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$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Growth pulse check: The Empire State Manufacturing Survey kicks off the day — a real-time test of factory sentiment post-summer slowdown. 📘 Fed Beige Book afternoon drop: Key read on regional activity and inflation anecdotes — markets often reposition after release. 💬 Fed parade continues: Bostic, Miran, and Waller keep rate-cut expectations in focus ahead of Thursday’s data risk. ⚠️ Shutdown overhang: Broader data (CPI/PPI/Retail) still paused — traders key off qualitative signals like Beige Book tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Oct) ⏰ 12:10 PM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 12:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 1:00 PM — Christopher Waller (Fed Gov) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — Fed Beige Book ⚠️ Note: Shutdown continues to delay most federal data releases. Beige Book offers the only official economic snapshot this week — high read-through for inflation, wages, and business conditions. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational / informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #BeigeBook #EmpireState #Waller #Bostic #Miran #bonds #yields #inflation #shutdown #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Global Trading News: No More Noise1. The Problem: Too Much Noise, Too Little Clarity In the age of digital speed, financial information travels faster than ever before. Every second, thousands of updates pour in from stock exchanges, economic data feeds, and social media platforms. While access to this information is crucial, the real challenge is filtering signal from noise. For traders and investors, the consequences of acting on misleading or incomplete data can be severe—ranging from missed opportunities to significant financial losses. Many find themselves reacting emotionally to market movements rather than making rational, data-driven decisions. Here’s the reality of modern trading news: Information overload: The average trader consumes 10x more data today than they did a decade ago. Unverified sources: Social platforms and influencer-driven “news” often spread unconfirmed rumors. Delayed reactions: By the time mainstream media reports an event, the market has often already moved. Conflicting analysis: Multiple experts giving contradictory opinions can paralyze decision-making. This environment creates a noise-heavy ecosystem, where clarity is lost and focus diluted. That’s why the future of global trading depends not just on access to data—but on access to refined, verified, and context-driven insights. 2. The Concept: No More Noise – Only Insight “Global Trading News: No More Noise” is more than a headline—it’s a mindset shift. It’s about transforming how traders receive and process global market updates. Instead of drowning in endless feeds, this approach focuses on precision, context, and credibility. a. Filtered Information Flow Instead of providing every minor update, this system curates only market-moving news—those that have a proven impact on price action or sentiment. Macro-economic indicators, central bank decisions, corporate earnings, geopolitical shifts, and commodity trends are prioritized. b. Data-Driven Analysis News without numbers is just noise. Each report is paired with relevant data visualization—charts, volume trends, volatility indexes, and correlation patterns—so traders can instantly see the real market effect behind the headline. c. AI-Powered News Screening Using intelligent algorithms, irrelevant or repetitive information is filtered out. The AI recognizes patterns of manipulation, misinformation, or algorithmic pumping stories, keeping the feed credible and clean. d. Real-Time Global Coverage From New York to Tokyo, from London to Mumbai—the platform ensures 24/7 coverage of major exchanges, currencies, bonds, commodities, and crypto markets. But unlike traditional platforms, the content is localized yet globalized—tailored to highlight how a move in one market impacts another. 3. The Mission: Empower the Modern Trader At the core of “Global Trading News: No More Noise” lies a simple mission—to empower every trader and investor with information that matters. In financial markets, clarity equals confidence, and confidence leads to smarter, faster decisions. Key Objectives: Simplify complexity: Break down macroeconomic data into clear trading insights. Enhance focus: Remove distractions and highlight what truly moves markets. Increase speed: Provide verified insights in real-time for instant action. Build trust: Ensure every piece of information is credible, sourced, and traceable. Whether you’re a day trader chasing volatility, a swing trader identifying trends, or an institutional investor managing global portfolios, the goal is the same—make decisions based on facts, not fear or noise. 