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BTCUSD KEY LEVELS (READ CAPTION)hi trade's current price 115500 sherigul58: Bitcoin is currently trading between the support at 114,700 and resistance at 117,000. If buyers hold above support, price may extend toward the 119,000 target zone. A move below 112,500 (second zone) and especially under the 112,000 risk level could invite further bearish momentum sherigul58: Support: 114,700 Second Zone: 112,500 Resistance: 117,000 Target: 119,000 Risk Level: 112,000 don't forget to like comment and follow thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by teacherforexmarker
USDZAR - Forecast, Outlook and Market WatchHello fellow Market Watchers ☕ Today I'll take a top-view look at the USDZAR chart. And since I am in South Africa, this pair is of particular interest to me. Now recently, the US introduced a 10% baseline tariff on most imports and lifted metals tariffs to 25%. Additionally, citrus, nuts, grapes and wine have been subjected to 30% duties since Aug. 7. There is no doubt that in the short term, this will cause ripple effects throughout the economy but in the long run, South Africa will find new trading partners - this is how trade works. This will likely extend to Asian markets. The priority is to export more to China, where duty-free access has already been secured for five types of fruit (unsure which fruits these are). South Africa will continue to strengthen ties with other countries to lessen reliance on the US for exports. Therefore, this is merely a short term hurdle. From the monthly perspective, we see a clear peak. A double top marks the price where sellers are ready to dominate: Although we've had two bearish micro-cycles (lasting just over two years and a year respectively), the multiyear trend has been bullish - almost "up only" since August 2011. July US inflation cooled, so markets still expect the Fed to cut rates in September. Futures point to a strong chance of a 25 bps cut, and the dollar has lost some momentum. When rate-cut odds rise and inflation-adjusted US bond yields fall, higher-beta currencies like the rand often firm up. However on a bullish note for the Rand, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut the repo to 7.00% in July and said it aims at the bottom of the 3–6% target band, while June CPI printed 3.0%. This is optimistic news for the Rand, and further supports a decline on the chart. What to watch next • Fed path into September. Base case: a 25 bps cut. • DXY (the US dollar index). Softer DXY tends to help ZAR. • US real yields from the Treasury’s par real yield curve. Drifting lower is rand-friendly. • Powell at Jackson Hole. A tougher tone on inflation could cap rand gains. 10 Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security - Lower US real yields usually lift demand for higher-yielding EM assets, leading to Rand strengthening. DXY - A softer DXY = less broad USD strength, ZAR increases/strengthens Gold and Platinum - If these increase, that supports SA's exports and likely helps the Rand considering the export volume. It should be noted that platinum gains will be limited by the new metal tariff at 25% if exporting to the US . In 2023, South Africa exported approximately $16.2 billion worth of platinum globally. Of this, about $3.42 billion went to the US. That works out to roughly 21% of South Africa’s total platinum exports being destined for the U.S. I asked my friend GPT to put it in a table and got this helpful result: So to summarize: As of today (18 Aug 2025), markets still lean toward a Fed rate cut in September, with odds around the mid-80s, which has taken some heat out of the dollar and kept real Treasury yields anchored near ~1.9%—a mix that’s usually rand-friendly. Locally, SARB’s July move left the repo at 7.00% while June CPI printed 3.0%, so South Africa still offers positive real carry. Firm gold prices and subdued equity volatility also help sentiment. The main offset is trade policy risk, with the new 30% US tariff on many South African imports clouding the export outlook and current account. Net-net, if US data stay calm into Jackson Hole, the bias tilts to a softer USD against ZAR.
