BTC Rotations Aren’t What They Used to Be — Trojan Cycle This chart uses the Trojan Cycle: Dip & Profit Hunter tool to evaluate recent BTC price action in relation to structural flow dynamics — specifically price and volume behavior through a statistical lens.
The tool is part of a broader effort to monitor the evolving nature of capital rotation in crypto — one that considers how institutional infrastructure, regulatory filters, and synthetic signals may be altering traditional cycle behavior.
🧠 What This Tool Is Designed to Do
Rather than issuing classic buy/sell signals, the tool evaluates where we are in the broader capital flow rotation by analyzing:
Z-Scores of price and volume (how far each has deviated from their historical norm)
Percentile ranks (where current values fall relative to past distributions)
Price vs. Volume momentum divergence
A contextual output based on combinations of these metrics
The aim is to offer a clearer view into whether a move is structurally supported or potentially hollow .
🔍 Live Signal Example (as shown on chart)
Metric Value
Z-Score (Price) +0.65 (mild extension)
Z-Score (Volume) -1.27 (subdued flow)
Percentile (Price) 64%
Percentile (Volume) 2% (extremely low)
Combined Context 📉 Price leading — flow lagging, be cautious
Structural Signal 🟣 No high-probability setup
🗣 Interpretation (not prediction):
While BTC has advanced in price, this configuration suggests a lack of supporting volume — at least from the perspective of the current model. In the context of a maturing, compliance-filtered market structure, these kinds of setups may align with the idea of synthetic rotations: price expansion without true structural inflow.
📘 Why This Matters
The goal isn’t to call tops or bottoms — it’s to better understand the character of a move .
This tool helps frame whether a move may represent:
📥 Accumulation
🔴 Distribution
🚨 Euphoric extension
🧨 Synthetic narrative trap
…or simply neutral structure , as in the current case.
🔎 Interested in the Thesis Behind This?
This tool is part of a broader analytical framework outlined in the Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation theses.
To explore those ideas further, including full macro breakdowns and structural flow models, please visit the published charts for RWCS_LTD on TradingView.
📊 How I Use This Personally
I avoid adding risk when signals show price is leading while volume lags.
I scale in during “confluent buy” or “value + flow” setups.
I pair this with BTC.D, ETH/BTC, and TOTALES3/ETH to track relative strength and phase rotation.
💭 Final Thought
Whether this tool confirms your existing thesis — or challenges it — the intent is to help develop structure-informed judgment in a rapidly evolving market.
Macro
Bitcoin Fade 118k, buy 114–111k dips__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating below the yearly range high: higher-timeframe remains constructive while short-term momentum has turned lower. Sellers are active into 116.5–118k, with 111–114k catching dips.
Momentum: Bearish 📉 intraday with a supportive 1D/1W backdrop; “sell the rips” under 116.5–118k.
Key levels:
• Resistances (4H–1D): 116.5–118k (major pivot), 120–121k (intermediate supply), 124k (ATH area).
• Supports (2H–1D): 114–114.5k (range median), 111–111.7k (W Pivot High), 105–98k if 111k breaks.
Volumes: Normal to moderate; on 2H–4H, spikes mainly on sell pushes below 115k.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W = Up, 6H→15m = Down; 111–114k holds structure, 118k caps rebounds.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: VENTE — contradicts bullish breakouts and favors selective range trading.
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Trading Playbook
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Game plan: trade the range defensively below 118k and be ready to flip long on a confirmed 4H/12H close above it.
Global bias: Neutral-bullish as long as 111k holds, tactically short below 118k; higher-timeframe invalidation if daily/12H closes below 111k.
Opportunities:
• Reactive long 114–111.5k on wick/volume confirmation, target 116k then 118k.
• Breakout buy on 4H/12H close > 118k, aiming 120k then 124k.
• Tactical fade short 116–118k on clean rejections; target 114k then 112k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
• A 12H close < 111k opens 105k then 98k (HTF bullish invalidation).
• A 4H/12H close > 118k invalidates shorts and flips the bias long.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Powell signaled cuts “may be warranted” and the FAIT regime is being dropped → risk-on tailwind.
• Spot ETF flows turned positive again (ARKB, BITB), aligning with risk appetite → tactical support.
• Stablecoin inflows: >$500M USDC to Coinbase → potential spot fuel if 118k breaks.
Action plan:
• Range-long: Entry 114.5k→113k (ladder) / Stop daily < 111k / TP1 116k, TP2 118k, TP3 120k / R:R ≈ 2.0–2.5.
• Breakout-long: Entry on 4H/12H close > 118k / Stop ~116.5k / TP1 120k, TP2 124k, TP3 runner / R:R ≈ 1.8–2.2.
• Range-short: Entry 116–118k (rejection) / Stop 4H close > 118k / TP1 114k, TP2 112k, TP3 111k / R:R ≈ 1.5–2.0.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTF structure remains constructive while LTFs lean bearish under the 116.5–118k cap.
1W/1D: Bullish structure above 111k; a confirmed 4H/12H close above 118k unlocks 120k/124k.
12H/6H/4H/2H: Lower highs persisting; rebounds get faded under 116.5–118k, with 114k then 112k as magnets.
1H/30m/15m: Short-term down channel, micro-range 114.8–116.2k; prefer shorts under 116k, reactive longs only on clean 114k signals.
Divergences/confluences: Strong confluence at 118k (multi-TF resistance) and 111k (HTF pivot). This pair drives breakout vs. reversion scenarios.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro tilts mildly risk-on, but follow-through depends on holding closes above 118k and geopolitical calm.
Macro events:
• Post–Jackson Hole, Powell noted cuts may be warranted; US indices printed records, yields fell, USD slipped → risk-on support.
• Fed is dropping the implicit FAIT while keeping 2% long-term target → clearer policy path, lower regime uncertainty.
• Truflation near ~2.1% with slowing growth signs → higher cut odds, liquidity tailwind for risk assets.
Bitcoin analysis:
• BTC volatility: dip ~112k then bounce 115–117k; 118k remains the decision level.
• Spot ETFs: outflows flipped to inflows (ARKB, BITB) → increases odds of a clean breakout.
• Stablecoins: >$500M USDC to Coinbase = potential spot bid if 118k breaks; watch for deployment.
On-chain data:
• Elevated OI but recently cleaned up → leverage healthier yet sensitive.
• Slower net capital inflows late-cycle; ETH-derivatives dominance → potential volatility spillover to BTC.
Expected impact: Macro/on-chain slightly favor the top of the range; technically, bias flips only on a confirmed close > 118k, else range persists.
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Key Takeaways
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BTC holds a mature range between 111k and 118k with HTF tailwind but LTF headwinds.
- Trend: bullish on 1D/1W, bearish on LTF; 118k is the trigger for 120k/124k continuation.
- Best setup: buy 114–111.5k on clean reaction or follow the confirmed breakout > 118k; alternatively, fade 116–118k rejections.
- Macro: Powell’s easing tilt + ETF/stablecoin flows support upside if 118k gives way.
Stay nimble: trade the range until the break, and protect risk around key closes and macro headlines. ⚠️
BTC stuck 112k–115k: fade the bounce, watch Powell__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating below stacked resistances (115k–117k) after failing under 124k. Price is retesting a liquidity pocket at 112k while HTF supports still hold — an orderly pullback.
Momentum: 📉 Bearish intraday within an overall bullish HTF trend — ongoing correction below 115k.
Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/6H/1D) : 114.6k–115.0k; 116.8k–117.0k; 119.9k–120.0k
- Supports (4H/1D/1W) : 112.0k–112.3k; 109.0k–109.5k; 98.5k–99.5k
Volumes: Overall normal; moderate on 4H — active pressure without extremes.