4. The Framework: How “No More Noise” Works The global financial world can be divided into multiple verticals—equities, currencies, commodities, bonds, and digital assets. Each responds differently to macro events. The “No More Noise” system organizes news through a five-layer structure designed for clarity and precision. Layer 1: Macro Alerts Tracks and analyzes central bank policies, inflation data, GDP numbers, and geopolitical shifts. Example: “Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid inflation uncertainty—market expects pivot by Q1.” Layer 2: Market Movers Covers stocks, commodities, and currency pairs that show significant volume spikes or trend reversals due to fundamental news or institutional activity. Layer 3: Sector Insights Focuses on industries driving momentum—tech, energy, metals, banking, and pharmaceuticals—linking global developments to sectoral performance. Layer 4: Quant & Sentiment Tools Integrates market sentiment analysis, correlation tracking, and volatility forecasting to help traders validate the emotional tone behind the news. Layer 5: Strategic Analysis Provides commentary from credible financial analysts and economists—offering deeper interpretations rather than just surface-level reporting. 5. The Impact: Transforming Trading Behavior When traders are freed from noise, their behavior changes dramatically: Reduced overtrading: Decisions become data-backed instead of emotional. Improved accuracy: Clearer insights lead to better entry and exit timing. Enhanced portfolio management: Macro and micro factors are balanced effectively. Stronger confidence: Traders operate with purpose, not panic. Moreover, by prioritizing quality over quantity, traders save time—turning market monitoring into a strategic edge rather than a distraction. 6. Global Connectivity, Local Relevance What makes global trading unique today is interconnectivity. A bond yield movement in the U.S. can impact Asian equities; a commodity rally in London can influence Indian inflation data. “Global Trading News: No More Noise” focuses on showing these interlinkages in real-time, allowing traders to: Understand global cause-and-effect relationships. Anticipate market reactions before they happen. Diversify their trading strategies across regions and asset classes. This creates a borderless trading mindset, where every event—no matter where it originates—is understood through a global lens. 7. The Future: Intelligent, Calm, and Data-Driven Markets As artificial intelligence, blockchain data feeds, and quantum computing evolve, the future of trading will rely on smart filtering systems. The age of raw information is ending—the age of interpreted intelligence is beginning. The traders who adapt to this evolution will thrive, not by consuming more, but by understanding better. “Global Trading News: No More Noise” represents this shift—towards mindful trading, where every click, trade, and reaction is intentional and informed. In this future, financial media platforms will no longer compete on who delivers the news first—but on who delivers it right. The market will reward depth over drama, insight over intensity, and facts over frenzy. 8. Why This Matters Now In volatile times—whether it’s global inflation, war tensions, or digital currency disruption—the margin for error in trading decisions is smaller than ever. Every second counts, and every false signal costs. That’s why news quality has become the new competitive advantage. “Global Trading News: No More Noise” isn’t just a tagline—it’s a philosophy for the next generation of market thinkers who value truth, timing, and transparency over hype. Conclusion: The New Era of Trading Clarity The global market doesn’t need more information—it needs better information. In an age where every second brings a new headline, clarity is the ultimate trading edge. “Global Trading News: No More Noise” is a commitment to restore that edge—to make traders think smarter, act faster, and trade with conviction. It’s where insight replaces speculation, and where news becomes a tool for empowerment, not confusion. In this silent revolution of clarity, the markets may still be loud—but the trader will remain calm, focused, and informed. Because when there’s no more noise, there’s nothing left but the truth—and in trading, truth is power.
Education
by GlobalWolfStreet
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 FOMC Minutes drop: Traders zero in on the Fed’s tone around balance sheet runoff and rate-cut timing clues. 📉 Macro sentiment reset: Bond yields + USD volatility remain key — equities tracking real-rate shifts post-minutes. 💬 Fed chorus continues: Barr, Kashkari, and Goolsbee headline a dense speaker lineup shaping policy narrative. 💻 Tech leadership check: Mega-caps face another liquidity test as macro dominates tape action. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 9:20 AM — Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed) remarks ⏰ 9:30 AM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) speech ⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Minutes (September Meeting) ⏰ 3:15 PM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech ⏰ 5:45 PM — Michael Barr (Fed Governor) remarks ⏰ 7:15 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #FOMC #Fed #Powell #Barr #Kashkari #Goolsbee #minutes #bonds #Dollar #economy #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Oct 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Shutdown overhang: The U.S. Trade Deficit release remains at risk; traders lean on Fed commentary for macro tone. 