SMCI: When a chart says it’s time to reconnect with the AI hypeOn the daily chart, Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is showing a clean bullish setup. Price broke out of a descending trendline (green dashed), confirmed it with a retest, and is now consolidating above the breakout zone. The golden cross — where the MA50 crossed above the MA200 — confirms a long-term trend reversal.
Volume profile indicates strong accumulation near $41–43. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at $41.84 acted as support. Above the current range, there’s low volume resistance up to $63.57 (0.786), followed by $66.44 and a final extension target at $79.82 (1.272).
Fundamentals: SMCI is a leading server hardware manufacturer. Demand for their systems has soared with the explosion of AI infrastructure. The company maintains solid financials, with rising quarterly revenue and growing presence in the cloud sector. Institutional investors have been actively increasing their positions since late 2023 — a sign of strong long-term conviction.
Tactical plan:
— Entry: market $42–43
— Target 1: $55.91
— Target 2: $63.57
When technicals scream textbook breakout and fundamentals bring AI momentum to the table — it might just be one of the best late entries in the AI wave this summer.
Nasdaq
NQ, PM session (Tuesday) (long into short idea)Most likely price will make one more pullback before dropping into sell-side liquidity.
The laggish price action tells us that NQ is not really done IMO. I think a retracement into the 15m Gap is doable for NQ.
Keep watching NQ afterwards, We want to see a sudden drop to confirm our down movement.
USNAS100 Outlook – CPI Data to Confirm Breakout or PullbackUSNAS100 – Bullish Momentum Holds Ahead of CPI
USNAS100 continues to show strong bullish momentum, trading above 22,905 and recently printing a new all-time high (ATH).
As long as price remains above this level, the next upside target is 23,170, followed by 23,300.
Market Focus – CPI Data Today:
• Expected: 2.6%
• Below 2.6% → bullish reaction likely
• Above 2.6% → bearish pressure expected
• Exactly 2.6% → could trigger a short-term bearish pullback
Key Risk Level:
A confirmed break below 22,905 would signal weakness and open the door for a correction toward 22,615.
NAS100 Forecast 24HAs of Tuesday, July 15, 2025, 2:03:11 AM UTC+4 the forecast for US100 (Nasdaq 100) in the next 24 hours presents a mixed outlook, with underlying bullish sentiment but caution due to ongoing market dynamics and potential for short-term pullbacks.
Factors Contributing to a Bullish Bias:
Underlying Strength and Breakout Behavior: Despite some short-term bearish technical signals, the Nasdaq is described as being in "breakout mode," decisively overriding key levels. This suggests underlying bullish momentum.
AI as a Growth Driver: Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a primary growth driver for the US economy and the technology sector, which heavily influences the Nasdaq 100. Confidence in secular tailwinds like cloud computing and semiconductor demand also persists .
Temporary US Dollar Weakness: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a retracement phase, pulling back after strength. A weaker dollar can provide a relief rally for risk assets like the Nasdaq, making US tech stocks more attractive to international investors.
Potential for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: While no rate cuts are expected over the summer, a rate cut is considered likely in September. Historically, phases of moderate interest rate cuts in the absence of a recession have been positive for the US stock market.
"Buy on Dip" Mentality: Some analyses suggest that any short-term declines could be viewed as buying opportunities, indicating an underlying positive sentiment among investors.
Strong Earnings Expectations (for some tech): Despite general market concerns, some technology companies associated with AI innovation are expected to perform well, contributing positively to the index.
Factors Suggesting Caution and Potential for Bearish Movement/Volatility:
Escalating Trade Tensions (Trump's Tariffs): President Trump's continued aggressive protectionist stance and new tariff threats (e.g., against Canada) are a significant risk. These can create uncertainty, weigh on corporate profits, and lead to market volatility. This is frequently cited as the main risk for US indices.
Short-Term Technical Bearishness: Some technical analyses indicate a high chance of bearish candle closures across various timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) , and some traders are eyeing selling opportunities from specific resistance zones (e.g., around 22,800-22,869).
Overvalued Growth Stocks: Following a recent rally, US stocks, particularly growth stocks, are trading at a premium to fair value. This can limit upside potential and make the market more susceptible to corrections if tariff negotiations falter or earnings guidance disappoints.
