EUR/USD For Bullishwait for pull-back near by entry point and then go long
general trend is up trend
have fun :)
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
NZD/USD For Bullishyou can go long now
or
wait for pull-back near by entry point and then go long
general trend is up trend
have fun :)
Gold or Bitcoin - Which is the better hedge for 2024?Short answer: Bitcoin
By the year end Bitcoin shall enjoy stronger gains. That is despite the 2-week Gravestone DOJI candle now currently printing on Bitcoin, which makes you wonder… what heinous price action awaits gold bugs?
On the above 3-day chart a ratio of Gold/Bitcoin is shown. If this ratio is downtrending (it is), Bitcoin will be worth more than Gold with each passing week and vice versa.
A Death Cross has now printed on the above 3-day chart after broken market structure. Expect the ratio to climb to confirm past support as resistance.
The 3-day death cross is significant. Look left. The last 3-day death cross printed on March 2016 (below). Gold lost 99% of its value against Bitcoin from that time. Now I’m not saying that is going to repeat, however the point would be that a 3-day death cross is not something you ignore.
Ww
3-day Death cross March 2016
Last year (2023) and the years before the same question:
Which is the better hold for preserving ones wealth?
In 2023, it was Bitcoin.
2023 idea
In 2022, it was Gold. Idea below. Bitcoin correction throughout 2022 made Gold the only option during the bear market.
2022 Idea
XAUUSD - When will the gold trend reverse?!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A downward correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position with a good risk-reward ratio. We expect a fluctuation of $10-15 in each range.
The global gold market has experienced notable shifts in trade flows following the removal of retaliatory tariffs on metals imposed by the Trump administration. According to data, a significant portion of gold that had been moved to New York since December is now being returned to Switzerland, its original destination.
Swiss customs data reveals that gold imports from the United States surged to 25.5 metric tons in March—the highest level in 13 months—up from just 12.1 tons in February. In contrast, gold exports from Switzerland to the U.S. dropped by 32%, falling to 103.2 tons.
For the first time in over 14 months, Comex-approved warehouses, part of the CME Group, have recorded consistent outflows of gold. These outflows indicate a reduction in U.S. futures premiums and a decline in trader anxiety following the removal of tariffs.
Switzerland has once again emerged as the primary destination for gold leaving American vaults, reaffirming its central role in global gold refining and logistics. Nevertheless, a portion of the gold stored in U.S. warehouses continues to serve as a hedge against market uncertainties.
In an average year, the U.S.consumes around 115 metric tons of gold in the form of physical coins and bars. Current data suggests that kilobar inventories held in CME warehouses are sufficient to meet this demand for nearly 12 years.
The gold market remains heavily influenced by geopolitical and economic factors. These developments highlight Switzerland’s importance in refining and transportation, as well as the United States’ significant role in gold storage and resource management.
Meanwhile, a growing number of economic forecasts are warning that the U.S. may be entering a period of “stagflation”—a situation characterized by stagnating economic growth coupled with persistently high inflation. Tariffs have the potential to drive up consumer prices while simultaneously slowing growth, placing financial pressure on households, particularly if the labor market deteriorates.
Central banks face serious challenges in responding to stagflation through monetary policy, as efforts to address one side of the issue often exacerbate the other. Even if the U.S. economy avoids a recession triggered by tariffs, many economists foresee rising risks of a painful stagflationary period.
While economic experts remain divided on whether former President Trump’s trade wars will ultimately tip the economy into recession, a large number of recent forecasts underscore the increasing threat of prolonged inflation combined with sluggish growth. Numerous analysts, including Federal Reserve officials, argue that tariffs are likely to hamper economic expansion and weaken the labor market, all while elevating consumer prices.
However, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial, is among those who believe the labor market and consumers remain resilient enough to help the economy steer clear of a full-blown recession—assuming recently announced tariffs are eventually scaled back.
CHFJPY: Back to the Trend?! 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY looks bullish after a test of a key daily horizontal support.
It looks like the correction that we currently see on intraday time frames is over.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag
pattern on an hourly time frame.
Goal - 175.62
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NAS100 - Will the stock market go bullish?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for the next Nasdaq long positions with a good risk-reward ratio.
Economists remain divided over whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are weakening the economy enough to trigger a recession. Some believe the possibility of a recession is significant, citing the rising costs of tariffs that are burdening both businesses and consumers. Others argue that the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the trade war without falling into recession, pointing to resilient employment levels and consumer spending.
Forecasting experts also express differing views regarding the risk that Trump’s tariff campaign could tip the economy into a downturn. A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in April among 57 economists revealed that, on average, participants estimated a 45% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months—up from just 20% in the January survey.
The economic outlook took a notable downturn in February, when Trump began announcing tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters, who had expected a “soft landing” from post-pandemic inflation, are now preparing for a possible recession, as these tariffs and other economic barriers are forcing both households and businesses to tighten spending.
