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Harmonic Patterns

AUDJPYAUD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and May 2025 Fundamental Outlook Current Interest Rate Differential RBA Cash Rate: 4.10% (held steady in April 2025, with gradual easing expected later in 2025). BoJ Policy Rate: 0.50% (maintained in May 2025 amid trade war risks). Interest Rate Differential: 3.60 percentage points (AUD yield advantage). This significant gap typically supports AUD/JPY appreciation as investors favor higher-yielding AUD assets. However, the BoJ has signaled willingness to hike rates if economic conditions improve, while the RBA plans further cuts, which could narrow the differential later in 2025. Key May 2025 Fundamental Events Australia (AUD) Retail Sales (May 2): March retail sales beat expectations (0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast). A repeat could bolster AUD. Services/Composite PMI (May 4): Forecast: 51.6 (Services) and 51.6 (Composite). A reading above 50 indicates expansion, supporting AUD. Monthly CPI Indicator (May 28): Critical for RBA policy. Persistent inflation may delay rate cuts, favoring AUD strength. Japan (JPY) Q1 GDP (May 16): BoJ slashed 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% due to trade war impacts. Weak data could pressure JPY. BoJ Rhetoric: Governor Ueda emphasized uncertainty over tariffs and delayed inflation targets. Dovish tones may weaken JPY. Global Risk Factors US-China Trade War: Escalating tariffs threaten export-reliant Japan and commodity-driven Australia. Risk-off sentiment could boost JPY as a safe haven. RBA vs. BoJ Policy Paths: RBA’s gradual easing (forecast: 2.6% by 2026) vs. BoJ’s conditional hikes creates a dynamic rate gap. Directional Bias for May 2025 Scenario AUD/JPY Impact Bullish AUD/JPY - Strong AU retail sales/PMI data - Sticky AU inflation (delays RBA cuts) - Weak Japan GDP Bearish AUD/JPY - Risk-off sentiment (JPY safe-haven demand) - BoJ hints at future hikes - Soft AU data Base Case: AUD/JPY likely trades with an upward bias in May, supported by the wide rate differential and resilient Australian data. However, JPY strength could emerge if global risk aversion spikes or BoJ adopts a hawkish tilt. Monitor: May 2 (AU Retail Sales), May 4 (PMIs), May 16 (Japan GDP), May 28 (AU CPI). In summary, the interest rate differential and AU fundamentals favor AUD/JPY gains, but trade war risks and BoJ policy nuances warrant caution.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
#GBPCHF: Major Swing Sell Opportunity! GBPCHF, there are two areas where you can sell it from. The first is the current market, where you can take a risk sell entry. However, if you’re looking for a safer entry, you may want to consider taking a second entry. This will be safer since the price would have filled the liquidity area. Good luck and trade safely! Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊 If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Short
by Setupsfx_
12
Bitcoin the Big Bearish TrapIn my opinion we are forming an extended right shoulder on the weekly 1 Scenario: It's expected to see an impulse to 107-112k area but I wouldn't buy spot/long btc in here under any circumstance. Based on weekly RSI, we might top somewhere there, or sooner 2 Scenario: We don't go above 100k and start a sudden move down, as SPX just retested it's previous highs and a retrace is expected as well. Regarding Altcoins, if btc goes above 115k, it's worth the risk with proper management but not sooner, or you risk being the exit liquidity in a very big downward move. Or, btc retraces to sub 80k and we have one more leg left of 20-30% on alts before doom
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrDorea
ETHEREUM 2025.05.01***Follow SEOVEREIGN to receive alerts. **Boosts help SEOVEREIGN analyze more assets. **Our team regularly publishes analysis reports on the cryptocurrency market. Asset Overview – Ethereum (ETH) 🎯 Target 1: 1,820 🎯 Target 2: 1,787 Ethereum has currently confirmed the 1.13 Bat Pattern, indicating a potential short-term downside move. This may offer an opportunity to consider a short position for futures traders. Of course, from a long-term perspective, we continue to expect upward momentum for Ethereum. However, a short-term technical correction is possible, so please take this into account in your trading decisions. This also serves as a good example for those interested in trading strategies based on harmonic patterns.