Multi-timeframe signals: Intradays (15m→6H) trending down; 12H/1D/1W still up; aggregate trend down → correction under 114.7k/115k, repeated defenses at 112k.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: SELL (moderate risk-off) — confirms intraday weakness; caution while < 115k.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: primary trend still constructive, but intraday flow is selling — favor “sell the bounce” into 115k until that pivot is reclaimed.
Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 115k; invalidation if 4H close > 115k .
Opportunities:
- 🔻 Rejection short at 114.6k–115.0k → target 113.0k then 112.2k (invalid. > 115.6k).
- 🔼 Reaction long on a 111.8k–112.1k sweep with confirmation → target 113.5k then 114.7k (invalid. < 111.6k).
- 🔼 Break & hold > 115k (4H) → extension to 116.8k–117.0k then 120k (invalid. < 114.2k).
Risk zones / invalidations:
- A firm break < 112k (4H) unlocks 111.2k/109.3k;
- 1D close < 109.3k = risk of STRONG SELL toward 100k/98.5k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Powell at Jackson Hole today → could drive a 112k break or a squeeze > 115k.
- US margin debt at a record (~$1.02T) → fragility if volatility spikes.
- Inflation watch: rising oil and Japan CPI > 2% → temper near-term Fed easing hopes.
Action plan:
- Primary plan (rejection short) : Entry 114.6k–115.0k / Stop 115.6k / TP1 113.5k, TP2 112.5k, TP3 112.0k → R/R ~2–2.8 depending on fill.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Intraday timeframes keep correcting inside the 112k–117k range, while HTFs remain intact above 109.3k–112k.
12H/1D/1W: Uptrend structure intact above 109.3k; 115k is the pivot — reclaim > 115k reopens 116.8k–117k then 120k amid “normal” volume (no capitulation).
6H/4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Lower highs/lows; compression under 114.7k/115k; repeated defenses at 112k; a 30m bullish divergence (contrarian) could fuel a bounce to 113.1k–113.5k without changing trend yet.
Major divergences/confluences: Support confluence 111.8k–112.3k (seen across 6 TFs) vs priority sell zone 114.6k–115.0k — key axis for the next directional move.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Powell’s speech, elevated market leverage, and derivatives-led on-chain dynamics frame a cautious risk-off backdrop that can catalyze a range breakout.
Macro events: Powell today with a split Fed → likely cautious guidance; US margin debt at record (~$1.02T) → vulnerability if vol spikes; rising oil + Japan CPI > 2% → dampen near-term Fed easing.
Bitcoin analysis: Testing ~112k; many anticipate a sweep and quick buyback; weekly Kijun near ~99.4k echoes the 98.5k–100k HTF support; fresh USDT minted to Binance/Bitfinex suggests added liquidity/volatility.
On-chain data: Derivatives-led market (elevated OI then ~-$2.6B purge); slowing spot inflows despite recent ATH; no clear capitulation → downside more mechanical than spot-driven.
Expected impact: NEUTRAL SELL bias while < 115k; macro headlines may trigger either a false break below 112k or a squeeze above 115k — manage risk tightly around events.
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Key Takeaways
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Intraday correction below 115k, HTF structure still intact above 109.3k.
- Trend: 📉 Bearish intraday / 📈 Constructive on HTF.
- Key setup: Sell rejection at 114.6k–115k toward 112k, or tactical long on defended sweep of 112k.
- Macro: Powell + high leverage = elevated risk of directional spikes.
Stay disciplined: execute the plan, respect invalidations, and adapt quickly around headlines. ⚠️
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BTC Between 112.6k and 117k: Trade the Pivot, Not the Ego__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating below 117k after a clean rejection, pressing a major HTF support around 112.6k. The pullback is orderly, with intraday downside inside a still constructive 1D/1W trend. ⚖️
Momentum: 📉 Tactically bearish — intradays trend down while 1D/1W remains broadly bullish.
Key levels:
- Resistances (HTF/MTF): 115.5–116.5k (4H–12H supply), 117,063 (240 Pivot), 124,277 (D Pivot).
- Supports (HTF): 112,646 (240 Pivot), 111,959 (prior W High), 110–109k (lower liquidity zone).
Volumes: Overall normal; moderate on 4H/15m → no climax, orderly pressure.
Multi-timeframe signals: 15m→12H trending down; 1D/1W still up. Holding 112.6k keeps daily structure constructive; a decisive close below opens 111.96k then 110–109k.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (risk-off) — aligns with momentum and caps rebounds while below 117,063.
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Trading Playbook
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Stay defensive: prioritize fade-the-bounce below 117k, while watching for a clean bullish reaction at 112.6k for tactical longs. 🧭
Global bias: Overall NEUTRE VENTE below 117,063; primary invalidation on 4H/12H close > 117,063.
Opportunities:
- Rebound short: sell 114.5–116.0k toward 113.2k then 112.7k (while < 117,063).
- Tactical long: buy a wick + reclaim at 112.8–112.6k toward 114.8k then 117.1k.
- Bullish breakout: add only on confirmed reclaim > 117,063 toward 120–124k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- Breakdown: a 2H/4H close < 112,646 invalidates tactical longs and exposes 111,959 then 110–109k.
- Reclaim: a 12H close > 117,063 invalidates rebound shorts.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Jackson Hole: potential hawkish tone post-FOMC minutes (inflation-focused) → headwind for risk.
- Energy: oil rebound on US draws → short-term inflation pressure, supports risk-off.
- Geopolitics: Middle East/Ukraine tensions → headline risk and volatility.
Action plan:
- Preferred setup (reactive long at HTF support):
- Entry: 112.8–112.6k after wick and 1H reclaim
- Stop: < 111,959 (1H/2H close)
- TP1: 114.8k; TP2: 117,063; TP3: 120k
- R/R: ~2.0–2.8 depending on execution
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Overall, intradays push lower into an HTF support that higher timeframes still defend.
1W/1D: Higher-timeframe structure intact while 112.6k holds; potential rebounds toward 117.1k if a clean pivot reaction prints.
12H/6H/4H/2H: Bearish bias with lower highs/lows; 114.5–116.5k remains a sell zone; watch for acceleration if 112.6k breaks.
1H/30m/15m: Bearish drift, micro-range 113.2–114.6k; mean-reversion possible but sellers in control without volume extremes.
Key signal: 112,646/111,959 support confluence vs. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE → decisive range battle; the break will define the next leg.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro risk-off (Fed/energy/geopolitics) weighs on sentiment while on-chain signals show timid demand near highs.
Macro events: Markets focus on Powell at Jackson Hole after inflation-leaning minutes; oil rebound adds to inflation angle; geopolitics raises risk premium.
Bitcoin analysis: Price ~113–114k; Monthly bullish, Weekly neutral, Daily bearish; US spot ETF outflows vs. HK listings — mixed institutional signals consistent with consolidation below 117k.
On-chain data: 1Y MVRV Z-Score slightly < 0; subdued activity/fees near ATHs → modest spot demand, market catalyst-sensitive.
Expected impact: Macro/on-chain backdrop supports an NEUTRE VENTE bias while 112.6k is pressured and no pro-risk catalyst emerges.
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Key Takeaways
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Market is testing a key HTF support with intradays bearish but no capitulation.
- Overall trend: tactically bearish, higher-timeframe bullish if 112.6k holds.
- Most relevant setup: reactive long at 112.8–112.6k with tight stop; otherwise fade 114.5–116k.
- Key macro factor: Jackson Hole tone that could trigger range resolution.
Stay disciplined: wait for confirmation at the pivot — the break will decide. 🔎
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Bitcoin Critical Test Strong SELL Setup & Support at 112k__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview
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BTCUSDT is entering a critical transition phase, with bears firmly in control and persistent compression around major weekly supports.
