SPY .. Using Fibs a bit differently, like in Reverse squaredSo most people are used to the typical, "drag from bottom to a top or top to bottom and see where the percentages(ratios) lay"...well I kinda did it a little differently....as my name suggests, its a psychotic technique...but it hit some funky levels eh?
You take a high to a high, or in this case a low to a low and then you use the reverse function on the settings to show what it would be like:
Theory-- To understand a fib retrace you have to retrace something, but what if the bottom you are looking at may not be a true corrective bottom. Well, pick to pivot bottoms, as seen above and then connect them. But the reverse function allows for the "retace" to be calculated for another set of bottoms to come or if you may be at a new high peak.
Its by no means random cause you are following a retrace but using a multiplier and two pivots (be them highs or lows) to see what the mathematical nature of those two lows mean to your future charting. As follows... are those two lows I used really worth using for further analysis, well seeing how many times those fib lines hit seriously important places, they can be. But also, it means that you can connect those two and then do other funky things with them, which I will show below, to check "angular Fib Channeling" for future price action levels too.
If it all makes no sense, then answer me this,....you ever do something so out of the ordinary one day and something just clicked into place- like weirdly accurately; you find out there was an entirely different way to go about the thing you did and it arrives at the same mathematical conclusion...that is what I excel in- finding the weird, but working ideas.
4hr view:
angular Fib Channeling on the daily and 4hr respectively:
and the more funky way using algorithmic numeration with Fib Channeling:
(same blue arrows as previous fib channel regular settings, but changed numbers to my own mathematically derived...see what I mean that math can get you to the same place even with many different avenues of choice available)
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and lastly...to find angles if you arent able to:
You use the date and time combo measuring tool to find the exact square of two pivots you want to check the angle of...you go from the one point to the other, and then drop down along the same vertical of point two until you get to the exact value price of point one. Then you simple use the fib tool to set the angle from point one to two, then drop down vertically to the third point and there you go...see, works quite nicely...also using my custom number again:
4hr:
Harmonic Patterns
EURNZD Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
USDCAD Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a like or comment!
CHFJPY Technical & Order Flow Analysis (Swing Trading)Our analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will fall to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
AUDJPY Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will fall to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
AUDNZD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on multi-timeframe top-down analysis & fundamental analysis.
Based on our view, the price will rise to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis can change anytime without notice and is only for assisting traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no reason to act on it, and neither should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
EURUSDEUR/USD Interest Rate Differential and Fundamental Outlook for May 2025
Interest Rate Differential
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been easing monetary policy, cutting key rates by 25 basis points in April 2025 to a Main Refinancing Operations Rate of 2.4% and Deposit Facility Rate of 2.25%. This marks the sixth consecutive rate cut as inflation in the Eurozone moves toward the ECB’s 2% target.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has kept the federal funds rate steady at 4.50% as of March 2025, with expectations of only two rate cuts during 2025 amid persistent inflation and solid economic growth in the US.
This results in a significant interest rate differential favoring the US dollar, with the Fed rate roughly 2 percentage points higher than the ECB’s main rate.
Fundamental Data and Events in May 2025
Eurozone Economic Growth: The Eurozone showed better-than-expected growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, but downside risks remain due to trade uncertainties and slowing global demand.
Inflation: German headline inflation eased to 2.1% in April, while France’s inflation remained steady at 0.8%. The ECB expects inflation to return to target by year-end, justifying continued easing.
US Economy: The US economy contracted unexpectedly by 0.3% annualized in Q1 2025, partly due to import spikes ahead of tariffs. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data in early May will be closely watched for Fed policy signals.
Trade Optimism: Growing optimism about easing US trade tensions with India, Japan, South Korea, and China has supported the US dollar recently, limiting EUR/USD upside.
ECB Guidance: The ECB remains data-dependent and cautious, refraining from committing to a fixed rate path amid “exceptional uncertainty,” largely related to trade policies.