Short
by SeoVereign
Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
6
BTC 2025.05.01***Follow SEOVEREIGN to receive alerts. **Boosts help SEOVEREIGN analyze more assets. **Our team regularly publishes analysis reports on the cryptocurrency market. 🎯 Short-Term Bitcoin Downside Scenario While we still envision long-term upward potential, we are sharing a short-term bearish outlook based on the 15-minute chart for those engaged in futures trading. A classic Crab Pattern has been identified, which may serve as a helpful reference for those interested in harmonic patterns. Target 1: 95,705 Target 2: 94,650 As long as the pattern remains valid, a correction toward these levels can be considered a natural move. Please exercise caution and manage your risk appropriately when trading.
Short
by SeoVereign
Bitcoin update 10.04.2025 - BTC - 98k in May🔥 The Markets Are on Fire — and We Know Who Lit the Match. The last few weeks have been pure chaos. Markets are crashing, confidence is shaking, and crypto is confused. And let’s not pretend we don’t know who’s behind it. Donald Trump. Even a Korean guy selling panda souvenirs on the street told me: “This Trump is ruining everything.” And he’s not wrong. Billions wiped. Positions wrecked. But here’s the thing — this isn’t random. This is tactical drama. Trump sees himself as a master negotiator, and here’s how he plays the game: 🎭 The Trump Cycle (Get Ready for the Loop) Pressure — tariffs, chaos, media hysteria. We’ve seen it. Relaxation — 90-day delays, fake calm. Talks — and boom, “positive developments.” Good News — • “Bitcoin added to U.S. reserves.” in MAY? • “Americans to receive new stimulus.” • “China’s our friend again!” Charm & Flirt Mode — improving global relations, smiling at cameras. More good news — stock markets fly, crypto rips and everyone screams, “New bull run!” And then? 💥 Back to pressure. 📆 September 2025 is the punchline. That's when this cycle hits the weaker economies like a freight train: ✅ Broken supply chains ✅ Collapsing currencies ✅ Defaults ✅ And where there’s chaos — there’s war. Expect escalation in fragile regions like the Middle East. ✅ Crude oil falling to 40$ Markets will top on pure euphoria. The reversal begins when everyone’s drunk on hopium and “good news”. 💼 My Plan? Ruthlessly Simple: 🔹 May I will participate in the first Offline/Online International Crypto Trading Cup 2025 by WhiteBIT 🔹Jun-August -Euphoria in the market 🔹 September - Take profits 🔹 Either short — or sip something cold on a quiet beach. But we will see We’ve officially entered the Turbulence Zone. The following 10 years will be insane — for those who adapt, evolve, ride the trends, and harness AI and tech. If not? You get left behind. It’s not the strongest who survive — it’s the fastest to adapt. Best regards, EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
31
BTC - Inversion Play at Resistance With IFVG Breakdown PotentialPrice has tapped into a previously established resistance zone and is now showing signs of exhaustion. A reactive short setup is in play, contingent on further bearish confirmation. --- 1. Resistance Zone — Key Supply Area The marked red zone above highlights: - Repeated Rejections: Price has failed multiple times to break and hold above this level. - Order Block & Liquidity: Likely an area where institutional selling interest remains. This zone offers a prime location for short setups, especially if price fails to hold above it and begins to roll over. --- 2. IFVG Inversion — Breaker-Type Setup We are watching for: - Inversion of a Bullish IFVG: A common signal of shifting order flow. - Breaker Behavior: A previously supportive zone now acting as resistance — a hallmark of smart money reversals. This structure suggests an intent to trap late longs and transition into lower pricing. --- 3. Internal Liquidity Sweep — Fuel for the Drop The local high served to: - Clear Short-Term Liquidity: Wick just above resistance suggests engineered breakout bait. - Trigger Buyer Commitment: Which could now get trapped if momentum fails. This liquidity event sets up the conditions for a more sustained push downward. --- 4. Downside Targeting the Discount Zone Price is projected to revisit the blue discount zone: - 0.618–0.65 Retracement Levels: Classic Fibonacci discount area often targeted after a premium rejection. - Reaccumulation Potential: Watch for signs of buyer interest returning here. This forms the logical destination for price following a confirmed rejection. --- 5. Summary: - Price Rejecting Resistance & IFVG Inversion Signals Reversal Bias - Liquidity Sweep Confirms Trap Setup - Discount Zone Below Offers High-Probability Reaction Area A strong short scenario may unfold if bearish order flow confirms beneath the resistance region.
