Copper: CUUUSD Another weak Dollar play for next 3/4 days' tradeCopper: CUUUSD Another weak dollar play. Ideal is to buy any dip in Tokyo and rely on dollar weakening ahead of Thursday. Then sell it off the parallels above and go flat (which one depends on your own appetite for risk/reward) and wait to see if the upper parallel can be broken (unlikely on first attempt but you never really know) and if/when it is broken go long again as per comment. Maybe it will happen and maybe it won't. But ask yourself this: would YOU really be wanting to hold USD between now and Thursday if you had the choice? Here's the thing: you do have the choice. You can hedge or you can do nothing.
Hedge
DXY: BITCOIN BTCUSD Potential weekend hedge for a falling DollarDXY: Dollar index and Bitcoin: The Dollar has closed for the weekend on its lows and below critical supports and will get hit again hard on Monday. It should fall a further 1.7% from here over the coming week or two. But there is one potential way to hedge this situation: it depends on Bitcoin breaking above 2460. If it does it should be worth following this weekend. Please see Bitcoin comment for more details
USD BITCOIN: How to hedge against a falling $ this weekendDXY: Dollar Index The Dollar closed on its lows for the weekend and will likely be sold off heavily if not in Tokyo, in London come Monday. it should fall a further 1.7% from here.
But there could still be an opportunity this weekend to hedge - it depends on Bitcoin breaking above 2460. If it does, it should be worth following. Please see Bitcoin comment also.
VIX Index Futures: VI1! Best way to hedge longs at current levelVIX Index Futures: VI1! - still the best way to hedge longs at current levels. Likely downside is 10% maximum from here and upside is 40% minimum over next 3 months.
EURUSD: A good hedge, and a valid tradeI have a powerful signal here, bought breaking yesterday's high today. I had given up on Euro longs, and sold in disgust, which is a strong 'self-contrarian' signal. Whenever it happens, take heed, and act with haste after the market breaks a previous day high or low, since your exit. If you don't take the trade back, you will probably face one of those times when you exit a trade at the bottom, to then see the trade go your way without you...so, why face that irritating feeling?
Fade yourself, when we're emotional, we're a reflection of the 'herd'. Fascinating huh?
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD Bearish Cypher Pattern Re-entryJust shorted the AUDUSD @.7660, I've been eyeing the Bearish cypher pattern on the daily for a while and was actually short this pair but ended up stopping out for break even after the Fed's rate decision. Luckily I hedged the position against the USDJPY and made profit on that pair. So here we go again, hedging this position again the USDJPY this time! Fundamentally I believe the dollar will gain some strength, and I believe this is a good set up from a technical standpoint as well.
Stops are above HOD (If I'm wrong I don't want to eat into my profits from USDJPY, which I am still short)
Targets are at previous structure, although the .382 retracement on the Cypher is also a viable option
PGRE - Potential Upward channel reversal Short trade from $18PGRE is running within an upward channel. If it gets up-to $18 to its upper Channel line, this could be interesting in the short side. As $18 is a major resistance label as well. We think it can reverse from there & can go all the way down to $15 area.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- February 28, 2017
Pattern/Why- Upward channel reversal & breakout
Entry Target Criteria- short between 18.00 and 18.05
Exit Target Criteria- Momentum ($15.20)
Stop Loss Criteria- $18.40
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
JACK - Support breakdown short from $92.77 JACK looks pretty interesting short setup. It had a huge decline below MA200 & holding this support now. Moneyflow has plummeted. It has huge downward potential if it can break the support label.
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- March 2, 2017
Pattern/Why- Support breakdown
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $92.77
Exit Target Criteria- Momentum
Special Note- We would consider $95 April Puts @ $3.60 or $95 Jun Puts @ $6.50
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
TUP - hedge your longs with Feb 55 putsOn January 13th and 17th, Smart money built up almost 5,000 contracts of new open interest in Tupperware Brands Feb 55 puts. Using Friday Jan 13th's cost of $2.40, break even stands at $52.60 -- basically at the recent support confirmed during the last two weeks of December. These Feb 55 puts include earnings and will profit should earnings disappoint or if recent bullish technicals fail to confirm and the stock price resumes it's downtrend from its Oct 2016 highs.
With the stock price recently breaking out of a downtrend and recapturing the 50 day moving average, I am bullish as long as price stays above the 50dma, but watching for a Failed Breakout Reversal to join the Feb 55 puts.
EURUSD Super BreakOut (SELL) Are you Ready?EURUSD Might be doing some major breakout below the D1 Support. Are you ready to catch it?
