JPM: Mean Reversion (FREMA)🏛️ Research Notes
Already looks mature to me
Conditional averaging of percentage change shows weakening bullish momentum
Testing FREMA as an indicator for mean reversion, where I will look for deviations from the average and anticipate a price movement back towards that mean. The bands were extended to cover the a distorted outcome.
Moving Averages
MSTR Holding the Line: Support Tested AgainMSTR (MicroStrategy) continues to respect its ascending trendline, a bullish sign showing buyers remain in control.
Technical Points:
Price tapped the trendline support for the fourth time and bounced, confirming its strength.
Volume remains stable during pullbacks, suggesting these dips are being absorbed by buyers rather than panic selling.
As long as MSTR holds above $1,400 (trendline + previous support zone), the bullish structure remains intact.
Next targets: $1,600, then $1,750, with potential for new highs if Bitcoin strength continues.
Bottom line:
Repeated successful tests of the trendline show strong market confidence. Unless this trendline breaks with conviction, the path of least resistance is still up.
China: Hang Seng Sneaks HigherChina has seen its share of headline risk this year, and now some traders may think a breakout is coming in the key Hang Seng index.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 24 peak above 25,700. It was the highest price since late 2021, which may suggest buyers are active.
Second is the series of higher lows (and higher highs) since April. That may reflect an emerging uptrend.
Third is June 25’s closing price of 24,475. It began August by pulling back to hold that level. Has old resistance become new support?
Fourth, Bollinger BandWidth has narrowed during the period of consolidation. Could that price compression give way to expansion?
Finally, moving averages may indicate uptrends in the short and long terms. The 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is above the 21-day EMA, and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) is above the 200-day SMA.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
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GDS 1D - golden cross and key buying zoneOn the daily chart of GDS, price is moving within a steady ascending channel and is now correcting toward the key support zone at 31.08–33.14. This zone is reinforced by the 0.618 Fibo level (33.10), the lower channel boundary, and the cluster of SMA50/100/200 averages, which remain under buyers’ control. On the weekly timeframe, a golden cross has formed, signaling a long-term bullish momentum.
The current structure suggests a pullback into 31.08–33.14, followed by a potential bounce. If demand confirms in this area, the technical target lies at 39.74, with an extended bullish scenario aiming for the 1.618 Fibo at 50.49. A break below 31.00 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
Fundamentally , GDS continues to benefit from rising demand for data centers in China and active infrastructure expansion. The long-term trend is supported by strong capital inflows into the tech sector, though short-term corrections within the channel remain part of the normal cycle.
Tactical plan: watch for reaction in the 31.08–33.14 zone; a confirmed buy signal could trigger entries targeting 39.74 and 50.49. Strong setup, but requires disciplined execution.
Solana Summer Kick-Start Lunar MissionCRYPTOCAP:SOL IS REPRICING.
Gimme a Weekly Close above this POI and it’s gonna rip your mother’s face off.
Bullish Engulfing Candle kicked off the 3D run with a close above the 50% Gann.
Riding well above the DMA9.
RSI has plenty of gas left in the tank.
You've been warned.
Bitcoin And The 3 Step Rocket Booster StrategyIf you think Bitcoin is going to a new High and i wont comment on it, you have another thing coming.
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This point you will experience the fear of not taking action
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Alibaba | BABA | Long at $108.84Like Amazon, I suspect AI and robotics will enhance Alibaba's NYSE:BABA e-commerce, logistics, and cloud computing operations. There is some risk here, like other Chinese stocks, that they could be delisted from the US market if trade/war tensions rise. But I just don't think that is likely (no matter the threats) due to the importance of worldwide trade and investment. I could be way wrong, though...
NYSE:BABA has a current P/E of 14.2x and a forward P/E of 2x, which indicates strong earnings growth ahead. The company is very healthy, with a debt-to-equity of 0.2x, Altmans Z Score of 3.3, and a Quick Ratio of 1.5. If this were a US stock, investors would have piled in long ago at the current price.
From a technical analysis perspective, the historical simple moving average (SMA) band has started to reverse trend (now upward), indicating a high potential for continued (overall) price movement up. It is possible, however, that the price may reenter the SMA band in the near-term - the $80s aren't out of the question - as tariff threats arise. But that area is another personal entry zone if fundamentals hold.
