Harmonic Patterns
Can Crude Oil Spike to 150 USD / bbl ? Scenario Analysis.With Mid East tensions rising and overall unpredictable
situation around Strait of Hormuz, let's review potential
scenarios for the Crude Oil Prices. I've outlined three
scenarios with projected oil prices for each scenario below.
🚨 Market Alert: Israel-Iran Conflict Impact Forecast 📈
🔴 Worst-Case Scenario: Regional War + U.S. Military Involvement
🚢 Oil (Brent): Soars to $150–$200+ if Strait of Hormuz closes
🥇 Gold: Skyrockets to $4,500–$5,000 (safe-haven rush)
₿ Bitcoin: Initial volatility; settles at $80k–$100k
📉 SPX: Crashes to 4,000–4,500
💻 NDX: Drops sharply to 15,000–16,000
🟠 Base-Case Scenario: Protracted Tension, No Major Disruption
🛢 Oil: Stabilizes at elevated $75–$95, occasional spikes
🥇 Gold: Moves higher, trading $3,500–$3,800
₿ Bitcoin: Trades steady, $90k–$110k range
📊 SPX: Pullback moderate, around 5,200–5,500
💻 NDX: Moderately lower, 18,000–19,000 range
🟢 Best-Case Scenario: Diplomatic De-Escalation
🌊 Oil: Eases down to $65–$75
🥇 Gold: Mild decline, holds at $3,300–$3,500
₿ Bitcoin: Positive sentiment, lifts to $100k–$120k
📈 SPX: Slight dip; stays strong near 5,800–6,200
💻 NDX: Minor correction, remains high at 20,000–22,000
NASDAQ Long-term looks brighter than ever!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a massive Channel Up since the bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis and during the April 07 2025 bottom, a very distinct bullish signal emerged.
The index hit its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since May 2023. As you can see, since the 2008 Crisis, every time the market rebounded after hitting the 3W MA50, it posted a rise of at least +62.06% before the next time it touched it (and that was on the highly irregular COVID crash).
As a result, we expect to see NDX hit at least 26500 (+62.06%) before a new 3W MA50 test. Chances are we see the market move much higher though.
Note also the incredible bounce it made on the 3W RSI 14-year Support Zone.
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10 - NotesTechnical analysis of 10Y T-Note Futures (ZN1!) on 4H timeframe
Elliott Wave count with Fibonacci retracements and completed A-B-C corrective structure. Currently observing potential start of new impulsive wave (1)-(2). Breakout from descending triangle confirmed above dynamic support. Monitoring for further bullish continuation or validation of larger corrective structure.
Could the Gold bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce from this level to the 1st resistance which is also a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,337.35
1st Support: 3,294.91
1st Resistance: 3,413.32
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6036
1st Support: 0.5965
1st Resistance: 0.6080
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BTCUSDT-– Symmetrical Triangle Breakout LoadingBitcoin is currently consolidating inside a Symmetrical Triangle, forming higher lows and lower highs – a classic sign of volatility compression.
🔹 Structure: Symmetrical Triangle
🔹 Support Holding Strong – bulls defending the zone
🔹 Breakout Expected Soon
🔹 Major Resistance: $110,200
🔹 Breakout Target: $112,000+
Price is coiling up. Break above the triangle = strong bullish continuation likely.
HATUSDT 1-Hour Heikin Ashi Chart Analysis BYBIT:HATUSDT
Analysis:
Recent Trend: The chart shows a sharp price drop recently, with red candles indicating strong selling pressure. 📉
RSI: The Relative Strength Index has fallen below 30, entering oversold territory. This suggests that selling may have been excessive, and a rebound could be possible. 📊
Support: A potential support level can be identified near the current price drop, around 0.00087 USD (based on chart figures). 🔽
Resistance: A possible resistance level could be near the previous trend’s low, around 0.0010-0.0012 USD. 🔼
Possible Targets:
Target 1 (short-term): 0.00095 USD - A small rebound after oversold conditions. 🎯
Target 2 (medium-term): 0.0011 USD - A test of the first resistance level. 🎯
Target 3 (long-term): 0.0015 USD - If a strong bullish recovery occurs after confirmation. 🎯
Set a stop-loss below the support level (e.g., 0.00065 USD) to manage risk. ⚠️
Ethereum:Daily signalhello guys👋
According to the drop we had, you can see that buyers came in and the price had a good growth, and after that a trading range was made in which the price got stuck.
Now, considering that the price is in the trading range and it seems that the buyers have shown their support, it is possible to step into the specified support areas with risk and capital management and move up to the set goals.
🔥Follow us for more signals🔥
*Trade safely with us*
BITCOIN This is the long-term picture. Don't get distracted.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating lately after making a new All Time High (ATH) last month and this is already making part of the market nervous over whether that's the Cycle Top or not.
This is one of those times when it would be best to ignore the short-term noise/ volatility and stick to the long-term picture. And that's exactly what's shown on this chart, with BTC on the 1M time-frame showing the incredible symmetry among its 4-year Cycles, with Bear Markets lasting 12 - 13 months and Bull Markets 35.
Based on that, this Cycle's Top is expected to be priced by October (2025). This also matches the Sine Waves as implied by the 1M RSI, which as been trading within a Channel Down (diminishing returns) since Bitcoin's inception.
So do you also think that we have around 4 months before the market tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETH ~Expansion done.Based on 3marketphase.
(contraction-expansion-trend, I learned this concept from dayya trading post)
ETH is at the box range.
(triangle-2024 August to October)
Plus, there is throwing-over with double-top (1week candle scale).
This means ethereum is at the end of contraction phase and it has high potential to trend phase. But I bet there is one more break-out from low before trend phase.
Keep an eye on all of break-out movements.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youRecent geopolitical tensions remain high, particularly in the Middle East where conflicts between Israel and Iran continue to generate new developments. Earlier this week, Iran was hit by an Israeli airstrike, a piece of news that instantly triggered a sharp rally in gold prices, pushing the metal to an intraday high of $3,450 per ounce. However, subsequent news of peace talks eased market risk aversion, causing gold to retreat rapidly. By June 18th, the price had dropped to $3,380 per ounce, with a daily volatility exceeding 2.7%.
Generally, geopolitical conflicts influence gold prices for 3 to 15 days, and when tensions ease, 50% to 70% of the conflict-driven rally tends to retrace. For example, during the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in October 2024, gold prices fell from $2,789 to $2,650 per ounce, a 5% retracement. Although the geopolitical situation has not further deteriorated, as long as tensions persist, gold remains susceptible to sudden price swings triggered by breaking news.
In the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, while the MACD indicator continues to operate below the zero axis in a bearish crossover, with green bars expanding—indicating a clear short-term bearish trend. Notably, the RSI indicator is currently in the oversold zone, suggesting potential for a price rebound. In terms of support and resistance levels, the lower support can be referenced at $3,340 per ounce, while the upper resistance focuses on $3,380 per ounce. A break above $3,380 may trigger a rebound, whereas a drop below $3,340 could lead to further declines.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD sell@3370~3380
SL:3390
TP:3360~3350