📉 Rates + dollar watch: Treasury yields stay elevated ahead of FOMC Minutes (Wed); AMEX:SPY sensitivity to TVC:DXY remains high. 💬 Fed parade: Five speakers on deck — market parsing for any shift in post-Powell narrative. 💻 Tech + liquidity: $AAPL/ NASDAQ:MSFT flows continue driving AMEX:XLK rotation amid tightening liquidity backdrop. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — U.S. Trade Deficit (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) speech ⏰ 10:05 AM — Michelle Bowman (Fed Vice Chair for Supervision) remarks ⏰ 10:45 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Governor) speech ⏰ 11:30 AM — Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) speech ⏰ 3:00 PM — Consumer Credit (Aug) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #Bostic #Bowman #Kashkari #Miran #tradebalance #shutdown #bonds #Dollar #megacaps #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Breakout watch: buy >124,227, protect 121,585__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The market keeps a bullish drive but stalls beneath a dense HTF resistance band at 124,227–125,650, with intraday digestion. Buyers hold the advantage above 121,585; the next leg needs acceptance above 124,227. Momentum: Bullish 📈, capped by 124,227–125,650; shallow pullbacks while 121,585 holds. Key levels: • Resistances (W/240): 124,227–125,650 (must clear) • Supports (1H–1D): 123,300–123,000 (intra) • 121,585 (4H/12H pivot) • 117,971 (1D pivot) Volumes: HTF normal; 6H/4H moderate; very high on 15m during 124.2k–125.6k tests (catalyst). Multi-timeframe signals: MTF trend filter is up (1D/12H/6H/4H), but a confirmed acceptance >124,227 is required; intraday (2H/1H/30m/15m) ranging tight under R with volume spikes. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY — no directional thrust, consistent with a cautious bullish bias; breakout confirmation still needed. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: dominant uptrend into heavy resistance; favor “buy breakout / buy the dip” and only fade tactically on clean rejection. Global bias: Cautious bullish above 121,585; key invalidation on a close below 121,585. Opportunities: • Breakout buy: Enter on acceptance >124,227 with rising volume; aim for 125,650. • Dip buy: Buy 121,700–121,200 (around 121,585) if HTF structure holds. • Tactical short: Fade 124.2k–125.6k on rejection wick + sell-volume expansion. Risk zones / invalidations: • A decisive break below 121,585 invalidates the bullish bias and opens 117,971. • A 12H/1D close >125,800 invalidates rejection shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Strong US spot BTC ETF inflows — supportive of dip absorption. • Near-term macro tape is light; gold firm and oil up keep the backdrop mixed. • FOMC Minutes (Oct 8) could tilt the risk-on/off regime near 124,227. Action plan: • Breakout long: Entry 124,250–124,450 / Stop: close <124,200–123,650 / TP1 125,000, TP2 125,650, TP3 runner; R/R ~1.8–2.2. • Dip long: Entry 121,700–121,200 / Stop: close below 121,585 / TP1 124,000, TP2 124,900, TP3 125,650; R/R ~2.0–2.5 on clean bounce. • Fade short: Entry 124,200–124,700 / Stop: >125,800 / TP1 123,300, TP2 121,585, TP3 117,971; R/R ~1.5–2.0 on swift rejection. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Higher timeframes stay bullish overall, while intraday frames consolidate beneath resistance with volume spikes acting as catalysts. 1D/12H/6H/4H: Uptrend off 108,709, pausing under 124,227–125,650; above 121,585, digestion favors continuation to 125,650 if acceptance above 124,227 materializes. 2H/1H/30m/15m: Tight range 123,000–124,300; very high volume on attempts into 124.2k–125.6k — a validated break with volume likely carries toward 125k/125,650. Major divergences/confluences: Strong support confluence at 123,300–123,000 and 121,585; HTF volumes neutral vs. intraday high at R — the breakout needs flow confirmation to avoid a fake-out. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ US spot BTC ETF flows remain the dominant driver, while the immediate macro calendar is light and the broader backdrop stays nuanced. Macro events: Solid ETF inflows (ongoing streak), gold firm and oil higher suggest a mixed backdrop; BOJ cautious, EU eyeing looser fiscal rules, US housing softer; FOMC Minutes upcoming. Bitcoin analysis: Institutional/ETP flows described as sticky, supporting dips and trend resilience; technically, validation above 124,227 is required. On-chain data: STH cost basis ~111.6k defended; LTH distribution cooling; options OI reset with softer IV and more neutral skew — constructive backdrop. Expected impact: Bullish bias maintained if a confirmed breakout above 124,227 occurs; otherwise, expect a 123,000/121,585 range. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ The market is bullish yet compressed beneath 124,227–125,650, requiring a confirmed breakout to re-ignite momentum. - Overall trend: bullish/constructive above 121,585. - Most relevant setup: confirmed break >124,227 with volume toward 125,650; alternatively, buy the dip at 121,585 on rejection. - Key macro factor: strong US spot ETF inflows aiding dip absorption. Stay nimble: demand breakout confirmation via closes and volume; otherwise, manage the range and protect risk. ✍️
