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$BTC breaks $115k invalidates Wave 5 -- still Wave 4 correction.So it was a long squeeze after all, and one that was coming.
The initial thoughts were that we're on a Wave 5 up and counting:
But we're brought back down to earth as CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaks below $115k, invalidating a Wave 5 count.
So, it's official: we're still on a Wave 4 correction, which can go as low as 0.618 fib towards $112k.
Now painting a likely scenario given that Wave 2 correction only moved 0.236 fib ~ 0.328 fib (Wave 2 & Wave 4 often contrast):
This could play out till end July or even all the way into early August, which if comes to fruition, could signal for a bullish August.
And August has historically almost always been a bearish month (8 red historical months out of 12).
Pinch me.
GER40 in Motion: This Setup Speaks Volumes 🌅 Good morning, my friends,
I’ve put together a fresh GER40 analysis just for you. Even if the 1-hour timeframe shows some upward momentum, I fully expect the price to reach my target level of **24,050**.
I'm holding firm until that level is hit.
Every single like from you is a massive source of motivation for me to keep sharing analysis. Huge thanks to everyone supporting with a tap!
GBP/JPY Breakdown Alert - Bears Taking Control!💙 GBP/JPY Resistance Rejection ! SELL Setup Activated!
👩💻 Dear traders,
After analyzing GBP/JPY on the 1H timeframe, we have a clean short opportunity developing from a key resistance zone around 199.00 – 199.26. Price has stalled and rejected strongly, signaling potential for a bearish move.
Bias – Bearish
🎯 Target – 198.20
🎯 Target – 197.90
🎯 Final Target – 197.70
🛑 Safe Stop Loss – 199.26
📊 Reasoning:
– Price rejected a clear resistance/supply zone
– Red box marks historical rejection area
– Yellow arrows indicate downside momentum zone
– Bearish pressure forming at the top of the range
– Excellent intraday short with clean R:R structure
🍀 Stay patient, trust your levels, and trade smart!
BITCOIN Is this just a giant Bull Flag?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is basically on its first strong pull-back since the July 14 All Time High (ATH), as it is the 3rd straight red day going from roughly $120300 to below $115000 as of this moment.
Technically this Channel Down pull-back looks like a Bull Flag to the uptrend that started following the June 22 Low. The 1D RSI pattern is similar to the May 22 - 30 fractal, which was also a correction that started after a Channel Up and initially hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), only to rebound a settle for a last dip lower closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
If the 1D MA50 fails to contain the current correction, we may again be faced with a slightly more prolonged pull-back, which may be translated into an Accumulation Phase that could eventually lead to prices above $130000 by September.
Do you think that will be the case or we will see an instant rebound? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC SHORT TP:113,500 25-07-2025We’re looking for a clean short from 116,200 to 116,600, aiming for targets between 113,200 and 113,600.
This move offers an average 3.5 RR on the 2-hour timeframe, and we expect it to play out within 24 hours.
Technical context: This looks like a simple bearish continuation after recent price action. Momentum has shifted and this setup offers a clean entry post-manipulation.
Manage your stop-loss according to your strategy and stay updated for the next move.
We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
If price doesn’t move within the expected time, the trade becomes invalid.
JOHNSON & JOHNSON Sell opportunity on a Double Resistance.It's been 9 months (October 11 2024, see chart below) since our last Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) analysis, where we gave a very timely sell signal that surgically hit our $141.00 Target:
The Channel Down has since broke to the upside and a new Higher Lows structure has emerged but with a clear Resistance Zone for the time being. At the same time, the price is also just below the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the September 04 2024 High.
With the 1D RSI overbought (same as on February 25 2025), we don't give the upside much room to go, so we turn bearish here, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci extension and Higher Lows trend-line at $160.00.