EUR/USD Directional Bias for May 2025
Factor Impact on EUR/USD
ECB rate cuts and easing bias Bearish for EUR
Fed’s higher rates and fewer cuts Bullish for USD
Eurozone modest growth and easing inflation Mild support for EUR, but limited
US economic contraction and trade optimism Mixed; weak US data could support EUR temporarily
Trade tensions easing Supports USD strength, weighing on EUR/USD
Overall Bias: The interest rate differential and Fed’s relatively hawkish stance favor the US dollar, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD in May. Despite some positive Eurozone data, the ECB’s easing and trade optimism supporting the dollar suggest EUR/USD will likely trade sideways
Summary
The Fed’s 4.50% rate vs. ECB’s 2.4% rate creates a strong yield advantage for the US dollar.
The ECB’s continued easing cycle contrasts with the Fed’s cautious but higher rate stance.
Eurozone growth and inflation are improving but remain fragile amid trade uncertainties.
US economic data and trade deal developments in May will be key drivers.
EUR/USD is expected to face selling pressure or consolidation around demand floor , with downside risks if US data remains resilient.
#STORJ/USDT#STORJ
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is on its way to breaking it strongly upwards and retesting it.
We are seeing a bounce from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 0.3060.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break and retest, supporting the upward trend.
We are looking for stability above the 100 moving average.
Entry price: 0.3090
First target: 0.3125
Second target: 0.3170
Third target: 0.3231
#CVX/USDT#CVX
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward.
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward move with a breakout.
We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at 2.72, which acts as strong support from which the price can rebound.
Entry price: 2.83
First target: 2.90
Second target: 2.97
Third target: 3.06
#SEI/USDT#SEI
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame and is expected to break and continue upward.
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average once again.
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that supports the upward move with a breakout.
We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at 0.2000, which acts as strong support from which the price can rebound.
Entry price: 0.2032
First target: 0.2074
Second target: 0.2119
Third target: 0.2164
Xrp - Prepare for at least a +50% move!Xrp - CRYPTO:XRPUSD - will head much higher:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Xrp has perfectly been respecting market structure lately and despite the significant volatility, the overall crypto market remains bullish. Especially Xrp is about to perform a bullish break and retest, which - if confirmed by bullish confirmation - could lead to a rally of about +50%.
Levels to watch: $3.0
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) May 2025 Outlook: Dollar Dynamics and Directional Bias
Optimism about potential tariff reductions and trade agreements has reduced safe-haven demand for gold, pressuring prices to two-week lows near $3,200-3204
A finalized deal could further strengthen the US Dollar (DXY), exacerbating gold’s decline.
US Dollar Strength:
The DXY has rallied on trade relief and mixed Fed rate expectations, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
Interest Rate Differential: While futures price in Fed cuts starting June (four total in 2025), the dollar’s near-term resilience limits gold’s upside.
Technical Breakdown:
Gold broke below a multi-week symmetrical triangle, signaling a bearish wave which will be targeting $3,100–$3,000
Immediate resistance sits at $3,3287–$3,2780; a break above this zone is needed to invalidate the bearish structure.this level represent a broken demand floor and calls for retest.
US Jobs Data (May 2): Weak Non-Farm Payrolls (<130K) could revive rate-cut bets, supporting gold. Strong data (>150K) may extend dollar gains.
Fed Policy (May 7 Meeting): No rate changes expected, but hints of June cuts could trigger volatility.
May Directional Bias
Factor Impact on Gold (XAU/USD)
Trade Deal Progress Bearish (dollar strength, risk-on sentiment)
DXY Rally Bearish (inverse correlation reasserted)
Weak US Data Bullish (safe-haven flows, rate-cut speculation)
Geopolitical Shock Bullish (flight to safety)
Gold faces downside pressure in May, targeting $3,100-3000 driven by dollar strength and fading safe-haven demand. A close below $3,200 would confirm the bearish trend.
Upside Risks:
Escalation in Middle East tensions or renewed US-China tariff threats.