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Oct 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 NFP risk — but delayed: September Employment Report, unemployment rate, and wages won’t publish if shutdown continues. Markets will run on positioning + PMIs instead. 📉 Labor vacuum: Absence of NFP could amplify volatility as traders trade on speculation. 💬 Fed-heavy Friday: A parade of Fed speakers guides tone into weekend positioning. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 6:05 AM — John Williams (NY Fed) speech ⏰ 8:30 AM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) TV appearance 🚩 At Risk of Delay (shutdown): • 8:30 AM — Employment Report (Sep): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Avg. Hourly Earnings ✅ Still Publishing: ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Services PMI (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 9:30 AM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV) • 1:30 PM — Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) • 1:40 PM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) • 3:30 PM — Stephen Miran (Fed Gov, TV) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #jobs #Fed #Powell #shutdown #ISM #PMI #bonds #Dollar #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Oct 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Jobs + factories double hit: ADP jobs and ISM Manufacturing kick off October with the labor + growth pulse. 📉 Q4 repositioning: Funds reset exposures after quarter-end — volatility risk elevated. 🛢️ Auto lens: Auto sales (TBA) add color on consumer durability. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep) ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Final Manufacturing PMI (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep) ⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #ADP #ISM #manufacturing #jobs #economy #Dollar #bonds #autos #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Bitcoin capped below 115k: plan and invalidations__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is staging a controlled recovery above 111k while stalling beneath a heavy 113.8k–116k supply zone ahead of the 117.97k pivot. The backdrop is constructive, but intraday timeframes still show profit-taking. Momentum: Bullish 📈 on 1D/12H, with active consolidation on 2H–6H after the 114.6k–114.8k rejection. Key levels: • Resistances (HTF): 114.8k–116k (1D/12H), 117.97k (1D), 124.3k (W). • Supports (HTF): 112.4k–111.5k (12H), 110.4k (pivot), 109.3k (6H). Volumes: Normal on 1D, very high intraday on the 114.6k–114.8k fade, moderate on 6H. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H Up; 2H/4H/6H Down (pullback within HTF trend); 1H/30m/15m tactical rebounds at 112.6k–112.9k. Elevated offer-side volumes argue for clear validations before breakout. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY → mild risk-on bias, aligned with HTF momentum; occasional intraday spikes to STRONG BUY, but not persistent. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Context: HTF trend is bullish; favor disciplined dip-buys at supports with confirmation, be cautious below 114.8k–116k. Global bias: Moderately bullish while > 111k; primary invalidation below 110.4k (structure loss). Opportunities: • Buy-the-dip: Buy 112.7k–112.2k on reversal signal; target 114.6k then 115.3k/117.0k. • Breakout: Buy break & hold > 114.8k (30m–1H) aiming for 117.97k. • Tactical sell: Fade clean rejection at 114.6k–115.3k (wick + volume) toward 113.7k then 112.9k. Risk zones / invalidations: A firm break < 112.2k reopens 111.5k–110.4k; a 1D close > 118k invalidates tactical shorts. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Fed: initial 25 bp cut and gradual easing path → gentle risk-on. • Softer USD, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+) → supportive tailwind for BTC. • US shutdown risk + CPI/ISM/NFP week → elevated volatility near key levels. Action plan: • Entry: 112.7k–112.2k (candle reversal + intraday momentum rebuild). • Stop: below 111.8k (aggressive) or below 110.4k (conservative). • TP: 114.6k (TP1) / 115.3k (TP2) / 117.0k (TP3). • R/R guide: ~1.8R (tight stop) up to ~2.5–3R (wide stop) depending on execution/trailing. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall HTF is bullish, MTF is breathing, and LTF is rebounding at demand. 