Will gold prices continue to rise on September 8th?
I. Fundamental Analysis
The release of the US non-farm payroll data for August, released on Friday (September 5th), caused a significant market turmoil and provided strong fundamental momentum for gold's rise.
The data was extremely weak: only 22,000 new non-farm payrolls were added, far below the expected 75,000. More notably, the June data was significantly revised downward to -13,000, indicating that the labor market's weakness is not a fluke but rather a trend of stalling. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, further confirming that the momentum of the US economy is slowing down.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut have sharply increased: Such weak data has significantly strengthened market bets on a Fed rate cut. Currently, the market generally believes a September rate cut is a foregone conclusion, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut approaching 100%, and even discussions of a 50 basis point cut are emerging. This strong expectation of easing is the core driver of gold prices.
Potential Risks and Uncertainties: While the prospect of a rate cut is positive, investors should remain vigilant to potential uncertainties. Inflationary pressures have not yet been fully overcome. If the CPI data released next week unexpectedly rises, it could constrain the Fed's easing efforts. Furthermore, the outlook for the US election and related tariff rhetoric could create new inflationary uncertainties, limiting gold's short-term upside potential.
Fundamental Conclusion: The non-farm payroll data has solidified strong market expectations for a rate cut, creating an overall environment that is extremely bullish for gold. Any weak or dovish economic data would boost gold prices, while an unexpected rebound in inflation could trigger short-term volatility.
II. Technical Analysis
Trend Positioning: Gold is currently in a strong, unilateral upward trend, with the overall technical structure intact and targeting all-time highs.
Key Support (Long-Term Support):
The 5-day moving average has now moved up to the 3545-3550 area. This is the first key support level maintaining the extremely strong short-term trend. As long as gold prices close above this moving average, the upward trend will remain intact. Even if there is a false move to break down this position during the trading session (to lure a short), there is no need to panic as long as the price can be recovered in the end.
4-Hour Bollinger Band Middle Line: Currently moving up to around 3555. This level is the watershed between short-term bullish and bearish strength. If the middle line holds, prices will maintain a relatively strong upward trend. A break below it could trigger a deeper correction, but this will provide a better opportunity to "get on board" for further gains.
Key Resistance:
The upper short-term target resistance level is 3600-3610, a key area to overcome in the near term. A break above will open up further upside potential.
Technical Conclusion: The technical pattern resonates with the fundamentals, indicating a clear bullish trend. Operationally, the key strategy should be to follow the trend, focusing on looking for opportunities to buy at low levels.
III. Trading Strategy for Next Week
Key Strategy: Focus on buying on dips to lows, and be cautious about rallies to higher levels.
Long Strategy (Main Strategy):
Ideal Long Range: 3560-3570. If gold prices pull back into this range and show signs of stabilization (such as a pin bar or bullish engulfing candlestick on the 4-hour chart), this could be considered a good dip-buying opportunity.
Aggressive long position: around 3555 (4-hour middle candlestick). As long as this support holds, it can be considered an entry point during a strong rally.
Stop-loss: Recommended stop-loss: Below key support, around 3540.
Targets: First target: 3600; second target: 3610 or above.
Short strategy (secondary strategy):
Only when gold prices first rebound to the strong resistance zone of 3600-3610 and show clear signs of resistance (such as a long upper shadow or bearish engulfing candlestick), consider a short-term short position with a small position, entering and exiting quickly to capitalize on a technical pullback.
Remember: Shorting against the trend is risky, so strictly control your position size and stop-loss (place the stop-loss above 3615). The core strategy remains to go long with the trend.
Risk Warning: Pay close attention to next week's US CPI data, as its results could trigger a market repricing of the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, causing significant gold price fluctuations. Investors are advised to manage their positions prudently and exercise effective risk control.