A separate survey of financial professionals working with businesses found that many companies have recently faced greater difficulty in collecting payments from clients, indicating growing financial strain among key economic players. The Credit Managers’ Index, overseen by the National Association of Credit Management and monitored by economist Chris Kuehl, still showed growth in March, though at a slower pace than before.
On the more optimistic side is Allen Sinai from Decision Economics, who assigns only a 20% probability to a recession within the next year. Although this is an increase from his January estimate of 10%, he still considers it an unlikely scenario.
Sinai’s primary reason for optimism is the strength of the labor market, which has remained stable since recovering from the massive layoffs during the COVID-19 lockdowns. March’s unemployment rate was 4.2%—close to historic lows—and not indicative of an economy in recession.
One major point of disagreement between recession pessimists and optimists lies in the interpretation of consumer sentiment data. Surveys have shown that people are increasingly worried about inflation, the job market, and their personal finances. If such concerns lead to more cautious consumer spending, it could weigh heavily on the overall economy.
The upcoming week is expected to begin quietly in terms of economic data releases, particularly due to global markets being closed on Monday in observance of Easter. However, midweek brings key reports that could significantly influence market expectations. On Wednesday, the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index for April and March new home sales figures are due. Thursday will feature a packed slate of indicators, including durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
Alongside the data releases, investors will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Following Jerome Powell’s firm stance last week, upcoming speeches by Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Harker could shape or reinforce market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path.
Meanwhile, Apple is grappling with mounting challenges in the global marketplace. In China, the company has lost a significant portion of its market share, with sales declining by 9%, while Huawei’s sales have grown by 10%, and Xiaomi now holds the top spot with an 18.6% market share. These shifts reflect a notable pivot in Chinese consumer preferences toward domestic brands. Furthermore, U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods have put additional pressure on Apple’s profit margins in its home market, placing the company in a tough position.
EURCHF 21/04/2025Weekly:
-Previous support broken is now acting as support.
Daily:
-Bearish W pattern.
-Bearish Daily candle.
4H:
-OB.
-Bearish W pattern.
-IC.
Short trade
Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
🕒 Time: 9:00 PM
(Tokyo Session PM)
Pair: SOLUSDT
🕜 Time Frame: 15min TF
🎯 Direction: Sellside
Trade Details:
Entry: 141.811
Profit Level: 137.911 (+2.75%)
Stop Level: 142.038 (-0.16%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 17.18
This sellside trade is driven by clear bearish structural signals, a premium price rejection, and liquidity-driven execution within the Tokyo PM session context.
Bearish sentiment on the USD index (DXY)TVC:DXY
On this trading week (April 14-18), we have not seen much volatility in the USD index, with its highest trading point at approximately 100.3 and lowest 99.2, partly due to a long bank holiday for Good Friday and Easter on the following Monday. On last week's Friday, price briefly tapped into the weekly demand zone and gave a quick reaction upwards to the 4-hour supply zone, which then quickly rejected and cooled price back down. Currently, price is still sitting at the lower point of the weekly range, we can expect DXY to have a very short-term push back to this strong 4-hour swap zone above, possibly creating a higher high, before pushing it back down. Price is very likely to take out the weekly lows and continue to push towards the bottom of the weekly demand zone.
On fundamentals, Bank of America's analysts had identified close relationship of its depreciating USD, with its falling US asset and equities values. Economic activities have also declined due to trade wars and huge uncertainty of the upcoming policy changes by the Trump administration; asset managers and central banks may also continue to sell USD. Besides, the US is very likely to continue reducing its interest rates in order to boost its economic activity. One of the reasons why Trump imposed high tariffs into many countries was to reduce international dependency on the manufacturing sector and trade deficits, and to attract foreign investments to set up factories in the US, in order to sell to consumers at the 'good price'. However, it is still very controversial on how effective it is, business owners abroad may perceive Trump's policies as bipolar, which changes depending on his mood, therefore, majority of businesses would rather partner elsewhere than to put themselves through this hassle. USD has also dropped 10% since the start of 2025 and has reached its lowest in three years.
References:
www.investing.com
www.cbsnews.com
USDCHF SELLSPrice is still bearish therefore I’m only interested in sells for now. I’d wait for price to breakout of this h4 range then I’ll look for sells towards 0.78250 area.
Long trade
15min TF overview
📅 Trade Log Entry
Pair: SOLUSDT
Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
Time: 4:30 PM (NY Time)
Session: New York PM
Entry 136.068
Profit level 137.391 (0.97%)
Stop level 136.023 (0.03%)
RR 29.4
📊 Trade Setup – Buyside Idea
🧠 Strategy Components:
Volatility Zones Identified:
🔹 White: Resistance zone
🔹 Green: Support zone
🔹 Yellow: Midpoint (key POI)
Liquidity Sweep: Price swept below support capturing liquidity before reversing.