Short
by BlockTechEv
Bitcoin Dominance Hits Channel Floor – Altcoin Storm Incoming?Bitcoin dominance has been sliding within a well-structured descending channel since early August. Now, it’s touching the channel’s lower boundary — a level that has previously sparked strong reversals. A bounce from here could ignite a short-term uptrend in BTC dominance, targeting the channel’s midline and possibly its upper boundary. If this happens, capital is likely to rotate back into Bitcoin, applying pressure on altcoins and triggering a corrective phase in the broader altcoin market. Key Takeaway: Watch for bullish price action at the channel’s floor. A confirmed breakout in dominance could mark the start of an “altcoin cooldown” phase.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by CryptoPilot
3
PLTR 1D — When the tea is brewed and the handle’s in placePalantir’s daily chart is shaping up a textbook cup with handle pattern — one of the most reliable continuation setups in technical analysis. The cup base was formed over several months and transitioned into a consolidation phase, building a rectangle structure where smart money likely accumulated positions before a breakout. Now here’s the key: price has not only broken out — it’s settled above all major moving averages, including EMA 20/50/100/200 and MA 50/200. The breakout candle was supported by surging volume, signaling strong participation from institutional buyers. When all the averages start bending upwards, it's usually not by accident. The breakout above the $121 resistance zone unlocked a pathway toward a target at $187 , derived by projecting the height of the cup upward from the breakout level. This kind of structure, once confirmed, often fuels aggressive continuation — and this one’s got the setup locked in. From a fundamental perspective, Palantir is holding solid ground: strong earnings reports, expanding government and commercial contracts, and aggressive development in AI services. Institutional interest is rising steadily, and that momentum is visibly reflected in price action. To sum it up: price has launched cleanly out of the consolidation zone, pierced all critical MAs and EMAs, and continues to gain momentum. While the market sips its tea, this cup is boiling hot. Just don’t forget your stop loss — this is a trading desk, not a tea party. If you enjoy posts like this, drop a like, share it around, and let’s hear your thoughts below. It keeps ideas moving and the content flowing — free, sharp, and relevant.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by TotoshkaTrades
15
Gold Price Drops After Rally – What’s Next?Hello everyone, let's take a closer look at today's gold price Gold has unexpectedly dropped significantly today after a notable rise early last Friday. The market's initial concerns stemmed from rumors that the U.S. would impose an import tax on gold, which caused some panic. However, after the White House officially clarified its position and assured the market, the initial worries eased From a technical perspective, gold has broken through the upward trendline and is moving swiftly. According to Dow Theory, a short-term correction might occur soon, but if the price remains below key resistance levels, the decline could extend toward the Fibonacci 1.272 region, or even down to the Fibonacci 1.618 level if the downtrend persists. Do you agree with this outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Good luck and happy trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ryland_TradingFX
3
Gold Price Setup – Potential Rejection & Long ScenariosPrice is currently consolidating below the H4 Supply Zone after rejecting the ascending trendline twice. Two key scenarios are in focus: ✅ Scenario 1 – Deeper Pullback to Demand Zone A retracement into the 1H + 30M Order Block (OB) and liquidity zone near 3,341–3,355 (marked with $$$) could attract buyers. If bullish momentum confirms, look for a continuation toward 3,388 and possibly the upper trendline near 3,400+. ✅ Scenario 2 – Immediate Push Higher If price holds above the moving average and fails to break below 3,355, bulls could step in earlier, driving price back to test the trendline resistance. Breakout of the trendline could target the higher supply region. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: H4 Supply Zone (3,440 area) for potential reversal. 3,341 OB Zone for liquidity sweep and reaction. Trendline Resistance capping the upside.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Erin_Gold_Vault