1D/12H: Bullish structure above 111k–112k; compression below 114.8k–116k. A daily close > 114k strengthens odds for 117.97k. 6H/4H/2H: Orderly pullback after 109k→114k impulse; buyer pivot 112.4k–111.9k; sustained upside needs > 113.8k then > 114.6k. 1H/30m/15m: Tactical bid active at 112.6k–112.9k; very high offer-side volumes → wait for confirmations, avoid late chases under 114.8k. Confluences/divergences: Strong confluence 112.4k–111.5k; recent intraday divergences suggest shallow but jumpy pullbacks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mildly supportive (more dovish Fed, softer USD), while on-chain and ETF signals are positive but uneven. Macro events: Fed started easing (−25 bp) with a cautious tone; USD softer, gold at highs, oil lower (OPEC+); US shutdown risk and CPI/ISM/NFP in focus. Bitcoin analysis: ETF inflows turned positive on the day but 7D trend is fragile → tactical support to dip-buys; technical structure reclaimed with firm BTC dominance. On-chain data: STH cost basis near ~111k is pivotal; LTH realized sizable profits; derivatives deleveraging and elevated put skew → respect downside shock risk. Expected impact: Supportive yet not euphoric, fitting a “buy dips” approach while 110.4k holds; above 114.8k, macro could help extend toward 117.97k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is recovering above 111k but sellers defend 114.8k–116k. - Overall trend: Constructively bullish on HTF, with a breathing MTF. - Best setup: Disciplined buy at 112.7k–112.2k with confirmations; extend if break & hold > 114.8k toward 117.97k. - Key macro: Gradual Fed easing + softer USD provide a tailwind. Stay selective: demand confirmations at offers and watch 110.4k as the key line in the sand.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Q3 closeout: Last trading day of September = quarter-end rebalancing flows in equities and bonds. 💵 Fed watch: Multiple Fed speakers across the day keep policy tone in focus. 💻 Mega-cap drift: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:NVDA leadership remains sensitive to yields + growth data. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul, 20-city) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep, Conf. Board) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep) 🗣️ Fed Speakers: • 6:00 AM — Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair) • 9:00 AM — Susan Collins (Boston Fed) • 1:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed) • 3:30 PM — Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed, TV appearance) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #JOLTS #ConsumerConfidence #CaseShiller #PMI #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 29 → Oct 3, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Month/Q3 closeout: Quarter-end rebalancing + fund flows set tone early in the week. 🚩 Jobs Week: ADP (Wed) + NFP (Fri) will dominate macro narrative and Fed expectations. 💻 Mega-cap rotation: NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT drive tech leadership amid yield volatility. 🌐 Housing + confidence: Home sales + Case-Shiller + sentiment test consumer resilience. 💵 Rates & Fed tone: Packed Fed speaker slate keeps policy path in play alongside data. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Mon 9/29 ⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Aug) Tue 9/30 ⏰ 🚩 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Jul) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Sep) ⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Sep) Wed 10/1 ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ADP Employment (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Aug) ⏰ TBA — Auto Sales (Sep) Thu 10/2 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Aug) Fri 10/3 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Unemployment Rate (Sep) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Average Hourly Earnings (Sep) ⏰ 10:00 AM — ISM Services (Sep) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #NFP #ADP #Fed #Powell #jobs #unemployment #wages #housing #consumerconfidence #PMI #bonds #Dollar #megacaps
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC | 111k holds: tactical long bias, eyes on 113.1k__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is consolidating above 111,040, trapped in a tight range with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias, while intraday remains pressured below 113,129. The 111k area acts as the market’s key pivot. 🔁 Momentum: Range with bullish tilt 📈 — higher TFs positive (1D/12H), intraday needs a reclaim above 113,129. Key levels: • Resistances (TF): 113,129–114,384 (240/1D, immediate ceiling), 117,900 (1D, upper cap). • Supports (TF): 111,040 (240/1D, major pivot), 110,440 (intraday), 107,255 (1D). Volumes: Normal on daily; moderate on 4H/30m downside pushes — no standalone catalyst. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H bullish, 4H/2H/1H mixed-to-bearish below 113,129; a reclaim/hold > 113,129 opens 114,384. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: NEUTRAL BUY (stronger on 15m) — confirms the range‑bullish bias and favors buy‑the‑dip above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: higher‑timeframe uptrend, prefer tactical longs above 111,040. 