NAS100 - Stock market is waiting for tariffs!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. Maintaining the ascending channel will lead to the continuation of the Nasdaq's upward path to higher targets, but if it does not rise and corrects towards the demand limits, you can buy the Nasdaq index with appropriate reward and risk.
Three months ago, Donald Trump postponed the imposition of severe retaliatory tariffs, granting America’s major trading partners more time to reach new agreements that Washington views as “fairer.” Now, as the White House’s July 9 deadline approaches, only two official trade deals have been finalized—one with the United Kingdom and another with Vietnam. As for China, merely a fragile temporary truce has been reached, which has so far prevented any additional tariffs from being enforced.
Although reports suggest promising progress in negotiations with India, Japan, and South Korea, no final agreements have been secured with these countries yet. Interestingly, talks with the European Union—which had previously stalled—have suddenly taken a positive turn, and prospects for a deal with Canada in the coming days have also improved.
However, given the limited time left, it seems unlikely that trade agreements with all of America’s 18 key partners will be reached before the deadline. This situation has raised a critical question for the markets: Will Trump set a new deadline for the remaining countries, or will the suspended tariffs be reinstated?
The prevailing view is that the U.S. president will once again resort to threats before granting any extensions—this time not merely by reviving the “Liberation Day” tariffs, but also by promising even heavier tariffs to extract the last concessions from the remaining trade partners.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett stated that if no agreements are reached by August 1, tariffs will revert to the levels announced in April. He also emphasized that Washington’s core strategy in these trade talks is to apply maximum pressure. According to Bassett, letters will be sent to various countries, outlining the August 1 deadline for reaching deals. This news, which broke during the market’s closing hours, sparked a wave of risk appetite in the financial markets.
In a week when the U.S. economic calendar is notably devoid of major data releases, investors are focusing their attention on the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting—a document that could offer fresh insights into the trajectory of interest rates for the second half of the year.
June’s strong employment report, which exceeded market expectations, has effectively dashed hopes for an interest rate cut this month. Now, if the positive economic momentum persists, the likelihood of a rate cut in the September meeting may also gradually be priced out by the markets.
According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, U.S. employers announced 47,999 job cuts in June, marking a sharp decline from 93,816 in the previous month. Compared to June of last year, layoffs have dropped by 2%. However, total job cuts in the second quarter of 2025 reached 247,256—a 39% increase from the same period last year (177,391) and the highest second-quarter layoff figure since 2020.
With no significant economic reports scheduled for the coming days, investors will be closely analyzing Wednesday night’s Fed minutes and the limited remarks from central bank officials—statements where every word has the potential to significantly move the markets.
