NASDAQ Relief rally to 18000 ahead?Nasdaq (NDX) finally hit yesterday our long-term bearish Target (17130), which we called a while ago (March 12, see chart below) but was postponed due to the Double Top formation:
The index is now on a mixed sentiment as even though it is on a correction sequence below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), the 1D RSI hit the 30.00 oversold limit as this Bearish Leg almost completed a -8.50% decline.
During the previous Bearish Leg of the multi-month Channel Up pattern, the index had a relief rally towards the 0.786 Fib, after an initial -8.50% decline. We can see that this took place on the 0.3 Fib (blue) from the top.
As a result we expect a short-term (at least) bounce to 18000. As long as the index doesn't break above the (blue) Channel Down and in particularly close a 1D candle above the 0.786 Fib (18150), we can expect a Lower Low after this relief rally. If it does close above it, we will resume most likely the long-term bullish trend earlier and we will update our position.
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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
Nasdaq 4h Daily Commentary
"#Nasdaq : On the 4-hour chart, there's a clear indication that the price continues to move downwards. If we are bearish, I expect to see the price fill the liquidity gap and then break the previous low, directing the liquidity in Tue 16 Orderblock. However, if we break the last bearish defense in the chart, it will lead us to anticipate a rally upwards. I will provide daily updates on the 4-hour charts. If you have any questions or something you would like me to include in my analysis tomorrow, please leave it in the comment section below.
Good luck to everyone in their trading endeavors!"
$SPX over perform NQ | Shift towards valueBeen tracking this one for weeks now as we've formed a bottom and reclaimed support.
We think across markets, we're seeing a macro shift away from speculative tech and towards value. TVC:SXXP (European SPX) could be forming a bottom vs SPX as well.
What this over performance could look like remains to be seen. Could be more defensive in a downward move or if we catch support, it could be over performance to the upside.
Regardless, the real message here is the shift away from US tech for the foreseeable future.
Finally breaking through to bull side RSI on the weekly and AO flipping bullish.
not touching NQ for a good while.
Something to note is the original support bottom on this chart was the Nov '21 top across markets and Jan '23 was market bottom.
NQ1! SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello,Friends!
NQ1! pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is obviously falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 17886.00 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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Nasdaq Weekly Analysis Sure, here's the corrected text:
We see the price bouncing from Mon 10 OCT '22 after a year and a half of bearish market and going directly to retest the all-time high on Mon 22 Nov '21 again by MON 22 JAN '24. However, it starts to move towards a new all-time high, but with limited liquidity hindering further price increase. We've already witnessed a significant bullish move, and it's time for the market to correct itself. We've observed a weekly candle breaking the market structure forcefully towards the order block from Tue 02 Jan '24 and breaking the 50% retracement level from Mon 23 Oct '23 low to the all-time high. We anticipate the price to continue being bearish to shake out buyers and accumulate new liquidity if we aim to reach a new all-time high.
Our focal point in the NASDAQ for the 2Q is the breaker from Mon 24 Jul above the 50% Fibonacci level of the bullish leg and between 0.6/0.7 of the Fibonacci level to turn bullish. Breaking Mon 23 Oct '23 liquidity support would put us in a significantly bearish condition.
SELL NASDAQAs you can see on the chart,
The market has depleted all the buyers power in the last up move (as shown on the chart) and got overtaken by the sellers.
Now we'll wait for the market to go up to our Selling zone at 17369.62, SL and TP as sat on the chart.
For further questions doon't hesitate to ask!
NQ-M2024: Q2 positional short trade setuphello TradingView members,
after all kinds of analysis done, when possible future events taken into account, now it is time to translate into risk management analysis and bias. this is related only to the current leg, we may go lower than the target as long the stop-loss is not triggered.
the idea is about sharing this setup is to allow also others to consider a possibility, to think about a scenario that may mature into the right trade setup.
do not treat the whole as holy bible but as risk management practice for a bias. it is just an idea. personally, I do trade this setup also in narrower time frames and I would scalp in addition during the process, but each person has own strategy and own approach to the market and trading the market.
feel free to comment, try to do that in a productive manner, so the oversight over this idea would allow fine tuning and improvements. let us see how the market to show this setup in a hindsight. again, feel free to comment and to contact me directly.