Momentum : Clear bearish trend 📉 as selling flows dominate and every rally gets rejected under resistance; no major signs of trend reversal at this stage.
Key levels :
Resistances ( HTF & MTF grouped ):
- Zone 121,500 – 124,700 $ ( D/240/HTF )
- 116,800 – 118,000 $ block ( 240/4H/1H )
- 114,600 $ intraday pivot
Supports :
- Critical pivot zone 111,980 – 113,000 $ ( W/HTF )
- Lower cluster 109,000 – 110,000 $
Volumes : Volume remains normal on high timeframes but defensive spikes are seen on 30min/15min, highlighting a lack of bullish capitulation and no sustained buying flows.
Multi-timeframe signals : All major timeframes (D, 12H, 6H, 4H) show pronounced bearish bias; a few brief bottoming attempts on 1H/4H lack structural strength. No compelling bull signals across the board.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context : “Strong sell” Risk On / Risk Off Indicator bias is confirmed across all timeframes, directly supporting the bearish momentum; no current macro/technical element challenges this view.
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Trading Playbook
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With a dominant bearish environment, strategy remains defensive—ready to sell failed bullish recoveries.
Global bias : Strong SELL as long as the chart remains under 116,800 $; any clean break below 111,980 $ invalidates the short-term reversal scenario.
Opportunities :
- Sell into failed rallies under 114,600 – 116,800 $ (tight stop recommended)
- Tactical scalps on weak intraday bounces towards 114,600 $
Risk zones / invalidations :
- Bear extension likely if 111,980 $ zone breaks cleanly—targets 110,000 $
- Sustained move above 116,800 $/118,000 $ = short squeeze threat; instant stop required
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news) :
- UK inflation re-acceleration sustains central bank uncertainty and a risk-off tone.
- Broader sell-off in Tech/Equities weighs on crypto beta, amplifying the defensive backdrop.
- Tether's latest stablecoin growth reflects dry powder, but structural demand hasn't returned yet.
Action plan :
- Entry: Short setups preferred below 116,800 $; confirm on failed test at 114,600 $
- Stop: >118,000 $
- TP1: 112,000 $ ; TP2: 110,000 $ ; TP3: 109,000 $
- R/R estimate: 2.5–3 depending on entry; tactical adjustments during FOMC minutes or major Powell speeches.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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All timeframes display a strong alignment to the downside, with only minor short-term volume divergences.
1D/12H/6H/4H : Price stays pressured below 116,800 $/118,000 $ with repeated rejections; support cluster 111,980–113,000 $ is key. No reversal patterns identified.
1H/30min/15min : Short-term volume spikes during defensive rebounds. Buyers quickly absorbed; attempted recoveries sold. 113,000 $ area offers tactical scalping but overall macro trend remains short-biased.
Major confluences : All timeframes focus on the same weekly support and highlight repeated failures under identical resistance blocks, reinforcing the SELL scenario until further notice.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro and on-chain drivers reinforce the technical bearish stance.
Macro events : UK inflation uptick revives global rate caution, Tech/Equities correction intensifies the risk-off mood, and all eyes are on FOMC minutes/Powell for major volatility; no bullish catalyst is evident.
Bitcoin analysis : Institutional flows are drying up, structural support lost with an “air gap” visible on-chain down to 110,000 $. Opportunistic accumulation between 112–114k $ remains insufficient as profitability drops.
On-chain data : Weak demand, defensive buying at local supports (113,000 $), negative ETF flows; intermediate capitulation phase is in progress, with further selling risk if 110–112k $ breaks.
Expected impact : The combination locks in a dominant SELL bias, confirmed by technical readings; all rallies are tactical and made to be faded.
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Key Takeaways
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BTCUSDT is locked in a bearish trend, defined by risk-off sentiment across both technical and macro/chain contexts.
In summary: trend remains bearish, the clearest setup is a strictly-managed short around key resistance, with invalidation above 116,800 $. Macro drivers, including global risk aversion and waning structural demand, weigh heavily—no bull catalyst has emerged.
Stay disciplined, monitor reactions at weekly support, and manage risk dynamically as new macro events unfold.
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Tactical BTC Consolidation—Major Support Under Threat__________________________________________________________________________________
🇬🇧 Market Overview
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BTCUSDT is consolidating in a tight range just below recent highs, as directionless momentum and cautious sentiment dominate.
🏁 Momentum : Weak bearish bias 📉, with little directional conviction—short/MF timeframes remain in soft seller control.
🔎 Key levels :
Resistances (1D/4H): 122,300–124,400 / 119,800–119,900 (upper range)
Supports (1D/4H): 114,640–114,800 (crucial pivot zone) / 111,900 (historic floor)
📊 Volumes : Normal to moderate levels, no extreme activity outside minor spikes on 6H/30min.
⏱️ Multi-timeframe signals : Higher timeframes (1D/12H/6H/4H) structurally remain up, but momentum is exhausted; 2H and lower show persistent selling, as key 114,640–114,800 support is repeatedly tested across TFs.
🛡️ Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Neutral sell bias —confirms a lack of buying pressure and calls for tactical caution.
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Trading Playbook
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In this bearish range setup, prefer a defensive and adaptive approach.
🌐 Global bias : Overall neutral sell bias unless 114,640 is broken—dropping below invalidates any hope for a rebound.
💡 Opportunities :
Buy only on confirmed reversal above 114,800 with a tight stop.
Tactical short/sell on rejection below 119,800, targeting the range base.
Wait for a breakout above 119,900 (with volume + risk-on confirmation) before chasing upside.
⚠️ Risk zones / invalidations :
Firm break below 114,640 = potential flush to 111,900.
Loss of momentum on MTFTI lower TFs (2H/15min) = avoid aggressive long anticipations.
🌍 Macro catalysts :
Jackson Hole anticipation heightens volatility and market nerves.
Strong institutional presence (MicroStrategy/Google/Canada) backs mid-term demand.
No on-chain capitulation = technical floor is safe for now, but no bullish impulse yet.
📝 Action plan :
Entry: on confirmed rejection or rebound (114,800 or 119,900 depending on signal direction).
Stop: just under 114,640 for longs, above 119,900 for shorts.
TP1: 117,200 – TP2: 119,800 – TP3: 122,000 (R/R ~2–2.5).
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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All timeframes focus on the tight 114,640–119,900 range, with each downside extension challenging the pivot.
1D/12H/6H/4H: Underlying uptrend stalled, price stuck at key support without reclaiming main resistances—momentum is drained.
2H/1H/30min/15min: “Bear control” showing, with supports cracking or close to breaking, and intermittent buying volume. A break below 114,640 could trigger sharp downside volatility.
Summary: Major divergence between stalled high TFs and persistent short-term selling explains the battle for trend; sustainable recovery requires aligned bullish signals across multiple horizons.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro and on-chain context suggest a wait-and-see climate, with no imminent capitulation but increased caution.
🌐 Global traders await Jackson Hole, preserving volatility and a defensive posture amid ongoing geopolitical tension (Middle East). Capital flows remain cautious.
💸 Strong institutional involvement (MicroStrategy, Google, Canadian funds) reinforces Bitcoin’s structural support.
🔗 On-chain, most holders are in profit, altcoin OI is at record levels, and implied volatility remains low—a mix that could spark future volatility, but panic is absent.
✨ These macro/on-chain drivers reinforce the current sideways range and argue for a very defensive technical stance until a clear catalyst emerges.
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Key Takeaways
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BTCUSDT is stuck in a compressed range with no clear directional trigger.
Trend: Neutral seller bias overall, intraday bearish, key 114,640–114,800 support under heavy pressure.