Disappointing US economic data (e.g., jobs, CPI) reviving aggressive Fed cut bets
Conclusion
The dollar’s strength and trade optimism dominate gold’s near-term trajectory, favoring a bearish bias in May. However, gold remains a critical hedge against unexpected geopolitical shocks or dovish Fed pivots. Traders should monitor the May 2 NFP report and Fed rhetoric for directional cues.
Meta - The Correction Is Officially Over!Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) is retesting the previous all time high:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For more than 7 years, Meta has been perfectly trading in a reverse triangle formation. And just three months ago, Meta once again retested the upper resistance trendline and reversed towards the downside. But with the retest of the previous all time high, this correction is over.
Levels to watch: $500, $800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AUDJPYAUD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and May 2025 Fundamental Outlook
Current Interest Rate Differential
RBA Cash Rate: 4.10% (held steady in April 2025, with gradual easing expected later in 2025).
BoJ Policy Rate: 0.50% (maintained in May 2025 amid trade war risks).
Interest Rate Differential: 3.60 percentage points (AUD yield advantage).
This significant gap typically supports AUD/JPY appreciation as investors favor higher-yielding AUD assets. However, the BoJ has signaled willingness to hike rates if economic conditions improve, while the RBA plans further cuts, which could narrow the differential later in 2025.
Key May 2025 Fundamental Events
Australia (AUD)
Retail Sales (May 2):
March retail sales beat expectations (0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast). A repeat could bolster AUD.
Services/Composite PMI (May 4):
Forecast: 51.6 (Services) and 51.6 (Composite). A reading above 50 indicates expansion, supporting AUD.
Monthly CPI Indicator (May 28):
Critical for RBA policy. Persistent inflation may delay rate cuts, favoring AUD strength.
Japan (JPY)
Q1 GDP (May 16):
BoJ slashed 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% due to trade war impacts. Weak data could pressure JPY.
BoJ Rhetoric:
Governor Ueda emphasized uncertainty over tariffs and delayed inflation targets. Dovish tones may weaken JPY.
Global Risk Factors
US-China Trade War: Escalating tariffs threaten export-reliant Japan and commodity-driven Australia. Risk-off sentiment could boost JPY as a safe haven.
RBA vs. BoJ Policy Paths:
RBA’s gradual easing (forecast: 2.6% by 2026) vs. BoJ’s conditional hikes creates a dynamic rate gap.
Directional Bias for May 2025
Scenario AUD/JPY Impact
Bullish AUD/JPY - Strong AU retail sales/PMI data
- Sticky AU inflation (delays RBA cuts)
- Weak Japan GDP
Bearish AUD/JPY - Risk-off sentiment (JPY safe-haven demand)
- BoJ hints at future hikes
- Soft AU data
Base Case:
AUD/JPY likely trades with an upward bias in May, supported by the wide rate differential and resilient Australian data. However, JPY strength could emerge if global risk aversion spikes or BoJ adopts a hawkish tilt. Monitor:
May 2 (AU Retail Sales), May 4 (PMIs), May 16 (Japan GDP), May 28 (AU CPI).
In summary, the interest rate differential and AU fundamentals favor AUD/JPY gains, but trade war risks and BoJ policy nuances warrant caution.
#GBPCHF: Major Swing Sell Opportunity! GBPCHF, there are two areas where you can sell it from. The first is the current market, where you can take a risk sell entry. However, if you’re looking for a safer entry, you may want to consider taking a second entry. This will be safer since the price would have filled the liquidity area.
Good luck and trade safely!
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SPY - short-term analysishi traders,
Let's have a look at SPY on 1h time frame.
As we can see the price created a double bottom and with the catalyst (Trump paused tariffs), the price pumped 11%.
It's approaching the resistance area and bulls are not out of the woods yet.
I expect a short-term pullback.
RSI is very overbought in 15 15-minute time frame which confirms this thesis.
Entry, target, and stop loss are shown on the chart.
Risk-reward ratio: 3,13