Order Block & Choch: Institutional buy zone confirmed with a bullish change of character.
Break of Midpoint (Brk): Confirmed directional bias following midpoint breakout.
30sec TF overview
Skeptic | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Why 85850 is Critical!The breakout above 85,850 could push Bitcoin into a new uptrend phase, potentially driving price toward 90K, 95K, and even 105K in the coming weeks. That’s why this zone is so important. But let me explain why in more detail.
⭐Let’s start with the daily timeframe. After breaking out of its descending trendline, BTC entered a range between 82,800 and 85,850 . Looking at the bigger picture, you’ll see that 88,500 is a key resistance level — and breaking above it could act as a strong trigger.
But if you’re not a breakout trader and prefer reactive entries, the 80K–82K zone is a major PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) based on RSI, Fibonacci, and Pivot Points — meaning it could offer a decent spot-buying opportunity.
Just keep in mind: we’re not officially in a daily uptrend yet, so if you’re thinking about spot buying, it’s better to wait for a confirmed higher low and higher high on the daily chart.
The long-term target for the next uptrend is around 140K , based on long-term Fibonacci extensions, pivot points, and trend channels.
🔮 Now let’s drop to the 4H timeframe to find some long and short triggers.
As you can see, we’ve got a range box between 83,055 and 85,853.89.
A long trigger activates after a clean breakout above 85,853.89.
A short trigger activates after a breakdown below 83,055.
It’s better to use stop buy/sell orders rather than entering at market price, since price may move sharply after staying in this box for quite a while.
You can also use this box to set your stop losses.
If you’re a reaction-based trader, you could:
Short around 85,853 when price reacts there,
Or go long around 83,055, depending on your personal strategy.
Just remember: crypto markets often fake breakouts, especially during low-volume periods like now.
Indicators like RSI, Volume, and SMA can help confirm moves.
Understanding momentum — when it’s present and when it’s not — can save you from taking unnecessary trades.
Also, the candlestick itself matters a lot:
How long is the shadow?
What’s the body size and color?
Are we getting strong bullish or bearish confirmations?
If you want a tutorial on identifying real vs. fake breakouts, let me know in the comments — I’ll make one soon.
If you enjoyed the analysis, hit that Boost
By the way, I’m Skeptic.
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – SOL/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:00 AM (NY Time) – London Session AM
🕓 Structure: 4Hr Timeframe
🎯 Target: Liquidity low
Trade Details:
Entry: 137.133
Take Profit (TP): 133.559 (–2.61%)
Stop Loss (SL): 137.275 (+0.10%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 22.17
"This is a refined supply zone rejection, with the 4-hour structure aligning for a liquidity sweep, confirming a sell-side trade setup." and following early executed sell side trade.
15min FT overview.
Long trade
📈 Buy-side Trade – DOGE/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: noon – NY Session PM
🔍 Observed Timeframe: 15min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 0.15300
Take Profit (TP): 0.15452 (+0.99%)
Stop Loss (SL): 0.15277 (–0.15%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.61
🧠 Context / Trade Notes:
Trade executed off a reactive LTF demand zone with a bullish structure shift.
0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels in confluence above.
Entry followed a liquidity sweep + quick recovery, suggesting smart money support.
The tight stop below body/wick support kept risk controlled and allowed for high RR.
“Does size matter?” when it comes to backtesting?It’s the kind of question that gets a few smirks, sure. But when it comes to backtesting trading strategies, it’s not a joke, it’s the difference between confidence and false hope.
Let’s get real for a minute: the size of your candles absolutely matters.
What you don’t see can hurt you
Most people start testing on bigger timeframes. It’s faster, easier on the eyes, and the results look clean. But clean doesn’t mean correct.
Larger candles blur the details. That one nice-looking 4-hour candle? Inside, price could’ve spiked, reversed, chopped around, or triggered your stop before closing where it did. You’d never know. And that’s the problem.
You might think your entry worked beautifully… but only because the data smoothed out everything that actually happened.
A backtest should feel like a real trade
Trading isn't just about the final price. It’s about what price does to get there. That messy movement inside the candle? That’s where most trades are made or broken.
If your strategy is even remotely reactive, waiting for structure, confirmation, retests, or anything time-sensitive, you need to see what price did between the open and close.
And the only way to see that? Use smaller candles.
Smaller data, clearer picture
1-minute candles might look overwhelming at first, but they give you something the higher timeframes just can’t: behavior.
Not just outcomes. Not just win/loss stats. But the actual shape of the move, the hesitation, the fakeouts, the precise moment when the trade made sense—or didn’t.
And once you start testing with that level of detail, your strategy either earns your trust… or shows its cracks.
So how small should you go?