Best approach: wait for a clean defensive reversal at support, with strict stop management—no aggressive swings unless 119,800 is reclaimed.
Jackson Hole remains the main macro catalyst; any surprise flow or event could quickly break the current stalemate.
Stay nimble, watch 114,640–114,800 closely, and adapt rapidly to any macro or volume triggers! 📊
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AUDUSD - Follow The Macro Trend!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈AUDUSD has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
This week, AUDUSD has been retesting the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong weekly support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower blue trendline and green support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #AUDUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin: High-Stakes Consolidation Before Jackson Hole
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Market Overview
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Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase just below key resistance, with bullish momentum fading after several failed attempts to break higher.
Momentum: The overall trend is neutral to bearish 📉, as waning demand under resistance points to a lack of strength for a renewed uptrend.
Key levels:
Resistances (1D/12H): 118,575 – 122,218, 124,474
Supports (1D, 12H, 4H): 115,000 – 114,000 (immediate pivot zone), 111,900 (major weekly), 98,200 (extreme support).
Volumes: Volumes are mostly normal to moderate; however, a recent volume spike on the 15min signals a potential speculative bottoming attempt.
Multi-timeframe signals: Higher timeframes (1D–6H) show “Neutral Sell” to neutral, while intraday (4H–15min) turns clearly bearish, with some short-term reversal signals (divergences, extreme volume).
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: The Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is in “neutral sell” mode — matching the directionless momentum, with no strong recovery signal observed yet.
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Trading Playbook
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The dominant trend remains neutral to slightly bearish, prompting a defensive stance and readiness for scalping opportunities.
Global bias: Primary bias is neutral to bearish below $119,500 — a sustained breakout above this level is needed to flip the trend bullish.
Opportunities:
– Aggressive scalp buys between $114,000 and $115,000 if reversal signals (ISPD DIV BUY + extreme volume) are confirmed; targets: $116,800, then $118,575.
– Swing long only on weekly recovery above $119,500 with clear confirmation; otherwise stay defensive.
Risk zones / invalidations:
– A break below $111,900 invalidates any bullish scenario, exposing deeper correction risks toward $98,200.
– Sustained loss of $114,000 without absorption = risk of sharp downside.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
– Awaiting Powell’s Jackson Hole speech; implied volatility near lows could set up for abrupt expansion post-OPEX.
– Geopolitics are relatively calm; gold and JPY serve as global risk indicators.
– FX and index signals align with a cautious, unchanged environment.
Action plan:
Entry: buy scalp $114,000–$115,000 upon confirmation, stop below $113,800, TP1: $116,800, TP2: $118,575, TP3: $122,200; R/R approx. 2–2.5 depending on support response.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Higher timeframes (1D–6H) remain in tight consolidation below top-of-range resistance, with intradays (4H–15min) showing pronounced bearishness and speculative reversal signals on lows.
1D–6H: Price is capped under $122,200; key supports lie just below ($115,000–$111,900). Structure remains a tight range — decision zone very close.
4H–1H: Signs of distribution, persistent lower highs, repeated testing of the $115,000/$114,000 support zone. No evidence of lasting bullish reversal; watch for potential flush.
30min–15min: Overall "SELL", but bullish ISPD DIV divergences and very high volume suggest a speculative bounce if support holds. Such divergences are often markers for potential intraday trend shifts and warrant close monitoring.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro remains cautious, while on-chain metrics illustrate both underlying robustness and short-term fragility for BTC.
Macro events: Markets are on hold ahead of Jackson Hole; implied vol at/near all-time lows, dealer gamma high — any surprise catalyst could trigger significant volatility. A weak yen and Nikkei at all-time highs reflect shifting global risk preferences.
Bitcoin analysis: After the recent sell-off, BTC is defending the 114–115k zone. Whales and institutions are accumulating, but institutional flows as a whole remain light; risk of liquidations persists if a further correction unfolds.
On-chain data: BTC’s on-chain momentum is constructive, with little capitulation, but very low implied volatility flags a heightened risk of fast, outsized moves. Lever buildup in altcoins increases systemic fragility.
Expected impact: This context suggests a latent market, with substantial swing potential on the next external shock, confirming a cautious and tactical technical stance — active risk management around current supports is key.
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Key Takeaways
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BTC is trading in a high-range consolidation under resistance, with fading momentum and no macro catalyst in sight.
Overall trend is neutral to bearish across most timeframes, yet speculative rebound (scalp buy) signals are emerging on the shortest horizons (15–30min). The best setup is an aggressive scalp buy zone between $114,000 and $115,000 for nimble traders. On the macro side, any Jackson Hole-driven volatility could quickly tilt the balance.
Stay disciplined: a decisive loss of current supports could trigger sharp downside — active risk management is a must.
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Stablecoins as the New Macro Liquidity ProxyFor years, macro liquidity in crypto was gauged through broad monetary metrics like M2 or Total Market Cap. But those days are fading.
With the rise of regulated stablecoins—and new TradingView tickers like CRYPTOCAP:STABLE.C (Stablecoin Market Cap) and CRYPTOCAP:STABLE.C.D (Stablecoin Dominance)—we now have real-time, on-chain liquidity metrics that better reflect how institutional and retail capital enters the crypto ecosystem.
🔑 Why These Tickers Matter
• STABLE.C = Capital injection.
→ Tracks aggregate growth of major stablecoins, serving as a proxy for dry powder entering the system.
• STABLE.C.D = Sentiment signal.
→ Measures stablecoin dominance relative to the crypto market.
→ Rising dominance = risk-off (capital parked).
→ Falling dominance = risk-on (capital deploying).
Together, they offer a macro lens on risk appetite and capital inflow , updated in real-time—something no traditional metric can match.
🔍 How We Use Them
These metrics are now integrated into our Crypto Macro Cockpit , where:
• Stablecoin cap growth signals liquidity expansion or contraction
• Dominance slope helps identify regime shifts (risk-on vs risk-off)
We're beginning to see consistent patterns:
➤ Surges in STABLE.C precede market rallies
➤ Spikes in STABLE.C.D often align with rotation tops or periods of caution
📎 Implication
Stablecoins are no longer just trading tools—they’re macro indicators.
If ETFs are the Trojan horse for institutional entry, stablecoins are the bloodstream.
As we transition into a new cycle, these tickers might become the most important charts you’re not watching.
💬 Would love to hear from others—are you using STABLE.C or STABLE.C.D in your analysis? What signals are you seeing?
Bitcoin’s tipping point zone: Key macro catalysts in play__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Bitcoin is currently consolidating below major cycle highs, with upward momentum losing steam as sellers defend critical resistance. Failed breakout attempts and increasing volatility near key support hint at growing uncertainty.
Momentum : The underlying trend remains bullish 📈, but short-term momentum is fading; daily remains up, but lower timeframes are softening.
Key levels :
Resistances (D/12H/6H): 120,000–124,000 (zone) — main overhead barrier.
Supports (D/12H/6H): 116,926 (multi-TF pivot), then 111,119–112,000 (major safety zone).
Volumes : Daily volumes are normal, but 2H is flagging extreme moves — any break under 116,926 could unleash big moves.
Multi-timeframe signals : The uptrend persists from 1D to 4H, but there's a clear bearish transition in 2H and below. Structure stays bullish as long as 116,926 holds, with risk mounting on further retests.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context : The “Risk On / Risk Off Indicator” is in "neutral sell" mode, showing a slight relative deterioration versus US tech stocks — confirming the slowdown in momentum, though no total reversal yet.
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Trading Playbook
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With price compressed under major resistance, the strategy remains one of tactical caution and reactive setups.
Global bias : Cautiously bullish bias, maintained as long as 116,926 holds — this is the key invalidation threshold.