Market Seasonality: As we move into the latter half of July, market seasonality can shift from bullish to a more bearish stance.
Earnings Season and "Sell on the News" : While major financial institutions are kicking off Q2 earnings season, there's a potential for a "sell on the news" response, even if earnings aren't particularly bad, given the strong rally stocks have already staged.
Mixed Global Signals: European markets showing mixed performance and pressure from US futures suggest cautious global risk sentiment, which could cap upside for the Nasdaq.
Unfilled Stock Imbalances: Some technical analysis points to an unfilled stock imbalance around 22,300, which could act as a reaction point if the price pulls back.
Key Levels to Watch (Approximate):
Support: 22,600, 22,300 (unfilled imbalance), 21,611 (resistance-turned-support), 20,673 (Fibonacci extension and prior high).
Resistance: 22,800, 22,869, 23,000-23,100 (potential re-entry targets for rally continuation), 25,000-25,100 (approximate imbalance level to be filled).
In conclusion, for the next 24 hours, the US100 is likely to face a battle between underlying bullish momentum driven by AI and potential Fed policy, and the immediate headwinds of escalating trade tensions and some short-term technical bearishness. Traders should be prepared for volatility and quick shifts in sentiment based on news flow, particularly regarding trade and upcoming earnings reports.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
2025-07-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment:
The biggest surprise for next week would be a huge gap down Sunday futures open and having that gap stay open. If bears could actually do something like that and trap all bulls who bought above 22600, that would be amazing.
Spoiler: Bears could not. Another gap down and bear trap. It’s sad but the reality. Don’t expect strong bears all of the sudden.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 22000 - 23100
bull case: Bulls defended 22800 which is still as bullish as it gets. Don’t make it more complicated than it is. We are going sideways under the ath, can print a new one any given day. Since I don’t have any targets above 23100ish, I won’t make stuff up here. I only wait for the profit taking to begin to look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 22700.
bear case: Bears are sad. Need a daily close below 22700. If they prevent bulls from printing a new ath above 23111, I would be surprised. No need to write more here until we see much much bigger selling pressure.
Invalidation is above 23500.
short term: Neutral. Bears not doing enough and bulls going sideways under ath. No interest in buying, so I am neutral until big bears come around.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-29: No change in plans. I expect 20000 to get hit over the next 3 months and maybe 19000 again.
trade of the day: Long the double bottom above 22800 or the retest on US open around 22830. Bears failed to print consecutive good looking 30m/1h bear bars, so a reversal was the most likely outcome after the double bottom.
NASDAQ Is looking for a massive break-out to 24000!Nasdaq (NDX) is most likely taking advantage of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support and after hitting it, it appears that the price will look for a way above the Parabola.
This might be similar to what took place after the May 07 test of the 4H MA50. The price broke above that parabolic pattern and peaked on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are looking for 24000 as a potential Target in the next 2 weeks.
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"Ethereum Is The New Bitcoin" - Tom Lee ETH / Stablecoins Are the ChatGPT of Crypto
Stablecoins are exploding in adoption — just like ChatGPT took over AI and Ethereum is the engine driving that revolution. In this post, we break down 10 reasons why Tom Lee is extremely bullish on Ethereum and why it could be the single most important digital asset in the future of finance . If you're sleeping on ETH, this might be your wake-up call.
Top 10 Bullish Points from Tom Lee on Ethereum:
• Ethereum is the backbone of stablecoins , which Tom Lee compares to the “ChatGPT of crypto” due to their viral adoption and massive utility.
• Over 51% of all stablecoins operate on Ethereum , contributing to around 30% of the network’s total fees.
• Ethereum network fees could 10x as stablecoin usage grows from $250 billion to $2 trillion.
• Ethereum is positioned to lead the tokenization of real-world assets , including stocks and real estate.
• ETH could reach $10,000 if asset tokenization becomes a mainstream financial practice.
• Ethereum has a regulatory edge in the U.S. , making it the preferred platform for compliant financial innovation.
• A $250 million ETH treasury strategy is underway , aiming to use Ethereum as a long-term reserve asset.