sincerely, all the best,
Fluke
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen
most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan ,
so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market
times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral
so t-bill market happend this method
But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now
So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it
and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today
Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
So market topped out
NASDAQ: This is a short term correction leading to 21,500.Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.414, MACD = -64.490, ADX = 50.187) but the 1W RSI is still bullish (RSI = 56.510). You can see the reason on this chart. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that is supported by the 1W MA50 for the past 13 months. The current pullback can be seen as a phase similar to the consolidation of August-November 2020 that resumed the uptrend afterwards almost as high as the 4.0 Fibonacci extension level. The RSIs are very much alike as well, under LH trendlines. Consequently our long term target is slightly under the 4.0 Fib (TP = 21,500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NASDAQ Emphatically below its 1D MA50 after +5 months!Nasdaq (NDX) is on the pull-back process, a correction that we called on our March 12 idea (see chart below) when the index reached the top of its 1 year Channel Up:
Even as recently as last week (see chart below) we called for the ideal sell entry and set a 17500 Target:
As you can see, the index emphatically broke and closed below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday for the first time in more than 5 months (April 04 also closed below it but only marginally). That is technically as strong bearish break-out signal.
The idea now is that we want the index to hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been intact since November 06 2023, see how the market reacts and then determine if that is a low or not. Technically if it replicates the August 18 2023 Low, we should be expecting a Low on the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level at 17,150 at least, which also happens to be just above Support 1.
The decline on the Aug 18 2023 Low was of the -8.52% magnitude, so that gives us a 16900 downside limit. We don't expect the pull-back to go that low though this time. A fair bottom signal can be when the 1D RSI hits 35.00 or the bottom of its Channel Down, similar to what took place on August 18 2023.
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SP500 Forecast: Navigating Bearish Trends Towards New All-Time HThe S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high."
Cela semble indiquer que vous prévoyez une baisse temporaire du S&P 500 vers les niveaux de prix mentionnés, avant qu'il ne reprenne sa tendance haussière et crée de nouveaux sommets historiques.
User
traduit moi ça en anglais
ChatGPT
"The S&P 500 is bearish and heading towards the price zone of 4499.50 and 4430.50 before rising to create a new all-time high.
NASDAQ Will the 1D MA50 hold or break and start a correction?Nasdaq (NDX) marginally broke and closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week but quickly recovered on Friday and this week has established its price action above it. Still it is under Lower Highs following the March 21 Double Top.
It is a fact that the 1D MA50 hasn't been broken in 5 months (since November 03 2023) so last week is the first bearish sign after much time, but the quick recovery leaves a neutral, to say the least, tone. However, the (dashed) Channel Up is already broken downwards, so we will wait for a final bearish confirmation, with the condition being another 1D candle closing below the 1D MA50.
If that happens, we expect a Channel Down to emerge similar to July - October 2023. In that case, we will be looking on the short-term for a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test, with a minimum Target at 17500.
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NASDAQ Below the MA50 (1d) for the first time since November.Nasdaq crossed yesterday under the MA50 (1d) for the first time since November 3rd 2023, as well as the 5 month Channel Up.
This is a major sell signal as last time it did that coming on a Channel Up (August 9th 2023), it initially dipped to the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 17450 (Fibonacci 0.236 as well as a little over Support (1)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has been on a Channel Down / Bearish Divergence since January 24th. Additional strong bearish signal at least for the short term.
Please like, follow and comment!!
Chart Idea - NQ Short -- 3/27/2024I am short on NQ if it breaks 18457. It touched the support two times already. MACD and RSI are pointing towards the downtrend in short term. I believe it should come down into golden pocket where you can see the FVG as well, fill it first and then decide where to go from there.
Short setup on NQ
Entry: Take short if 18457 level breaks
SL: 18527
TP: 18381 (0.5 fib level)
Nasdaq Prepares for Retracement Amidst USD MomentumThe Nasdaq, exhibits robust momentum as Friday begins However, signs indicate a potential retracement on the horizon, especially as observed in correlated pairs like EUR/USD. A pullback would offer the Nasdaq, along with the DJ and S&P500 indices, an opportunity to consolidate before resuming upward movement. Market participants are bolstering their positions in the Greenback, anticipating the Federal Reserve to scale back its projected interest rate cuts from three to at most two. This shift is prompted by ongoing economic data signaling a healthy pace of growth in the US economy.
Despite a lack of major economic releases scheduled for Friday, investors will closely monitor speeches from three US Federal Reserve officials. Foremost among them is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled to address the market around 13:00 GMT.
In summary, the Nasdaq prepares for a potential retracement amidst USD momentum, with investors eyeing upcoming Fed speeches for further market cues.
This trading strategy is oriented towards scalping. Please ensure careful management of your funds if you decide to replicate our personal trading approach.