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Bearish retest or deviation for Bitcoin117000 is key. it’ll decide whether this is a bearish retest or just a deviation. i believe it’s a bearish retest and we’re setting up for 110-114 next.
last drop came when price kept failing to hold above EQ. now we’re below the EQ of the ath/previous ath range. if price can’t reclaim that either, a deeper drop is likely. a 12h close above EQ could open the path toward 120-121k, but that’s the less probable case in my view.
why? nasdaq and spx are in premium zones (fib extensions), and holidays are near for big players. as profit taking hits there, pressure will echo here. simple cause, predictable effect.
USDCHF sellUSD/CHF is currently in a downtrend, with the US Dollar exhibiting weakness throughout the year. From a technical standpoint, the pair appears poised for further decline, given the formation of a bearish flag. If considering this trade, it's essential to prioritize risk management or look for a potential retest of the flag's resistance level (or the apex of an ascending wedge, if applicable) before entering a short position.
Trading stocks using Dr. Elder's "Three Screen Method"The first thing I do is check the weekly chart. Here I see excellent price divergence relative to the MACD indicator
Then I switched to the daily chart and saw the same excellent divergence as on the weekly chart.
The hourly chart also showed excellent divergence. placed a pending buy order above the candle marked with an arrow.
"XAU/USD Hits Major Demand – Is a Relief Rally Brewing?"🟡 XAU/USD (Gold) – Demand Zone Rejection in Play | Bullish Correction Ahead?
Timeframe: 30-Minute | Date: July 25, 2025
Created by: AllyPipsExpert
Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud, BOS (Break of Structure), Dynamic S/R, Trendlines
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🔍 Technical Analysis & Key Insights:
🔸 1. Market Recap – Distribution & Downtrend Confirmation:
After the Break of Structure (BOS) near 3385, gold confirmed a bearish reversal following the distribution phase at the top resistance zone around 3445–3460.
Bearish momentum was sustained by a descending trendline, paired with a bearish Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) crossover.
🔸 2. Major Zone Tagged – Key Demand Area Tested:
Price has now reached the critical demand block at 3320–3340, a zone that previously initiated bullish impulse on July 18–19.
The current bullish projection (in blue) reflects potential short-term recovery or correction phase, following oversold conditions and historical support strength.
🔸 3. Bullish Reversal Potential – Short-Term Retracement?
The blue arrow reflects a likely bullish retracement toward 3360–3380, aligning with trendline retest and potential Kumo rejection.
Expect sellers to re-enter if price retests former BOS/imbalance zone, creating scalp or swing sell setups on confirmation.
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🔧 Confluences & Technical Highlights:
Confluence Point Description
Demand Zone Strong previous accumulation at 3320–3340
BOS Retest Area Key liquidity level now acting as resistance
Ichimoku Cloud Price below cloud = bearish bias maintained
Descending Trendline Reinforces bearish structure unless broken
Price Action Rejection wick at demand + potential short squeeze
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🎯 Trade Outlook:
🧭 Bias: Short-Term Bullish Rebound → Long-Term Bearish Continuation
🟩 Support: 3320 – 3340
🟥 Resistance: 3360 – 3385 (BOS & Trendline zone)
🔁 Scenario: Bounce → Retest → Continuation lower (unless breakout confirmed)
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📘 Why This Chart Could Be Featured:
✅ Multi-layered Analysis: BOS, zones, cloud, price action, and psychological zones used together.
✅ Forward-Looking: Projects the next logical market reaction instead of just explaining the past.
✅ Clean, Structured, Educational: Layout and visuals guide the viewer through logical trade steps.
✅ Value-Packed: Provides actionable levels and flexible scenarios — helpful to traders of all levels.
GBP USD long as the price approaching the trend line we may have a rejection to the top so this trade is so viable ....
Please note: This is for educational purposes only and not a trading signal. These ideas are shared purely for back testing and to exchange views. The goal is to inspire ideas and encourage discussion. If you notice anything wrong, feel free to share your thoughts. In the end, to learn is to share !
