GOLD LONG IDEA MARKET STRUCTURE CHANGEgold futures were on a full sell off due to ongoing global turbulence in the month of June macro news is there to show the bigger picture but price tells the full story
imbalance was filled and the week opened with a bearish candle closing above 3,250 COMEX:GC1! price range now it is time to see It play out to the buyside for the precious metal
Metals
XAUUSD I Trade Update Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** XAUUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Internal and external liquidity Here's another mechanical lesson for you.
In my last post I covered a mechanical technique to identify swing ranges. Rule-based, simple and repeatable.
In this post, I want to share another little technique, again part of the mechanical series. But this time I want to talk about liquidity.
Most traders talk about liquidity, they might even have a grasp of what it is. But most do not know how liquidity forms the sentiment and how that creates a type of algo for the market.
You might have heard of Elliott wave theory. There is a saying along the lines of "you ask 10 Elliott traders for their count and you get 11 answers".
But the point is here, when you simplify the concept, it's clear to see that sentiment caused by liquidity swings is what causes a repeatable pattern in the market.
Let's take the idea of the ranges from my last post.
Now after a fair amount of accumulation, this level becomes "defended" - the price will gradually move up until old short stop losses are tagged and new long entries are entered into.
This allows the institutional players to open up their orders without setting off the alarm bells.
Price then comes back from external liquidity to find internal liquidity (more on this in a later post).
But then it looks for the next fresh highs.
As the highs are put in, we can use the range technique to move our range to the new area as seen in the image above.
Next we will be looking for an internal move, not just internal to the range, but a fractal move on the smaller timeframe that drives the pullback down. See this in blue.
The logic here is simple; on the smaller timeframes we have witnessed an accumulation at the 2 region and as we spike up for 3; we will witness a distribution on the smaller timeframes.
Wyckoff called this the accumulation, followed by a mark-up and then the distribution and a mark-down.
It is this pattern, over and over again that leads to this type of structure.
This will then be re-branded by various analysts who will call it things like a head and shoulders, smart money will see a change of character and a retest before breaking the structure.
This is all the same thing - just a different naming convention.
Again, I hope this helps some of you out there!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GOLD - Price can grow to resistance line of wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price bounced from $3390 level and declined, but soon turned back and even entered to resistance area.
After this, the price dropped from this area and then started to grow inside the wedge, where it at once made an impulse up.
Price reached $3390 level one more time and broke it, after which it continued to grow to the resistance line of the wedge.
When it reached this line, price turned around and in a short time declined below $3390 level, breaking and then made a retest.
Later, Gold broke $3300 level and fell to the support line of the wedge, after which it rose to the resistance area.
Now I expect that Gold can make a correction to almost support line and then bounce up to $3320 resistance line of the wedge.
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XAUUSD – June 30, 2025: Trade Strategy Right Now – Focus on SellGold OANDA:XAUUSD has been recovering slightly toward the 3,282 USD zone, but macroeconomic headwinds remain strong:
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY remains above 106.3 – the highest level in a month – making gold less attractive due to increased opportunity cost.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain firm around 4.35%, reflecting market expectations that the Fed will maintain tight monetary policy.
- Core PCE data for June remains elevated, far from the Fed's 2% target – lowering the likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon.
- Geopolitical tensions are cooling off, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
➡ These macro factors suggest that the current rebound in gold is more technical than fundamental, and unlikely to signal a major trend reversal.
1. Technical Analysis – XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD on D1 Timeframe
- After bouncing from 3,255 USD, price is now testing the 3,285 – 3,295 USD resistance zone.
- This is a Fibonacci retracement zone (0.5 – 0.618) from the previous bearish leg 3,314 → 3,255.
- EMA20 and EMA50 remain downward-sloping, signaling that the dominant trend is still bearish.
- RSI is hovering around 52, suggesting mild momentum but not enough for a confirmed bullish reversal.
➡ The current price behavior aligns with a pullback within a downtrend, with potential for continuation to the downside.
2. Trade Setup – Short-Term Sell Strategy
Primary Setup: Sell the Rally
Entry: Sell near 3,294 – 3,295
Stop Loss: 3,300
Take Profit 1: 3,260
Take Profit 2: 3,244
Take Profit 3: 3,225
Ps: Gold OANDA:XAUUSD is showing signs of a technical bounce, but fundamentals and structure still support the downtrend. Selling at resistance remains the preferred strategy as long as macro pressure persists.
The strategy will be updated continuously – don't forget to save and follow to avoid missing key opportunities.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
Gold: Eyes on QML Zone for Potential Reaction Before Deeper DropHello guys!