Thus, while it could be a bumpy ride and the risk is there for delisting, NYSE:BABA is in a personal buy zone at $108.84 (with known risk of drop to the $80s in the near-term).
Targets into 2028:
$125.00 (+14.8%)
$160.00 (+47.0%)
Caterpillar Pulls BackCaterpillar rallied to a new high in late July, and now it’s pulled back.
The first pattern on today’s chart is $407.63, a record weekly closing price from January. It briefly thwarted the industrial stock’s advance in early July. Prices pushed above it and are now coming back to test the same level. Is old resistance becoming new support?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA last month. That may reflect a bullish long-term trend.
Third, stochastics have dipped to an oversold condition.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Dip-buying on the Nasdaq?The Stock market rallied following the July US CPI inflation data, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing to an all-time high of 23,849. Overlooking the economic picture for now, price action has exhibited a clear uptrend since early April this year. This is evident from the price, which has chalked up a series of higher highs and higher lows, trading above the 200-day simple moving average at 21,100, and with the dynamic value pointing higher.
Traders seldom attempt to buy at record highs; they tend to buy into retracements from support levels. Therefore, support levels of note right now include 23,347 (1W), 22,990 (1W), and 22,592 (1M).
Written by the FP Markets Research Team
Jack in the Box | JACK | Long at $17.00**This is a reentry after cashing out of the original trade with gains. Basic writeup and technical analysis still apply which was originally written here:
Jack in the Box NASDAQ:JACK reentered my "crash" simple moving average zone. While there is a high chance the price may ride the lines down even further, there is currently a double bottom. A company like NASDAQ:JACK will benefit from interest rate cuts due to its significant debt, but it is a very risky trade. There are better companies out there.
However, with an 18 million float and 27% short interest, this could get very interesting as rates are cut. It's a gamble that hinges highly on company turnaround ("Jack on Track" plan) and the possible sale of Del Taco. Thus, at $17.00, NASDAQ:JACK is in a personal buy zone.
Targets into 2028:
$22.00 (+29.4%)
$26.00 (+53.0%)
Wynn Resorts Approaches Key LevelWynn Resorts has consolidated for more than a month, and some traders may think it’s preparing for a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the July 2023 peak of $112.25. WYNN stalled below that old high a few times in the last two years. However, it tested the level in early July and has lingered near it since. Could the casino operator move through that resistance?
Second, consider the one time it tried to drop on August 8. Prices opened under a late-July low but quickly recovered. The resulting false breakdown could also be viewed as a bullish signal.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) began July with a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA. That may suggest WYNN’s long-term trend has grown more bullish.
Finally, unusual options activity yesterday seemed to reveal positive sentiment into the opening of the key Wynn Al Marjan Island project.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
#BTCUSDT #4h (ByBit) Descending trendline breakout and retestBitcoin pulled back to 200MA support where it printed a kind of bullish hammer, seems likely to bounce.
⚡️⚡️ #BTC/USDT ⚡️⚡️
Exchanges: ByBit USDT
Signal Type: Regular (Long)
Leverage: Isolated (18.0X)
Amount: 5.0%
Entry Targets:
1) 117707.1
Take-Profit Targets:
1) 122924.9
Stop Targets:
1) 115091.7
Published By: @Zblaba
CRYPTOCAP:BTC BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P #4h #Bitcoin #PoW bitcoin.org
Risk/Reward= 1:2.0
Expected Profit= +79.8%
Possible Loss= -40.0%
Estimated Gaintime= 1 week
btcusd longest bull market - next dead cross confirm topTill now Longest Bull market based on moving average
- Top - end of bull market
1.price below ma200
2.price below ma400
3.dead cross ma200 below ma400
4.price above ma200
5.price above ma400
6.golden cross ma200 above ma400
-sustainable bull market-
Last biggest bull market was 2016-2017 when almost no future trades were possible and mainly spot buy and sell was dominating the market.
Dead Corss - ma200 crossing and going below ma400 were sing of start of bear market.
But since CME Futures implemented and institutional stepped into trading crypto things get complicated.
Even golden Cross ma200 crossing ma400 and going above it was not bull market but still bear market.
Last Golden cross was in start of 2023 since then there were three fake top signals price going below ma200
The price stays above ma400 already more than 2 and a half years.