SPX More upside potentialI've revised my previous count based on recent price action. I now see a potential minor Wave 4 (of Intermediate Wave 5) forming around the 6,500 level. This could present a reasonable opportunity to take some % profits, (for the cautious or short term traders) though I recommend being prepared to re-enter, as I still believe we are ultimately headed toward the 6,650–6,720 range before a larger-scale correction sets in.
Taking some profits around 6,500 may be a prudent move, or alternatively, you can continue holding while adjusting your trailing stops accordingly.
Generally and in most cases its best to exhaust you bullish counts in Elliot .
On the right hand side i am showing SPX/ DXY which is typically a more accurate and discernable wave pattern then the SPX alone. FYI
BTCUSD Key Supply Zone Rejection – Bearish Target Mapped BTCUSD Key Supply Zone Rejection – Bearish Target Mapped (Educational Breakdown)
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🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart):
• Range Structure: BTCUSD is currently trading within a well-defined consolidation range between the Resistance Zone ($119,850–$120,591) and the Support Zone ($116,937).
• Volume Profile (VRVP): Volume is noticeably thick near the mid-range, suggesting accumulation/distribution behavior. Price is struggling to break above the value area high near $120K.
• Resistance Rejection: After testing the upper supply zone, price failed to sustain bullish momentum and is showing signs of exhaustion – a possible sign of institutional selling.
• Target Zone: If price rejects this resistance again, a strong move toward the target level of $117,260 is expected. This aligns with:
• Mid-range liquidity sweep
• Low-volume node (LVN) below current price
• Fair Value Gap fill near $117,200–$116,900
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🧩 Key Concepts Highlighted:
• Support & Resistance Mapping
• Volume Profile Readings
• Institutional Order Flow Bias
• Target Projection using Smart Money Concepts
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⚠ Educational Insight:
This setup is a perfect example of how to combine Volume Profile + Price Action to identify liquidity traps and smart entries. Always wait for confirmation near key zones — not every level breaks!
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✅ Trade Plan (Not Financial Advice):
• Watch for bearish engulfing/rejection wick at resistance
• Short entry below $119,000 with SL above $120,600
• Target: $117,260 / Final TP: $116,937 zone
EUR/USD H4 DOWNWARD 🔄 Disrupted EUR/USD 4H Analysis
🟢 Current Context:
Price is currently at 1.17375, slightly below the resistance area (1.17400–1.17500).
Market shows a recent bullish impulse, followed by consolidation within the marked resistance zone.
Projection in the image suggests a double-top pattern forming at resistance, followed by a bearish reversal toward the target demand area (~1.15800–1.16000).
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⚠️ Disruption Points:
1️⃣ Failed Double Top Scenario
Disruption Hypothesis: Instead of forming a clean double top and reversing, price may break above the resistance zone at 1.17500.
Reasoning: Strong bullish momentum and recent higher highs indicate potential for bullish continuation, invalidating the bearish target.
Disrupted Path: Price could break out → retest the resistance as new support → continue toward 1.18000–1.18300 zone.
2️⃣ Mid-Range Liquidity Trap
The current range may act as a liquidity trap:
Smart money could push the price slightly below support (fake breakdown), attract sellers, then reverse sharply upwards.
This would trap retail sellers targeting the 1.15800 zone.
SentinelOne Looks Like Palantir Before The BreakoutIn every market cycle, some high-growth companies are misunderstood—until they aren’t. Palantir (PLTR) was one such stock, dismissed early for its lack of profitability and complex model, only to soar when its AI tools gained traction. Now, SentinelOne (NYSE: S) may be next in line.
🧠 What SentinelOne Does
SentinelOne is a top-tier cybersecurity firm offering an AI-powered endpoint protection platform called Singularity. Like Palantir, SentinelOne has faced criticism for:
Persistent losses
High stock-based compensation (SBC)
A misunderstood business model
Despite this, its technology is sticky, deeply embedded in client IT systems, and well-positioned to ride macro trends in AI and cybersecurity.