Opportunities :
→ Short-term long scalp possible if a seller exhaustion (ISPD DIV BUY on 15min) forms near 116,926/116,000, tight stop required.
→ Swing long only if price reclaims and confirms above 119,119–120,000 zone.
Risk zones / invalidations :
→ Clear break and close under 116,926 on H1/2H = bullish invalidation, next target 111,119.
→ Failure/rejection at 123,164–124,000 = exhaustion, beware false breakouts.
Macro catalysts :
→ Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Aug 22), key for market direction.
→ Massive BTC options expiration (~39K BTC, max pain near 118K), watch for post-expiry volatility.
→ Institutional inflows strong, but “pin risk” around options expiry could limit upside.
Action plan :
Entry: Wait for confirmed rebound on 116,926 (scalp or swing depending).
Stop: Below 116,000 (short-term) / Below 111,119 (swing).
TP1: 119,119 | TP2: 120,000 | TP3: 123,164–124,000 (if breakout).
R/R: Attractive (>2 if setup respected, <1 if chasing or volume extreme).
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Across timeframes, the key story is compression under major resistance, a pivotal multi-TF support at 116,926, and mounting nervousness in the lower frames.
Daily/12H/6H : Upward structure intact, but waning momentum under 120,000–124,000 signals possible transition to consolidation/correction if 116,926 is lost.
4H/2H/1H : Descending wick sequences, repeated support tests, rising volume, and a bearish momentum transition (MTFTI turning down in 1H/2H).
30min/15min : Aggressive selling pressure, local capitulation, and a bullish divergence on 15min (ISPD DIV BUY) suggest a potential but fragile rebound.
116,926 remains a true battleground: a breakdown here aligns bearish signals across TFs, while a solid rebound could quickly reclaim 119,119–120,000.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro and on-chain dynamics are in focus, with the Fed’s Jackson Hole stance, ongoing geopolitical caution, and high-risk BTC options expiration all in play.
Macro events : US retail sales beat, revisions up, and a widening 30Y–5Y yield spread keep risk premiums afloat. Geopolitical events remain tense but have yet to disrupt the main trend.
Bitcoin analysis : Options expiry (~39K BTC, max pain ~118K) could drive “pin” or sharp volatility. Institutional flows (Brevan Howard, IBIT) remain strong, but options-driven price action may cap upside for now. Defending the 116–117K support band is critical.
On-chain data : 95% of holders in profit, no mass capitulation; implied volatility is near record lows — primed for a “big move” if a macro trigger appears.
Expected impact : Macro and risk-on/off positioning keep technicals cautious — major support loss could spark a drop, but institutional reaction to Fed/policy signals could flip the bias quickly.
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Key Takeaways
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The overall bias remains structurally bullish, but short-term uncertainty prevails below 124K ahead of a critical macro/events window.
The market sits in a long-term uptrend but is showing short-term technical fragility around support. The primary actionable setup is a tactical rebound near 116,926 if seller exhaustion is confirmed (15min divergence), while valid swing entries require a solid reclaim of 119,119–120,000. Macro catalysts (Fed/Jackson Hole, options expiry) are decisive for the next major move.
The Trojan Cycle: A New Framework for Altseasons & Liquidity🧭 A Thesis for a New Crypto Cycle
This post proposes a new lens for understanding crypto’s macro structure in the institutional era—rooted in two frameworks: The Trojan Cycle and Synthetic Rotation .
It challenges the legacy “ M2 = liquidity, BTC = lead, alts = profit ” model, proposing a more engineered and asymmetric structure shaped by capital rails, narrative timing, and retail dynamics.
📖 Key Concepts
🔹 Trojan Cycle
A macro capital flow model where:
• BTC still triggers narrative momentum—but no longer drives liquidity alone
• Institutional capital enters via regulated wrappers like ETFs and through equities with crypto treasuries (e.g., MSTR, miners, COIN)
• Stablecoins replace M2 as real-time liquidity proxies
• Retail unknowingly front-runs these flows
🛠 Trojan access isn’t just through ETFs—it includes public stocks holding crypto on balance sheets. These Trojan equities serve as indirect exposure rails that institutions use stealthily.
🔹 Synthetic Rotation
Altseasons today are not spontaneous BTC profit spillovers. They are:
• Platform-driven
• Narrative-coordinated
• Liquidity-engineered
• Retail-targeted—by design, not coincidence
🛠 Media, influencers, and platform incentives synchronize narrative deployment to align with capital rotation windows, driving retail engagement at peak distribution phases.
🔹 ETH as a Structural Fulcrum
Ethereum isn’t just a top asset—it’s the bridge:
• Serves as a midpoint for capital between BTC and high-beta alts
• TOTAL3ES/ETH ratio reveals directional bias in rotation structure
🛠 ETH is a liquidity buffer and rotational fulcrum—not just a layer-1 narrative asset.
🔹 Structural Liquidity Fragmentation
Institutional and retail flows now move on different rails, timelines, and tools:
• Retail is incentivized through volatility and engagement
• Institutions scale in/out passively, through wrappers and proxies
🛠 These cycles don’t just desync by chance—they’re structurally misaligned. This is why retail often exits late and enters at narrative highs.
📊 Visual Framework
Using the Crypto Macro Cockpit script:
• Spread and slope = flow direction and acceleration
• Stablecoin cap = capital injection
• Stablecoin dominance = risk appetite
• TOTAL3ES/ETH = alt rotation pressure
• Composite regime classification = macro posture (Risk-ON/OFF, Caution, Waiting)
📎 Why It Matters
Understanding engineered cycles vs organic flows is key to staying ahead.
Legacy cycle models no longer apply.
New frameworks are needed to decode capital movement, timing asymmetries, and narrative deployment.
💬 This isn’t a prediction—it’s a proposed mental model for discussion.
Would love to hear your thoughts—how are you navigating the new cycle?
Bitcoin Macro Tailwind Meets Short-Term Volatility Battle__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Bitcoin’s momentum remains bullish on higher timeframes, but the price action is currently stalling below a critical resistance cluster, fueling volatility and intraday shakeouts.
Momentum 📈: The prevailing swing structure remains bullish, driven by robust mid/long-term trends; however, there is clear momentum fatigue with shallow corrections appearing on lower timeframes.
Key levels:
• Major resistances : 122,450–123,300 (primary pivot battle zone across daily/4H/12H), 119,812 (intermediate historic resistance now contested)
• Main supports : 119,812–118,050 (multi-TF pivotal demand zone), 114,967 (1D/4H pivot, also Weekly support)
• These zones are critical: breaking above 123,300 could spark a fast move toward 127k, while holding above 119,800/118,000 keeps the bullish structure intact.
Volumes: Normal to moderate on primary timeframes, but very high short-term spikes on 15min underline active volatility traps.
Multi-timeframe signals: Medium/long-term TFs (1D, 12H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H—all Up) confirm the bullish bias; however, the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator shifts to SELL on the 30min/15min, reinforcing near-term caution.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: “Neutral sell” on the broader trend, flipping to SELL at short-term extremes—underscoring the need to defend positions as volatility rises into resistance.
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Trading Playbook
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The strategic backdrop favors bullish setups as long as price action holds major support, but discipline and swift reaction are needed while Bitcoin hovers under vital resistance.
Global bias: “Neutral buy” as long as 119,812/118,000 holds; any solid break below 118,000 flips the swing outlook neutral or bearish.
Opportunities:
• Tactical buy on structured pullback into 119,812/118,050 – key swing entry zone.
• Conditional breakout trade above 123,300 – sets up an extension toward 127k, especially if shorts get squeezed.
• Defensive scalp only on volatility flushes and rapid reclaim above 120,156/119,812.
