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Dow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key DriversDow Jones Correction in May 2025: Key Drivers Summary: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is under pressure and likely headed for a correction due to the Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policy, trade uncertainty from Trump’s tariffs, and weak economic data. Key Drivers: ➖ Federal Reserve Policy: At the May 6–7 meeting, the Fed is expected to maintain the 4.25–4.5% interest rate due to persistent inflation (2.7% forecast for 2025) and a robust labor market (+177K jobs in April). This dampens hopes for rate cuts, pressuring stocks. ➖ Trump’s Tariffs: New tariffs raise inflation risks and recession fears, reducing the appeal of Dow Jones constituents like Caterpillar and Walmart. ➖ Weak GDP and Global Volatility: A 0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and declines in Asian markets (1.6–1.8%) signal global instability. ➖ Technical Indicators: DIA trades below its 200-day moving average (~420 USD), with fewer stocks above this level (down from 76% to 55% since January), indicating market weakness. ➖ Outlook: Analysts (Long Forecast) predict volatility, with a potential drop to 38,958 in May, despite an average forecast of 43,370 by month-end. Historically, corrections occur every 1.88 years, and current conditions (tariffs, inflation, GDP) heighten the likelihood of a 10–15% decline. Target: My downside target for the Dow Jones is 38,555.00. Current factors and historical trends strongly suggest a near-term correction. Idea for S&P 500:
TVC:DJIShort
by SergioRichi
DXY (Dollar index) Shorts from 1hr supply zone My general outlook on the DXY this week leans bearish, as I expect price to continue trending lower. I’ve identified a nearby 1H supply zone, where we could see price react and begin pushing lower. There is also a larger supply zone further above, but it’s currently out of reach unless price pulls back significantly. Looking back, the 2-day demand zone I marked over a week ago has played out well, with a strong bullish reaction from that level — price is still rising from that zone. During this move, a new 11H demand zone has formed, which also led to a change of character to the upside. If price revisits that zone, we may see another bullish continuation from there. Key Points: Overall bearish trend expected to continue in the short term. 1H supply zone nearby is a potential trigger point for a sell-off. 2D demand zone previously marked is still holding and influencing price. 11H demand zone has caused a bullish shift and could provide another long opportunity if price returns. P.S. This is my general DXY outlook for the week. I don’t trade the dollar directly, but I use it as a key confluence when analysing and executing trades across other major pairs.
TVC:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue. Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TheSignalyst
4
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR May/2025 source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations. The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs. In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%. The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
S&P 500: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis of S&P500 will explore both bullish and bearish scenarios, incorporating key levels and considering possible market and crowd psychology. Bullish Scenario: Potential Uptrend Resumption From a bullish perspective, if the S&P 500 maintains a position above the 5482 level, it could suggest a potential end to the current correction and a resumption of the major uptrend. A hold above 5482 might reinforce bullish sentiment, encouraging further buying activity, as traders may view this as confirmation of renewed strength. The index could then potentially retest the 5801 level, where it's possible that the index may encounter resistance on the first attempt. A successful break above 5801 would then open the path towards the 6135 zone, which represents a key upside target. Bearish Scenario: Potential Retest of Support Zones Conversely, if the S&P 500 fails to hold above the 5482 support level might trigger increased selling pressure, as traders liquidate positions. The index could then potentially retest the 5092 to 4833 support zone. This zone represents a critical area where buyers may step in, but a break below it would signal further weakness. Concluding Remarks In conclusion, the S&P 500's price action around the identified key levels will be crucial in determining its short- to medium-term direction. A sustained hold above 5482 could favor a bullish continuation towards 5801 and potentially 6135, while a break below 5482 might lead to a retest of the 5092 to 4833 support zone.
SP:SPXLong
by AccumulationPro
Analysis of Nasdaq 100 (US100) based on Price ActionThis analysis examines the recent price action of the Nasdaq 100 (US100) and identifies potential scenarios based on key technical levels. Current Situation: The price has recently moved above a short-term downtrend line, which could indicate a shift in momentum. This development suggests a possibility of upward movement. Potential Bullish Scenario: A decisive break and sustained close above the recent resistance level of 19,224 may open the door for further gains. In such a scenario, the index might target the 20,329 level. A successful move beyond that could potentially lead to a test of the historical peak at 22,245. Potential Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the index fails to overcome the 19,224 resistance, there is a chance it could retest previous support levels. These levels are identified at 17,592 and, subsequently, at 16,322. Conclusion: The US100 is currently at a critical juncture. The ability of the price to sustain a move above 19,224 may determine its short-to-medium-term trajectory. Both bullish and bearish scenarios remain possible, and traders should monitor price action closely around these key levels.
SKILLING:US100
by AccumulationPro
DAX Resistance Ahead! Sell! Hello,Traders! DAX is trading in a strong Uptrend, recovering itself From the trade-war lows And the index is locally Overbought so after the Retest of the horizontal Resistance above at 22,500 We will be expecting a local Bearish correction Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XETR:DAXShort
by TopTradingSignals
3
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
The Graveyard Of Hope!The Graveyard of Hope is littered with "Buy The Dippers." How many times can "Buy The Dippers" lick the stove before they finally learn their lesson not to believe anything Trumpchenko says? The Elona MAGA algorithm goes like this Over promise Under deliver Lie Declare victory Leave or Victim Blame Meanwhile, the economy falls into an economic recession/depression abyss! I am A political. I call it as I see it. My religion is Economics, Charts, and money. They don't lie! Click Boost, follow, and subscribe. Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help more people navigate these crazy markets. Don't smoke the hopium crackpipe. It will financially ruin you.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by RealMacro
4
Europe Vs US Break Out!This chart suggests huge long-term implications after breaking for the 2nd time this 16-year downtrend. EU since Trump took office has outperformed the US by 23%! More than half of that has occurred since the ambush on Zeleneskyy in the Oval Office. While no new high has been made yet to confirm, it is noteworthy that money may be flowing toward the EU more than the US for a decade or more. EU has a much lower debt to GDO at 80% than the US at 125%. Stock valuations are much more attractive than in the US. So much so that I labeled the EU as a value trap. Not anymore! The biggest obstacle right now is how much would a US recession impact the EU. Even if it does, I expect the EU to perform much better than the US. As such this chart should continue to outperform. I have another post up you may want to follow.
AMEX:VGKLong
by RealMacro
3
META Screaming CAUTION!The hardest thing is to call a short in a recession-proof stock, especially in the tech space. However, only so many dollars are available in the advertisement space, and it can't go up forever. Make this excuse at any price. As such, I rely on the chart screaming CAUTION! Again like most of my trade setups, this is a simple trade. Bulls should take their profits and smile. Bears short as high as possible with the internet to short more should it form a double top. The chart has spoken. Like it or not. Remember I am a macro trader so don't expect tomorrow to play out. My trades take time but have much bigger moves. ;)
NASDAQ:METAShort
by RealMacro
13
DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY / Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk ATR Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis. 📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. 🏴‍☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 💰💸💵DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets..., go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
FXOPEN:DXYLong
by Thief_Trader