Let's go deep into the GOLD chart!
Price has completed a liquidity grab near 3440 (marked as "a hunting") and is now heading downward toward a key QML zone.
First, a reaction is expected around the QML area (3180–3220), where previous structural interest and demand may cause a temporary bounce.
After this reaction, the price is likely to retest higher, potentially forming a lower high.
Then, the dominant bearish structure is expected to continue, with a possible sharp drop toward the final demand zone around 3050–3080.
This movement represents a classic manipulation.
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on June 30Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3350, support 3225
4-hour chart resistance 3310, support 3245
1-hour chart resistance 3295, support 3260
From the 4-hour level, after gold fell to 3255 last Friday, the real candlestick chart was difficult to continue to fall, suggesting that the downward momentum has slowed down. It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of double bottom support at 3245. At the same time, this is also the 0.618 support level of the golden section of the 3120-3452 band. With the MACD showing signs of bottom divergence, short-term operations are bearish, but the probability of rebound is also very high. The short-term support position below the market is near 3281, and the break will look at 3260-3247; the important pressure position is near 3295; the break will look at 3309-3313!
BUY: 3281near
BUY: 3260near
BUY: 3245near
HelenP. I Gold may retest resistance before dropping to $3230Hi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see that after a period of sideways consolidation, gold started to form lower highs under a descending trend line. Each time the price approached this trend line, it was rejected, confirming strong bearish pressure. Most recently, XAUUSD broke below the support-turned-resistance level around 3295, entering the lower resistance zone. Now, the price is trading just under this area, which has acted as a strong supply zone in the past. Given the current technical setup, I expect that gold may show a minor upward move to retest the resistance zone between 3285 - 3295. However, this retest is likely to act as a trigger for sellers to step back in. The prevailing downtrend and repeated failures to break the trend line suggest further weakness ahead. That’s why I’ve placed my target at 3230 points - a level that aligns with the next major support on the chart. This area could provide the next bounce opportunity, but for now, the bearish structure remains dominant. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
GOLD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short GOLD
Entry - 3280.9
Sl - 3287.7
Tp - 3267.4
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Battle Plan – 30 JuneHey, Snipers! It’s Sunday night, the real ones are back on the charts and the tourists are out of the game.
Last week, gold tried every trick in the book: fake bounces, liquidity sweeps, endless bearish grind. Every move up got sold. If you traded like a sniper, you’re still standing. If you chased dips blindly, you’re probably licking your wounds.
🌍Macro snapshot:
Dollar’s holding firm — no rescue from US news, just choppy reactions.
War headlines are everywhere, but structure is king: EMAs are stacked, every rally is just bait for liquidity.
Market’s running on fear and patience. Fast money gets chopped, disciplined money survives.
Sniper Mindset:
⛔No bias, no forced trades. The real win is in the waiting.
Structure will show you who’s in control — your job is to react, not predict.
🥷 GoldFxMinds Battle Plan – 30 June (Trade Nation Feed)
Demand (Buy) Zones:
3265–3245: The “half-mitigated” trap. Most buyers are already underwater — we wait for a real PA shift. First green candle? Ignore it. Let them get trapped.
3215–3200: This is the sniper zone for real discount hunters. If price freefalls, we watch for exhaustion, divergence, and a proper story. One clean engulfing here and the bounce can be massive.
3180–3160: Only for flash crash days — this is where pain turns into opportunity. But you wait for panic, not “hope trades.”
Supply (Sell) Zones:
3287–3300: First sell window — if price spikes, watch for that classic NY liquidity grab and an instant rejection.
3320–3335: The “don’t even try to buy here” zone. OB, FVG, and every EMA lines up — if the market gets here, expect a brutal fade.
3345–3360: Premium fantasy land for sellers. If bulls get cocky, this is where the big shorts reload for the next leg down.
🧠Sniper Mindset:
EMAs stacked above? No dreams, only discipline.
No confirmation in your zone? Stand down — the market isn’t your friend.
Most traders buy “cheap” — we buy right.
If the story’s not clear, patience pays. The first bounce is a trap, the second is the setup.
📝June’s about to end. Let’s close it out with surgical entries and sniper exits.
Stay sharp, stay humble, and let the crowd chase while we collect.
🧠Remember: green candles aren’t invitations, they’re traps for the impatient.
Wait for confluence, act on logic, and journal every single lesson.
Gold rewards discipline — not luck.
If you’re serious about gold, learn this:
Zone + confluence + confirmation = sniper entry.
Anything else is just gambling with a nice chart.
Review your trades, journal your mistakes, and stop blaming the market for your impatience.