Risk zones / invalidations:
• Confirmed breakdown below 119,812 is the first warning sign—opens risk of a retest of 118,000 or deeper.
• Sustained loss of 118,000 = neutrality/bearishness resumes, opportunity for strategic selling may appear.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Accelerating global liquidity (US M2 surge, China credit) underpins the risk asset backdrop.
• Geopolitical easing (Ukraine truce, G7 signals) reduces systemic threats; tailwinds for risk markets.
• Looming short squeeze ($6B in shorts at 125k) could fuel explosive breakout moves if resistance breaks.
Action plan:
• Entry : Staggered buying into 119,812/118,050 or confirmed breakout above 123,300.
• Stop : Below 118,000 (key swing stop).
• TP1 : 122,450, TP2 : 123,300, TP3 : 127,000 short squeeze extension.
• R/R: Moderate to high; optimal if entered near support or confirmed clean break.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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Multi-timeframe analysis shows strong trend alignment on higher frames, contrasted by rising volatility and trap risk on the intraday scale.
1D/12H/6H/4H: Bullish structure and trend intact, with broad support at 119,812/118,050; strong resistance cluster at 122,450/123,300 preventing further upside for now. Each dip to support has triggered buyer defense and recovery.
2H/1H: Sideways consolidation at the upper range, above key supports. Corrections remain shallow unless 119,800/118,000 break.
30min/15min: Clear divergences—momentum shifts bearish, volume spikes, trap risk is high. These signals warn against chasing breakouts prematurely and demand patience.
The underlying theme: The pivotal zone between 118,000 (support) and 123,300 (resistance) is where momentum for the coming days will be defined—traders must monitor reaction closely rather than anticipate.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro and on-chain trends offer fundamentally bullish support for Bitcoin, although short-term volatility and positioning require active risk management.
Macro events:
• Global liquidity is on the rise (US M2, China credit), supporting higher valuations for risk assets.
• Market expectation for US Fed rate cuts, bullish macro calendar, and reduced credit spreads—all positive for risk-on sentiment.
• Easing geopolitics (Ukraine diplomacy, G7 moves) lowers the threat of sudden shocks, adding stability.
Bitcoin analysis:
• Strong institutional inflows and treasury allocations, growing support from large funds.
• Key short squeeze level at 125k—liquidation of $6B in shorts could drive a rapid extension if resistance is breached.
• Bitcoin dominance dropping below 60% hints at capital rotation into alts but can also revert quickly if the market overheats.
• Institutional custody solutions and secure insurance ramping up, supporting greater adoption.
On-chain data:
• Profitability among holders is very strong; minimal signs of forced selling or capitulation.
• No major signs of excessive euphoria; volatility implied to be low—a classic contrarian prelude to a volatility spike.
Expected impact: These drivers underpin the swing-long bias but demand precise execution and tactical caution around major resistance traps and volatility spikes.
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Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin remains in a mature uptrend but is stalling beneath heavy resistance, requiring patience and disciplined execution.
The global trend is bullish as long as 119,800/118,000 zone holds—these are structurally critical. The most relevant setup is a conditional breakout play above 123,300, targeting 127k if momentum and shorts align, but caution is needed due to heightened short-term trap risks. Macro tailwinds (liquidity surge, geopolitics improving) give deeper support but don’t remove the need for vigilance as intraday volatility remains acute.
Stay nimble: avoid chasing into resistance, wait for signals of real flow, and prepare for fast reversals near the key battle zones.
Bitcoin Uptrend Intact, Pullback First? 120.0k–119.8k is Key!__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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BTC is hovering near 120.6k after a clean reclaim above the 119.8k pivot, now pressing into the 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster. Trend is bullish, but we’re trading into resistance.
Momentum: 📈 Bullish, multi-timeframe HH/HL, yet approaching a dense 121k–122.3k supply.
Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/1D) : 121,000–121,500 • 122,318 (D) • 123,235 (240)
- Supports (1H/4H/1D) : 119,800 (720 pivot) • 118,500 (240) • 115,860 (240)
Volumes: Normal across most TFs; prior spikes accompanied the 119.8k breakout.
Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trending up toward 122.3k; 4H/2H high-base consolidation; 30m/15m locally overbought under 121k, favoring pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral Buy backdrop, but tilting Neutral Sell → Sell on the very short-term, slightly contradicting the bullish push into resistance.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: uptrend intact—prefer buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts until we get a daily close above 122,318 with volume.
Global bias: Buy bias (Neutral Buy) while 119.8k holds; key invalidation on a close below 119.8k.
Opportunities:
- Buy the dip at 120.0k–119.8k targeting 121.5k then 122.3k/123.2k.
- Bullish breakout on H4/D close > 122,318 toward 123,235 (let it run if flows expand).
- Tactical fade 120.9k–121.1k back to 120.0k if Risk On/Off stays in Sell on LTFs.
Risk zones / invalidations: Strong rejection at 122.3k plus a close < 119.8k = bull trap risk and range-back toward 118.5k; loss of 118.5k could open 115.9k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Spot ETF inflows remain positive and above new supply → supports dip-buying.
- China liquidity mixed, Euro CPI contained, no major macro shocks → technical breakout must be confirmed by volume.
- Rotation to ETH/Alts + slowing derivatives momentum → near-term cap risk on breakouts.
Action plan:
- Plan A (buy-the-dip): Entry 120.0k–119.8k / Stop < 119.6k / TP1 121.5k, TP2 122,318, TP3 123,235 • R/R ~2–3.
- Plan B (breakout): Entry on retest 122.35k–122.5k after H4/D close > 122,318 / Stop ~122.0k / TP1 123,235, TP2 let it run • R/R ~1.5–2.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs remain bullish while LTFs are stretched into resistance.
1D/12H/6H: HH/HL above 119.8k; H4/D close > 122,318 unlocks 123,235; look for volume expansion to validate extension.
4H/2H: High-base consolidation under 121k–122k; better R/R on pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k than chasing an immediate break.
30m/15m: Local overbought and Risk On/Off in Sell; higher odds of a pullback toward 120.0k/119.8k before any attempt above 122k.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is calm-to-supportive; ETF flows backstop BTC, but rotation to alts and slower derivatives momentum argue for caution on breakouts.
Macro events: China credit/liquidity mixed; Spain CPI contained (ECB pressure tempered); US deficit keeps the debasement/hedge narrative alive.
Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF inflows (+$65.9M) with IBIT buys > mined supply support demand; BTC dominance slipping (rotation to ETH/Alts) can cap near-term outperformance; futures momentum has cooled.
On-chain data: Risk-on but not euphoric; compressed IV and high alts OI increase sensitivity to surprises; STH resistance near ~127k as an upper on-chain area.
Expected impact: Constructive for dip-buys; demand confirmation (volume/flows) needed to validate a daily break above 122.3k.
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Key Takeaways
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An uptrend is probing a 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster with normal volumes and a mixed short-term Risk On/Off read.
- Trend: bullish 📈 while 119.8k holds.
- Top setup: buy-the-dip 120.0k–119.8k; only confirm continuation on a close above 122,318.
- Macro: ETF inflows positive, macro calm; rotation into alts may cap BTC near-term.
Stay patient: favor pullbacks and wait for an H4/D close with volume to “pay” the break above 122.3k. 👀
$200 soon - SOL weekly update August 12 - 18thFrom an Elliott Wave perspective, the scenario for Solana has been slightly adjusted from previous counts. Current price action suggests that SOL is already in an impulsive upward move, which aligns well with the broader correlation observed across the altcoin market. As with many other altcoins, the structure shows a completed 1–2 sequence at the Primary degree and another 1–2 sequence at the Intermediate degree. At the Minor degree, price is in the final stages of Wave 1, specifically in Minute Wave 5.