XAUUSD H4 Update – The Battle Has Moved to 3350 “From deep demand to key supply. The next move is decisive.” 🔸 Sunday Plan Recap Price was falling aggressively into the HTF demand zone (3265–3240). The plan anticipated a bounce only if that deep zone held. Above price, major zones included: 3314 – mid-structure 3330–3345 – supply zone 3368–3380 – final retracement targets 🔸 What Changed? ✅ The deep demand zone worked — H4 CHoCH bullish was confirmed. ✅ Price climbed through 3285 and 3314, confirming a retracement leg. 🔥 Now, price sits at 3349.57, testing the same supply zone marked in Sunday’s plan (3330–3345). 🔸 Current H4 Structure 🔼 Short-term bias = bullish retracement 📍 Price = inside HTF premium zone 📈 EMAs aligned bullish (5/21/50), confirming short-term momentum 💡 RSI = approaching overbought ⚔️ Liquidity above 3355, trapped shorts below 3314 🧠 Today’s Battle Plan (August 1) 🔴 Sell Zone (live) – 3345 to 3355 Price just entered the key H4 supply zone. Watch for rejection signs: Bearish confirmation needed (e.g. M15/M30 CHoCH or engulfing) If confirmed → downside targets: 3314 → 3285 → 3265 High RR short only if structure confirms 🔵 Breakout Bullish Case If 3355 breaks with a clean body + HL at 3340 → bullish continuation active Next upside target: 3368 → 3380 🧭 Final Thoughts We’ve reached the exact decision zone from Sunday’s plan. The market will now reveal: retracement over... or breakout coming? Patience is key — this is a high RR zone, but only if structure reacts. 💬 Did you catch the move from deep demand? Or waiting for confirmation here at supply? 📈 Share your thoughts in the comments and let’s break it down together. 🔔 Follow for real-time market insights, sniper plans, and structured trading logic you can trust. ❤️ Like if you enjoy clean, actionable updates🚀🚀🚀 🔁 Share with traders who love structure over noise 📉 Price data from Trade Nation feed
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
Gold Crashes $100 After Hitting Monthly High | What’s Next?In this video, I break down everything that moved the price of gold last week, from the early-week rally toward $3,430 to the sharp midweek drop toward $3,325. We go beyond the surface, diving into what caused the reversal, and how I'm approaching next week’s market using a simple ascending channel on the 4-hour chart. With major events like the FOMC rate decision, U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, NFP and the August 1 tariff deadline all on the radar, this analysis will help you stay grounded and prepare for volatility. 👉 If you find this content valuable, don’t forget to Boost, Comment, and Subscribe for weekly market breakdowns. Disclaimer: Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading. #goldanalysis, #goldforecast, #xauusd, #goldpriceprediction, #technicalanalysis, #fundamentalanalysis, #tradingstrategy, #forextrader, #priceaction, #fomc, #usgdp, #pceinflation, #goldtrading, #forexeducation, #dollarvsgold, #tariffnews, #chartanalysis, #forexmentorship, #rebuildingthetraderwithin
OANDA:XAUUSD
by darcsherry
1
Gold Market Update: Major Support at and Supply atGold is recovering after a strong drop from the previous range high. Price is approaching a 4H Order Block near the 3300–3310 zone, which may act as a supply area. A minor liquidity zone has just been tapped, suggesting a potential short-term rejection. The major support lies at 3269, which sparked the recent bullish move. If price rejects from the OB zone, a pullback toward this support is likely. However, a clean break and hold above the OB may signal further upside. 📌 Key Levels: Supply Zone: 3300–3310 Support: 3269 🧠 Wait for clear confirmation before executing trades.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Erin_Gold_Vault
XAUUSD Technical Analysis – Strong Bullish Move Expected XAUUSD Technical Analysis – Strong Bullish Move Expected from Support Zone Date: July 29, 2025 Chart Type: Price Action | Smart Money Concept (SMC) | Volume Profile 🧠 Educational Breakdown: 1. Strong Support Zone (Demand Area): Price has entered a clearly marked strong support zone around $3,270 - $3,292. This zone has previously acted as a major demand level, where buyers stepped in to reverse bearish pressure. High volume node from the Volume Profile on the left confirms significant historical interest in this price region. 2. BOS – Break of Structure: Multiple Break of Structures (BOS) throughout the uptrend confirm bullish market intent. The recent decline appears corrective, not impulsive, suggesting a potential bullish continuation. 3. Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG): A Bullish FVG is visible just above current price, acting as a magnet for price action. This imbalance is often targeted before further market movement, supporting the idea of an upcoming bullish move. 4. Liquidity Grab Setup: Price dipped into the support area likely to sweep liquidity (stop losses) before a reversal. This is a common Smart Money trap, where institutional players grab liquidity before moving the market in the intended direction. 5. Target Zone: A clear target is set around $3,418, aligning with previous highs and potential Buy-Side Liquidity. The projected move represents a clean higher high, following the higher low formed at the support zone. Confirmation: Wait for bullish engulfing or displacement candle on lower timeframe (M15-H1). Volume Support: Look for rising volume during the reversal to confirm smart money participation. 📘 Conclusion: Gold (XAUUSD) is showing a textbook bullish reversal setup from a high-demand zone. With strong structural support, fair value gap targeting, and buy-side liquidity above, the setup favors bullish continuation toward $3,418.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mentor_Michael03
Institutional Footprint Detected Gold Hits FVG + Breaker Block.GOLD has now entered a significant confluence zone, aligning with both a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a breaker block areas commonly respected by institutional algorithms. In the process, it has also swept sell-side liquidity resting below recent lows, which often serves as fuel for a reversal. This combination of technical factors suggests a high-probability scenario for a bullish bounce from this region. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the marked Equal Relative Liquidity (ERL) zone for additional confirmation before executing any trades. Always conduct your own analysis (DYOR) and manage risk accordingly.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TradeCraft_FX
XAUUSD Trade Idea - 30m Structure with 4H ConfluenceCurrently, price is trading below the 4H descending trendline, respecting bearish structure on lower timeframe (30m). ✅ 1H Order Block (OB) marked between 3335-3340 remains a strong demand zone where price can bounce break the trendline to sweep liquidity above around 3377 to form bullish continuation. 📌 Scenarios I'm Watching: Short-term rejection from the 4H trendline. Potential reversal towards 1H OB. Bullish reaction from OB could trigger a breakout above the 4H trendline. Final upside target remains at the liquidity pool around 3377 zone ($$$). 🟣 Overall Bias: Bullish after liquidity sweep. Watching for bullish confirmation at OB before executing buys.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Erin_Gold_Vault
1
GOLD (GC) Weekly Recap & Game Plan 20/07/2025🪙 GOLD (GC) Weekly Recap & Game Plan 📊 Market Context: Price is currently forming an accumulation pattern. The purple zone marks a key weekly demand zone, and I expect a potential bounce from that level. I'm closely watching for trendline deviations to determine the directional bias. 🎯 Game Plan: If price drops below the trendline and bounces from the weekly demand, I’ll look for longs targeting the bearish trendline. If price taps the bearish trendline and shows clear rejection, I’ll look for shorts targeting the bullish trendline. I'll wait for LTF confirmations before entering any position. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment Market Context: ES continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength. We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH). 🎯 Game Plan: I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment. Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
NQ Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025NQ Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment Market Context: NQ continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength. We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH). 🎯 Game Plan: I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment. Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