🎯 Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY while 111,040 holds; key invalidation on a close below 111,040 (align TF to your horizon). Opportunities: • Defensive long: bullish reaction confirmed above 111,040; add on break/hold > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Breakout long: close and hold > 113,129 (30m/15m ≥ 2 bars) to target 114,384. • Tactical sell: clean rejection at 112.9k–113.1k with selling volume, target a pullback to 111,040 (reduced size vs HTF filter). Risk zones / invalidations: • A confirmed loss of 111,040 → increases risk toward 110,440 then 107,255. • Reclaim & hold > 113,129 → negates intraday pressure and unlocks 114,384. Macro catalysts: • Fed: -25 bps cut with dovish guidance — medium‑term risk support, validates buy‑the‑dip. • Dollar (DXY): bounce risk — near‑term headwind, argues for staged entries. • ETF flows: recent modest inflows, neutral‑to‑slightly constructive — not a trigger but doesn’t cap the technical upside. Action plan: • Entry: 111,300–111,500 on re‑acceptance/HL confirmation (15m/30m); add if holding > 112,300 then > 113,129. • Stop: 110,850 (below swing & S1). • TP1: 112,950; TP2: 113,129–113,300; TP3: 114,300–114,400. • R/R: ≈ 2.0–2.5x depending on execution and adds. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall, higher timeframes lean bullish while lower timeframes remain pressured until 113,129 is reclaimed. 🧭 1D/12H/6H: Bullish bias while holding 111,040; clearing 113,129 then 114,384 would enable compression toward 117,900. 4H/2H/1H/30m/15m: Intraday pressure below 113,129, moderate volume on sell pushes; dip‑buys near 111,040 remain preferred as long as the pivot holds. Key divergences: HTF Up vs LTF Down → favors “buy the dip” at support, confirmed by volume and reclaim of prior caps (112,300 → 113,129). __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro backdrop is modestly supportive (dovish Fed), but a dollar bounce could cap near‑term rallies; ETF flows are constructive but not decisive. ⚖️ Macro events: Fed -25 bps and still‑dovish dot plot support risk; a technical DXY bounce remains a short‑term counterweight. Bitcoin analysis: Defending ~111k near the 100D; gradual recovery toward the 50D plausible if 113,129/114,384 are reclaimed; institutional/ETF tone mildly positive. On-chain data: Not provided — technicals and flows drive the lens. Expected impact: Macro is broadly risk‑friendly, but execution should be paced under resistance; prefer staged entries above 111k. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is ranging above 111,040 with a higher‑timeframe bullish bias and intraday headwinds below 113,129. - Trend: bullish in HTF, neutral/paused intraday until 113,129 is reclaimed. - Setup: buy the dip above 111,040, then add on breakout > 113,129 toward 114,384. - Macro: Dovish Fed supports the case, while a firm DXY can slow upside. Stay nimble: watch 111,040 defense and the 113,129 reclaim to trigger the next leg.
Long
by Ox_kali
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Month-end positioning: Flows light as traders prep for Thursday’s 🚩 GDP + Jobless Claims. 💻 Mega-cap drift: Tech leadership remains central with $AAPL/ NASDAQ:NVDA volatility post-Powell. 💵 Rates + housing: Home affordability narrative continues to weigh on broader risk tone. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug) ⏰ 4:10 PM — San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #housing #Powell #economy #Dollar #bonds #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Sept 22 → Sept 26, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Post-Fed positioning: Traders continue to recalibrate after last week’s cut + SEP; rates & USD tone drive risk. 💻 Mega-cap watch: NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA guidance/AI chatter keeps AMEX:XLK leadership in focus. 🛢️ Energy & FX: Oil swings and a firm dollar remain cross-asset headwinds. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) Tue 9/23 ⏰ 9:45 AM — S&P Global Flash PMIs (Sep) (Mfg & Services). Wed 9/24 ⏰ 10:00 AM — New Home Sales (Aug). Thu 9/25 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly). ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q2, Third Estimate). ⏰ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Aug). ⏰ 10:00 AM — Existing Home Sales (Aug). Fri 9/26 ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Personal Income & Outlays (Aug) incl. PCE/Core PCE. ⏰ 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final, Sep). ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PCE #GDP #PMI #joblessclaims #housing #consumer #Fed #Dollar #oil #megacaps
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