An alternative scenario — less likely but still possible — is that the move is actually a corrective structure, with the Minor degree currently forming Wave C. This would become more probable if price extends significantly beyond the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, as such behaviour would be atypical for a standard fifth wave.
From a liquidity standpoint, short- to medium-term bias points upward. The liquidity heatmap shows a large concentration of liquidity at the local high of Wave 3, as well as significant order clusters near the 1.0 extension target for the current Wave 5. However, substantial liquidity is also accumulating below current price, which will likely be targeted during the subsequent Wave 2 retracement.
Funding rates have shifted from slightly negative toward positive territory, and open interest is climbing — both signs of a stable and sustained upward move.
Macro conditions also support the current market tone. The latest CPI data came in at 2.7%, better than expected, boosting sentiment. As the FOMC meeting approaches, retail traders are increasingly positioning for a potential “altseason” — a dynamic that raises the probability of a sell-the-news event if expectations are overextended.
Given the current wave structure, liquidity positioning, and macro backdrop, the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level has been set as the primary target for the completion of this Minor Wave 5. This area aligns with heavy order clustering and fits the typical profile for a fifth wave termination before a corrective phase.
Do your own research — and trade safe.
BTC vs DXY: BTC is going for another topAs we can seen from the chart, BITGET:BTCUSDT and TVC:DXY has a reverse correlation. A bottom for DXY means a top for BTC. From 3 Months timeframe perspective, we can see that we are close to the top of Bitcoin, which is potentially happen in the middle of Q4 2025.
Mirroring alts - FET weekly update August 10 - 16thFetch.ai (FET) is advancing within a multi-degree Elliott Wave alignment that mirrors the structures seen across many other altcoins. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, a completed 1–2 structure suggests that Wave 3 is now underway; at the Intermediate degree, the same 1–2 formation implies another Wave 3; at the Minor degree, price is currently in Wave 1; and at the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3, which is likely to end inside the highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG).
Once this smaller Wave 3 completes, a short-lived Wave 4 pullback is expected, followed by Wave 5 to finish Minor Wave 1. A deeper retracement into the 0.5–0.764 Fibonacci zone would then be possible as part of Minor Wave 2 before the next sustained advance. The structure remains bullish as long as key support levels hold.
From a sentiment and liquidity standpoint, funding rates are positive, indicating a bias toward long positions. The liquidity heatmap shows only limited liquidity above current price, while there is more liquidity resting below — a configuration that could allow for a quick liquidity sweep before continuation.
This chart pattern is notably similar to many other altcoin structures right now, reflecting the high degree of correlation within the crypto market. If Bitcoin confirms its own bullish wave count, these aligned setups could trigger synchronized breakouts. Conversely, a BTC rejection could weigh on all correlated altcoins, including FET.
In the broader macroeconomic context, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 88,9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Markets often front-run such decisions, and this could act as a catalyst for impulsive Wave 3 rallies across crypto. However, heavily skewed bullish sentiment increases the risk of a “sell-the-news” event if traders over-leverage ahead of the announcement. Institutional accumulation likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to drive the next legs higher.
As long as structural support remains intact and the anticipated Wave 4–5 sequence plays out, FET appears well-positioned for continuation — in alignment with the bullish setups currently visible across much of the altcoin market.
Undecided. - SAND/SAN weekly update August 9 - 15thThe Sandbox (SAND) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, price is in Wave 3; at both the Primary and Intermediate degrees, it is also in Wave 3; and at the Minute degree, the market is completing a smaller Wave 3. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it would make sense for price to dip into the lower highlighted Fair Value Gap (FVG) before continuing higher, as this aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels. Even a quick wick into this zone would be sufficient to rebalance price before continuation.
Following this potential retracement, the structure anticipates a short Wave 4 followed by Wave 5, which is projected to terminate in the upper FVG marked on the chart. This interpretation fits well with the overall bullish macro structure. However, if Wave 4 were to drop below the top of Wave 1, the current count would be invalidated. A move below the start of Wave 1 would raise the probability that the current advance is part of a more complex corrective structure rather than a sustained impulse.
From a derivatives perspective, funding rates remain positive while open interest is stagnating, indicating steady but not accelerating long participation. The liquidity heatmap shows significant liquidity resting below the Wave 2 low, which could act as a magnet for a short-term sweep before continuation.
On a broader level, this setup aligns with the macroeconomic backdrop. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. Such expectations often lead to markets front-running the event, potentially fuelling impulsive Wave 3 rallies across the crypto sector. However, if bullish positioning becomes excessive, the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction or a liquidation event increases — particularly in assets like SAND, which are already in extended third waves. Institutional positioning likely occurred earlier in the cycle, leaving retail traders to provide the momentum for the next legs up.
As long as key support levels hold and the lower FVG provides the anticipated reaction, SAND remains well-positioned for a continued advance toward the 0.320–0.340 range, with multiple wave degrees supporting the bullish case.
Bitcoin: Swing Buy Opportunity on Pullback/Breakout__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Momentum : Market is showing bullish momentum 📈, consolidating at the top of its post-ATH range, with higher lows preserved and no excessive jargon.
Key Levels :
• Resistances (1D/4H/2H): 117,723 (240 pivot), 119,658 (W pivot), 119,863 (720 pivot), 123,182 (D pivot)
• Supports (1D/4H/2H): 115,903 (240 pivot), 114,708 (240 pivot), recent daily demand zone >112,000
Volumes : Generally normal volumes; moderate spikes on 1H/15m during resistance tests.
Multi-timeframe signals : Clear bullish structure on 1D to 2H; short-term weakness on 30m–15m, local bearish bias.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context : Neutral-buy bias on daily/HTF, but short-term sell signal on 30m–15m → local risk-off bias.
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Trading Playbook
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Global bias : Bullish as long as 115,903 (2H/4H support) holds on closing basis; invalidation below this level.
Opportunities :
• Buy on controlled pullback towards 116k–115,903 with LTF confirmation.
• Breakout long on close/retest above 117,723 targeting 119,658/119,863 then 123,182.
• Tactical short scalp on clean rejection from 117,723 if Risk On / Risk Off Indicator stays on Sell (LTF).
Risk/invalidation zones : Bullish invalidation below 115,903 (2H/4H close) exposes the 110k area.
Macro catalysts :
• Persistent geopolitical tensions & stablecoin regulatory headlines; volatility possible.
• Institutional inflows (ETF, Harvard) strengthen the setup, but no immediate technical macro trigger.
• Intermittent risk-off climate from external news.
Action plan :
• Entry: Long on reversal signal at 116k–115,903, OR confirmed breakout above 117,723.
• Stop: Below 115,903 (pullback) OR 117,043 (breakout).
• TP1: 117,723 / TP2: 119,658–119,863 / TP3: 123,182
• R/R: Aiming 2:1 or better; move stop to BE after TP1.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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1D/12H/6H/4H : Bullish price structure, higher lows, key support at 115,903; positive momentum, further move expected on clean breakout above 117,723.
2H/1H : Confirmed bullish flow, steady bid as long as 115,903–116k area holds; increased volume at resistance tests.
30m/15m : Notable short-term weakness, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is on Sell, possible fake-outs above 117,723; short setups possible.
Divergences : Daily bias is bullish, but short-term signals indicate local seller dominance—careful of traps around breakouts.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro events : Geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Middle East), US/EU economic divergence, stablecoin regulation uncertainty (US/China).
Bitcoin analysis : Institutional flows are strong (Harvard position, ETF inflows), 117.8k is the psychological breakout level for a melt-up, no significant profit-taking seen.
On-chain data : “Air gap” below ~116k, key operational support at 115,9k; no extreme outflows.