• Institutions will buy and stake ETH to secure stablecoin networks, making ETH the “next Bitcoin.”
• Ethereum dominates the crypto ecosystem , with nearly 60% of activity including DeFi, NFTs, and dApps built on its chain.
• HODL ETH for long-term growth , as its utility, demand, and institutional support continue to rise.
Conclusion:
Ethereum isn’t just a Layer 1 blockchain — it’s becoming the core financial infrastructure for the digital age . As stablecoins expand and institutions enter, ETH could be the most asymmetric opportunity in crypto right now.
📢 Drop a like, leave your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to follow for more powerful macro + crypto insights. 👍👍
NASDAQ At Good Res , Is It A Chance To Sell To Get 200 Pips ?Here is my 4H Nasdaq Chart and my opinion is the price at very interesting selling area for me , this Res Area forced the prices to go down 2 times and i think this third time will be the best one , so i`m waiting the price to go up a little to retest the res one more time and then we can enter a sell trade and targeting from 100 to 200 pips . the only reason to cancel this idea if we have a clear daily closure above my res area .
NASDAQ at Risk – Tariffs Pressure Tech IndexUSNAS100 – Market Outlook
The index is currently in a sensitive zone, heavily influenced by ongoing tariff tensions. If the current geopolitical pressure continues, it may fuel bearish momentum across the tech-heavy index.
To regain a bullish outlook, we need to see signs of negotiation or de-escalation, which could stabilize the price and lead it toward 23010 and 23170.
However, as of today, the market appears to be setting up for a correction, potentially dipping to 22815, followed by a deeper bearish move targeting 22420.
Support Levels: 22615 – 22420
Resistance Levels: 22905 – 23010
NAS100 - Stock market awaits inflation!The index is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Maintaining the ascending channel and confirming it after breaking the downtrend line will lead to the continuation of the Nasdaq's upward path to higher targets (23000), but in case of no increase and channel failure, one can look for selling positions up to the target of 22500.
Last week, the U.S.dollar demonstrated strong performance against major global currencies, despite having experienced some weakness since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced retaliatory tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. However, these tariffs were ultimately postponed, and only a baseline 10% tariff was maintained.
The 90-day deadline for implementing these tariffs, originally set to expire on Wednesday, has now been extended to August 1. Nevertheless, Trump surprised the markets this week by announcing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea, threatening a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, and implementing lower tariffs for other partners. These developments triggered a shift of capital toward the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, boosting its strength.
This marks a notable shift in how the dollar is reacting to tariff tensions. In April, fears of an economic slowdown weighed on the greenback, but now it is gaining traction as a refuge in times of uncertainty, particularly as inflation risks mount—contributing to choppy moves in U.S. equity markets.
As is customary, the earnings season will kick off with reports from major banks and financial institutions. On Tuesday, JPMorgan is set to release its financial results, opening the floodgates for a wave of earnings reports. The image referenced lists several other companies, many of which are market heavyweights.
Following a relatively quiet week due to Independence Day holidays and a lack of major economic data, markets are now gearing up for a steady stream of reports in the coming days. Tuesday will bring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June along with the Empire State manufacturing survey. On Wednesday, the spotlight will shift to the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month. Then, on Thursday, traders will focus on June’s retail sales report, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey, and the weekly jobless claims figures.
The week will conclude with two additional reports on Friday: the June housing starts data and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
June’s CPI report is expected to reflect an uptick in inflation, potentially driven by Trump’s tariff policies. Some analysts believe the tariffs will have an “undeniable” impact on prices, though others remain uncertain.
Despite concerns from both experts and consumers that businesses might pass tariff costs on to buyers, inflation has so far remained relatively moderate this year. The effects of Trump’s aggressive tariff campaign on hard economic data have not yet been clearly reflected—but that may be about to change.
According to Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts, as cited by Wells Fargo Securities, the CPI is expected to show a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June—up from 2.4% the previous month. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to have risen 3% over the same period, compared to a prior gain of 2.8%.