BTC Playbook: Buy Dips >115.2k, Trigger >116,217_________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is coiling just below 116,217 with an underlying uptrend, but nearby supply is capping advances. Buyers keep defending 115,200–115,300, where a rebound printed on very high volumes. Momentum: Moderately bullish 📈 — higher‑timeframe uptrend, but stalled under 116,217 (trigger pivot). Key levels: • Resistances (4H–1D) : 116,217 (240 PH); 117,500–118,000 (6H supply); 124,176 (ATH/720 PH). • Supports (2H–1D) : 115,200–115,300 (240 PL); 114,471 (720 PL); 111,966 (W PH turned support). Volumes: Very high on 30m at 115,208 (absorption), moderate on 1H, normal elsewhere. Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H/4H/2H/1H are Up ; 30m rebounding, 15m a bit hesitant — constructive while 115,200–115,300 holds; acceptance above 116,217 opens 117,500–118,000. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRAL BUY (mild risk‑on), yet it contrasts with a cautious 1D macro regime — warrants smaller size and confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic stance: primary uptrend intact, but adopt a patient, selective approach until 116,217 is accepted. Global bias: NEUTRAL BUY above 115,200–115,300; key invalidation on confirmed breaks below 114,471 (H1–H2). Opportunities: • Buy the dip : tactical longs at 115,200–115,300 on signal, targeting 115,900/116,217 then 117,500–118,000. • Breakout buy : long on 4H/12H acceptance above 116,217, aiming 117,500–118,000 then 124,176. • Tactical sell : only on repeated failures under 116,217 + loss of 115,208, targeting 114,471 then 113,421 (reduced size, counter‑trend). Risk zones / invalidations: • Below 115,208 : risk of acceleration toward 114,471 (structural damage). • > 116,217 : momentum flips in favor of 117,500–118,000. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): • Loose financial conditions and equities at/near ATHs — liquidity tailwind. • BLS CPI methodology report delay — near‑term uncertainty. • US spot ETF net inflows slightly positive + fresh USDT issuance — constructive liquidity. Action plan: • Plan A (Breakout) : Entry 116,250–116,350 (retest), Stop 115,900, TP1 116,900, TP2 117,800, TP3 124,000–124,200, R/R ≈ 1:2–1:3. • Plan B (Dip buy) : Entry 115,260–115,360, Stop 115,080–115,100, TP1 115,900, TP2 116,217, TP3 117,500–118,000, R/R ≈ 1:2+. • Plan C (Tactical sell) : Entry 115,150–115,250 (2H < 115,208 + failed pullback), Stop 115,550, TP1 114,480, TP2 113,420, R/R ≈ 1:2.5. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs remain bullish while LTFs work a tight range just below the trigger. 1D/12H/6H: Up trend with higher lows; 116,217 is the key trigger toward 117,500–118,000 and 124,176. 4H/2H/1H: compression between 115,200–115,300 and 116,217; buy‑the‑dip valid while 115,200 holds and volume confirms. 30m/15m: 30m backed by Very High Volume at 115,208; 15m still cautious — require swift confirmation above 116,000/116,217. Divergences/confluences: risk‑on tilt (Indicator = NEUTRAL BUY) vs cautious 1D macro regime — argues for smaller initial size and persistence on breaks. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is broadly supportive for risk, yet near‑term uncertainty is rising and may dictate the breakout timing. Macro events: • Fed: loose financial conditions; equities (growth, S&P 500) at/near ATHs — liquidity tailwind. • Labor: unemployment at 4.3% with signs of softening — potential macro volatility. • BLS: key CPI methodology report delayed — added near‑term uncertainty. • ECB/BOJ: mixed ECB messaging; BOJ mulls partial ETF unwind — liquidity watchpoint. Bitcoin analysis: • Price/structure: coil below 124k; post‑FOMC volatility compressed (<3%) — expansion likely on catalyst/flow. • Flows: US ETF volumes back, net flows modestly positive; fresh USDT issuance — constructive backdrop. • Larger holders: accumulation by 100–1,000 BTC wallets; alt rotation debated. On-chain data: • Majority of supply in profit above ~115.2k (key line); elevated option OI into Sept 26 expiry (gamma risk). • Derivatives: squeeze then flush — market re‑balanced. Expected impact: • Liquidity/flows support a constructive bias; above 116,217, odds improve for 117,500–118,000. Sustained loss of 115,208 re‑opens 114,471/113,421. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ Bullish coil under a nearby trigger. - Trend: bullish/NEUTRAL BUY , but requires confirmation above 116,217. - Prime setup: confirmed breakout > 116,217 after firm defenses at 115,200–115,300, targeting 117,500–118,000 then 124,176. - Macro: loose financial conditions but higher uncertainty (BLS, labor) — flow‑driven timing. Focus on acceptance above 116,217 and defense of 115,200–115,300 to calibrate position size. 🧭
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Ox_kali
NZDUSD - Follow The Bulls AGAIN!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈NZDUSD has been overall bullish trading within the rising broadening wedge marked in blue. This week, NZDUSD has been retesting the lower bound of the wedge. Moreover, the green zone is a strong structure. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the lower blue trendline and green structure. 📚 As per my trading style: As #NZDUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for trend-following bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
Long
by TheSignalyst
6