GOLD FULL UPDATE – July 15, 2025 | Post-CPI TrapPost-CPI Flip Zone Battle Hello dear traders 💛 Today has been one of those heavy CPI days — full of volatility, sweeps, and doubt. But if we read it structurally and stop chasing candles, everything makes sense. Let’s break it all down step by step, clearly and human-like. Current Price: 3330 Bias: Short-term bearish, reactive bounce underway Focus Zone: 3319–3320 liquidity sweep + key decision structure unfolding 🔹 Macro Context: CPI came in slightly hot year-over-year (2.7% vs 2.6%) while monthly stayed in-line at 0.3%. That gave the dollar a short-lived boost, and gold reacted exactly how institutions love to play it — sweeping liquidity under 3320, then pausing. Not falling, not flying. Just... thinking. That reaction matters. Why? Because it shows us indecision. It tells us that gold isn’t ready to break down fully yet, and every aggressive move today was part of a calculated shakeout. 🔹 Daily Structure: Gold is still stuck below the premium supply zone of 3356–3380. Every attempt to rally there for the past few weeks has failed — including today. The discount demand area between 3280–3240 is still intact and untouched. So what does this mean? We are in a macro-range, and price is simply rotating between key structural edges. 🔹 H4 View: The rejection from CPI at 3355–3365 created a micro CHoCH, signaling the bullish leg is now broken. After the 3345 fail, price dropped to 3320 — but it hasn’t tapped the full H4 demand at 3310–3300. H4 EMAs are tilting down, showing pressure. This isn’t a breakout. It’s a correction inside a larger range. 🔸 Key H4 Supply Zones: 3345–3355: liquidity reaction during CPI 3365–3375: untested OB + remaining buy-side liquidity 🔸 Key H4 Demand Zones: 3310–3300: mitigation zone from the CHoCH 3282–3270: deep discount and bullish continuation zone if current fails Structure-wise: We are in a correction, not a clean uptrend. That’s why every bullish attempt fails unless confirmed. 🔹 H1 Real Structure This is where things got tricky today. Price formed a bullish BOS back on July 14, when we first pushed into 3370. That was the start of the bullish leg. But today, we revisited the origin of that BOS, right near 3320. This is a sensitive zone. If it holds → it’s still a retracement. If it breaks → we lose the bullish structure and shift full bearish. So far, price touched 3320, bounced weakly, but has not printed a bullish BOS again. 🔸 H1 Zones of Interest: Supply above: 3340–3345: micro reaction zone 3355–3365: CPI origin rejection 3370–3375: final inducement Demand below: 3310–3300: current flip test 3282–3270: if this breaks, bias flips bearish Right now, we are between zones. Price is undecided. RSI is oversold, yes — but that alone is never a reason to buy. We need structure. We need BOS. 🔻 So… What’s the Truth Right Now? ✅ If 3310–3300 holds and price builds BOS on M15 → a clean long opportunity develops ❌ If 3310 breaks, and we lose 3300, structure fully shifts and opens downside to 3280–3270 On the upside: Only look for rejections from 3355–3365 and 3370–3375 Anything inside 3325–3340 is noise. No structure, no clean RR. Final Thoughts: Today’s move was not random. It was a classic CPI trap: induce longs early, trap shorts late, and leave everyone confused in the middle. But we don’t trade confusion — we wait for structure to align with the zone. If M15 or H1 prints a BOS from demand, that’s your green light. If price collapses under 3300, flip your bias. The chart already told you it wants lower. No predictions. Just real reaction. — 📣 If you like clear and simple plans, please like, comment, and follow. Stay focused. Structure always wins. 📢 Disclosure: This analysis was created using TradingView charts through my Trade Nation broker integration. As part of Trade Nation’s partner program, I may receive compensation for educational content shared using their tools. — With clarity, GoldFxMinds
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
2
Trend Line Tested Twice Is AUD/USD Ready to Rally?📈 AUD/USD Market Insight – Potential Bullish Breakout Ahead? The AUD/USD pair has respected a key trend line, bouncing off it for the second time — a sign of potential strength. If the price revisits and successfully retests this trend line, we could see a bullish momentum (a pump) play out. On the flip side, if the pair maintains its current trajectory without pulling back, focus shifts to the 0.65415–0.65455 resistance zone. A clean breakout above this range could open the doors for a move higher — potentially targeting swing highs and key liquidity zones. 🚀 Watch closely — the next move could be significant. 🔎 Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research). This is not financial advice.
Long
by Peter_Wade
Eyes on 1.16300: EUR/USD Prepares for the Next Move.📉 EUR/USD Technical 📈 The pair has broken a strong support level and is now finding footing around 1.15970, forming a fresh bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) at this zone. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving within a bearish FVG. Here's what to watch next: 🔻 If the market dips from here, we could see a reversal from the lower edge of this FVG. 🔼 But if it holds and pushes higher, breaking above 1.16300 — the CE (Continuity Equation) level of the bearish FVG — that could unlock further bullish momentum. 🚨 Key Levels to Watch: Support: 1.15970 Resistance/Breakout Zone: 1.16300 📊 Stay alert — price action at these levels could define the next move. 👉 DYOR – Do Your Own Research 📌 Not financial advice.
by Peter_Wade
Gold has bounced back after tapping into the Fair Value Gap.📈 Gold Market Daily Outlook 💰 Gold has bounced back after tapping into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and clearing liquidity below recent lows. 🔥 Price is now heading into a key bearish FVG zone on the 4H chart. 📊 Key Level to Watch: If $3339 breaks with strong bullish momentum, we could see a further push towards $3350 and beyond. ⚠️ Reminder: This is not financial advice — always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
Gold just played an interesting game on the 4-hour chart!🚨 GOLD Technical Outlook – 4H Chart Insight! 🕵️‍♂️✨ 📉 First, we spotted a Bearish Engulfing pattern that created a strong Sell Zone, signaling downward pressure. But guess what? The market wasn't ready to give up just yet… 📈 From the lower end, a powerful Bullish Engulfing stepped in like a hero, offering solid support and pushing the market back up! Now here's where it gets exciting: 🔥 Gold has formed another bullish engulfing pattern, and the price is once again knocking on the door of that Sell Zone. 🤔 What's next? A rejection from this sell zone could trigger another drop 📉 But keep an eye on the overlapping support zone below — if price revisits and holds there, we could see a bullish bounce toward the upside again! 🚀 📌 Key takeaway: We’re at a decision point. The next move could be explosive — up or down. Stay sharp! 🔍 ⚠️ DYOR – Do Your Own Research! 🚫 This is not financial advice — just a trader's perspective.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Peter_Wade
Gold Analysis Bullish Breakout | Trendline & OB Setup📈 Gold Analysis We are currently seeing price action within a descending channel, testing key support at the M30 OB (Order Block). The price is pushing higher after bouncing off the support level, and the trendlines suggest a potential breakout to the upside. 💡 Key Levels: Support Zone: 3326 Resistance Zone: 3342 The market is primed for a possible rally, indicated by the upward momentum and price breaking out above the trendline. Watch for confirmation as we approach the liquidity level for further bullish movement. ⚡ Trade Idea: Look for a long entry if price closes above the trendline for a continuation towards the next resistance.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Erin_Gold_Vault
1
Gold To The Basement? Week Ahead with Bearish Bias by PhoenixFX🌟 Welcome to Phoenix FX’s Intraday Pulse! 🌟 Hello, Phoenix FX family! 👋 I’m thrilled you’ve joined us for today’s TradingView chart breakdown. Our focus? Intraday opportunities—spotting those high-probability setups you can enter, manage, and leave to run whilst you concentrate on the things you love doing. Here’s what you’ll find in this analysis: Key Levels & Zones: Support, resistance, and Fair Value Gaps that matter on the smaller timeframes. Price-Action Clues: Exact candlestick patterns and momentum signals to watch for your next entry. Trade Triggers & Targets: Clear criteria for when to get in, where to take profits, and how to manage your risk. Whether you’re hunting quick scalps or tactical swing moves, our goal is simple: help you trade with confidence, clarity, and community support. Got a different view or a fresh idea? Drop it in the comments—after all, “each one, teach one.” 😉 Let’s dive into the charts and make today’s market moves count! 🚀📈 Donald Trump’s presidency continues to exert outsized influence on gold through three main channels: trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus (and resulting deficits), and shifts in safe-haven demand. Here’s how each factor has played out—and what it could mean for gold going forward: 1. Trade-War Uncertainty What’s Happening: The Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs—including recent 25% duties on goods from Japan and South Korea—has periodically roiled markets and driven investors into gold as a safe haven. On July 7, gold pared losses after tariff news, as traders sought refuge despite a firm dollar. Looking Ahead: If further tariff escalations or retaliations emerge, expect renewed spikes in gold. Conversely, any de-escalation or trade-deal breakthroughs could sap that safe-haven bid. 2. Fiscal Stimulus & Deficits What’s Happening: Senate Republicans recently passed a Trump-backed tax‐and‐spending package projected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit. Larger deficits—especially when financed by the Fed—tend to stoke inflation expectations, which bolsters gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Looking Ahead: Continued large-scale stimulus or fresh tax cuts without offsetting revenue measures could keep real yields low (or negative), a classic tailwind for gold. 3. Safe-Haven Flows & Investor Positioning What’s Happening: Despite peaking at record highs earlier this year, gold remains up roughly 30% since November, driven largely by investor fears around Trump’s policy unpredictability and geopolitical tensions. Looking Ahead: Should Trump-era uncertainty persist—whether around trade, foreign policy, or domestic turmoil—gold is likely to retain its status as a portfolio diversifier and crisis hedge. A sustained drop in U.S. real rates or fresh bouts of market volatility would reinforce that trend. 🎯 Outlook Summary Bullish Drivers: Ongoing trade-war rhetoric, larger deficits, and any new geopolitical flashpoints. Bearish Risks: Clear resolution of major trade disputes, a pivot by the Fed toward earlier rate cuts (reducing real‐rate support for gold), or diminished investor fear. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ PhoenixFX price action analysis based on the Daily time frame 🔴 Primary Resistance (Daily) Zone: $3,348 – $3,400 Why It Matters: Multiple daily closes have stalled here, leaving a clear Fair-Value Gap (dashed purple). Sellers are likely to defend this range until we see a decisive daily close above $3,400. 📉 Bearish Bias – Short Setups Short at Resistance Entry: Bearish daily reversal candle (engulfing, pin-bar) in $3,348–$3,400 Targets: TP1: $3,290 (50% of Primary Buy Zone) TP2: $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low) TP3: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone high) Stop-Loss: Above $3,420 Breakdown Short Trigger: Daily close below $3,250 (Primary Buy Zone low) Entry: On the open of the next daily candle after close below $3,250 Targets: TP1: $3,172 (Secondary Buy Zone) TP2: $3,026 (Final Buy Zone 50% level) Stop-Loss: Above $3,290 🔵 Potential Long Opportunities Defensive Long (Aggressive) Entry: Bullish daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 Targets: TP1: $3,348 (short-term resistance) TP2: $3,400 (key resistance) Stop-Loss: Below $3,230 Trend-Reversal Long (Ultra-Conservative) Trigger: Daily close above $3,400 Entry: Open of the next daily candle after the close above $3,400 Targets: TP1: $3,450 TP2: $3,500+ Stop-Loss: Below $3,360 📊 Week-Ahead Scenarios Bearish Scenario (High Probability): Price remains capped under $3,400. Look for a bearish signal in $3,348–$3,400 to initiate shorts. A break below $3,250 extends the move into deeper demand zones ($3,172 → $3,026). Bullish Counter-Trend (Lower Probability): Strong daily rejection candle in $3,250–$3,290 could spark a relief rally. Short-term longs can target $3,348 and $3,400—ideal for quick swing trades. Only a sustained daily close above $3,400 shifts the bias back to the upside. Just a Heads-Up: This is my take on the charts—not gospel, not financial advice, and definitely not a crystal ball 🔮. Trading is part skill, part patience, and part “what just happened?” 😅 We all see things a little differently, and that’s the beauty of it. So if you’ve got a hot take, wild theory, or just want to drop some chart wisdom—hit the comments! Let’s grow, learn, and laugh through the madness together. 🚀📈 Each one, teach one. — Phoenix FX Team 🔥🦅
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by PFXteam