📈 Financials: Turning a Corner
While the stock hasn’t moved much in two years, trading around $18, SentinelOne’s fundamentals are improving:
Revenue Growth: Double-digit YoY revenue growth (23%+ in each of the last 10 quarters)
Free Cash Flow: $214 million in the past 12 months (~25% FCF margin)
Gross Margins: High and improving
Operating Expenses: Slowing, creating operating leverage
Adjusted Earnings: Near breakeven, signaling profitability is in reach
These trends mirror Palantir’s path before its breakout, particularly the shift from high OpEx to better margins and rising free cash flow.
💰 Valuation: Still Underrated
SentinelOne is trading at only 6x sales and 27x free cash flow, despite:
Strong 20%+ expected revenue growth
Analyst EPS estimates of ~$0.50 by 2028
A market cap under $6 billion
It’s significantly cheaper than peers like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks—despite having similar growth and margin profiles.
⚠️ Risks to Consider
Fierce Competition: Cybersecurity is a crowded field. SentinelOne will have to keep innovating to stay relevant.
Market Sentiment: As a high-growth name, it may be hit hard in downturns.
Limited TAM vs. PLTR: The cybersecurity market isn’t as vast as AI data platforms.
🚀 Final Take
With strong recurring revenue, improving profitability, and an attractive valuation, SentinelOne looks poised for a re-rating. While it may not match Palantir’s scale or splash, the setup is strikingly similar.
Rating: Strong Buy
Why We See 100%+ Upside In SoFi Over The Next 3 YearsAfter soaring to nearly $28 per share during the SPAC-fueled fintech boom in 2021, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) crashed back to earth, trading under $5 as rising interest rates, regulatory headwinds, and lack of profitability dimmed investor optimism. But the tide has turned.
Over the past year, SoFi has reshaped its business and posted significant growth. Shares are now up 247% since our previous bullish call at $6. With the company now profitable and diversifying revenue, we'd argue there’s still upside ahead.
💼 A Stronger, Diversified Business
SoFi has evolved from a student loan-focused lender into a full-spectrum fintech platform. It now operates across:
Lending: $413M in Q1 revenue
Financial Services (consumer banking): $303M
Technology Platform (B2B): $103M
While lending still makes up the majority, the tech and services segments are growing fast—especially financial services, which doubled revenue YoY and tripled profit. SoFi's white-label platform also gives it a SaaS-like recurring revenue profile.
Q1 results showed:
Revenue: $770M (+33% YoY)
EPS: $0.06, with a $31M revenue beat
This business mix gives SoFi more stability and better scalability than many traditional financial firms.
💰 Valuation: Pricey vs. Banks, Cheap vs. Fintech
Critics point to SoFi’s rich valuation—trading at over 8x sales—as a concern. But when compared to other fintechs like NuBank (12x sales) and Robinhood (28x), SoFi looks much more reasonably priced.
On a forward earnings basis, SoFi trades at ~32x GAAP EPS, and if growth continues, this could drop below 30x. That’s appealing for a company expected to grow:
Revenue: ~25% annually
Net income: ~33% annually
By 2027, analysts project $1B in operating income, double today’s figure. If SoFi maintains current valuation multiples, this alone could double the stock in 3 years.
⚠️ Risks to Watch
Regulatory scrutiny in the financial sector
Cyclicality of consumer lending
Intense competition from firms like Robinhood, Chime, and Coinbase
Despite these challenges, SoFi’s expanding ecosystem and growing brand strength position it well.
✅ Final Take: Still a 'Strong Buy'
With accelerating revenue, expanding margins, and a scalable business model, SoFi has moved beyond its hype-fueled origins and is now a real fintech contender. Even after its rally, its valuation still leaves room for meaningful upside.
Rating: Strong Buy