Optionstrading
FDX Price Analysis (Short to Long Trade Idea) FDX Analysis:
On Feb 16th Sep. 2022, FDX sold off massively to create a huge gap ranging from $164.36 to $201.93. Before beginning a move back to the upside to fill this gap, FDX first dropped to a major demand zone at $132.83 - $141.26 which was also in confluence with the monthly chart 200 MA/EMA. It then ranged between $147 - $160 from the beginning of October to the beginning of November before finally breaking the 164.36 mark to begin the larger gap fill between $164.36 - $201.93. After the breakout, FDX began to consolidate in a rising wedge while partially filling the gap midway before rejecting the weekly 20EMA at 182.40. As of now, FDX has broken below this rising wedge and is retracting to retest lower timeframe supply area to either create a head and shoulders pattern or maybe even a close double bottom (lower higher). Dec 9th, 2022 daily candle attempted to test this area and rejected it while also rejecting the 9EMA on the daily.
Trade Idea:
We are watching for a small move up to retest the supply area, hopefully getting a touch of the support line (short green line) at the rising wedge to show that it has turned resistance (Note: This area of interest is marked by the red circle). This would be ideal because we would get a better entry closer to the stop loss with more confirmation and a better risk/reward. Just in case, watch for a continued move down below $170.08.
We are looking to enter a short term put swing to target to the support area between $161.80 - $164.36 and the intermediate uptrend line (larger green line) for a take profit (NOTE: This take profit area is marked by a yellow circle. After this play, we are watching to see if we can get confirmation for a bounce at this area for a continuation not only to the upside to fill the rest of the gap between $182.40 - $201.93 but to also get a 5th touch of the major downtrend area (large downward slanted red lines). So basically that will possibly be another trade opportunity in the near future.
SN: FDX has earnings on Tuesday, Dec 20th 2022 which would we be key in the watch the reaction at that support zone (green area below rising wedge) and intermediate uptrend (upward slanted green lines). ALSO NOTE, there is a strong resistance/supply area above between $189.30 - $195.33 which is a crash course with the 200MA/EMA on the daily timeframe. This could be where we see price meet supply, the 200MA/EMA, and the major downtrend area (large downward slanted red lines).
CAR Avis Budget Group Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the CAR Avis Budget Group options chain, i would buy the $205 strike price Puts with
2022-11-4 expiration date for about
$4.10 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TCOM Trip(.)com Group Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the TCOM Trip(.)com Group options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $35 strike price Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$1.77 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
FL Hedged Options StrategyEveryone knows Foot Locker. While athletic footwear sales were down during the pandemic, they're back with a vengeance as work-from-home and the athleisure aesthetic have only grown in popularity (estimated to be a $77 billion business by 2025.) To consumers, sneakers hit many of these elements: practical necessity, recreation and exercise, personal style, luxury fashion, status symbol, political statement. "Sneakerheads" will wait hours in line for new shoe releases and Foot Locker is positioned as the top destination for launch parties. It also partners with official sports teams to sell licensed merchandise, and recently acquired Tokyo-based specialty footwear store Atmos as well as Warehouse Shoes (WSS). New CEO Mary Dillon has also promised to help the company grow its e-commerce division, something she did for Ulta quite successfully.
Technically, it looks like a rising wedge is forming... but how can investors be certain share prices will fall with so much talk of a Santa Claus rally into the holiday season and stocks rising from the Fed's confirmation of a gentler rate hike this week?
Here's an example of a hedged options strategy that can make up to 17% -- capped at slightly above the top of the rising wedge. In exchange, it allows FL room to fall up to 38% before losing any of the investment.
Buy 1 $35 call
Sell 1 $42.5 call
Sell 2 $22.5 puts
Exp 1/19/24
Capital requirement: $4473
DISNEY - POTENTIAL SHORTDisney was down trending on the 4H timeframe from Nov. 1st to Nov. 9th 22. After a pullback to the .618 fib level, price from the stock began to consolidate and price condensed. Dec 6th price broke out of the consolidation and retested on Dec 13th.
The Price Action of Disney stock is currently creating a Bearish Pennant . If price can break $92 and reject successfully, a short could be profitable.
Trade Plan 12/14/2022
TP1>
if we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 4054, we can test > 4081 > 4141 > 4186 > 4207 > 4221
TP2>
if we Open/Trade below MAIN POC 4054 > we can test > 4035 > 3995 > 3980 > 3960 > 3934 > 3914 (LIS - Bulls Trapped)
*All those levels will be INVALID as tomorrow 2:00 PM we will have FOMC Interest Rates REPORT ! GET READY for LOTTO TRADES. $ES can move again +100/150 handles.... Yep, believe me or not we are going to survive tomorrow also !!
Daily PIN BAR candle
fading all the CPI pre-mkt move.
STRONG HIGH = SUPER BEARISH / REVERSAL
Reason I'm Flat and waiting to short, we have FOMC Tomorrow 12/14/2022 by 2:00pm.
UROY Uranium Royalty Corp Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the UROY Uranium Royalty Corp options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $2.5 strike price Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$0.22 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.