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#6 VOLUME - HEDGE FUND INVESTING TRADE WE SHARE #6 VOLUME HEDGE FUND TRADE. TRADE WITH OWN RISK
WE WILL SHARE #10 OUR HEDGE FUND TRADES IN YEAR 2016 !
LIKE & FOLLOW US AND DON'T MISS HEDGE FUND TRADES!
SOMETIMES YOU WIN SOMETIMES YOU LEARN
-NEW SIGNAL-
Type : Market Execution
Date : 29.8.2016
Time : 18:15 GMT+1
Technical : Weekly head and shoulders
Pair : AUDNZD
Timeframe : Weekly
Trade setup : Long
Entry at : 1.04417
Take profit 1 : 1.12193 ( 770 pips )
Take profit 2 :
Take profit 3 :
Stop loss : 1.02806 ( 160 pips )
Risk reward :
TP1 – 1:5
TP2 –
TP3 -
Our risk :
-Full bar risk (ie entering near a break or having a full bar to work with - stop behind the bar) = 3% risk
#5 VOLUME - HEDGE FUND INVESTING TRADEWE SHARE #5 VOLUME HEDGE FUND TRADE. TRADE WITH OWN RISK
WE WILL SHARE #10 OUR HEDGE FUND TRADES IN YEAR 2016 !
LIKE & FOLLOW US AND DON'T MISS HEDGE FUND TRADES!
SOMETIMES YOU WIN SOMETIMES YOU LEARN
-NEW SIGNAL-
Type : Pending Order
Date : 28.8.2016
Time : 13:30 GMT+1
Technical : BEOB formed at supply zone & trendline break
Pair : NZDUSD
Timeframe : Daily
Trade setup : Sell stop
Entry at : 0.72161 ( 20 pips left )
Take profit 1 : 0.70000 ( 216 pips )
Take profit 2 :
Take profit 3 :
Stop loss : 0.73860 ( 169 pips )
Risk reward :
TP1 – 1:1.3
TP2 –
TP3 -
Our risk :
-Full bar risk (ie entering near a break or having a full bar to work with - stop behind the bar) = 3% risk
USDCHF FALSE CHANNEL BREAK OUT1)Price failed to break and close above resistance zone @ 0.99040
+ triple top formed @ 0.99500 zone
2) False Break and retest of descending price channel
3) Daily support broken @ 0.98402 zone
4) Previous Daily candle closed as an bearish engulfing
5) MA's spiralling to the downside
adding confluence to bearish momentum
6) A break of the trend line will warrant shorts
7) Target 1 @ 0.95039 zone = weekly support giving extra confluence
ADMP- Fallen angel pattern LongPerfect fallen angel pattern. Has upward momentum, just crossed MA 20 & money-flow is rising. We think it will rise up to 4.5 or higher.
You can check our detailed analysis on ADMP in the trading room/ Executive summery link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span: 48.30”
Trade Suggestion Date: 5TH Jul
Trade Status: open (6th Jul)
Leveraged Decay: how to calculate itBrexit and currency hedging has thrown up the need for products such as SUP3 however there is danger in holding such leveraged products as SUP3 (3X Long GBP Short EUR). As path dependency of the currency picks up in volatility the arithmetic mean drifts below the geometrical mean.
This is most easily realised in the following example of an up and down fluctuation of 10%:
100 +10% = 110
110 - 10% = 99
We have lost 1% due to the path dependency having only moved up and down 10%
We can approximate the volatility drag using the following:
Volatility Drag = 0.5 * (Leverage) * (Standard Deviation) ^2
This comes from the formula for the geom mean:
Geom Mean = Arith Mean - 0.5 * SD^2
It is not precise but allows a proxy to be formed!
GER30 (DAX) LONG
Holding GER30 (DAX) Longs (No selling Longs yet)
TP1: 10.000 / 10.100 (just below EMA200)
TP2/TP3 to be revised after Brexit Referendum
#Holding "Short Hedge from 9700"
Personal opinion
1. Scenario UK Stays in EU (Long TP1 10.300, TP2 10.800)
2. Scenario UK Leaves EU (Short TP1 9400, TP2 8600)
...............................................................
MONTHLY: Bounce from April LOW
DAILY: Pitchfork Bull vs Bear (Possible break from bearish channel)
DAILY: Similar candlestick pattern "Daily low"
GREEN line: Monthly High (from Dec 2015)
RED line: Monthly Low (From Dec 2015)
Lets follow the coming days and get the best out of it.
Happy Trading
Gert






