Hit like🚀, follow, and drop your trading question if you want the next level.
See you on the Trade Nation feed.
Embracing Uncertainty
In trading, the illusion of certainty is often our biggest enemy.
Even the cleanest setups—like a MTR (Major Trend Reversal)—can fail.
Mark Douglas said it best:
“Anything can happen.”
This simple truth is what keeps professional traders humble and disciplined.
Respect the market, manage your risk, and never assume you know what comes next.
Stay sharp.
#MJTrading
#GoldTrading #XAUUSD #TradingPsychology #AnythingCanHappen #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TradingQuotes #PriceAction #RiskManagement #MindOverMarkets #ChartOfTheDay #MJTrading
XAU/USD Trade Setup – June 30, 2025📉 XAU/USD Trade Setup – June 30, 2025
Bias: Short (Sell Position)
Entry Zone: Around $3,363–$3,370
Stop-Loss: 🔺 $3,259 (Above recent highs)
Take-Profit 1: 🎯 $3,308
Take-Profit 2: 🎯 $3,302
Risk/Reward: Favorable (1.8–2.2:1 depending on entry)
🔍 Technical View
Trend: Bearish below $3,370
Structure: Price rejected key resistance at $3,370–$3,380
Indicators:
RSI weakening near 50 (bearish bias)
MACD crossing down on H1
Key Zone: A break and close below $3,350 will likely drive price toward your TP zones at $3,308 and $3,302.
⚠️ Notes
Volatility expected near NY session open or if macro data hits (e.g. Fed speakers, inflation prints)
Consider scaling out partial profits at TP1 ($3,308) to lock gains
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)As expected last week Gold climbed into our 'Supply Zone' of $3,347 & rejected as I said it would on our video analysis. It even managed to close below our 'BOS' zone.
The game plan this week is to keep an eye on market structure for further sells. With every pump up we should be looking at how price can sell off again & how we can join the sell trend to profit off it.
XAUUSD Channel Down starting new Bearish Leg.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 2-week Channel Down, recently rejected on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The last Lower High was priced on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, so currently we are on the ideal level for a new short.
With a 4H Death Cross emerging, we are targeting the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (as the previous Bearish Leg did) at 3210 for the Channel's new Lower Low.
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GOLD | Pressure Below Pivot – Eyes on 3255 and 3238GOLD | Market Outlook
The overall momentum remains bearish as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 3297.
Currently, the price is attempting to stabilize below 3281, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend toward 3270 and 3255.
A confirmed 1H close below 3255 would further strengthen the bearish scenario, opening the way toward 3238.
Sell Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes below 3281→ Targets: 3270 and 3255
Buy Setup:
Valid if 1H candle closes above 3297→ Targets: 3314
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 3281
• Support: 3255 / 3238
• Resistance: 3297 / 3314
GOLD Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 3,281.18.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 3,396.94 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Silver sideways consolidation support at 3500Silver – Technical Analysis
The Silver price action continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a prevailing rising trend. However, recent intraday moves indicate a corrective pullback, reflecting short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Levels:
Support:
3,500 – Primary support and previous consolidation zone; critical for maintaining bullish structure.
3,450 – Secondary support; potential downside target if 3,500 fails.
3,390 – Key lower support; aligns with a broader demand area.
Resistance:
3,720 – Immediate upside resistance; first target on a bullish bounce.
3,790 – Intermediate resistance; aligns with recent swing highs.
3,850 – Long-term resistance target; marks the upper boundary of the current bullish channel.
Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Continuation (Base Case):
A bounce from the 3,500 level would affirm the corrective pullback as temporary, with potential for a bullish continuation targeting 3,720, followed by 3,790 and 3,850 over a longer timeframe.
Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario):
A daily close below 3,500 would undermine the current bullish outlook and signal a deeper retracement, with downside risk toward 3,450 and potentially 3,390, where structural support may stabilize price.
Conclusion:
Silver remains structurally bullish, with the current pullback offering a potential entry point within the trend. The 3,500 level is the key pivot—holding above it supports further upside continuation, while a breakdown below would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders should watch for price action confirmation at this level to validate the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold corrective pullback support at 3245The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 3245 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 3245 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
3310 – initial resistance
3320 – psychological and structural level
3340 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 3245 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
3220 – minor support
3205 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 3245. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SILVER BEARS ARE STRONG HERE|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,607.1
Target Level: 3,250.7
Stop Loss: 3,843.0
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,339.37
Target Level: 3,313.04
Stop Loss: 3,356.82
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 3,380.73
Target Level: 3,335.74
Stop Loss: 3,410.56
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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