Range-Bound Rocket: BTC’s Coiled Spring Between S1 and R3-ATHRange Bound Rocket: BTC Loaded and Coiled for $120k Retest
Description:
BTC is now trading around $114,260, still inside the range I’ve flagged earlier. We reloaded at our previously posted support zones between $110k and $111k. That gives us a strong base.
I’m watching for acceptance above the $113k to $114k red box, which overlaps with the neckline of a potential reverse Head & Shoulders on the 4‑hour chart. It hasn’t triggered yet but we are in validation mode. (expecting a retest to 113k and then a break up) If we get a breakout with volume expansion and wide‑bodied candles, I’ll treat that as a valid activation. Target remains $119k and above.
This table shows how likely BTC is to stay above certain price levels over the next two weeks based on current volatility. These are not predictions, they represent statistically expected ranges based on price behavior.
2WK/Probability, Price Level, Meaning
90%, ~$96,700 BTC is very likely to stay above this level
75%, ~$103,200 BTC has a strong chance of staying above here
50%, ~$111,000 This is the midpoint, BTC has equal chance of being above or below
25%, ~$119,400 BTC has a one in four chance of closing higher than this
10%, ~$127,400 Only a small percentage of outcomes put BTC above this level
Key takeaways:
BTC is currently trading around $114,260, sitting just above our red resistance zone at $113,000 to $114,000.
Our first upside target, $118,000, lines up with the top 25 to 30 percent range of expected outcomes. This is reachable if the broader market stays supportive.
$120,000 sits closer to the top 20 percent threshold. BTC would need strong momentum and favorable macro data to push there in the next two weeks.
Downside probabilities
While the structure looks bullish, we should still consider these potential retracement levels:
Around 46 percent chance BTC dips below $110,000
Approximately 43 percent chance it drops under $109,000
Roughly 30 percent chance BTC trades below $105,000
These downside paths are consistent with our S2 and S3 support zones, which were successfully defended during the last major pullback.
What I'm doing and suggest :
Breakout confirmation:
I’m looking to add above $113k to $114k only if volume expands and candles show conviction, meaning minimal wicks and strong closes. Weak volume or upper wicks mean the breakout could fail. Main stop is back inside the range. Scalpers can use a tighter invalidation below $112.2k.
Reload zone:
A move into $110k to $109k is a statistically common retest. I’ll look for buyer defense and fading downside pressure to reload.
Volatility risk:
I'm already positioned long from our previously posted support zones around $110k to $111k, so I’m not actively adding or hedging right now. Into CPI and the Fed, I’m staying hands-off unless we get a clear breakout or strong market signal.
For those not in position:
Avoid chasing breakouts before the event
Look for confirmation or reaction post-data
If we get a volatility spike, retests of $110k to $109k are still statistically common and may offer a better entry
The goal is to avoid being overexposed heading into binary catalysts. I’m holding my current spot exposure and letting the trade breathe.
If no breakout forms:
I expect BTC to remain in a range between $111k and $118k. Support zones from prior posts maintained a bullish bias. If BTC consolidates below $114k but keeps forming higher lows, I’ll consider that ongoing accumulation.
Catalysts to monitor:
Nasdaq or NQ breakdown
• Tech strength: Nvidia up ~30% YTD on strong Blackwell Ultra demand, ADI and MX showing strength despite macro headwinds.
Jobless claims rising again
• U.S. jobless claims are rising to 237K, signaling labor market cooling. Continuing claims are easing but job additions in August were weak at just 22K. Recent wide downward revisions (~911K fewer jobs year-to-date) reinforce rate‑cut bets.
Geopolitical risk
• Geopolitical tensions remain tail‑risks.
Fed rate tone and CPI reaction
• Fed tone and CPI outputs are increasingly important as data is tilting soft and markets are pricing in easier policy.
• The USD’s trajectory matters. Further weakness helps BTC and tech space gain more cushion.
Tech remains a key driver. AI and semis continue to lead Nasdaq strength, and BTC still tracks equity moves closely. A soft dollar also reduces market drag and supports upside potential.