Short
by Louigi_24
28
ETHUSDT: Progressing Well 01/05/2025 UPDATEThe ETHUSDT price is moving well, currently trading above the 1700$ area. We anticipate a continuous rise, potentially reaching $2400 first and then $3000. Our swing target remains at $4500. The current price behaviour and momentum suggest an extremely bullish outlook. Good luck and trade safely! Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊 If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
6
BITCOIN is filling all gaps as it should.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having its strongest 1D green candle since April 22 (for now) and basically today's analysis is a continuation/ modification of our April 14 buy call (see chart below): Our Target was $99500 but we now update it to $106000 as we see a different pattern through filling the Lower Highs gaps. As you can see, since BTC's April 07 bottom, the rebound has filled one Lower High of the downtrend after the other. At the same time, it has posted identical rallies before consolidating, the 1st one +15.37% and the 2nd +15.11%. We are currently on the 3d and if it makes again +15.11%, then it gets us to $106.9k. That is marginally above the Lower High of January 30, practically the first Lower High after the January 20 All Time High (ATH). Moreover, the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level is at $106k and this is why we've moved our short-term Target there. This fills all dynamic conditions of this uptrend. Do you think that's a fair estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
#CHFJPY: Next Target 180 or Beyond! Get ReadyCHFJPY is extremely bullish this week. The price has risen above 175 as of today, primarily due to the strong USD economic data and the BOJ’s decision not to change interest rates. We anticipate a steady bullish move. Good luck and trade safely! Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊 If you’d like to contribute, here are a few ways you can help us: - Like our ideas - Comment on our ideas - Share our ideas Team Setupsfx_ ❤️🚀
Long
by Setupsfx_
5
Gold Price (XAUUSD) Retesting Fibonacci Support ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is currently in a technical phase that aligns with a classic **retesting formation**, where price action returns to previous support levels before resuming its bullish trend. After hitting a recent high near 3,350–3,400, gold has begun a healthy retracement, with key Fibonacci levels acting as potential demand zones. The 3,200–3,150 range appears to be a strong support zone, and if this level holds, it could trigger the next leg up in the bullish trend. Volume remains supportive, suggesting market interest is still intact, and buyers may be preparing for re-entry. This consolidation phase could offer an excellent opportunity for smart money accumulation, particularly as gold respects major technical levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. From a macro perspective, continued geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and central bank accumulation of gold provide a strong fundamental backdrop that supports a long-term bullish outlook. If gold maintains above the key 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, we could soon witness a new wave targeting the 3,350 to 3,400 resistance zone once again. Market participants should watch for confirmation through bullish candlestick patterns and increasing volume in the coming sessions. A break above 3,275 would further validate bullish continuation and may serve as a trigger point for momentum traders. The broader trend remains intact, and current price action fits the pattern of a technical breather before the next impulsive rally. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alpha-GoldFX
BITCOIN | 30M | IMPORTANT SUPPORT ZONE Hello, my friends, Yesterday, I shared a Bitcoin analysis and stated that my target level is 97,300. At the moment, we are within the blue support zone I highlighted in my analysis yesterday. Although this is not a very strong support zone, I am expecting an upward movement from here. However, the most critical support level lies between 92,000 and 91,000. As I mentioned yesterday, as long as the price does not drop below the 92,000 - 91,000 levels, my target remains at 97,300. Please don't forget to like. Thank you to everyone who supports with likes.
CAPITALCOM:BTCUSDLong
by TraderTilki