If these numbers come in as expected, it could support the forecasts of analysts who have warned that the costs of Trump’s heavy import tariffs would eventually show up on price tags, as manufacturers, importers, and retailers pass along the burden through the supply chain. Since taking office, Trump has imposed a wide array of tariffs, including a 10% levy on most imports, a 25% duty on foreign automobiles, and tariffs exceeding 50% on Chinese products.
NAS100 Nasdaq Range-Bound: What Traders Should Watch Next US100I'm currently keeping a close eye on the Nasdaq 🧠📊, which is trading within a range-bound structure 📉📈. While we’re seeing some bullish momentum on the NAS100 4-hour chart today ⏱️📈, it’s nothing particularly strong or decisive just yet. I’m waiting for a clear break 🔓 either above or below this current range before considering any trading opportunities 🎯.
In this US100 chart 🖼️, I’ve highlighted key components such as price action, market structure, the prevailing trend, and other important elements of technical analysis 🧩📐.
⚠️ Please remember: this is a market analysis and reflects my personal opinion — not a trade recommendation. Always do your own due diligence 🕵️♂️ before making any trading decisions. This is not financial advice.
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Classic Gap Trade
I see a gap down opening on US30 index.
As always, there is a high chance that this gap is going to be filled.
A bullish imbalance candle and a local change of character CHoCH
indicate a highly probable rise to a gap opening level.
Target - 44300
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NASDAQ: Time For A Pullback?In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the NASDAQ for the week of July 14 - 18th.
The NASDAQ had a strong week, until Tariff Tensions Friday arrived.
This by itself doesn't mean we should start looking for sells. Just like the S&P 500, I'm expecting short term bearishness, as price goes from ERL to IRL.
With Tuesday CPI Data coming, this short term consolidation is to be expected until the news is announced.
Let the markets pick a direction, and flow with it.
Have a plan of action in place so you can react to the price action promptly!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
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Is the Nasdaq in a bubble?On the monthly timeframe, there are no signs of an over-extended, parabolic condition for the Nasdaq Composite(IXIC).
It's interesting to note that for a 25 year period from 1974 to 1999 the overall trend was roughly a positive 23 degree angled climb. We see that again in the current 16 year trend that started in 2009.
Much steeper parabolic periods can be seen in shorter time frames like the 1998-2000 move, where the angle reached 70 degrees. That didn't end well. It's also worth noting that in 1982 and 2020 we saw similar behavior, though slightly less frothy. Both of those periods were also followed by significant retracements.
Maybe we are at the beginning of one of those multi-month, over-extended runs. But not seeing it today. If we are trading at 45,000 or more in 2026, that's a different story...
"NASDAQ 100: THE TECH ROBBERY! – Quick Profits Before Reversal?"🔥 "The NDX NASDAQ 100 INDEX Heist: Bullish Loot & Escape Before the Trap!" 🔥
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US100 Short From Resistance!
HI,Traders !
US100 is weaker than we
Expected and failed to break
The key horizontal level
Around 22868.6 and we are
Now seeing a bearish rejection
So we are locally bearish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Bearish Momentum Builds Below pivot zone USNAS100 Analysis
Price has reversed from its ATH and now shows bearish momentum.
Below 22705, downside targets are 22615 and 22420.
Bullish scenario only valid if price breaks and holds above 22815.
Pivot: 22710
Support: 22615, 22420
Resistance: 22815, 22910
Nasdaq-100 H4 | Swing-low support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracementThe Nasdaq-100 (NAS100) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,509.40 which is a swing-low support that aligns closely with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 22,250.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 22,921.84 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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Nasdaq 100 Dips as Tariffs Spark CautionWhile crypto markets rally, U.S. equities have cooled. The Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.6% following the announcement of new tariffs, particularly those aimed at Canadian goods. Tech stocks are reacting cautiously to these developments, although Nvidia’s record-breaking $4 trillion market cap continues to provide some support for the index.
With major financials such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo reporting Q2 earnings next week, investors will soon get clarity on how corporate America is coping with higher input costs and global trade tensions.
Technical View (Nasdaq 100):
The index is consolidating between resistance at 22,900 and support at 22,600. A break above 22,900 could reignite the tech rally, while a drop below support may see price test 22,400 and potentially 22,000 in coming sessions.