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Friday, Sept 12, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 📉 Markets digest 🚩 CPI + ECB shocks — Friday closes the week with sentiment checks. 🚩 Consumer mood in focus: UMich prelim survey drives inflation expectations + spending tone. 📦 Trade & price gauges: Import/export prices fill in the inflation picture post-CPI/PPI. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 8:30 AM — Import & Export Prices (Aug) ⏰ 🚩 10:00 AM — UMich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, Sept) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #UMich #inflation #Fed #consumer #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week. 🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility. 📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
USD/JPY - Top Down Analysis 🟣 Monthly Chart (Macro Structure) Context: Price has been ranging within a broad band between 162 resistance and 138–140 support. Current Zone: Sitting mid-range near 147–148, right under a heavy monthly supply block (150–152). Bias: Until 150+ breaks clean, upside is capped. Structure suggests more downside liquidity hunts. 🔵 Weekly Chart (Swing Bias) Supply Zone: Weekly supply at 150–152 rejected strongly. Trendline: Rising liquidity channel (higher lows), but capped at supply. Order Flow: Repeated rejections indicate sellers still control the higher timeframe. Bias: Bearish toward the liquidity resting around 145. Key Levels: Resistance: 150–152 Support: 144–145 🟢 Daily Chart (Refined Structure) Supply Reaction: Strong rejection from the 61.8% retrace within the weekly supply zone. SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Resting neatly at 145 handle, aligning with trendline support. Bias: Lower-high structure under supply → daily order flow favors continuation down. ⏱ 1H Chart (Execution Layer) Supply Zone: 147.7–147.9 (confluent with 71% fib retrace & weak resistance). Reaction: Intraday rejection already showing weakness. Next Path: Break of weak support at 147.0 would confirm continuation toward 146.8 → 145.5. Intraday Bias: Sell rallies back into 147.7–147.9.
Short
by Jibzy_Trades
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu). 📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive. 💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug) ⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly) ⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
BIDU 1D: triangle breakoutBIDU 1D: triangle breakout + real-world AI deployment boosts bulls Baidu (BIDU) breaks out of a triangle within a falling channel on the daily chart, with solid volume, reclaim of the 50MA, and approach to the 200MA. $90.09 flips into support. Targets stretch to $105.47 / $113.68 / $124.06 (Fibo levels). Fundamentally, Car Inc just launched a robo-car rental service powered by Baidu’s Apollo unit. Fully autonomous, bookable for 4 hours to 7 days — this is not future tech, it’s live now. With a $32.6B market cap and low P/E (~12), BIDU looks positioned for revaluation if sentiment shifts. Tactical setup: entry by market or retest of $90, stop below $82. When the robot drives customers - you just drive the trade.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by TotoshkaTrades
3
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Tuesday, Sept 9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines 🚩 Small Biz Pulse: NFIB report before the open — insight into hiring & inflation expectations. 🍏 Apple Mega-Cap Event: 1 PM ET — expected iPhone 17 lineup, Apple Watch, AirPods updates. Mega-cap headline risk for NASDAQ:AAPL and $XLK. 📉 Tape Watch: Traders positioning ahead of 🚩 PPI (Wed) and 🚩 CPI (Thu). 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) ⏰ 🚩 6:00 AM — NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug) ⏰ 10:00 AM — Wholesale Inventories (Jul, rev.) ⏰ 🍏 1:00 PM — Apple Product Launch Event ⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #AAPL #AppleEvent #NFIB #inflation #tech #MegaCap
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Follow-Up: Non-Farm Moves from FridayHi All, Following up on the range (size of the move) after non-farm on Friday to see how close our range expectation estimates were (see the earlier video post linked here for that). The actual number came in pretty poor and worse than expected at 22k (vs 75k expected). The move on the Non-farm release itself was actually quite muted with roughly a 20pt move on both sides of our VWAP starting point. But the real move came around 30 minutes into the US open where we saw a quick decline down to our lower boundary (50pts lower at 6470) and then briefly over-ran to 6450. But we settled and that 6470 became support for most of the session before reverting back to that declining VWAP to finish the day around 6490. So, what's the lesson here: a bit of time pre-framing the possibilities for moves in either direction using a combination of stats (ATR, standard deviation of range), other technical analysis tools (support/resistance, VWAP, vol profile) along with experience can help frame the day and the important levels. Use this to start to decide what tools to pull out of the toolbox (trading strategies) and where to initiate trades. If you find this helpful and would like to see more please let me know. Happy Trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JeffBoccaccio
1