There’s no one-size-fits-all here. But as a general rule: if your idea relies on precision, go small. Test it on 1-minute or 5-minute charts, even if you plan to execute on higher timeframes. You’ll quickly see if the entry makes sense, or if you’ve been relying on candle-close hindsight.
Yes, it takes longer. Yes, you’ll stare at noisy charts for hours. But your strategy will thank you.
Watch out for “too good to be true”
One last thing, if your backtest results look flawless on 1h or 4h candles, pause. That’s often a sign that you’re testing a story, not a strategy.
Zoom in. See what actually happens. You might be surprised at how different the same trade looks when you’re not glossing over the details.
TL;DR:
In backtesting, size absolutely matters. Smaller candles reveal real behavior. Bigger ones hide the truth. So if you care about how your strategy actually performs not just how it looks.
go smaller. Your backtesting will get sharper, and your confidence? Way more earned.
BNBUSDTshort selling set up 📉
DISCLAIMER:
what I share here is just personal research, all based on my hobby and love of speculation intelligence.
The data I share does not come from financial advice.
Use controlled risk, not an invitation to buy and sell certain assets, because it all comes back to each individual.
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – SOL/USDT
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 6:00 AM – London Session AM
🔍 Observed Timeframe: 5min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 139.216
Take Profit (TP): 137.727 (–1.07%)
Stop Loss (SL): 139.524 (+0.22%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.83
Focused on lower timeframe structure and supply zone rejection - internal liquidity sweep for a sell-side trade idea.
Stop level moved (0.50%)
GOLD SHORTS (Holding)Simply Targeting 2,368 as first TP
Possible continuation to 2,299 depending on volume in the next few Major Sessions. London, NY
Not a big indicator guy but this is is the overall sediment for the next 4 hours.
The current outlook for XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar) over the next 4 hours appears bearish. Technical indicators and market sentiment suggest a strong sell position for gold.
Technical Analysis: Various technical indicators are showing a strong sell signal, including RSI, MACD, and moving averages over multiple timeframes (Investing.com) (TradingView).
Market Sentiment: Rising Treasury yields and a strengthening US dollar have been putting downward pressure on gold prices. Gold has recently pulled back below $2400 (FX Empire) (DailyFX).
Given these factors, the trend for XAU/USD is expected to remain bearish in the short term.
Short trade
📉 Sell-side Trade – BTC/USD
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:00 AM (NY Time) – London Session AM
📊 Timeframes:
Structure: 4Hr
Entry: 15min
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 84700.0
Take Profit (TP): 84423.5 (–0.33%)
Stop Loss (SL): 84756.5 (+0.07%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.89
Reason: RSI divergence on the 5min TF and after confirmation of lower high rejection within a 4Hr bearish structure seemed indicative of a sell-side trade. Bearish FVG on the 4Hr TF or imbalance to fill is my assumption for target.
Gold - Betting Against The Bullrun WILL Rip Your Face Off!You'd think that due to all of the economic pain we are all feeling gold would plummet alongside the US dollar but nope.... It's the complete opposite.
We are in uncharted territories and the next psychological target is $3,500.
Will we see gold reach the highs before the 90-days tariff holds expire?
EURCAD SHORTPrice is at a very strong monthly and weekly resistance zone. Waiting to see if we break below H4 support moving lower to next H4 support around 1.54000. Long term target is 1.51500 where price broke out of a major resistance.
Long trade
🚀 Buyside Trade Breakdown – ETH/USD
📅 Date: Saturday, April 19, 2025
⏰ Time: 4:30 PM (NY Session AM — late NY session weekend)
🪙 Pair: ETH/USD
📈 Direction: Buy (Long)
Trade Parameters:
Entry: 1613.56
Take Profit (TP): 1631.01 (+1.08%)
Stop Loss (SL): 1612.93 (–0.04%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 27.7
A 2min or sub-minute TF setup,
Executed at the retest of a refined LTF demand zone. The tight stop loss of 0.04% reflects high-conviction execution, as sell-side liquidity was flipped to the buy-side, confirming directional bias.
Bitcoin showing mixed signals across timeframesOn the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has broken above the descending trendline 📉 — however, the breakout lacks strong momentum, and no higher high has formed yet.
Therefore, we cannot yet confirm a shift from a bearish to a bullish trend.
According to the Fibonacci retracement tool, price is currently ranging between the 0.236 and 0.382 levels. These two zones could act as key decision points on the lower timeframes.
A confirmed breakout above the 0.382 level ✅ would signal bullish continuation.
A breakdown below the 0.236 level ❌ could lead to a move down toward the $81,200 zone — aligning with the broader trendline support.
On the 15-minute timeframe, price is consolidating and forming a triangle wedge pattern 🔺.
A breakout from this wedge may provide short-term direction toward the key Fibonacci levels mentioned above
