakening the Euro and lifting XAUEUR.
COT Report & Positioning 📋:
OANDA sentiment shows 73% of traders net-long on gold, signaling bullish bias but potential for a squeeze if sentiment shifts.
Comex gold inventories are rising, indicating arbitrage opportunities and strong physical demand.
Seasonal Factors 📅:
Gold typically sees strength in Q2 due to wedding season demand in Asia and safe-haven buying amid geopolitical noise.
May often marks consolidation after Q1 rallies, so watch for volatility.
Sentiment Outlook (May 19, 2025) 😊:
Real-Time Sentiment: Market mood is cautiously bullish, with 65% of analysts favoring longs but warning of overbought risks.
Risk appetite is improving due to trade deal optimism, but geopolitical tensions (e.g., EU-US tariff threats) keep gold attractive.
Social media buzz on gold’s resilience despite recent dips, with traders eyeing €3100 by June.
Future Trend Outlook Score ⭐:
Short-Term (1-2 weeks): 7/10 (Bullish with caution due to overbought signals).
Medium-Term (1-3 months): 8/10 (Supported by central bank demand and inflation fears).
Long-Term (6-12 months): 9/10 (Gold could hit €3200 if trade wars escalate).
⚠️ Trading Alert: News & Position Management
News releases can flip the market faster than a getaway car! 🚗💨
Avoid new trades during high-impact events (e.g., US CPI, Fed speeches).
Use trailing stop-loss orders to lock in profits and protect running positions.
Check economic calendars for updates—Thursday’s macro data could shake things up!
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