Usually bear market is as half of bull market means next bear market would lats more than a year, which would be very dramatic for crypto.
USD vulnerable to further downside versus the JPY The USD/JPY (US dollar versus the Japanese yen) has recently faded the underside of the 200-day simple moving average at ¥149.31 and chalked up what many technical analysts refer to as a head and shoulders pattern – left shoulder: ¥149.19, head: ¥150.92, right shoulder: ¥148.52.
As evident from the chart below, price action elbowed through the pattern’s neckline, extended from the low of ¥145.85. This means that we could have chart pattern enthusiasts target the pattern’s profit objective at ¥142.34.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
Covenant Log Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Covenant Log Quote
- Double Formation
* Stop Loss - *Medium Range | No Size Up | Subdivision 1
* (Consolidation Argument)) - *0.5 Retracement Area | Completed Survey
* 81 bars, 2466d | Date Range Method - *(Uptrend Argument))
- Triple Formation
* (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2
* Monthly Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition | Subdivision 3
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings
* Stop Loss Feature Varies Regarding To Main Entry And Can Occur Unevenly
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 15.00 EUR
* Entry At 20.00 EUR
* Take Profit At 28.00 EUR
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
- Continuation Pattern | Not Valid
- Reversal Pattern | Not Valid
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
TME: Near the End of the Climb? Sellers Taking ControlTME (Tencent Music) has been moving higher inside a well-defined ascending channel, but the chart is flashing caution signals right now.
Technical Points:
Price has reached the top of the channel, a level that historically triggered pullbacks.
Recent candles show weakness - upper wicks, lower volume, and hesitation near resistance.
Significant gap from the 20 EMA (≈20.20$), increasing the odds of a pullback.
A likely scenario: rejection at the current level and a move back toward the channel's midline (≈23$) or even the EMA zone.
Bottom line:
The upside looks limited here, while the risk of a reversal is rising sharply. A breakout would require strong volume, otherwise sellers may push this lower.
The MagnetAndrews' Pitchfork Construction: Pivot 0 (P0): The starting point of the median line. In this chart, it is anchored to the late 2013 cycle top. Pivot 1 (P1): Defines the upper line of the channel. This is anchored to the late 2017 cycle top. Pivot 2 (P2): Defines the lower line of the channel. This is anchored to the late 2018 / early 2019 bear market bottom.
Significance and Interpretation: The channel created by these three major cycle points has framed Bitcoin's price action with remarkable accuracy for over a decade. Lower Parallel Line (Support): This line has acted as the definitive macro bottom for bear markets. The price found its ultimate low for the 2022 bear market precisely on this trendline before reversing. Upper Parallel Line (Resistance): This line represents the primary target or "overbought" zone during major bull runs. The 2021 bull market peaked as it approached this line, indicating that the rally was reaching its structural conclusion within this framework. Median Line (The Magnet): This is the most crucial line of the pitchfork. It acts as the centerline of the trend or the "fair value" line. The price constantly reverts to it. It acted as major resistance in 2019 and again throughout 2021-2022 after the initial peak. It acted as major support after the breakout in late 2020.
COT (Commitment of Traders) Data
Commercials long, traders short. What more can a man ask for in life?
Elanco Animal Health Inc | ELAN | Long at $11.16Elanco Animal Health NYSE:ELAN is riding my historical simple moving average and likely to make a move up soon. Insiders have recently been awarded options and bought $483,000+ worth of shares. Became profitable this year, low debt, P/E = 15x.
Long at $11.16
Targets:
$12.50
$14.50
$16.00
$17.50
RKT Consolidates Above $10 Ahead of $18 BreakoutNYSE:RKT has been consistently making higher highs since late 2022.
A rally toward the end of 2023 drove the price up from $7 to around $18. Although the expanded supply block at that level has capped further gains, the price continues to consolidate above $10, still finding support from the mitigation block in that area.
However, because the consolidation is ongoing, the current price trend remains unclear—both the 30- and 50-period EMAs are flat.
In the medium term, once this consolidation phase completes, the price is expected to resume its move back toward $18 and beyond.
Quetzal Copper Corp Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Quetzal Copper Corp Quote
- Double Formation
* (1st. Reference)) - *25EMA | Subdivision 1
* (Range Allocation)) | No Size Up | Completed Survey
* 72 bars, 503d | Date Range Method - *(Uptrend Argument))
- Triple Formation
* (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2
* Weekly Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition | Subdivision 3
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Indexed To 100
* Stop Loss Feature Varies Regarding To Main Entry And Can Occur Unevenly
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 9.00 CAD
* Entry At 5.00 CAD
* Take Profit At 0.50 CAD
* (Downtrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
- Continuation Pattern | Not Valid
- Reversal Pattern | Not Valid
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Sell
Evolent Health | EVH | Long at $9.45While 2025 is expected, and has been, a bad year for Evolent Heath NYSE:EVH , the growth prospects look very, very promising. However, I will caution that the price could almost be cut in half from its current trading value ($9.45) with another poor earnings in 2025. This definitely isn't an "it's only up from here" stock. The price entered my "crash" simple moving area (green lines) twice and a third time could occur before the end of the year ($4-$5 range as of this writeup).
Regardless of bottom predictions, earnings for NYSE:EVH are expected to rise from $1.9 billion in 2025 to $3.2 billion in 2028. EPS predicted to rise from $0.26 in 2025 to $1.18 in 2028. Debt-to-equity = 1.2x (okay, below 1 is best), Quick Ratio, or the ability to pays current bills is = 1x (okay, between 1.5 and 3 is best), and bankruptcy risk is relatively high (but reduced interest rates may help). Insiders have purchased over $11 million in shares this year with a cost average (~$23): much higher than it's current trading price.
So, while it seems there could be some short-term risks for Evolent Health, the future beyond 2025 is bright (based on company projections). Thus, at $9.45, NYSE:EVH is in a personal buy zone with potential downside risk near $4-5 in the near-term.
Targets into 2028:
$15.00 (+58.7%)
$20.00 (+111.6%)
Principal Value ETF Quote | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General
1. Push Set Up
2. Range Set Up
3. Break & Retest Set Up
Notes On Session
# Principal Value ETF Quote
- Double Formation
* (A+)) - *Crossing - *25EMA | Subdivision 1
* (Range Allocation)) | No Size Up | Completed Survey
* 63 bars, 1.918d | Date Range Method - *(Uptrend Argument))
- Triple Formation
* (P1)) / (P2)) & (P3)) | Subdivision 2
* Weekly Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition | Subdivision 3
- (Hypothesis On Entry Bias)) | Regular Settings
* Stop Loss Feature Varies Regarding To Main Entry And Can Occur Unevenly
- Position On A 1.5RR
* Stop Loss At 42.00 USD
* Entry At 48.00 USD
* Take Profit At 59.00 USD
* (Uptrend Argument)) & No Pattern Confirmation
- Continuation Pattern | Not Valid
- Reversal Pattern | Not Valid
* Ongoing Entry & (Neutral Area))
Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities;
European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging)
Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand;
Overall Consensus | Buy
$TSLA – Wedge Breakout with Rotation PotentialNASDAQ:TSLA – Breaking Out of a Big Wedge After Earnings Reversal
Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) just broke its wedge pattern after a strong post-earnings recovery, and the price action says a lot about where sentiment is shifting.
🔹 Earnings Flush → Strong Absorption
Earnings reaction was ugly — big gap down and heavy selling.
Since then, NASDAQ:TSLA has been shrugging off negative news — sales data, guidance cuts, analyst downgrades — all absorbed without breaking down.
This tells me buyers are quietly accumulating.
🔹 Rotation Narrative
The rest of the Mag 7 has been ripping for months.
NASDAQ:TSLA is the laggard — and now traders are rotating into the one big name that hasn’t moved yet.
If it holds here, the upside could be sharp.
🔹 My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Starter Long: Took an entry on the wedge trendline break.
2️⃣ Why Not Full Size Yet? This is day 4 of the move — in my playbook, that’s a starter size only.
3️⃣ Add Trigger: If we get an inside day or small dip that holds above the 9 EMA, I’ll add the rest of the position.
4️⃣ Stop: Under the wedge breakout level for now.
Why I Like This Setup:
Wedge break + rotation narrative + strong news absorption.
Market psychology turning — when a stock stops going down on bad news, it’s often about to go up.
Starter now, add on the dip = structured risk.