Expected impact : Technical bullish bias reinforced if supports hold, but macro risk warrants cautious stop placement.
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Key Takeaways
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Market remains broadly bullish with strong supports around 115,903 and high-probability setups on validated pullbacks or a clean breakout above 117,723. The prime setup is to buy controlled drops or confirmed breakouts with tight stops. Institutional activity and macro context broadly favor upside, but geopolitics require cautious management.
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Third-Tier action - MANA weekly update August 9 - 15thDecentraland (MANA) is currently advancing within a strongly aligned Elliott Wave structure. At the Cycle degree, the market is in Wave 1; at the Primary degree, it is in Wave 3; at the Intermediate degree, also in Wave 3; and at the Minor degree, in Wave 1. At the Minute degree, price is in the late stages of Wave 3. This smaller Wave 3 is approaching a bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could act as resistance and mark the short-term top of this wave. Interestingly, the projected target for Wave 5 also aligns with a higher-level bearish FVG, adding structural confluence to the broader setup.
While the overarching wave alignment remains bullish, there are a few elements to monitor closely. Funding rates are positive but leaning slightly toward the negative, suggesting a mild sentiment shift, while open interest continues to rise, indicating stronger market participation. However, the liquidity heatmap reveals a significant concentration of liquidity below the current price, which weighs against the immediate bullish continuation, as such liquidity often attracts short-term sweeps before the trend resumes.
Market psychology could also play a major role in the next move. With Ethereum currently rallying strongly, there is a plausible rotation scenario: once ETH reaches a key resistance level and slows down, capital may rotate into second- and third-tier altcoins like MANA, accelerating their upside moves. Such rotations often coincide with euphoric retail behaviour, which can amplify both gains and volatility.
From a macroeconomic perspective, this setup is further supported by expectations surrounding the upcoming September FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 88.9% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Markets tend to front-run such events, and this expectation could fuel bullish momentum into Wave 3 moves across the crypto sector. However, with sentiment leaning heavily bullish, there is also the risk of a “sell-the-news” reaction, especially if leveraged longs pile in too aggressively ahead of the announcement.
Institutional positioning appears to have taken place earlier in the cycle, as evidenced by order block formations near the end of prior corrective waves, leaving retail traders to drive the next leg higher. This dynamic often defines the acceleration phase of a third wave.
As long as key support levels hold and the structure remains intact, MANA’s multi-timeframe alignment suggests that the next impulsive rally could be substantial — though traders should remain mindful of the liquidity resting below, which could trigger a temporary shakeout before continuation.
BTC Breakout: 119,800 to clear, 123,218 in sight__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
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Momentum: 📊 Consolidation range below 119,800–123,218, primary trend still 📈 bullish; buyers defending 116,100–114,723.
Key levels (TF):
- Resistances: 117,800–118,600 (6H/4H supply); 119,800 (720 PH); 123,218 (D Pivot High).
- Supports: 116,100 (6H/2H); 115,720 (240 PH); 114,723 (D Pivot Low); 112,600 (240 PL); 111,980 / 98,200 (W Pivots).
Volumes: Normal across TF → no “Extreme Volumes” (need confirmation on breakouts).
Multi-timeframe signals: HTF 1D/12H/6H/4H = Up; 2H = Down; 30m ISPD = Sell (LTF divergence).
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: Neutral → no sector-wide directional bias.
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Trading Playbook
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Global bias : Slightly 📈 bullish above 115,720/114,723; swing invalidation on a close < 114,723.
Opportunities:
- Buy pullback 116,100–115,700 toward 117,800/118,600/119,800.
- Bullish breakout: acceptance 1D/12H > 119,800 → target 123,218.
- Tactical short: clean rejection 117,800–118,600 while 2H = Down and 30m ISPD = Sell.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- Intraday longs: close < 115,700.
- Swing longs: close < 114,723 (risk 112,600 → 111,980).
- Shorts: LTF close > 118,600; structural: acceptance > 119,800.
Macro catalysts (Twitter/News):
- US pro‑crypto tilt (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → sentiment tailwind.
- Softer USD (BOE hawkish cut, Fed pick) → positive for risk/BTC.
- US rates (30Y auction, yields) → a yield spike would weigh on breakouts.
Action plan:
- Pullback Buy: Entry 115,900; Stop 114,650; TP1 117,800, TP2 118,600, TP3 119,800 → R/R ~2.0–2.8.
- Breakout Setup: Enter on RP 119,800–119,400 after 1D/12H close > 119,800 + volume; Stop 118,500; TP1 121,800, TP2 123,200, TP3 (runner) → R/R ≥2.0.
- Tactical Short: Entry 118,200; Stop 118,700; TP1 116,600, TP2 116,100, TP3 115,700 → R/R ~1.6–2.5.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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1D/12H/6H/4H (Up): Bullish structure consolidating below 119,800; support cluster 115,720–114,723 holding; key setups = buy pullbacks + confirmed breakout > 119,800 toward 123,218.
2H (Down): Lower highs below 118,000; 117,800–118,600 supply favors tactical fades; needs flip > 118,600 to push 119,800.
1H/30m/15m (Up, with 30m ISPD = Sell): Sub‑range 116,100–117,900; buy scalps at 116,400/116,100; caution buying into 117,900–118,600 (rejection risk).
Key divergences: HTF Up vs 2H Down + 30m ISPD Sell → higher odds of false breaks below 118,600/119,800.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro events:
- US pro‑crypto stance (debanking review, retirement/PE/crypto access, Fed nominee) → better access/regulatory tone (Twitter sources).
- Gold tariffs/repricing narrative → reinforces “digital gold”.
- Softer USD and easing inflation impulses → support risk; watch long-end yields.
Bitcoin analysis:
- Technical: testing the upper bound of a rising wedge, momentum improving.
- Institutional/access: treasury/banking initiatives may support participation.
- Energy/valuation: Bitcoin Energy Value ~145,000 vs spot ~116,000 → implied discount.
On-chain data:
- Post‑ATH indecision; “air gap” 110,000–116,000.
- STH in profit ~70% → fresh demand needed.
- ETFs: ~−1,500 BTC outflow recently (risk if it persists).
- Funding <0.1% → moderate leverage, less immediate squeeze.
- On‑chain pivot ≈ 116,900 to reclaim; 119,800 critical for confirmation.
Expected impact:
- Friendlier macro + balanced on‑chain favor a cautiously bullish technical bias, but confirmation requires acceptance above 119,800 with volume.
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Key Takeaways
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- Overall bias: cautiously 📈 bullish in a range; buy dips at 116,100–115,700; swing invalidation below 114,723.
- Top setup: confirmed breakout > 119,800 with volume to target 123,218; otherwise fade 117,800–118,600.
- Macro: US pro‑crypto tone and softer USD support BTC, but monitor UST yields.
BTC – Breakout Loading?Bitcoin continues to respect its macro bullish trend (🟠), trading within a large ascending channel that has guided price action for over a year.
After breaking above the previous ATH 🟢, BTC entered a correction phase 🔻, retesting the green zone — a key structure now acting as support.
The bulls stepped back in, initiating a new impulse phase 🔵. Currently, BTC is consolidating within a small blue descending channel — forming a classic bullish flag 🏁 pattern.
⚠️ For the bulls to take over and trigger the next impulsive wave toward $140,000 🎯, we need to see a confirmed break above this small blue channel. This would signal trend continuation and open the door to the upper boundary of the macro channel.
✅ Key levels to watch:
- Support: ~$110,000 (green demand zone) 🟩
- Resistance: Top of the blue flag 🟦
- Target: $140,000 💰
A breakout from here could fuel the next major rally — stay sharp and follow the trend!
💬 What’s your bias here? Are you bullish or waiting for a deeper pullback?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr