USDJPY Short. 50% pullback50% PB from the low of the prior bull trend. Small Double Top near that point. Expecting a scalp here.
Measuredmove
A Minor Reversal Setup On USOIL USOIL opened with a massive gap that broke through some resistance lines outlined in the earlier posts. Currently the market participants are seemingly waiting for a pullback to enter limit buys and potentially targeting couple of hundred ticks. This chart shows possible price movements during the next couple of weeks. Limit buy orders around 5225, the top of the previous pullback range, with wider stops seem reasonable for now. It is recommended to reduce the position size to 1/2 and add as the position moves into green territory.
SPY Weekly 30 Years overall Look #BigPicture #MeasuredmoveThis is a carefully crafted study! I have demonstrated the angles that we will likely see in the future based on what we have seen in the past. Details in the chart... Hope to get 1K views on this
USDCAD Short. Expecting a 50% level breakoutThe price is right at the 50% pullback from the previous leg down. Wide bear channel and we are on the bottom of it. I`m expecting a breakout of the current micro double top and higher. 40% probable.
Weekly Outlook On DXYDXY got picked up at 150 day EMA. Odds are there will be a testing of that gap area around 98 if bulls manage to close above the D point. Bears see a larger high 2 double top sell setup, there's a 61.80% reaction on last bear leg. Though at this point there is no clear indication of a breakdown in lower timeframes, staying tuned for further tells might be the best option.
Follow Up On EURUSD DailyEURUSD demonstrated a sharp movement higher after touching the 50% retracement of its first setup bull leg. It is reasonable to be taking profit around the 61.80% area if one's short or having limit buy orders if one's looking for a pullback trend continuation play. At this point, we've had a measured move lower, some call it a bear trap, and a sharp reversal higher into the previous trading range. In terms of probability, reaching the top of the trading range around 1.1875 seems has better odds.
ETH - Short Target Is $200Expecting more of the same from ETH. This does not look like a reversal pattern. If it breaks the triangle the measured move is to $200.
BTC - Bear Flag / Rising Wedge post MAJOR DumpBears appear to be maintaining full control after the extremely powerful dump. Muh 6k bottom is in more danger now than ever. If we don't see heavy bull volume soon I expect bears to resolve this pattern to the downside. My bottom target before a true bounce is at 5250. Target comes from the measured move of the bearflag and the weekly 100 MA.
EURCAD opportunity to ride the bearish trend?If you're looking to get a piece of the nearly 800-pip sell-off from the JUN-2018 swing high, then we might have an opportunity soon as the price hits a horizontal resistance level at 1.5042 - 1.5120 region. Looking to take this trade only if we see a strong bearish price action at the aforementioned price levels or thereabouts.
OIL Buy to Extenstion Level & Measured Move Break (Daily)Channel line represents key resistance area with pricing holding at that level.
Possible scenarios:
Target 1 represents 1.272 extension which coincides with lower pivot high
Target 2 represent measured move break of prior trading range which also coincided with highest high
S/L: Around 10 pips below wick of strongest bear candle @65.54
T/P: At pivot highs and extension levels @72.56 & @74.04
USDCAD Sell - Ride Breakout to key confluence areaTarget coincides with 1.618 extension levels from prior pivot highs, bottom line of bear trading range and measured move break from upper trading range.
Risk/Reward = 1:3
Sell GOLD From Resistance Area & Channel TopYou can either wait for gold to reach the top of the channel to initiate sell position or for a strong bearish signal from resistance area shown - indicating a shift of the market to the bears. Target is previous low which coincides with measured move of prior trading range break and midline of the channel.
Risk/Reward 1:2.5
Dollar Index Overview and EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY Warning: Most of the readers may find this article unnecessary and boring. We prepared this analysis for the traders who like to have a plan and view on their trading activity.
In this analysis, we want to take a look at the medium, long-term roadmap of the USD, which follows the winds of FED’s rate hikes in parallel with the recovery of economic data in the US.
There are six components in the Dollar Index basket:
EUR WEIGHT 0.576 JPY WEIGHT 0.136 GBP WEIGHT 0.119 CAD WEIGHT 0.091 SEK WEIGHT 0.042 CHF WEIGHT 0.036
EURO: Dovish ECB and no rate hikes earlier than the first quarter of 2019.
STERLING: Brexit uncertainties and Carney who was unable to convince the market of the continued interest rate hikes despite the 25bp rate hike from the BOE.
YEN: The BOJ, which reduces its growth forecasts and 2020 inflation forecasts
So, three main components of the basket do not give positive signals.
Technically:
Weekly Chart:
After the decline that started with the 2008 crisis, DXY completed base formation and started to move up. At Fibo 61.8, completed the correction and continue to rise.
The Measured Move Up formation will be completed with the breakout of 103.90 and in this case, we can speak much higher levels in the dollar index.
Daily Chart:
The inverse SHS pattern formation is remarkable and I expect the increase in the dollar index to accelerate with the breaking of 95.50 resistance.
On the 4 Hours chart, we see an ascending triangle formation, and formation will be completed by the breakout of 95.50 resistance.
Conclusion:
Although DXY is stuck in a triangle and it needs new catalysts to go higher, longterm or midterm, it gives the signals of higher levels after the consolidation.
After the possible breakout of 95.50, we expect the index to meet 96, 96.50, 99.20 and the target of the formation 102.40
When 103.90 is broken, the scenario will completely change.
Shortly; despite Trump tweets, trade wars and upcoming US elections, as it’s been said, “Dollar is still the King”
Sell EURGBP To 61.8 Fib ZoneChannel breakout and retouch plus measured move of prior channels indicates target level at 61.8 fib level.
Also, watch price once it reaches that area for a potential rebound.
USOIL Corrected 38.2% On Higher TFsUSOIL just saw the anticipated correction to 38.2 FIB level of its impulse leg. The previous setup leg fading trade is closed and building long positions from here seems reasonable. However, theres a possibility that it'll see another round of selling that can potentially take it down to the 61.8% FIB level around 6805. Judging from previous experience with oil, corrections like this are bought pretty quickly, so monitoring V type of price action on higher TFs can provide additional information.
BTC BOTTOM PICKERSi'd wait for a bit of confirmation, and buy a retrace
downside target still 3800 to 3294
Short Setup USOILCurrently USOIL is testing upper MLH of inside fork as well as the lower 0.5 of regular fork based on pivots that were formed later. An inflow of supply at this level is expected. Selling short 6635 with 1.8*ATR stops and looking for 2R-3R targets below is the plan.
swing short emini sp500, small risk for potential nice run downCheck the chart, completed ab=cd, gartley sell, larger ab=cd down
A Potential 2618 Sell PatternUSOIL rebounded from a second leg down from its top. The minor trend still remains down but a mean reversion pullback formation is taking place. Higher TFs show a great entry level for swing buyers. Being almost at the 150 day moving average and the overextended state of this market being normalised, it is probable that some demand will be attracted here. The price currently is retreating after reaching the 0.382 fib retracement of previous bear leg and potentially could reach 0.618. It is around these levels that the market will show its hand on whether it will be going for the recent highs again or continue with the down trend.
Gold Potential Long OpportunityGold wants higher but bears are giving a good fight here. The minor trend is down and 0.236 of fib extension of the last leg down is clearly showing signs of resistance around the level of 1310. This long set up is essentially a counter trend setup which is not recommended usually but given the current circumstance, it might work out fine. Failing around this area, will ultimately lead to lower price around 1270, so tight stops are necessary.
USOIL Bears Are Back With VengeanceMy previous USOIL trade setup failed dramatically. Losing trades are regarded as a business expenditure once risk management is set up properly. It seems USOIL is going through the long-awaited pullback to bring this market back to normal state form being way too overextended. I anticipate bears will try to take this down to around 6750 where they will potentially take profits en masse, thus attracting trend continuation players. It seems reasonable to monitor that area for potential pullback long entries with $1.75k risk and $5k return per lot. This is a lower probability setup with exceptional R:R - worth a try.
APPLE Looking For A PullbackApple went for the measured move after extended pullback consolidation. Achieving measured moves is usually followed by another round of pullback consolidation . Though the trend is up, short sellers can also make money as the price action shows a broad channel up. Though short selling in uptrends is a risky business, it seems reasonable to sell short around closing price with stops slightly higher than the measured move's high and look for 2R-3R targets . Probability is lower but R:R is decent - worth a try.
BTC/USD Looking For Final Leg DownBTC/USD has been trading in a downtrend these last days. I am expecting another push down before buyers start accumulating around 1/3rd of its highest selling price. Entering short as close as possible to $8600 with stops above $8800 and looking for 2R/3R targets around $8000-$7600 seems reasonable.
